Forecasting: How to Map the Future

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Recorded24 Jul 2017

Publisherpodcasts.files.bbci.co.uk ↗

Handlerec:18466465

Show notes

Why do so many economic and business forecasts fail to correctly map the future? Adam Shaw asks why so many recessions take us by surprise and why the failure of certain forecasts should be a cause of celebration, not despair. He examines the role of complexity and groupthink and how technological advance can scupper the best laid forecasts. Do we, as consumers, invest too much faith in forecasts? And is there anything forecasters can do to ensure their pronouncements are more reliable? Producer: Rosamund Jones (Image: Adam Shaw at a pool table. Credit: BBC)

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