Ray Dalio: How to Survive the Coming Civil War and Plot to Use Debt and CBDCs to Enslave You
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What is the cycle of civilizations and how does it relate to the U.S.?
Ray Dalio, thank you very much. We spoke last year in exactly this place and you outlined in part the cycle that you see in civilizations vying for supremacy of the world. And not everyone, I think, kind of bought into your views on this and you were derided as You know what Jeremiah is scaring people and everything a year later You have a new summary of ideas that you've been Formulating for a long time out this week and about 18 people have sent it to me And so I think we've reached a moment where people are ready to hear what you're saying. So if you wouldn't mind Outlining in whatever detail you like the cycle that you see the countries go through and where our country the u.s. Is in that cycle Gladly
Yeah, so there's a cycle, there are orders, there are systems, right? So there's a monetary order. How does the economy work? You put in money, creates credit. People with credit do things with that. They borrow. If they can earn enough money to pay back, the system works well. They create productivity. They create opportunities, the capital markets and so on. That's the monetary system. And the way that works in the cycle is that when there's no debt, such as in 1945, we start a new monetary order. There's no debt, there's a system, and it builds up over a period of time. And it's a mechanics that when incomes, when debt service payments rise relative to incomes, it squeezes out other spending the way it would do for you as an individual, the way it would do for companies, except governments can print money, but that squeezes out spending.
And that becomes a problem, and then you also have a supply-demand problem. So when you have a new monetary system, which the United States had the new monetary system, and the dollar was the world's reserve currency, then you can sell a lot more of the debt. So there's a supply and a demand, right? And so when that builds up and everybody's one man's debts or another man's assets, and they build up holding a lot of dollars in nominated debt, and then they sell a lot more debt, Then there's a mechanics of that supply demand.
Why does Ray Dalio believe gold always survives system failures?
And then when you have politics and world politics, geopolitics enter into it, that monetary system is more at risk for those reasons. We'll get into that. But the first force of these five forces is the mechanics of this process, which is the monetary system. The second is there's a domestic political order. All countries have an order, a system, and all these orders change and they evolve. And of course, that is connected to the economic system. And so when you get large wealth and values differences, and there's a sense that the system isn't working for them, and there's greater polarity. There's the emergence of populism, like in the 30s, you know, the left and the right. And that populism gets to the point that there are irreconcilable differences.
In other words, the lack of willingness to compromise, the lack of willingness to accept loss, losing one's vote and so on, but a fight and win for me at all costs. Like in the 30s, four democracies chose to be autocracies because the polarity was so great and the willingness to go along with that democracy system ceased to exist. So that dynamic has happened throughout history. And then the third is the geopolitical order, how countries work relative to each other. What's the system? And after World War II, we created a system, a multilateral system, in which it was in some ways naive, but it was very different than existed before in that by being multilateral, having United Nations, a World Trade Organization, a World Health Organization, a World Court,
and all of those, the idea of being representative and they would make decisions in a certain rule-based system was the path. And, of course, the problem of that is that any system has to have its enforcement. And if the system as a whole, a multilateral system, is not consistent with the interests
What is the difference between wealth and money according to Ray Dalio?
of those who were the most powerful, you know, power rules. And so you have the dynamic of the breaking down of that order, right?
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
What is the cycle of civilizations and how does it relate to the U.S.?
0:00–2:24
2
Why does Ray Dalio believe gold always survives system failures?
2:24–4:36
3
What is the difference between wealth and money according to Ray Dalio?
4:36–5:05
4
Should we be worried about the potential for civil war in America?
5:05–5:12
5
Who actually controls the money in the current economic system?
5:12–29:00
6
What are the implications of a central bank digital currency?
29:00–31:00
7
What steps can individuals take to prepare for economic changes?
31:00–1:03:08
Speakers
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