Thoughts on the Market
Episodes
Michael Zezas: U.S.-China Trade: What Happens in 2020?
11 Dec 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Although some reports have suggested progress on a phase one deal, markets are still seeking a clear signal forward on trade—and...
Mike Wilson: The Virtuous Circle of Excess Liquidity
09 Dec 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Central banks seem likely to continue their balance sheet expansion into next year, driving lower volatility, more cash ...
Andrew Sheets: 2020 Playbook: Analyzing the Bear Case
06 Dec 2019
Contributed by Lukas
In this special two part bull/bear series, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets shares insight on the catalysts that could hamper market returns...
Michael Zezas: How Do Close U.S. Elections Affect Markets?
04 Dec 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, On average, election-year market performance varies by about 9% for elections that are narrow contests vs. elections with a clear ...
Mike Wilson: A Volatility Reprieve
02 Dec 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Whether it's called quantitative easing or not, the recent expansion in central bank balance sheets is having a profound...
Michael Zezas: Optimism Over the U.S.-EU Auto Tariffs?
27 Nov 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, With a key deadline for U.S. tariffs on EU autos now past, could European stocks outperform in 2020? Head of Public Policy Mi...
Mike Wilson: Global Reflation: To Be or Not to Be?
25 Nov 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On this episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains why global reflation may be back—and could be a powerful longer-term theme for portfo...
Andrew Sheets: Commodities Outlook 2020: Too Much of Everything?
22 Nov 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On this episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says oversupply may spell headwinds for commodities in 2020 but there are exceptions.
Michael Zezas: The 2020 Election: 4 Sectors to Watch
20 Nov 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On this episode, Head of Public Policy Michael Zezas says performance in four key sectors could be a bellwether for how investors view the outcome of ...
Andrew Sheets: As Global Growth Improves, What to Watch
18 Nov 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On this episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says global growth should pick up in 2020, but unevenly. The key for investors will be ide...
Andrew Sheets: Will Markets See End-of-Year Holiday Cheer?
15 Nov 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On this episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets analyzes the historical phenomenon of the “end-of-year equities rally.” Will 2019...
Michael Zezas: The Power of Unified Government
13 Nov 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On this episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas says a potential boost to the U.S. economy has less to do with political parties than it doe...
Mike Wilson: The Return of the Secular Bull Market?
11 Nov 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On this episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson shares three reasons why equities markets have rallied over the past few months… and where the...
Andrew Sheets: A Tough Road Ahead for the 60/40 Portfolio?
08 Nov 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On this episode, Chief-Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets continues his discussion on the 10-year outlook for the U.S. and Europe—and identifies t...
Michael Zezas: The 2020 Election Outlook for Investors
07 Nov 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On this episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas says one thing has become clear as we approach 2020: Investors need to plan today for market...
Special Episode: Weighing a Global Growth Recovery
07 Nov 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On this episode, special guest Chetan Ahya, the firm’s Chief Global Economist, says a global growth recovery could be possible in 2020… assuming t...
Mike Wilson: Amid New Highs, Uncertainty Remains
04 Nov 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On this episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says the jury may be out on whether we’re at a trough for the U.S. economy, but two internatio...
Andrew Sheets: The Cost of Easy Policy: A 10 Year Outlook
01 Nov 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets takes a look at expected market returns over the next decade and explains how current p...
Michael Zezas: How Do Markets View Major Policy Proposals? (Replay)
30 Oct 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas takes a look at transformative policy proposals by 2020 Presidential candidates. How coul...
Mike Wilson: Are U.S. Equities Defying Gravity?
28 Oct 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s episode, a curious paradox: Although major indices are making new highs, many defensive stocks are leading the pack. Chief Investment Off...
Andrew Sheets: Can Sentiment Alone Drive Markets Higher?
25 Oct 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Optimism in markets has risen significantly over the past three weeks. But Chief-Across Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets asks, “Is...
Michael Zezas: Could “Phase One” Be the Turning Point?
23 Oct 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On this episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas explains why a global growth rebound could largely hinge on trade negotiations ahead of the ...
Mike Wilson: 5 Pockets of Opportunity for Equities Investors
21 Oct 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says investors may want to steer clear of expensive growth stocks in favor of some defensive ...
Andrew Sheets: One Market We Feel Good About
18 Oct 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s episode, Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets highlights the one market in which the currency, government bonds and equities m...
Michael Zezas: A “Durable Pause” on U.S.-China Trade Tensions?
16 Oct 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s episode, Head of Public Policy Michael Zezas says unlike prior tariff pauses, the “phase one” agreement could have durability. Howeve...
Mike Wilson: How Will the “Phase One” Trade Deal Impact Earnings?
14 Oct 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says the U.S.-China trade deal is a step in the right direction, but the real story is still ...
Andrew Sheets: Is the Dollar Losing It’s Safe Haven Status?
11 Oct 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains how three of the dollar’s most attractive qualities could be shifting right ...
Michael Zezas: The Key Variable in U.S.-China Trade Talks
09 Oct 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas says when it comes to trade, movement toward a meaningful compromise will likely come dow...
Mike Wilson: An Unsatisfying Market for Bulls and Bears?
07 Oct 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says both bulls and bears were likely a bit frustrated trying to trade last week's sell-off...
Andrew Sheets: The 3 Most Powerful Market Indicators?
04 Oct 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says despite the myriad models used to assess the direction of markets, three simple in...
Michael Zezas: U.S.-China Trade: The Outlook for Fall
02 Oct 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, A number of trade-related events on the fall calendar could mean progress—or an escalation—on the trade impasse. Head of U.S. ...
Special Series: U.S. Housing Faces a Generational Turning Point
01 Oct 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On this special episode, Equity Analyst Richard Hill examines the coming seismic shift for investors as Baby Boomers pass the housing baton to Millenn...
Mike Wilson: Are Markets Rethinking Pricey Growth Stocks?
30 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains why markets may be having a change of heart on expensive—and sometimes unprofita...
Andrew Sheets: A Tale of Two Oil Price Spikes
27 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says oil prices tend to spike for two very different reasons and the distinction for ...
Michael Zezas: How Do Markets View Major Policy Proposals?
25 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas takes a look at transformative policy proposals by 2020 Presidential candidates. How coul...
Special Series: Is NextGen Reinventing the Banking Experience?
24 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On this special episode, Betsy Graseck, global head of banking research, explains how Millennials and Gen Z are reshaping the financial industry in th...
Mike Wilson: Looking Toward Q3 Earnings
23 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, investors are watching for progress on trade and signs of future Fed policy. But according to Chief Investment Officer Mike Wils...
Andrew Sheets: Are Lower Interest Rates Always Beneficial?
20 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says although lower interest rates help boost economic activity, the full impact is mor...
Michael Zezas: Investors Look for Progress on U.S-China Trade
18 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas says a potential improvement in some key U.S. economic indicators will need real progre...
Special Series: Which Way is U.S. Spending Trending?
17 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Which generations spend more: Boomers or Millennials/Gen Z? On this special episode, equity analyst Lauren Cassel takes a look at which sectors stand ...
Mike Wilson: Value Stocks Have Their Moment
16 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson dives into last week’s historic reversal between value and growth stocks. Can the value r...
Andrew Sheets: Is There a Downside to Cutting Interest Rates?
13 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets asks the timely question, “If lower interest rates stimulate growth, why wouldn’t...
Special Series: From Baby Boom to Youth Boom
10 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Is America’s next heyday ahead? On this special episode, Chief U.S. Economist Ellen Zentner explains why America’s youth may be set to power U.S. ...
Mike Wilson: Home on the Range Bound?
09 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today's podcast, Investors may be feeling some déjà vu as upbeat news on trade drives a new rally. Could markets break out this time or is anothe...
Andrew Sheets: What Happens When the Price Isn’t Right?
06 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says as global growth weakens, investors tend to focus on the most desirable companie...
Michael Zezas: Pondering a World of Unresolved Trade Issues
04 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas takes a moment to consider the long-term effects regardless of whether or not ...
Mike Wilson: New Data Sends Concerning Signs for U.S. Stocks
03 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today's podcast, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says a popular narrative forecasted a rebound for the second half of 2019. How...
Andrew Sheets: Title: Can Central Banks Cure Market Woes?
30 Aug 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets examines central bank actions to boost markets and the negative effects—intended or...
Michael Zezas: U.S.-China Trade and “The Prisoner’s Dilemma” (Replay)
28 Aug 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas explains why a key principle of game theory could help investors navigate markets amid ...
Mike Wilson: On Recession Risks, Perspective Matters
26 Aug 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, would stock markets be full steam ahead with a healthy dose of Fed rate cuts or a lack of concerns over trade? Chief Investment ...
Andrew Sheets: All Hail the U.S. Consumer?
23 Aug 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets dives into a key debate on the U.S. economy: How could the risk of recession be risin...
Michael Zezas: Time to Rethink Allocations?
21 Aug 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast: Amid a bond rally and stock volatility, August has been quite a ride. How should investors think about their allocations? Analys...
Mike Wilson: Back Next Week
19 Aug 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Mike Wilson is off this week. Please check back Wednesday for more Thoughts on the Market.
Andrew Sheets: The Yield Curve Inverts for a Reason
16 Aug 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Chief Across-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets shares three takeaways from this week’s inversion of the yield curve, historically...
Michael Zezas: The Story Behind Falling Bond Yields
14 Aug 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Head of U.S. Public Policy and Municipal Strategy Michael Zezas explains how the challenges facing U.S. farmers can provide insi...
Mike Wilson: Navigating the Q3 Dog Days
12 Aug 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson identifies several catalysts that could drive increased Q3 volatility. Are markets still fa...
Andrew Sheets: Can Central Banks Keep Up with Market Expectations?
09 Aug 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets looks at how the expectations markets are placing on central banks, as much...
Michael Zezas: The Potential Impact of Lasting Tariffs
07 Aug 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On this episode, Head of Public Policy Research Michael Zezas walks investors through the current impasse on U.S.-China trade. How might new tariffs h...
Mike Wilson: Markets Face a “Sell the News” Moment
05 Aug 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson asks whether the Fed rate cut and reemergence of trade tensions rattled mark...
Andrew Sheets: The Fed’s Great Expectations Quandary
02 Aug 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today's podcast, Markets met the Fed rate cut with a collective shrug. Could investor expectations make it harder for the Fed to succeed? Chief Cro...
Michael Zezas: Trade Uncertainty and Corporate Confidence
31 Jul 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas examines how continued trade policy uncertainty is weighing on corporate confidence and...
Mike Wilson: Will the Fed Surprise on a Rate Cut?
29 Jul 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson gauges the reaction to a potential Wednesday Fed rate cut. Have markets already priced in a...
Special: Access & Opportunity Preview
26 Jul 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Morgan Stanley's Carla Harris talks with Charles Hudson, founder and Managing Partner at Precursor Ventures, a seed-stage investor bringing ...
Michael Zezas: The Fed Rate Cut Debate for Bond Investors
24 Jul 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Head of Public Policy and Municipal Strategy Michael Zezas considers the debate between the consensus view of a potential 2...
Mike Wilson: Weighing a Potential Fed Rate Cut
22 Jul 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says what matters for markets now isn't how much the Fed or other central banks could cut—...
Andrew Sheets: 3 Consensus Views Worth Questioning
19 Jul 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Chief Cross-asset Strategist Andrew Sheets digs into three key debates around central bank policy expectations, valuations and i...
Michael Zezas: 2020 Election: How Likely Is Medicare-for-All?
17 Jul 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Head of U.S. Public Policy research Michael Zezas asks “Would a Democratic presidential win mean the end of the road for priva...
Mike Wilson: For the S&P 500, Breaking Out Is Hard to Do
15 Jul 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says a sustained breakout above 3,000 has eluded the S&P 500. Will the Fed’s potentia...
Andrew Sheets: A Second (and Third) Opinion for Equity Markets
12 Jul 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On this episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets examines the models for stock performance, and how they are all leading to a similar concl...
Michael Zezas: Healthcare Reform - Here We Go Again?
10 Jul 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, as the 2020 Election nears, healthcare reform is a central debate once again. Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas shares po...
Mike Wilson: 3 Summer Surprises Investors Could Be Missing
08 Jul 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says markets are typically savvy on how and when to price news events. But are markets over...
Andrew Sheets: A Narrow Path
05 Jul 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says that while conditions could line up for market success, the variables that ...
Michael Zezas: How Markets View the Pause on Trade Tariffs
03 Jul 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas says a pause on trade tariffs should be good news for markets and growth, but is the pa...
Mike Wilson: A G20 Trade Truce?
01 Jul 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, markets are cheering this weekend’s pause on U.S.-China trade tensions. But is the potential progress enough to extend the lon...
Andrew Sheets: What to Watch from the G20
28 Jun 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets shares three possible trade outcomes from the G20—and how markets may react to a pa...
Michael Zezas: Indirect Impacts
26 Jun 2019
Contributed by Lukas
In today’s podcast, Head of U.S. Public Policy strategy Michael Zezas discusses how the great debate playing out in markets around trade is about mo...
Mike Wilson: Are Markets Putting Stock in Trade?
24 Jun 2019
Contributed by Lukas
With corporate confidence softening, could movement on U.S.-China trade at the G20 be the catalyst for growth in the second half of the year? Chief In...
Andrew Sheets: Let’s Say the Fed Cuts Rates in July…
21 Jun 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Morgan Stanley's economics team now expects the Fed to cut interest rates by half a percent possibly as soon as July. On today’s podcast, Chief Cros...
Michael Zezas: Three Possible Trade Paths from the G20
19 Jun 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Head of U.S. Public Policy strategy Michael Zezas says three likely U.S.-China trade scenarios will come out of the G20. But a t...
Mike Wilson: How Confident Are U.S. Businesses in the Economy?
17 Jun 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson shares a readout on the firm’s proprietary Business Conditions Index. Are the data soften...
Andrew Sheets: The Dangers of Cheering for Weaker Data
14 Jun 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Chief Cross-asset Strategist Andrew Sheets provides a bit of historical perspective on the logic of rooting for weaker data and ...
Michael Zezas: Why ‘Slowbalization’ May Be Feeding Trade Tensions
12 Jun 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas says that independent of current trade concerns, the trend toward globalized supply chains is fading, as comp...
Mike Wilson: Why Trade Tensions Are Only Part of the Story
10 Jun 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Investors and media have been hyper-focused on trade and Fed policymaking. But according to Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson, some key economic da...
Andrew Sheets: For Markets, Signs, Signs, Everywhere Signs
07 Jun 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Chief Cross-asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says that while discussion of a Fed rate cut may have helped markets rebound, several...
Michael Zezas: U.S.-Mexico Trade Adds to Recession Risks
05 Jun 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas says further escalation of trade tensions could come with a cost. Are th...
Mike Wilson: U.S. Equities: How Much Correction is Ahead?
03 Jun 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s TOTM, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says trade tensions may be rattling markets, but the fundamentals are the real culpr...
Andrew Sheets: Fed to the Rescue? Maybe Not.
31 May 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets examines the notion that the Fed stands willing and able to reduce interest rates and...
Michael Zezas: U.S.-China Trade and “The Prisoner’s Dilemma”
29 May 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas explains why a key principle of game theory could help investors navigate markets amid ...
Mike Wilson: Are U.S. Economic Indicators Flashing Yellow?
27 May 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today’s podcast, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says although some investors may assume recent equities volatility is based on trade worrie...