Thoughts on the Market
Episodes
Andrew Sheets: The Uncertainty of the Fed’s New Certainty
18 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
This week, the Fed announced a new framework that could keep interest rates unusually low. So why did markets collectively yawn at the announcement?
Special Episode: The ABCs of ESG ETFs
16 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On this special edition of the podcast, Jessica Alsford, Head of the Global Sustainability Research Team talks with Michael Zezas about the important ...
Mike Wilson: Could the Correction Continue Further?
14 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Why gridlock on the next U.S stimulus package—combined with election year uncertainty—suggests there could be more downside in September and Octob...
Andrew Sheets: Markets Ponder a Trillion-Dollar Question
11 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
A downward adjustment in some high-flying U.S. tech stocks has put investors on edge this month, but an impasse on fiscal stimulus negotiations may be...
Special Episode: Why Vaccine Discovery is Just the Beginning
10 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As COVID-19 vaccine development continues in phase three studies, the logistics of FDA approvals, production and the complex hurdles of dist...
Michael Zezas: The Waiting is the Hardest Part
09 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Could a possible delay in U.S. election night results mean volatility as markets price various outcomes for policies that impact sectors?
Mike Wilson: Putting the Market Correction in Context
08 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although the current market correction is not wholly surprising given the outsized rally in August, what was the ultimate trigger… and what's next?
Andrew Sheets: Are Markets Really “Disconnected”?
03 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
How to explain the steady, almost mechanical rise in markets despite often weak economic data? It may come down to expectations and trend lines.
Mike Wilson: The Age of Fiscal Policy Dominance?
31 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although consensus sees long-term interest rates staying low, could a potential $2 trillion fiscal stimulus mean rates will rise more (and faster) tha...
Michael Zezas: How Much Aid Do State/Local Governments Need?
26 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Just how big would a state and local U.S. stimulus package need to be to support a V-shaped recovery and avoid credit downgrades?
Robin Xing: China’s Next Phase - Recovery, Reshoring, Retaining
25 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
China’s recovery could be progressing better than markets expected as consumers spend more money onshore and the nation’s export engine gains mark...
Mike Wilson: Are We Ripe for a U.S. Equities Correction?
24 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says although we’re likely at the beginning of a years-long cyclical bull market, one signal could be...
Andrew Sheets: What Can a Haircut Tell Us About Inflation?
21 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Markets are pricing years of lower inflation due to fallout from the pandemic. But a simple barbershop visit illustrates why that view is worth examin...
Michael Zezas: Sizing Up Democrat Corporate Tax Proposals
19 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although U.S. presidential candidate Joe Biden has proposed an increase in corporate taxes, how likely are they to pass in their current form?
Mike Wilson: The Case for Higher Long-Term Interest Rates
17 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although marketplace consensus believes that long-term interest rates are set to stay lower for longer, five factors suggest higher long-term rates co...
Andrew Sheets: Better to Travel Than to Arrive?
14 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Markets have been surprisingly strong of late given the delay in further stimulus in the U.S.. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets discusses th...
Michael Zezas: Rising Risks for New Stimulus?
12 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Is it the end of the road for more economic aid from Congress this year? Michael Zezas, Head of U.S. Public Policy Research breaks down the impasse an...
Reza Moghadam: The EU Recovery Fund’s Next Phase
11 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
After intense negotiations, European leaders have reached a historic coronavirus recovery deal. However, the hardest challenge may lie ahead: How to s...
Andrew Sheets: The Case for Optimism in the Near Term
07 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says although their base case for continued market strength is measured, there is an argument to be made fo...
Mike Wilson: Who’s Driving The Growth in U.S. Money Supply?
03 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Growth in money supply is one of the most powerful indicators for rising inflation—and it's currently rising at record levels. How should investors ...
Andrew Sheets: A Refreshing Pause for Markets?
31 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
With the precipitous drop in U.S. GDP and the effects of monetary and fiscal interventions, the rest of third quarter may be a moment for investors to...
Michael Zezas: Considering a Potential U.S.-China Decoupling
29 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As tensions between the U.S. and China tick higher, investors are weighing the chances of a potential U.S.-China economic decoupling—and what it mig...
Special Episode: Investment Themes for a Post-COVID World
28 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and macro trends will likely affect investing fundamentals for years to come. Our experts weigh in on seve...
Mike Wilson: Have Stocks “Pulled Forward” Too Much?
27 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Some U.S. stocks have reaped the benefits of a pull forward in demand thanks to effects of the pandemic. But with valuations rich, is a correction now...
Special Episode, Part 2: COVID-19 - How Close Are We to a Vaccine?
24 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
In the second of a special two-part episode, we talk with biotech equity analyst Matthew Harrison about market response to new data in the race for a ...
Special Episode: COVID-19 - Preparing for Fall's Second Wave
23 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
In the first of a special two part episode, we talk with biotech equity analyst Matthew Harrison about new case projections ahead of fall and flu seas...
Michael Zezas: States Look to D.C. to Fill Budget Holes
22 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Local and state governments across the U.S. are eagerly watching whether a new round of stimulus will help them address budget shortfalls. Will Congre...
Mike Wilson: Adapting to The Ninth Wonder of the World
20 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Understanding the regime of financial repression we are under, and recent changes in it, is key for successful investment. Chief Investment Officer, M...
Andrew Sheets: Bracing for Challenges Ahead
17 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
While July contains a number of potentially positive market events, August and September could present a number of potentially problematic ones.
Michael Zezas: Coronavirus - Why Another Stimulus Deal is Likely
15 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Could a new $1 trillion stimulus deal make its way through the halls of Congress before the summer recess? Why the likelihood of a deal is increasing.
Mike Wilson: U.S. Markets Weigh Optimism; Uncertainty
13 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
U.S. equities—tech stocks in particular—have powered higher since March lows, but investors are still parsing Q2 earnings, a coming election and r...
Andrew Sheets: Pressure Testing the “Overoptimistic Markets” Argument
10 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The sharp rebound in stock and corporate bond markets has made some question if markets are a bit too upbeat about a speedy recovery. There’s just o...
Michael Zezas: How Should Investors Ride a Potential “Blue Wave”?
08 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although the U.S. election is anything but predictable four months away, investors may still want to consider how markets would react to a Democrat sw...
Mike Wilson: Is Inflation Healthy for an Economy?
06 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
While excessive inflation can be disruptive, such as in the 1970’s, a deflationary mindset can often be more destructive—and difficult to reverse....
Andrew Sheets: The Legacy of Alexander Hamilton
02 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although Alexander Hamilton couldn’t have foreseen the current health crisis facing the U.S., his ideas remain relevant—and key to the recovery—...
Mike Wilson: Two Key Points about a U.S. Recovery
29 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although a worrying trend in new U.S. COIVD-19 cases has some investors understandably bearish, they may be overlooking two key points about earnings ...
Special Episode, Part 2: Europe Navigates the Coronavirus
26 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Europe’s response to the coronavirus pandemic—both in managing the outbreak and in policy response—has been strong. Here’s what it means for a...
Special Episode: “Reopening” at the Tipping Point
25 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
How should investors think about the recovery as the U.S. balances reopening with concerns over a second wave of coronavirus infections?
Michael Zezas: Is Multipolarity the New Megatrend?
24 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
How should investors view a world where there may be room for more than one norm when it comes the balance of power among economies and commerce?
Mike Wilson: Investor Reactions to a More Constructive Outlook
22 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Many investors are still looking at the current recession as an anomaly rather than as the end of a cycle. Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explai...
Andrew Sheets: Is This Recession Actually… Normal?
19 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
While the macro events of the last few months are certainly extreme by the standards of history, the current business cycle may be more normal than is...
Michael Zezas: Another Round of U.S. Pandemic Relief?
17 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Two common doubts about another round of fiscal stimulus center on the politics of passage and election year strategy. Here’s why Congress could agr...
Mike Wilson: The Highs and Lows of New Bull Markets
15 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Equity markets became a bit frothy during early June as optimism over a recovery took hold. So while a correction may be afoot, it isn’t atypical fo...
Special Episode: Europe’s Moment of Solidarity
12 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The proposed €750 billion European Recovery Fund could represent more than just a recovery from COVID-19. It may also signal a new era of political ...
Michael Zezas: Unpacking the Politics of Deficits
10 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Policymakers and voters may care about deficits, but reducing current spending may not be a priority over other issues—and right now that may be a p...
Andrew Sheets: A Significant Moment for the Eurozone
09 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Over the last decade, global investors have been lukewarm toward European assets, but three encouraging developments may be set to change that investi...
Mike Wilson: Rates Play Catch-Up, Again
08 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Depressed 10-year Treasury yields and a strong dollar have tempered the bullish outlook for U.S. equities. But a shift in both suggests a V-shape reco...
Andrew Sheets: What Do Markets Reward? Progress.
05 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Why are markets climbing despite a pandemic and this week’s demonstrations across the U.S.? The answer may lie with how markets view progress.
Special Episode: The Race to a Vaccine
04 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Large cap biotech analyst Matthew Harrison talks with Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets to discuss the latest timeline for a coronavirus vacc...
Mike Wilson: Welcome to Early Cycle?
01 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although market volatility continues to decrease, the volatility of popular momentum strategies is increasing—which suggests a coming rotation to ea...
Andrew Sheets: Does COVID-19 Change the Investing Playbook?
29 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although the impact of the coronavirus on markets, economies and jobs is truly unprecedented, it doesn’t mean investing precedents don’t still app...
Michael Zezas: Could Cash-Strapped States Bank on Online Gaming?
27 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As U.S. states cope with challenged finances due to the coronavirus, could some look to online gaming to fill budget gaps?
Mike Wilson: 3 Reasons Why a 2020 Recovery May Be Different
26 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although the coronavirus recession shares traits with the 2008 financial crisis and other recessions, the rate and sustainability of a recovery could ...
Special Episode: All Hail the U.S. Consumer
22 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Will pent-up demand from U.S. consumers help drive a recovery from the coronavirus recession? A special conversation with our Chief Investment Officer...
Andrew Sheets: The Case for the Return of Inflation
21 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Why would inflation rise since the current recession means an acute shortage of demand for goods and services? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew She...
Michael Zezas: The Mechanics of Fiscal Stimulus
20 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Congress is weighing another round of fiscal stimulus, possibly by July. But the dynamics of passage in an election year could mean a narrow window to...
Mike Wilson: Financial Repression Is Alive and Well
18 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Current stock market price patterns look surprisingly similar to 2009 and the global financial crisis. The big difference for investors may be the kno...
Andrew Sheets: Are Negative Interest Rates Coming to the U.S. and UK?
15 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As markets have begun to price expectations for negative rates in Britain and the U.S., Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets breaks down the pot...
Special Episode: Lessons and Limits of China’s Recovery
14 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
What China’s rebound from COVID-19 can—and can’t—tell us about the path, speed and pitfalls of economic reopening for other countries. Chief C...
Michael Zezas: COVID-19 Sparks Renewed U.S.-China Trade Tensions
13 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Can the Phase One trade deal détente stand, or will the U.S. and China return to a cycle of escalating tariffs that may impact prospects of a rebound...
Mike Wilson: U is for Unicorn
11 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Amid investor speculation about the shape of a recovery, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson urges a standard recession playbook.
Special Episode, Part 2: Markets Eye Climbing Government Deficits
08 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
How should an investor evaluate the issue of high levels of government debt as nations battle the impact of the coronavirus? A deep dive into the deba...
Special Episode: Recovering from the Stimulus
07 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
How can we best coordinate policy to support a timely recovery and what lessons can we learn from the past? Chief Global Economist Chetan Ahya and Chi...
Michael Zezas: Fixing a Hole (in State Budgets)
06 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The hole in U.S. state budgets caused by coronavirus-driven revenue shortfalls will likely affect more than just muni bond investors. Head of Public P...
Mike Wilson: A Pause that Refreshes
04 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As the rally in U.S. equities takes a break, investors may want to position for "early cycle." And that means re-thinking portfolios just as downbeat ...
Andrew Sheets: The Disconnect Between Economies and Markets
01 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Why did April’s stock market gains seem oddly disconnected from recent poor economic data? Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets has the answer...
Matthew Hornbach: A Change of Fortune for the U.S. Dollar?
30 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Consensus on the dollar has been bearish for years, only to be proven wrong time after time. But Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach says t...
Michael Zezas: Could U.S. State Governments Go Bankrupt?
29 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As Congress debates aid for state governments, for investors, the principal concern is that a lack of additional federal aid might further depress sta...
Mike Wilson: Staying Ahead of the (Flattening) Curve
27 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As some states begin to loosen quarantine restrictions, "stay at home stocks" may no longer be the place to be. Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson e...
Andrew Sheets: Even in a Crisis, the Cycle Still Matters
24 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Investment strategies tied to the business cycle are still relevant, especially as our key internal indicator shows the cycle has moved into a new pha...
Special Episode, Part 2: How Much Stimulus Is Enough?
23 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Congress has readied more funds to support U.S. businesses and households in order to shorten the pandemic-induced downturn. How far will they go? Chi...
Special Episode: How Much Stimulus Is Enough?
22 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Congress has readied more funds to support U.S. businesses and households in order to shorten the pandemic-induced downturn. How far will they go? Chi...
Mike Wilson: Equities Position for America’s Grand Reopening
20 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although it remains to be seen how fast the U.S. can “re-open,” in the near term, markets may be betting on an economy that will normalize faster ...
Andrew Sheets: Why OPEC May Be Rethinking Its Strategy
17 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The steep decline in oil prices is a fascinating story of demand, supply and even game theory. But Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says tha...
Reza Moghadam: Emerging-Market Economies Prepare for COVID-19
16 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Emerging markets recovered quickly from the 2008 financial crisis, but could a more challenging backdrop in 2020 mean a different outcome this time? I...
Michael Zezas: Has the Fed Ignited Muni Bond Markets?
15 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
For investors in municipal bonds, the Fed’s recent creation of the Municipal Liquidity Facility and Mainstreet Lending Facility are a key positive. ...
Special Episode, Part 2: Coronavirus - Building Models to Rebuild Economies
14 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
When do we return to work? The market reaction? The drug pipeline? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Head Biotech Equity Analyst Matthew ...
Mike Wilson: U.S. Markets React to Fed Moves
13 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
If there is one lesson to be learned from the financial repression era it's that when risk premium appears, investors may want to make moves before it...
Special Episode: Coronavirus – Building Models to Rebuild Economies
09 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
How do you track a virus, a global economy and a road to recovery? On this special episode, an engaging conversation with our Chief Cross-Asset Strate...
Michael Zezas: Another Dose of Fiscal Stimulus?
08 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The U.S. Congress has been debating ways to flatten another worrying curve: the sliding economic growth curve. What form could additional fiscal stimu...
Mike Wilson: What Are Markets Thinking?
06 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Asset prices often reflect the obvious before it becomes obvious. So the question for investors now is, "What is the market thinking about that's not ...
Andrew Sheets: Optimism for Credit Markets
03 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Even as economic and public health data get worse, recent changes in three key factors make global credit markets an attractive option. Our Chief Cros...
Michael Zezas: What Does the CARES Act Buy?
01 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The $2 trillion CARES Act includes a variety of provisions that will help preserve the financial health of state and local governments, hospitals and ...
Mike Wilson: U.S. Equities - Is the Worst Behind Us?
30 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although economic and earnings data could be gloomy over the next month, have equity markets already discounted the bad news? Detailed analysis from C...
Andrew Sheets: The Critical Calls of Financial Referees
27 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Governments and central banks face two issues: A flight to liquidity and a global economy that showed signs of fatigue even before the pandemic. For i...
Special Episode: Can $2 Trillion Flatten the Unemployment Curve?
26 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As a record 3.28 million workers file for unemployment, our Chief U.S. Economist and Chief U.S. Public Policy researcher weigh potential effects from ...
Michael Zezas: Sizing Up the Stimulus Package
25 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Congressional leaders have reached a deal on a $2 trillion stimulus bill to deal with fallout from the coronavirus crisis. Will it work? Two criteria ...
Mike Wilson: The Underlying Reasons for Recession
23 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Mike Wilson looks beyond the coronavirus outbreak at the two key conditions which have made the markets vulnerable to a recession.
Andrew Sheets: First, Improve on Uncertainty
20 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On this episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says that the 4%+ swings in equities markets have made investors skeptical about jumping b...
Andrew Sheets: Why We Think Risk/Reward Is Improving
19 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although the sell-off may not be over and the global economy has tough days ahead, a growing number of factors suggest that risk/reward in markets may...
Special Episode: Imagining the Shape of Recovery
18 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As central banks and governments weigh a litany of stimulus efforts, what could the journey to economic recovery look like? Our Chief U.S. Economist a...
Michael Zezas: Inside the Municipal Bond Liquidity Trap
17 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
When markets get volatile, strange things start to happen in markets you might not expect. That's both a sign of stress, and in some cases, a sign of ...
Mike Wilson: The End of The Cyclical Bear Market?
16 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Just three months ago, market expectations were likely overoptimistic. That's how tops are made. Today, they are maybe too pessimistic… and that's h...
Andrew Sheets: The Comfort of Market Patterns
13 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although current market swings suggest that we are in serious, unpredictable times, a look through market history may reveal where we’re headed next...
Michael Zezas: Oil Exporter Tensions Add to Market Worries
11 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The dual challenges of the coronavirus and the collapse of the OPEC plus arrangement intensifies the need for a fiscal response from Washington. Head ...
Special Episode: The Road Ahead
10 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Investors reacted strongly as oil prices and coronavirus worries disrupted markets. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Chief U.S. Economis...
Mike Wilson: Revisiting the Rolling Bear Market
09 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The recent correction in equity markets suggests that the fourth quarter rally in 2019 may have been a false breakout—and the rolling bear has unfin...
Andrew Sheets: Patience as an Investing Virtue
06 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Two competing forces—hopes for further central bank moves vs. coronavirus uncertainty—are driving a notable rise in volatility. What signal should...
Michael Zezas: Lessons from Super Tuesday
04 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
From an investment standpoint, are there lessons to be learned from Joe Biden’s strong showing on Super Tuesday? Yes, but not the ones you migh...
Special Episode: A Policy Fix Isn’t Easy
03 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
U.S. stocks fell Tuesday despite a half point rate cut by the Fed. Is conventional wisdom wrong that lower interest rates and central bank support are...