WAR UPDATE: Military Insider Gives Terrifying Prediction & Reveals How Unprepared America Truly Is
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How is Russia’s multi‑phase strategy shaping the war in Ukraine?
Mr. Jeremy, thank you very much for doing this. So in the United States, I think most people, to the extent they're paying attention, are watching what's happening in Iran and have a sense that what's happening between Russia and NATO, Ukraine, the United States, the festering war in Eastern Europe is kind of a stalemate and nothing really is happening there. I don't know if that's true. Assess what you think is happening between Russia and Ukraine and its proxies right now.
Yeah, I think you're right. I don't think it is true, Tucker. I think that the general sense in the West is that you'll hear from some people that Russia is losing on the battlefield and that the Russian economy is about to fall apart. I mean, I've heard it time and time again, and there's no evidence to support either of those things. The battlefield issue is poorly understood, and I think the reason is that people don't understand Russia's motivations and they don't understand what the strategy is. In an article I wrote recently on the coming war with Russia, I said that Clausewitz, who was the great political philosopher of war, said that the most important decision that a military man and a politician can make is to understand the nature of the war.
And I don't think that the West has understood the nature of the war with Russia, nor, for that matter, with Iran. What they haven't understood with Russia is that this is, as far as Russia is concerned, is an existential war. You know, they are fighting to make sure that Russia is preserved. And when you get people like Kayakalas saying that Russia must be broken up, who can blame them? I think, have we understood that? I think that would be a start. Unfortunately, we're approaching the war, it seems to me, as a negotiation, a negotiation with arms. You know, if we increase a bit of pressure on Russia, then they'll eventually come back to the... negotiating table. What they've missed, though, is that Russia, I think, has a clear strategy.
And I can't be sure about it. I'm not in the Russian general staff, but I think it's got about five key phases. I mean, we know that the run-up to the special military operation, Tucker, was... it was clear that there were so many warnings going back as far as 1996. And yet, unfortunately, we've ignored them all, notwithstanding the warnings not only came from Russia, but from some of our very best strategic thinkers, from George Keenan back as far as 1996 and from John Mearsheimer in 2014. But when you get to the start of the war, then it seemed to me as the war kicked off, and I have to say, I did not see the war coming. I was involved in the offshore energy sector. But as I got to understand it, then the first thing that became obvious to me that this was not a war to, or a special military operation to invade Ukraine.
And the answer, the reason was simpler. There weren't enough troops. You know, Ukraine is about the size of half of Europe. And you're not going to do that with 190,000 troops. I cannot for a moment think that the Russian general staff advised Putin that they had enough troops to invade Ukraine. This was always about the Donbass. And I think the first phase of the strategy was really the use of military force to support a diplomatic engagement. And indeed, that diplomatic engagement actually went quite well. The Russians had opened negotiations with the Ukrainians after day one. And as we arrived in March, they were ready to sign, as both sides were. An agreement which would have stopped the war. It was no NATO, neutrality for Ukraine, self-determination for the Donbass.
But that was ready to sign and it would have been signed, I'm almost certain, if it hadn't been for Boris Johnson. no doubt with Biden's support, actually going across and persuading Zelensky to fight Russia and that he would have all the support he needed. So that's phase one. I think at phase two, when it becomes clear to Russia that they are in a going to have to fight um and are likely to have to fight nato because of what they're hearing what you then see is uh what i would call militarist a withdrawal in contact so essentially what the russians were doing were recognizing that actually the kiev um attack and and the actions in the donbass uh were although diplomatic they would now need to withdraw to a line and what they did was they withdrew back to what's known as the sorry beckon line
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