The Ryen Russillo Podcast
CFP Bracket Breakdown, Unfair Paths, and Format Alternatives With Todd McShay. Plus, How Many NFL Teams Will Have New QBs Next Year?
Mon, 09 Dec 2024
Russillo recaps Week 14 of the NFL and takes a look at which teams will be in the QB market next season (1:07). Then, he’s joined by Todd McShay to share their thoughts on the College Football Playoff bracket, take a look at how this season would have looked under different formats, and predict who will win the whole thing (23:09). Finally, Kyle and Ceruti join for Live Advice (69:12)! How do I explain to a girl why my previous marriage failed? Check us out on YouTube for exclusive clips, livestreams, and more at https://www.youtube.com/@RyenRussilloPodcast The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Host: Ryen Russillo Guest: Todd McShay Producers: Steve Ceruti, Kyle Crichton, and Mike Wargon Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Chapter 1: What happened in NFL Week 14?
We've got McShay, part of our live broadcast on YouTube, but it's the same segment here for the podcast. The college football brackets are out, and we'll sift through it and also take a look at the other formats of postseason football, and if those would have actually made more sense. Doesn't mean I'm not going to enjoy the playoffs. I feel like I have to say that a lot. NFL Week 14.
All right, the Bills lose. Does it mean anything? Let's take a look at the other. I don't want to worry about this team tier. Also, Kansas City, another win, a one-score win. We've been there before. Dominant. throughout history now for about a decade in that division and also pivot that into a Bryce Young Sunday that I enjoyed once again.
How many teams are definitively going to be changing quarterbacks this offseason? And if that list gets long, where are the quarterbacks coming from? And we've got a great live advice where both Kyle was great and Cerruti may have invented the best TV show that we've never seen. Okay, week 14, I want to start with Buffalo losing in Los Angeles.
So the Rams put up all sorts of offense, 457 yards of it. They start 10 of 11 on third downs. They finish 11 of 15 on third downs with a fourth down conversion in there. Stafford has a 96.7 QBR out of 100 for the game. Historically, it's one of the best games he's ever had. And I think it's also important to point this out, though, with the Bills losing at LA. The Rams are kind of good.
One and four start, six and two on their last eight. And they've... Figured it out because the beginning of the year, whether it was the receiver injury, not knowing the defensive setup, and then the O-line shuffle and Stafford getting smashed all over the place. This is a remarkable job by Sean McVay in figuring this thing out in just another year where it's like, appreciate Stafford.
So we could, because Buffalo's a Super Bowl contender, obviously, we could sit here on a Monday and ask some questions about the Bills' defense. They are 17th in opposing yards. per play allowed. So I think that's just a really important stat. Kind of cuts through it like each play, what does the other team do? That's the lowest of any of the Super Bowl contenders.
It's actually slightly behind Baltimore, but it's 5.4 versus 5.5 for Buffalo. So some of the margins become really thin here. Maybe you don't think Baltimore is a Super Bowl contender with that pass defense that we've talked about and all the penalties and the issues with Tucker as a kicker. I still think they are. There you go. Look, Detroit's 14th in opposing yards per play allowed.
So if you look at the Bills' defense, you could say, okay, what's good out of this group? Well, they're ninth against the pass, which I think is important because when you play the Bills, you have to keep up with Josh Allen, so you have to throw the football.
So I think this is one of the times, the rare times, where some of the non-adjusted stats are pretty telling because you can just look at the old school, hey, how many passing yards do you give up? And knowing that all these other teams are trying to keep up with you, the fact that the Bills are top 10 still is a good sign.
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Chapter 2: How many NFL teams will change quarterbacks this offseason?
Like, how are you running all of this back when if he were special still or just below special, I'd understand it. But he's not. He's not, and I don't know how you'd run it all back. Cleveland, we know what the deal is. It's all about money. The dead cap hit before June 1st is like 80 plus million. They could do it after June 1st and carry it for two years.
I wouldn't rule out anything in Cleveland, even though we've been obsessing over what the dollar amount would mean for moving on from Deshaun Watson after a fully guaranteed contract. But that might not be a definitive yes. Yes is actually how it's pronounced. Jacksonville is a no. Tennessee is a yes. Will Levis had a throw. Man. Two routes to the left. The back of the end zone is covered.
The front of the end zone is wide open. The original read was the right side, so you can understand him shifting over and going through the progressions and not seeing the underneath guy. The problem is that it's the same stuff we saw in college. It's the same thing you've seen from Will Levis. He just doesn't see it. And I think it's time to turn the page. Vegas is a yes.
They were on Desmond Ritter yesterday. The Giants are a yes. Drew Locke, Tommy Cutlets here. Atlanta. Kirk is definitely struggling, but his deal was basically a two-year deal, $100 million guaranteed in those first two. And... The reason why I think even with Penix and the draft pick they spent on him, and as good as he looked in limited time, you probably bring him back financially.
And I'll get to why that reason makes, the reasoning behind it is really the way I should say it. Minnesota, this isn't even, I know there were some questions about Darnold and was it wearing off a little? I don't even know why you would mess with it. Just pay the guy. Like, look around. And Darnold has been really, really clean after kind of a disastrous game against Jacksonville.
The Colts, I don't see it. I don't think they see it. I know some people think it's been better. I think there's a real tell with how teams feel about their quarterbacks, what they let them do in the red zone.
And now some of it can be a little misleading because if you look at Jalen Hurts' pass attempts in the red zone, well, the number's just going to be lower because they're so good at running the football and they can just convert it to goal line every single time.
So that can be, you know, look, Richardson's somebody they'd like to run a little bit more, but I don't know that they trust him to throw inside the 20 at all. But he's played 13 games, so you probably have to run it back. So the Colts might not be a definitive QB change team here. Pittsburgh depends on what the options are. Carolina, like I said, I think it's turned into a no.
New Orleans with Carr, it's a bit like the Kirk Cousins conversation that we had where his number was restructured. which means that there's just some math on this where it would be a dead cap hit of $50 million in 2025. But remember, the cap right now is $255 million. It's up $47 million since 2022. So say the cap is like $275 million.
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Chapter 3: What are the insights on the College Football Playoff bracket?
I guess Penn State, Indiana's schedule is a lot different than some other team's schedule. And even in the SEC, like Texas' schedule compared to Alabama's schedule and Georgia's schedule, different animals. And so I'm not here to explain all the different theories and all the different suggestions that have been made.
But, you know, I do think that we're heading towards in the next several years a massive change to try to let's let's get it more regional. Let's let's try to equal things out and let's create more of a balanced playing field during the regular season. So to avoid a lot of this nonsense.
Okay, I want to just for the exercise part of this, look at the previous systems and ask like, okay, would you have liked this? So if it were the BCS, well, hell, if it was the 40s, we would just, everything would be over and we'd have like six different national champions. If we had the BCS, it would be Oregon, Georgia. Would you be okay with that? Would you rather that today than this?
No. I can't unsee. Two things I can't unsee when I look at this. I'm staring at the seedings and the games. I can't unsee Arizona State at four with a bye and Boise State at three with a bye. I can't unsee that, and that frustrates me. But what I also can't unsee in a real positive manner is, holy shit, We get Tennessee, Ohio State in two weeks. We get Clemson, Texas in two weeks.
We get in-state Indiana, Notre Dame, and kind of a weird game. I think Cignetti's going to cause some problems for Indiana, and to a lesser extent, SMU, Penn State. And then nine days later, New Year's right. You know, New Year's Eve and New Year's. We've got we've got Georgia facing off of the winner of Notre Dame. It could be Georgia. Notre Dame could be Boise State.
Wait, were you were you saying you think Signetti potentially causes some problems for Notre Dame? Right.
Yeah. I mean, I could I could see it being a frustrating game. I could.
But
I do too. And so, but my point is, and knowing like nine, 10 days later, we've got four more games, Oregon versus Ohio state or Tennessee. Awesome. Arizona state versus Texas. Interesting. Penn state versus Boise state. Very interesting. Potentially Notre Dame versus Georgia. Awesome. And then we're not even done. Then we get the semifinals.
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