Thoughts on the Market
Episodes
Mike Wilson: Is Inflation Healthy for an Economy?
06 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
While excessive inflation can be disruptive, such as in the 1970’s, a deflationary mindset can often be more destructive—and difficult to reverse....
Andrew Sheets: The Legacy of Alexander Hamilton
02 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although Alexander Hamilton couldn’t have foreseen the current health crisis facing the U.S., his ideas remain relevant—and key to the recovery—...
Mike Wilson: Two Key Points about a U.S. Recovery
29 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although a worrying trend in new U.S. COIVD-19 cases has some investors understandably bearish, they may be overlooking two key points about earnings ...
Special Episode, Part 2: Europe Navigates the Coronavirus
26 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Europe’s response to the coronavirus pandemic—both in managing the outbreak and in policy response—has been strong. Here’s what it means for a...
Special Episode: “Reopening” at the Tipping Point
25 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
How should investors think about the recovery as the U.S. balances reopening with concerns over a second wave of coronavirus infections?
Michael Zezas: Is Multipolarity the New Megatrend?
24 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
How should investors view a world where there may be room for more than one norm when it comes the balance of power among economies and commerce?
Mike Wilson: Investor Reactions to a More Constructive Outlook
22 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Many investors are still looking at the current recession as an anomaly rather than as the end of a cycle. Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explai...
Andrew Sheets: Is This Recession Actually… Normal?
19 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
While the macro events of the last few months are certainly extreme by the standards of history, the current business cycle may be more normal than is...
Michael Zezas: Another Round of U.S. Pandemic Relief?
17 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Two common doubts about another round of fiscal stimulus center on the politics of passage and election year strategy. Here’s why Congress could agr...
Mike Wilson: The Highs and Lows of New Bull Markets
15 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Equity markets became a bit frothy during early June as optimism over a recovery took hold. So while a correction may be afoot, it isn’t atypical fo...
Special Episode: Europe’s Moment of Solidarity
12 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The proposed €750 billion European Recovery Fund could represent more than just a recovery from COVID-19. It may also signal a new era of political ...
Michael Zezas: Unpacking the Politics of Deficits
10 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Policymakers and voters may care about deficits, but reducing current spending may not be a priority over other issues—and right now that may be a p...
Andrew Sheets: A Significant Moment for the Eurozone
09 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Over the last decade, global investors have been lukewarm toward European assets, but three encouraging developments may be set to change that investi...
Mike Wilson: Rates Play Catch-Up, Again
08 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Depressed 10-year Treasury yields and a strong dollar have tempered the bullish outlook for U.S. equities. But a shift in both suggests a V-shape reco...
Andrew Sheets: What Do Markets Reward? Progress.
05 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Why are markets climbing despite a pandemic and this week’s demonstrations across the U.S.? The answer may lie with how markets view progress.
Special Episode: The Race to a Vaccine
04 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Large cap biotech analyst Matthew Harrison talks with Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets to discuss the latest timeline for a coronavirus vacc...
Mike Wilson: Welcome to Early Cycle?
01 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although market volatility continues to decrease, the volatility of popular momentum strategies is increasing—which suggests a coming rotation to ea...
Andrew Sheets: Does COVID-19 Change the Investing Playbook?
29 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although the impact of the coronavirus on markets, economies and jobs is truly unprecedented, it doesn’t mean investing precedents don’t still app...
Michael Zezas: Could Cash-Strapped States Bank on Online Gaming?
27 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As U.S. states cope with challenged finances due to the coronavirus, could some look to online gaming to fill budget gaps?
Mike Wilson: 3 Reasons Why a 2020 Recovery May Be Different
26 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although the coronavirus recession shares traits with the 2008 financial crisis and other recessions, the rate and sustainability of a recovery could ...
Special Episode: All Hail the U.S. Consumer
22 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Will pent-up demand from U.S. consumers help drive a recovery from the coronavirus recession? A special conversation with our Chief Investment Officer...
Andrew Sheets: The Case for the Return of Inflation
21 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Why would inflation rise since the current recession means an acute shortage of demand for goods and services? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew She...
Michael Zezas: The Mechanics of Fiscal Stimulus
20 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Congress is weighing another round of fiscal stimulus, possibly by July. But the dynamics of passage in an election year could mean a narrow window to...
Mike Wilson: Financial Repression Is Alive and Well
18 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Current stock market price patterns look surprisingly similar to 2009 and the global financial crisis. The big difference for investors may be the kno...
Andrew Sheets: Are Negative Interest Rates Coming to the U.S. and UK?
15 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As markets have begun to price expectations for negative rates in Britain and the U.S., Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets breaks down the pot...
Special Episode: Lessons and Limits of China’s Recovery
14 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
What China’s rebound from COVID-19 can—and can’t—tell us about the path, speed and pitfalls of economic reopening for other countries. Chief C...
Michael Zezas: COVID-19 Sparks Renewed U.S.-China Trade Tensions
13 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Can the Phase One trade deal détente stand, or will the U.S. and China return to a cycle of escalating tariffs that may impact prospects of a rebound...
Mike Wilson: U is for Unicorn
11 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Amid investor speculation about the shape of a recovery, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson urges a standard recession playbook.
Special Episode, Part 2: Markets Eye Climbing Government Deficits
08 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
How should an investor evaluate the issue of high levels of government debt as nations battle the impact of the coronavirus? A deep dive into the deba...
Special Episode: Recovering from the Stimulus
07 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
How can we best coordinate policy to support a timely recovery and what lessons can we learn from the past? Chief Global Economist Chetan Ahya and Chi...
Michael Zezas: Fixing a Hole (in State Budgets)
06 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The hole in U.S. state budgets caused by coronavirus-driven revenue shortfalls will likely affect more than just muni bond investors. Head of Public P...
Mike Wilson: A Pause that Refreshes
04 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As the rally in U.S. equities takes a break, investors may want to position for "early cycle." And that means re-thinking portfolios just as downbeat ...
Andrew Sheets: The Disconnect Between Economies and Markets
01 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Why did April’s stock market gains seem oddly disconnected from recent poor economic data? Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets has the answer...
Matthew Hornbach: A Change of Fortune for the U.S. Dollar?
30 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Consensus on the dollar has been bearish for years, only to be proven wrong time after time. But Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach says t...
Michael Zezas: Could U.S. State Governments Go Bankrupt?
29 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As Congress debates aid for state governments, for investors, the principal concern is that a lack of additional federal aid might further depress sta...
Mike Wilson: Staying Ahead of the (Flattening) Curve
27 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As some states begin to loosen quarantine restrictions, "stay at home stocks" may no longer be the place to be. Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson e...
Andrew Sheets: Even in a Crisis, the Cycle Still Matters
24 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Investment strategies tied to the business cycle are still relevant, especially as our key internal indicator shows the cycle has moved into a new pha...
Special Episode, Part 2: How Much Stimulus Is Enough?
23 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Congress has readied more funds to support U.S. businesses and households in order to shorten the pandemic-induced downturn. How far will they go? Chi...
Special Episode: How Much Stimulus Is Enough?
22 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Congress has readied more funds to support U.S. businesses and households in order to shorten the pandemic-induced downturn. How far will they go? Chi...
Mike Wilson: Equities Position for America’s Grand Reopening
20 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although it remains to be seen how fast the U.S. can “re-open,” in the near term, markets may be betting on an economy that will normalize faster ...
Andrew Sheets: Why OPEC May Be Rethinking Its Strategy
17 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The steep decline in oil prices is a fascinating story of demand, supply and even game theory. But Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says tha...
Reza Moghadam: Emerging-Market Economies Prepare for COVID-19
16 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Emerging markets recovered quickly from the 2008 financial crisis, but could a more challenging backdrop in 2020 mean a different outcome this time? I...
Michael Zezas: Has the Fed Ignited Muni Bond Markets?
15 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
For investors in municipal bonds, the Fed’s recent creation of the Municipal Liquidity Facility and Mainstreet Lending Facility are a key positive. ...
Special Episode, Part 2: Coronavirus - Building Models to Rebuild Economies
14 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
When do we return to work? The market reaction? The drug pipeline? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Head Biotech Equity Analyst Matthew ...
Mike Wilson: U.S. Markets React to Fed Moves
13 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
If there is one lesson to be learned from the financial repression era it's that when risk premium appears, investors may want to make moves before it...
Special Episode: Coronavirus – Building Models to Rebuild Economies
09 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
How do you track a virus, a global economy and a road to recovery? On this special episode, an engaging conversation with our Chief Cross-Asset Strate...
Michael Zezas: Another Dose of Fiscal Stimulus?
08 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The U.S. Congress has been debating ways to flatten another worrying curve: the sliding economic growth curve. What form could additional fiscal stimu...
Mike Wilson: What Are Markets Thinking?
06 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Asset prices often reflect the obvious before it becomes obvious. So the question for investors now is, "What is the market thinking about that's not ...
Andrew Sheets: Optimism for Credit Markets
03 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Even as economic and public health data get worse, recent changes in three key factors make global credit markets an attractive option. Our Chief Cros...
Michael Zezas: What Does the CARES Act Buy?
01 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The $2 trillion CARES Act includes a variety of provisions that will help preserve the financial health of state and local governments, hospitals and ...
Mike Wilson: U.S. Equities - Is the Worst Behind Us?
30 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although economic and earnings data could be gloomy over the next month, have equity markets already discounted the bad news? Detailed analysis from C...
Andrew Sheets: The Critical Calls of Financial Referees
27 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Governments and central banks face two issues: A flight to liquidity and a global economy that showed signs of fatigue even before the pandemic. For i...
Special Episode: Can $2 Trillion Flatten the Unemployment Curve?
26 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As a record 3.28 million workers file for unemployment, our Chief U.S. Economist and Chief U.S. Public Policy researcher weigh potential effects from ...
Michael Zezas: Sizing Up the Stimulus Package
25 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Congressional leaders have reached a deal on a $2 trillion stimulus bill to deal with fallout from the coronavirus crisis. Will it work? Two criteria ...
Mike Wilson: The Underlying Reasons for Recession
23 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Mike Wilson looks beyond the coronavirus outbreak at the two key conditions which have made the markets vulnerable to a recession.
Andrew Sheets: First, Improve on Uncertainty
20 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On this episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says that the 4%+ swings in equities markets have made investors skeptical about jumping b...
Andrew Sheets: Why We Think Risk/Reward Is Improving
19 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although the sell-off may not be over and the global economy has tough days ahead, a growing number of factors suggest that risk/reward in markets may...
Special Episode: Imagining the Shape of Recovery
18 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As central banks and governments weigh a litany of stimulus efforts, what could the journey to economic recovery look like? Our Chief U.S. Economist a...
Michael Zezas: Inside the Municipal Bond Liquidity Trap
17 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
When markets get volatile, strange things start to happen in markets you might not expect. That's both a sign of stress, and in some cases, a sign of ...
Mike Wilson: The End of The Cyclical Bear Market?
16 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Just three months ago, market expectations were likely overoptimistic. That's how tops are made. Today, they are maybe too pessimistic… and that's h...
Andrew Sheets: The Comfort of Market Patterns
13 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although current market swings suggest that we are in serious, unpredictable times, a look through market history may reveal where we’re headed next...
Michael Zezas: Oil Exporter Tensions Add to Market Worries
11 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The dual challenges of the coronavirus and the collapse of the OPEC plus arrangement intensifies the need for a fiscal response from Washington. Head ...
Special Episode: The Road Ahead
10 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Investors reacted strongly as oil prices and coronavirus worries disrupted markets. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Chief U.S. Economis...
Mike Wilson: Revisiting the Rolling Bear Market
09 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The recent correction in equity markets suggests that the fourth quarter rally in 2019 may have been a false breakout—and the rolling bear has unfin...
Andrew Sheets: Patience as an Investing Virtue
06 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Two competing forces—hopes for further central bank moves vs. coronavirus uncertainty—are driving a notable rise in volatility. What signal should...
Michael Zezas: Lessons from Super Tuesday
04 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
From an investment standpoint, are there lessons to be learned from Joe Biden’s strong showing on Super Tuesday? Yes, but not the ones you migh...
Special Episode: A Policy Fix Isn’t Easy
03 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
U.S. stocks fell Tuesday despite a half point rate cut by the Fed. Is conventional wisdom wrong that lower interest rates and central bank support are...
Andrew Sheets: Coronavirus: Are Markets Overreacting?
27 Feb 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Global equity markets have endured several days of losses as worries over the coronavirus continue. The question for many investors is “What to do n...
Special Episode: Coronavirus as Catalyst
26 Feb 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Markets have spent the week increasingly concerned about the coronavirus, but Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says there’s a lot more going on ...
Michael Zezas: Medicare for All… for Investors
26 Feb 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Senator Bernie Sanders’ recent primary wins are causing some to debate the impact of potential new health care reform on markets. Head of ...
Mike Wilson: All Hail the 50/50 Portfolio?
24 Feb 2020
Contributed by Lukas
In a world of low interest rates and low growth expectations, one portfolio strategy seems likely to continue working for investors. Chief Investment ...
Andrew Sheets: Why 2020 May Be Tricky for Investors
21 Feb 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although current stock market performance suggests strong economic health, below the surface the story looks a bit different. Chief Cross Asset Strate...
Michael Zezas: Coronavirus and “Slowbalization”
18 Feb 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode: The impact of the coronavirus underscores the risks of unexpected disruptions of global supply chains. A look at the cost-ben...
Andrew Sheets: Will Returns Be Front-Loaded in 2020?
14 Feb 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode: Investors are faced with a number of uncertainties from public health concerns to trade to central bank policy. But as the year pl...
Michael Zezas: Notes from New Hampshire
12 Feb 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode: With no shortage of pundits weighing in on the Democratic primaries, it’s easy for investors to lean on assumptions. But Head of...
Mike Wilson: Knowing Where to Look
10 Feb 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode: The recent, relatively small, overall market correction masks more significant shifts between asset classes. Mike Wilson, Chief In...
Andrew Sheets: Supply Also Matters
07 Feb 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Discussions about financial markets often center on issues of demand. Andrew Sheets takes a look at the supply trends that may imp...
Michael Zezas: The Limited Lives of Multiple Narratives
05 Feb 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Recent events have added little clarity to the policy choices U.S. voters will face in the November presidential elections, b...
Mike Wilson: The Tug of War for U.S. Equites
04 Feb 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, U.S. equities face concerns over global growth—caused by the coronavirus and other catalysts—but plentiful liquidity from the ...
Jonathan Garner: What Can SARS Tell Us About the Coronavirus?
31 Jan 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, To understand the impact of the Coronavirus on humanity, economics and markets, Chief Asia and Emerging Markets Equity Strategist ...
Andrew Sheets: Coronavirus Affects the Narrative
30 Jan 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Nations try to address the public health impact of the coronavirus alongside uncertainty about the global outlook for 2020. P...
Andrew Sheets: Are More Countries Saying Deficits Don’t Matter?
29 Jan 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Only a decade ago, market analysts and political observers were saying sovereign deficits were bad. Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew ...
Michael Zezas: Taxation Complicates U.S.-EU Trade
27 Jan 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Although the U.S and China have found a way forward on trade negotiations, a clear path for U.S.-EU trade is getting slightly more...
Andrew Sheets: As 2020 Begins, Investors Get Optimistic
24 Jan 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Skepticism was the prevailing investor attitude for most of 2019, but what a difference a quarter can make. So what changed? Chief...
Michael Zezas: Do Incumbents Always Win with a Strong Economy?
22 Jan 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, How reliable is the maxim that a good economy means a presidential incumbent re-election? Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas...
Mike Wilson: Pressure Testing the Bull Case
21 Jan 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Progress on trade and Brexit, upbeat sentiment and central bank support have investors optimistic on the bull case narrative. Even...
Andrew Sheets: Remember Fundamentals?
17 Jan 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Central bank support and low interest rates helped drive markets higher in 2019 despite lackluster earnings. But 2020 could remind...
Michael Zezas: The Other Concern for U.S. Trade
15 Jan 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Although negotiations are progressing for U.S-China trade, investors shouldn’t overlook possible tensions with another key tradi...
Jonathan Garner: An Underappreciated Turnaround Story?
14 Jan 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Jonathan Garner, Chief Asia and Emerging Markets equity strategist kicks off his premiere episode with what is likely the most interesting—and overl...
Mike Wilson: The Other Type of Income Inequality
13 Jan 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Rising labor, regulatory and cyber security costs are weighing heavily on many small caps. Is corporate income inequality as urgen...
Andrew Sheets: Mapping the Future of Oil Prices
10 Jan 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, Geopolitical tensions have driven oil prices—and volatility—higher. But a quick glance at 2022 oil futures prices can tell us ...
Michael Zezas: What’s Next on U.S.-China Trade?
08 Jan 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, As a Phase One trade deal nears completion, can investors worry less about the risks of tariff escalations? Not so fast, says head...
Mike Wilson: Weighing Fed Intervention, Geopolitics
07 Jan 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, As 2020 begins, central bank moves and reawakened geopolitical risk promise to be key market catalysts. Chief Investment Officer M...
Andrew Sheets: A New Chapter for the United Kingdom
03 Jan 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, For three and a half years, Brexit has been a source of uncertainty for the United Kingdom and its markets. Now, with so...
Mike Wilson: 2020 and the Return to Reflation
23 Dec 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, why escalating labor costs, deglobalization and central bank policies may mean positioning portfolios toward stocks that benefit f...
Andrew Sheets: 3 Lessons from 2019… for 2020
20 Dec 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, What important factors from 2019 could give investors context on the investing climate ahead? Consider valuations, policy and infl...
Michael Zezas: Markets Mull the “Phase One” Deal
18 Dec 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, What will the U.S-China “Phase One” trade deal mean for the global economy, corporate confidence and markets? Head of U.S. Pub...
Mike Wilson: A Trifecta of Positive Catalysts
16 Dec 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On today's episode, A dovish Fed, progress on trade and a path toward a potentially orderly Brexit are driving global equities higher but how much of ...
Andrew Sheets: 2020 Playbook: Analyzing the Bull Case
13 Dec 2019
Contributed by Lukas
In this special two part bull/bear series, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets shares insight on the catalysts that could drive strong market r...
Special Episode: Manufacturing Data Sends an Upbeat Signal
12 Dec 2019
Contributed by Lukas
On this episode with special guest Chetan Ahya, the firm’s Chief Global Economist, Trade tensions have put a damper on global manufacturing, but is ...