Bitcoin just triggered the signal that has marked every previous bear market bottom — half of all circulating BTC supply (roughly 10.5 million coins) is now trading at a loss per Glassnode/K33 Research, the first time this has happened since the late 2022 cycle low. But realized losses over the last 30 days sit at just 187,000 BTC versus 1.2 million after the FTX collapse, meaning capitulation hasn't actually hit yet. Meanwhile, Japan just delivered the biggest bullish policy shift of 2026 — reclassifying crypto as financial products, slashing the tax rate from 55% to 20%, and opening the door to spot crypto ETFs. Add Wall Street dumping $10.8 billion of tech stocks last week (largest tech outflow ever recorded), SoftBank trying to borrow $6 billion against its OpenAI stake just to keep funding OpenAI, Warren's Hail Mary to delay tomorrow's $75B SpaceX IPO, and the historical reality that the 10 biggest IPOs in history dropped 35% in their first six months — and today's setup may be the cleanest historic bottom signal we've seen in three years. We break down whether the supply-in-loss signal actually holds, why capitulation hasn't fully hit yet, what Japan's bombshell means for the bull case, and which catalysts could trigger the real cycle bottom before $50K comes into play. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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