Thoughts on the Market

Special Episode, Part 2: How Much Stimulus Is Enough?

23 Apr 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Congress has readied more funds to support U.S. businesses and households in order to shorten the pandemic-induced downturn. How far will they go? Chi...

Special Episode: How Much Stimulus Is Enough?

22 Apr 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Congress has readied more funds to support U.S. businesses and households in order to shorten the pandemic-induced downturn. How far will they go? Chi...

Mike Wilson: Equities Position for America’s Grand Reopening

20 Apr 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Although it remains to be seen how fast the U.S. can “re-open,” in the near term, markets may be betting on an economy that will normalize faster ...

Andrew Sheets: Why OPEC May Be Rethinking Its Strategy

17 Apr 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The steep decline in oil prices is a fascinating story of demand, supply and even game theory. But Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says tha...

Reza Moghadam: Emerging-Market Economies Prepare for COVID-19

16 Apr 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Emerging markets recovered quickly from the 2008 financial crisis, but could a more challenging backdrop in 2020 mean a different outcome this time? I...

Michael Zezas: Has the Fed Ignited Muni Bond Markets?

15 Apr 2020

Contributed by Lukas

For investors in municipal bonds, the Fed’s recent creation of the Municipal Liquidity Facility and Mainstreet Lending Facility are a key positive. ...

Special Episode, Part 2: Coronavirus - Building Models to Rebuild Economies

14 Apr 2020

Contributed by Lukas

When do we return to work? The market reaction? The drug pipeline? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Head Biotech Equity Analyst Matthew ...

Mike Wilson: U.S. Markets React to Fed Moves

13 Apr 2020

Contributed by Lukas

If there is one lesson to be learned from the financial repression era it's that when risk premium appears, investors may want to make moves before it...

Special Episode: Coronavirus – Building Models to Rebuild Economies

09 Apr 2020

Contributed by Lukas

How do you track a virus, a global economy and a road to recovery? On this special episode, an engaging conversation with our Chief Cross-Asset Strate...

Michael Zezas: Another Dose of Fiscal Stimulus?

08 Apr 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The U.S. Congress has been debating ways to flatten another worrying curve: the sliding economic growth curve. What form could additional fiscal stimu...

Mike Wilson: What Are Markets Thinking?

06 Apr 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Asset prices often reflect the obvious before it becomes obvious. So the question for investors now is, "What is the market thinking about that's not ...

Andrew Sheets: Optimism for Credit Markets

03 Apr 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Even as economic and public health data get worse, recent changes in three key factors make global credit markets an attractive option. Our Chief Cros...

Michael Zezas: What Does the CARES Act Buy?

01 Apr 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The $2 trillion CARES Act includes a variety of provisions that will help preserve the financial health of state and local governments, hospitals and ...

Mike Wilson: U.S. Equities - Is the Worst Behind Us?

30 Mar 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Although economic and earnings data could be gloomy over the next month, have equity markets already discounted the bad news? Detailed analysis from C...

Andrew Sheets: The Critical Calls of Financial Referees

27 Mar 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Governments and central banks face two issues: A flight to liquidity and a global economy that showed signs of fatigue even before the pandemic. For i...

Special Episode: Can $2 Trillion Flatten the Unemployment Curve?

26 Mar 2020

Contributed by Lukas

As a record 3.28 million workers file for unemployment, our Chief U.S. Economist and Chief U.S. Public Policy researcher weigh potential effects from ...

Michael Zezas: Sizing Up the Stimulus Package

25 Mar 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Congressional leaders have reached a deal on a $2 trillion stimulus bill to deal with fallout from the coronavirus crisis. Will it work? Two criteria ...

Mike Wilson: The Underlying Reasons for Recession

23 Mar 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Mike Wilson looks beyond the coronavirus outbreak at the two key conditions which have made the markets vulnerable to a recession.

Andrew Sheets: First, Improve on Uncertainty

20 Mar 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On this episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says that the 4%+ swings in equities markets have made investors skeptical about jumping b...

Andrew Sheets: Why We Think Risk/Reward Is Improving

19 Mar 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Although the sell-off may not be over and the global economy has tough days ahead, a growing number of factors suggest that risk/reward in markets may...

Special Episode: Imagining the Shape of Recovery

18 Mar 2020

Contributed by Lukas

As central banks and governments weigh a litany of stimulus efforts, what could the journey to economic recovery look like? Our Chief U.S. Economist a...

Michael Zezas: Inside the Municipal Bond Liquidity Trap

17 Mar 2020

Contributed by Lukas

When markets get volatile, strange things start to happen in markets you might not expect. That's both a sign of stress, and in some cases, a sign of ...

Mike Wilson: The End of The Cyclical Bear Market?

16 Mar 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Just three months ago, market expectations were likely overoptimistic. That's how tops are made. Today, they are maybe too pessimistic… and that's h...

Andrew Sheets: The Comfort of Market Patterns

13 Mar 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Although current market swings suggest that we are in serious, unpredictable times, a look through market history may reveal where we’re headed next...

Michael Zezas: Oil Exporter Tensions Add to Market Worries

11 Mar 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The dual challenges of the coronavirus and the collapse of the OPEC plus arrangement intensifies the need for a fiscal response from Washington. Head ...

Special Episode: The Road Ahead

10 Mar 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Investors reacted strongly as oil prices and coronavirus worries disrupted markets. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Chief U.S. Economis...

Mike Wilson: Revisiting the Rolling Bear Market

09 Mar 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The recent correction in equity markets suggests that the fourth quarter rally in 2019 may have been a false breakout—and the rolling bear has unfin...

Andrew Sheets: Patience as an Investing Virtue

06 Mar 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Two competing forces—hopes for further central bank moves vs. coronavirus uncertainty—are driving a notable rise in volatility. What signal should...

Michael Zezas: Lessons from Super Tuesday

04 Mar 2020

Contributed by Lukas

From an investment standpoint, are there lessons to be learned from Joe Biden’s strong showing on Super Tuesday? Yes, but not the ones you migh...

Special Episode: A Policy Fix Isn’t Easy

03 Mar 2020

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. stocks fell Tuesday despite a half point rate cut by the Fed. Is conventional wisdom wrong that lower interest rates and central bank support are...

Andrew Sheets: Coronavirus: Are Markets Overreacting?

27 Feb 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Global equity markets have endured several days of losses as worries over the coronavirus continue. The question for many investors is “What to do n...

Special Episode: Coronavirus as Catalyst

26 Feb 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Markets have spent the week increasingly concerned about the coronavirus, but Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says there’s a lot more going on ...

Michael Zezas: Medicare for All… for Investors

26 Feb 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Senator Bernie Sanders’ recent primary wins are causing some to debate the impact of potential new health care reform on markets. Head of ...

Mike Wilson: All Hail the 50/50 Portfolio?

24 Feb 2020

Contributed by Lukas

In a world of low interest rates and low growth expectations, one portfolio strategy seems likely to continue working for investors. Chief Investment ...

Andrew Sheets: Why 2020 May Be Tricky for Investors

21 Feb 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Although current stock market performance suggests strong economic health, below the surface the story looks a bit different. Chief Cross Asset Strate...

Michael Zezas: Coronavirus and “Slowbalization”

18 Feb 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode: The impact of the coronavirus underscores the risks of unexpected disruptions of global supply chains. A look at the cost-ben...

Andrew Sheets: Will Returns Be Front-Loaded in 2020?

14 Feb 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode: Investors are faced with a number of uncertainties from public health concerns to trade to central bank policy. But as the year pl...

Michael Zezas: Notes from New Hampshire

12 Feb 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode: With no shortage of pundits weighing in on the Democratic primaries, it’s easy for investors to lean on assumptions. But Head of...

Mike Wilson: Knowing Where to Look

10 Feb 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode: The recent, relatively small, overall market correction masks more significant shifts between asset classes. Mike Wilson, Chief In...

Andrew Sheets: Supply Also Matters

07 Feb 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, Discussions about financial markets often center on issues of demand. Andrew Sheets takes a look at the supply trends that may imp...

Michael Zezas: The Limited Lives of Multiple Narratives

05 Feb 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, Recent events have added little clarity to the policy choices U.S. voters will face in the November presidential elections, b...

Mike Wilson: The Tug of War for U.S. Equites

04 Feb 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, U.S. equities face concerns over global growth—caused by the coronavirus and other catalysts—but plentiful liquidity from the ...

Jonathan Garner: What Can SARS Tell Us About the Coronavirus?

31 Jan 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, To understand the impact of the Coronavirus on humanity, economics and markets, Chief Asia and Emerging Markets Equity Strategist ...

Andrew Sheets: Coronavirus Affects the Narrative

30 Jan 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, Nations try to address the public health impact of the coronavirus alongside uncertainty about the global outlook for 2020. P...

Andrew Sheets: Are More Countries Saying Deficits Don’t Matter?

29 Jan 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, Only a decade ago, market analysts and political observers were saying sovereign deficits were bad. Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew ...

Michael Zezas: Taxation Complicates U.S.-EU Trade

27 Jan 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, Although the U.S and China have found a way forward on trade negotiations, a clear path for U.S.-EU trade is getting slightly more...

Andrew Sheets: As 2020 Begins, Investors Get Optimistic

24 Jan 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, Skepticism was the prevailing investor attitude for most of 2019, but what a difference a quarter can make. So what changed? Chief...

Michael Zezas: Do Incumbents Always Win with a Strong Economy?

22 Jan 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, How reliable is the maxim that a good economy means a presidential incumbent re-election? Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas...

Mike Wilson: Pressure Testing the Bull Case

21 Jan 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, Progress on trade and Brexit, upbeat sentiment and central bank support have investors optimistic on the bull case narrative. Even...

Andrew Sheets: Remember Fundamentals?

17 Jan 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, Central bank support and low interest rates helped drive markets higher in 2019 despite lackluster earnings. But 2020 could remind...

Michael Zezas: The Other Concern for U.S. Trade

15 Jan 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, Although negotiations are progressing for U.S-China trade, investors shouldn’t overlook possible tensions with another key tradi...

Jonathan Garner: An Underappreciated Turnaround Story?

14 Jan 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Jonathan Garner, Chief Asia and Emerging Markets equity strategist kicks off his premiere episode with what is likely the most interesting—and overl...

Mike Wilson: The Other Type of Income Inequality

13 Jan 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, Rising labor, regulatory and cyber security costs are weighing heavily on many small caps. Is corporate income inequality as urgen...

Andrew Sheets: Mapping the Future of Oil Prices

10 Jan 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, Geopolitical tensions have driven oil prices—and volatility—higher. But a quick glance at 2022 oil futures prices can tell us ...

Michael Zezas: What’s Next on U.S.-China Trade?

08 Jan 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, As a Phase One trade deal nears completion, can investors worry less about the risks of tariff escalations? Not so fast, says head...

Mike Wilson: Weighing Fed Intervention, Geopolitics

07 Jan 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, As 2020 begins, central bank moves and reawakened geopolitical risk promise to be key market catalysts. Chief Investment Officer M...

Andrew Sheets: A New Chapter for the United Kingdom

03 Jan 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, For three and a half years, Brexit has been a source of uncertainty for the United Kingdom and its markets. Now, with so...

Mike Wilson: 2020 and the Return to Reflation

23 Dec 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, why escalating labor costs, deglobalization and central bank policies may mean positioning portfolios toward stocks that benefit f...

Andrew Sheets: 3 Lessons from 2019… for 2020

20 Dec 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, What important factors from 2019 could give investors context on the investing climate ahead? Consider valuations, policy and infl...

Michael Zezas: Markets Mull the “Phase One” Deal

18 Dec 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, What will the U.S-China “Phase One” trade deal mean for the global economy, corporate confidence and markets? Head of U.S. Pub...

Mike Wilson: A Trifecta of Positive Catalysts

16 Dec 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, A dovish Fed, progress on trade and a path toward a potentially orderly Brexit are driving global equities higher but how much of ...

Andrew Sheets: 2020 Playbook: Analyzing the Bull Case

13 Dec 2019

Contributed by Lukas

In this special two part bull/bear series, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets shares insight on the catalysts that could drive strong market r...

Special Episode: Manufacturing Data Sends an Upbeat Signal

12 Dec 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On this episode with special guest Chetan Ahya, the firm’s Chief Global Economist, Trade tensions have put a damper on global manufacturing, but is ...

Michael Zezas: U.S.-China Trade: What Happens in 2020?

11 Dec 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, Although some reports have suggested progress on a phase one deal, markets are still seeking a clear signal forward on trade—and...

Mike Wilson: The Virtuous Circle of Excess Liquidity

09 Dec 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, Central banks seem likely to continue their balance sheet expansion into next year, driving lower volatility, more cash ...

Andrew Sheets: 2020 Playbook: Analyzing the Bear Case

06 Dec 2019

Contributed by Lukas

In this special two part bull/bear series, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets shares insight on the catalysts that could hamper market returns...

Michael Zezas: How Do Close U.S. Elections Affect Markets?

04 Dec 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, On average, election-year market performance varies by about 9% for elections that are narrow contests vs. elections with a clear ...

Mike Wilson: A Volatility Reprieve

02 Dec 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, Whether it's called quantitative easing or not, the recent expansion in central bank balance sheets is having a profound...

Michael Zezas: Optimism Over the U.S.-EU Auto Tariffs?

27 Nov 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, With a key deadline for U.S. tariffs on EU autos now past, could European stocks outperform in 2020? Head of Public Policy Mi...

Mike Wilson: Global Reflation: To Be or Not to Be?

25 Nov 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On this episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains why global reflation may be back—and could be a powerful longer-term theme for portfo...

Andrew Sheets: Commodities Outlook 2020: Too Much of Everything?

22 Nov 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On this episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says oversupply may spell headwinds for commodities in 2020 but there are exceptions.

Michael Zezas: The 2020 Election: 4 Sectors to Watch

20 Nov 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On this episode, Head of Public Policy Michael Zezas says performance in four key sectors could be a bellwether for how investors view the outcome of ...

Andrew Sheets: As Global Growth Improves, What to Watch

18 Nov 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On this episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says global growth should pick up in 2020, but unevenly. The key for investors will be ide...

Andrew Sheets: Will Markets See End-of-Year Holiday Cheer?

15 Nov 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On this episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets analyzes the historical phenomenon of the “end-of-year equities rally.” Will 2019...

Michael Zezas: The Power of Unified Government

13 Nov 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On this episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas says a potential boost to the U.S. economy has less to do with political parties than it doe...

Mike Wilson: The Return of the Secular Bull Market?

11 Nov 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On this episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson shares three reasons why equities markets have rallied over the past few months… and where the...

Andrew Sheets: A Tough Road Ahead for the 60/40 Portfolio?

08 Nov 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On this episode, Chief-Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets continues his discussion on the 10-year outlook for the U.S. and Europe—and identifies t...

Michael Zezas: The 2020 Election Outlook for Investors

07 Nov 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On this episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas says one thing has become clear as we approach 2020: Investors need to plan today for market...

Special Episode: Weighing a Global Growth Recovery

07 Nov 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On this episode, special guest Chetan Ahya, the firm’s Chief Global Economist, says a global growth recovery could be possible in 2020… assuming t...

Mike Wilson: Amid New Highs, Uncertainty Remains

04 Nov 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On this episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says the jury may be out on whether we’re at a trough for the U.S. economy, but two internatio...

Andrew Sheets: The Cost of Easy Policy: A 10 Year Outlook

01 Nov 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets takes a look at expected market returns over the next decade and explains how current p...

Michael Zezas: How Do Markets View Major Policy Proposals? (Replay)

30 Oct 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas takes a look at transformative policy proposals by 2020 Presidential candidates. How coul...

Mike Wilson: Are U.S. Equities Defying Gravity?

28 Oct 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today’s episode, a curious paradox: Although major indices are making new highs, many defensive stocks are leading the pack. Chief Investment Off...

Andrew Sheets: Can Sentiment Alone Drive Markets Higher?

25 Oct 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, Optimism in markets has risen significantly over the past three weeks. But Chief-Across Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets asks, “Is...

Michael Zezas: Could “Phase One” Be the Turning Point?

23 Oct 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On this episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas explains why a global growth rebound could largely hinge on trade negotiations ahead of the ...

Mike Wilson: 5 Pockets of Opportunity for Equities Investors

21 Oct 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says investors may want to steer clear of expensive growth stocks in favor of some defensive ...

Andrew Sheets: One Market We Feel Good About

18 Oct 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today’s episode, Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets highlights the one market in which the currency, government bonds and equities m...

Michael Zezas: A “Durable Pause” on U.S.-China Trade Tensions?

16 Oct 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today’s episode, Head of Public Policy Michael Zezas says unlike prior tariff pauses, the “phase one” agreement could have durability. Howeve...

Mike Wilson: How Will the “Phase One” Trade Deal Impact Earnings?

14 Oct 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says the U.S.-China trade deal is a step in the right direction, but the real story is still ...

Andrew Sheets: Is the Dollar Losing It’s Safe Haven Status?

11 Oct 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains how three of the dollar’s most attractive qualities could be shifting right ...

Michael Zezas: The Key Variable in U.S.-China Trade Talks

09 Oct 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas says when it comes to trade, movement toward a meaningful compromise will likely come dow...

Mike Wilson: An Unsatisfying Market for Bulls and Bears?

07 Oct 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today’s episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says both bulls and bears were likely a bit frustrated trying to trade last week's sell-off...

Andrew Sheets: The 3 Most Powerful Market Indicators?

04 Oct 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says despite the myriad models used to assess the direction of markets, three simple in...

Michael Zezas: U.S.-China Trade: The Outlook for Fall

02 Oct 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, A number of trade-related events on the fall calendar could mean progress—or an escalation—on the trade impasse. Head of U.S. ...

Special Series: U.S. Housing Faces a Generational Turning Point

01 Oct 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On this special episode, Equity Analyst Richard Hill examines the coming seismic shift for investors as Baby Boomers pass the housing baton to Millenn...

Mike Wilson: Are Markets Rethinking Pricey Growth Stocks?

30 Sep 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today’s episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains why markets may be having a change of heart on expensive—and sometimes unprofita...

Andrew Sheets: A Tale of Two Oil Price Spikes

27 Sep 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today’s podcast, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says oil prices tend to spike for two very different reasons and the distinction for ...

Michael Zezas: How Do Markets View Major Policy Proposals?

25 Sep 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today's episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas takes a look at transformative policy proposals by 2020 Presidential candidates. How coul...

Special Series: Is NextGen Reinventing the Banking Experience?

24 Sep 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On this special episode, Betsy Graseck, global head of banking research, explains how Millennials and Gen Z are reshaping the financial industry in th...

Mike Wilson: Looking Toward Q3 Earnings

23 Sep 2019

Contributed by Lukas

On today’s podcast, investors are watching for progress on trade and signs of future Fed policy. But according to Chief Investment Officer Mike Wils...