Thoughts on the Market

Mike Wilson: 2021 Preview - A Bull with Room to Run

16 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Although near-term worries about the coronavirus and higher interest rates could challenge company valuations, the 12-month U.S. equities outlook may ...

Andrew Sheets: An Artificial Calm?

13 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Confidence in the ability of central bank to suppress market volatility through aggressive policy may be misplaced.

Matt Hornbach: 2021 - Another Big Year for Liquidity?

12 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

G10 central banks could inject another $2.8 trillion of liquidity next year—over twice the amount in any year prior to this one. How will this impac...

Michael Zezas: Vaccine-driven Rebound Could Help Munis

11 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Although improving economic growth and rising inflation could present challenges for bond investors, “re-opening” could bring benefit for municipa...

Reza Moghadam: Amid Lockdowns, Europe Looks to a Vaccine

10 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Although COVID-19 new case rates have been climbing in Europe, the impact of this second wave may not be as severe this time around.

Mike Wilson: Markets Cheer Clarity on Vaccine, Election

09 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Upbeat news on a coronavirus vaccine and a win for President-elect Biden drive stocks significantly higher. How should investors trade a potentially e...

Special Episode: Markets Parse Election Results, Jobs Report

06 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

All eyes are on the U.S. Presidential race as markets also weigh climbing coronavirus cases in the U.S., fiscal stimulus uncertainty and October’s j...

Michael Zezas: Breaking - Why Post-Election Day Just Got Trickier

05 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Amidst the uncertainty, three topics should be front of mind for investors: implications of a divided government, the path to fiscal stimulus and tax ...

Mike Wilson: Is the Worst of the Correction Over?

02 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Although some volatility may lie ahead, the end of the U.S. election cycle and progress on a potential coronavirus vaccine may bring some optimism to ...

Andrew Sheets: A Transformational Sweep?

30 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

A look at the 2008 and 2016 U.S. elections suggests that a sweep by either Democrats or Republicans could push stocks and bond yields higher in 2021.

Michael Zezas: Election Night Strategy for Investors

28 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

For investors, election night could hinge on moments when markets conclude who has won, not necessarily on when media networks call a winner.

Mike Wilson: 3 Sticking Points for U.S. Equities

26 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. equity markets have been stuck range bound due to three key concerns, but investors could use that uncertainty to their advantage.

U.S. Election 2020: Divided Government Scenarios

23 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

In part two of our special election episode, we look at the policies that could potentially come out of divided party control among the White House, S...

U.S. Election 2020: Straightaways and Detours

22 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

What is the road ahead for global markets between now and inauguration day? The answer may fall into two categories: straightaways and detours. Part o...

Michael Zezas: What's Going On With The U.S. Bond Market?

21 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries are now at multi-month highs, prompting some investors to ask “What’s going on?” Analysis from...

Mike Wilson: Why the Correction May Not Be Over

19 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Uncertainty about fiscal stimulus, the U.S. election and the pandemic could mean the correction isn’t over. However, one thematic opportunity could ...

Andrew Sheets: Are Markets Pricing-In Recent U.S. Election Polls?

16 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Although many investors view markets as a highly efficient prognostic machine, the surprises of the 2016 election may have created more hesitancy to g...

Special Episode: Playing the Reopening and Recovery Into 2021

15 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On this Special Episode, Chief U.S. Economist Ellen Zentner talks with U.S. Equity Strategist Adam Virgadamo about the path to recovery and mispriced ...

Michael Zezas: One Fewer Election Blind Spot?

14 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Although it’s possible that the results of the 2020 U.S. election won’t come on Nov. 3rd, there is some fresh evidence that it may unfold more smo...

Mike Wilson: Investors Juggle Multiple Uncertainties

12 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Although there is uncertainty over new stimulus, a potential coronavirus second wave and the upcoming election, investors can use market volatility to...

Andrew Sheets: The New Definition of “Peak Oil”?

09 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Do tech-driven energy efficiencies—coupled with a shift in environmental attitudes—mean oil demand will fail to recover to pre-COVID levels?

Michael Zezas: Should Investors Prepare for No Stimulus?

07 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

With mixed signals coming from the White House and Congress, should investors be concerned about no further stimulus? Why there may still be good...

Mike Wilson: Rate Scare on Deck?

05 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

With a U.S. fiscal stimulus deal looking more likely, the risk of long-term interest rates moving higher has now increased—a shift that could benefi...

Andrew Sheets: How Will Markets React to a Workable Vaccine?

02 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

For markets, a vaccine may be the most significant sign the world may return to a more normal future. But what are markets pricing in currently?

Special Episode: COVID-19 Vaccine - Trials and Tribulations

01 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

COVID-19 vaccines are navigating through the last stage of clinical trials, but hurdles still lie ahead for efficacy, distribution and FDA approval.

Michael Zezas: It’s the Results That Count

30 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

How will markets react if final U.S. election results take days or weeks? Head of U.S. Public Policy Research Michael Zezas shares advice for investor...

Mike Wilson: Near-term Correction; Long-term Recovery?

28 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The recent correction may have been inevitable given rising risks for fiscal stimulus, a potential COVID-19 second wave and the upcoming election. But...

Andrew Sheets: Four Reasons to Remain Patient

25 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Despite a needed correction in recent weeks, a suite of significant risks still hangs over U.S. markets. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Shee...

Michael Zezas: Unlikely Paths to Stimulus May Interest Investors

24 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

As hopes for an additional stimulus package wane in the run-up to the U.S. elections, some of the less likely paths to a deal may provide a way out of...

Mike Wilson: A Correction with Policy Roots

21 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Action by Congress and the Fed, and its absence, has paved the way for the recent downturn in equities, putting markets back on a more sustainable foo...

Andrew Sheets: The Uncertainty of the Fed’s New Certainty

18 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

This week, the Fed announced a new framework that could keep interest rates unusually low. So why did markets collectively yawn at the announcement?

Special Episode: The ABCs of ESG ETFs

16 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

On this special edition of the podcast, Jessica Alsford, Head of the Global Sustainability Research Team talks with Michael Zezas about the important ...

Mike Wilson: Could the Correction Continue Further?

14 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Why gridlock on the next U.S stimulus package—combined with election year uncertainty—suggests there could be more downside in September and Octob...

Andrew Sheets: Markets Ponder a Trillion-Dollar Question

11 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

A downward adjustment in some high-flying U.S. tech stocks has put investors on edge this month, but an impasse on fiscal stimulus negotiations may be...

Special Episode: Why Vaccine Discovery is Just the Beginning

10 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

As COVID-19 vaccine development continues in phase three studies, the logistics of FDA approvals, production and the complex hurdles of dist...

Michael Zezas: The Waiting is the Hardest Part

09 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Could a possible delay in U.S. election night results mean volatility as markets price various outcomes for policies that impact sectors?

Mike Wilson: Putting the Market Correction in Context

08 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Although the current market correction is not wholly surprising given the outsized rally in August, what was the ultimate trigger… and what's next?

Andrew Sheets: Are Markets Really “Disconnected”?

03 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

How to explain the steady, almost mechanical rise in markets despite often weak economic data? It may come down to expectations and trend lines.

Mike Wilson: The Age of Fiscal Policy Dominance?

31 Aug 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Although consensus sees long-term interest rates staying low, could a potential $2 trillion fiscal stimulus mean rates will rise more (and faster) tha...

Michael Zezas: How Much Aid Do State/Local Governments Need?

26 Aug 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Just how big would a state and local U.S. stimulus package need to be to support a V-shaped recovery and avoid credit downgrades?

Robin Xing: China’s Next Phase - Recovery, Reshoring, Retaining

25 Aug 2020

Contributed by Lukas

China’s recovery could be progressing better than markets expected as consumers spend more money onshore and the nation’s export engine gains mark...

Mike Wilson: Are We Ripe for a U.S. Equities Correction?

24 Aug 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says although we’re likely at the beginning of a years-long cyclical bull market, one signal could be...

Andrew Sheets: What Can a Haircut Tell Us About Inflation?

21 Aug 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Markets are pricing years of lower inflation due to fallout from the pandemic. But a simple barbershop visit illustrates why that view is worth examin...

Michael Zezas: Sizing Up Democrat Corporate Tax Proposals

19 Aug 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Although U.S. presidential candidate Joe Biden has proposed an increase in corporate taxes, how likely are they to pass in their current form?

Mike Wilson: The Case for Higher Long-Term Interest Rates

17 Aug 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Although marketplace consensus believes that long-term interest rates are set to stay lower for longer, five factors suggest higher long-term rates co...

Andrew Sheets: Better to Travel Than to Arrive?

14 Aug 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Markets have been surprisingly strong of late given the delay in further stimulus in the U.S.. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets discusses th...

Michael Zezas: Rising Risks for New Stimulus?

12 Aug 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Is it the end of the road for more economic aid from Congress this year? Michael Zezas, Head of U.S. Public Policy Research breaks down the impasse an...

Reza Moghadam: The EU Recovery Fund’s Next Phase

11 Aug 2020

Contributed by Lukas

After intense negotiations, European leaders have reached a historic coronavirus recovery deal. However, the hardest challenge may lie ahead: How to s...

Andrew Sheets: The Case for Optimism in the Near Term

07 Aug 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says although their base case for continued market strength is measured, there is an argument to be made fo...

Mike Wilson: Who’s Driving The Growth in U.S. Money Supply?

03 Aug 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Growth in money supply is one of the most powerful indicators for rising inflation—and it's currently rising at record levels. How should investors ...

Andrew Sheets: A Refreshing Pause for Markets?

31 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

With the precipitous drop in U.S. GDP and the effects of monetary and fiscal interventions, the rest of third quarter may be a moment for investors to...

Michael Zezas: Considering a Potential U.S.-China Decoupling

29 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

As tensions between the U.S. and China tick higher, investors are weighing the chances of a potential U.S.-China economic decoupling—and what it mig...

Special Episode: Investment Themes for a Post-COVID World

28 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and macro trends will likely affect investing fundamentals for years to come. Our experts weigh in on seve...

Mike Wilson: Have Stocks “Pulled Forward” Too Much?

27 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Some U.S. stocks have reaped the benefits of a pull forward in demand thanks to effects of the pandemic. But with valuations rich, is a correction now...

Special Episode, Part 2: COVID-19 - How Close Are We to a Vaccine?

24 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

In the second of a special two-part episode, we talk with biotech equity analyst Matthew Harrison about market response to new data in the race for a ...

Special Episode: COVID-19 - Preparing for Fall's Second Wave

23 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

In the first of a special two part episode, we talk with biotech equity analyst Matthew Harrison about new case projections ahead of fall and flu seas...

Michael Zezas: States Look to D.C. to Fill Budget Holes

22 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Local and state governments across the U.S. are eagerly watching whether a new round of stimulus will help them address budget shortfalls. Will Congre...

Mike Wilson: Adapting to The Ninth Wonder of the World

20 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Understanding the regime of financial repression we are under, and recent changes in it, is key for successful investment. Chief Investment Officer, M...

Andrew Sheets: Bracing for Challenges Ahead

17 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

While July contains a number of potentially positive market events, August and September could present a number of potentially problematic ones.

Michael Zezas: Coronavirus - Why Another Stimulus Deal is Likely

15 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Could a new $1 trillion stimulus deal make its way through the halls of Congress before the summer recess? Why the likelihood of a deal is increasing.

Mike Wilson: U.S. Markets Weigh Optimism; Uncertainty

13 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. equities—tech stocks in particular—have powered higher since March lows, but investors are still parsing Q2 earnings, a coming election and r...

Andrew Sheets: Pressure Testing the “Overoptimistic Markets” Argument

10 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The sharp rebound in stock and corporate bond markets has made some question if markets are a bit too upbeat about a speedy recovery. There’s just o...

Michael Zezas: How Should Investors Ride a Potential “Blue Wave”?

08 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Although the U.S. election is anything but predictable four months away, investors may still want to consider how markets would react to a Democrat sw...

Mike Wilson: Is Inflation Healthy for an Economy?

06 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

While excessive inflation can be disruptive, such as in the 1970’s, a deflationary mindset can often be more destructive—and difficult to reverse....

Andrew Sheets: The Legacy of Alexander Hamilton

02 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Although Alexander Hamilton couldn’t have foreseen the current health crisis facing the U.S., his ideas remain relevant—and key to the recovery—...

Mike Wilson: Two Key Points about a U.S. Recovery

29 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Although a worrying trend in new U.S. COIVD-19 cases has some investors understandably bearish, they may be overlooking two key points about earnings ...

Special Episode, Part 2: Europe Navigates the Coronavirus

26 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Europe’s response to the coronavirus pandemic—both in managing the outbreak and in policy response—has been strong. Here’s what it means for a...

Special Episode: “Reopening” at the Tipping Point

25 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

How should investors think about the recovery as the U.S. balances reopening with concerns over a second wave of coronavirus infections?

Michael Zezas: Is Multipolarity the New Megatrend?

24 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

How should investors view a world where there may be room for more than one norm when it comes the balance of power among economies and commerce?

Mike Wilson: Investor Reactions to a More Constructive Outlook

22 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Many investors are still looking at the current recession as an anomaly rather than as the end of a cycle. Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explai...

Andrew Sheets: Is This Recession Actually… Normal?

19 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

While the macro events of the last few months are certainly extreme by the standards of history, the current business cycle may be more normal than is...

Michael Zezas: Another Round of U.S. Pandemic Relief?

17 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Two common doubts about another round of fiscal stimulus center on the politics of passage and election year strategy. Here’s why Congress could agr...

Mike Wilson: The Highs and Lows of New Bull Markets

15 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Equity markets became a bit frothy during early June as optimism over a recovery took hold. So while a correction may be afoot, it isn’t atypical fo...

Special Episode: Europe’s Moment of Solidarity

12 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The proposed €750 billion European Recovery Fund could represent more than just a recovery from COVID-19. It may also signal a new era of political ...

Michael Zezas: Unpacking the Politics of Deficits

10 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Policymakers and voters may care about deficits, but reducing current spending may not be a priority over other issues—and right now that may be a p...

Andrew Sheets: A Significant Moment for the Eurozone

09 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Over the last decade, global investors have been lukewarm toward European assets, but three encouraging developments may be set to change that investi...

Mike Wilson: Rates Play Catch-Up, Again

08 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Depressed 10-year Treasury yields and a strong dollar have tempered the bullish outlook for U.S. equities. But a shift in both suggests a V-shape reco...

Andrew Sheets: What Do Markets Reward? Progress.

05 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Why are markets climbing despite a pandemic and this week’s demonstrations across the U.S.? The answer may lie with how markets view progress.

Special Episode: The Race to a Vaccine

04 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Large cap biotech analyst Matthew Harrison talks with Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets to discuss the latest timeline for a coronavirus vacc...

Mike Wilson: Welcome to Early Cycle?

01 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Although market volatility continues to decrease, the volatility of popular momentum strategies is increasing—which suggests a coming rotation to ea...

Andrew Sheets: Does COVID-19 Change the Investing Playbook?

29 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Although the impact of the coronavirus on markets, economies and jobs is truly unprecedented, it doesn’t mean investing precedents don’t still app...

Michael Zezas: Could Cash-Strapped States Bank on Online Gaming?

27 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

As U.S. states cope with challenged finances due to the coronavirus, could some look to online gaming to fill budget gaps?

Mike Wilson: 3 Reasons Why a 2020 Recovery May Be Different

26 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Although the coronavirus recession shares traits with the 2008 financial crisis and other recessions, the rate and sustainability of a recovery could ...

Special Episode: All Hail the U.S. Consumer

22 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Will pent-up demand from U.S. consumers help drive a recovery from the coronavirus recession? A special conversation with our Chief Investment Officer...

Andrew Sheets: The Case for the Return of Inflation

21 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Why would inflation rise since the current recession means an acute shortage of demand for goods and services? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew She...

Michael Zezas: The Mechanics of Fiscal Stimulus

20 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Congress is weighing another round of fiscal stimulus, possibly by July. But the dynamics of passage in an election year could mean a narrow window to...

Mike Wilson: Financial Repression Is Alive and Well

18 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Current stock market price patterns look surprisingly similar to 2009 and the global financial crisis. The big difference for investors may be the kno...

Andrew Sheets: Are Negative Interest Rates Coming to the U.S. and UK?

15 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

As markets have begun to price expectations for negative rates in Britain and the U.S., Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets breaks down the pot...

Special Episode: Lessons and Limits of China’s Recovery

14 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

What China’s rebound from COVID-19 can—and can’t—tell us about the path, speed and pitfalls of economic reopening for other countries. Chief C...

Michael Zezas: COVID-19 Sparks Renewed U.S.-China Trade Tensions

13 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Can the Phase One trade deal détente stand, or will the U.S. and China return to a cycle of escalating tariffs that may impact prospects of a rebound...

Mike Wilson: U is for Unicorn

11 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Amid investor speculation about the shape of a recovery, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson urges a standard recession playbook.

Special Episode, Part 2: Markets Eye Climbing Government Deficits

08 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

How should an investor evaluate the issue of high levels of government debt as nations battle the impact of the coronavirus? A deep dive into the deba...

Special Episode: Recovering from the Stimulus

07 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

How can we best coordinate policy to support a timely recovery and what lessons can we learn from the past? Chief Global Economist Chetan Ahya and Chi...

Michael Zezas: Fixing a Hole (in State Budgets)

06 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The hole in U.S. state budgets caused by coronavirus-driven revenue shortfalls will likely affect more than just muni bond investors. Head of Public P...

Mike Wilson: A Pause that Refreshes

04 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

As the rally in U.S. equities takes a break, investors may want to position for "early cycle." And that means re-thinking portfolios just as downbeat ...

Andrew Sheets: The Disconnect Between Economies and Markets

01 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Why did April’s stock market gains seem oddly disconnected from recent poor economic data? Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets has the answer...

Matthew Hornbach: A Change of Fortune for the U.S. Dollar?

30 Apr 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Consensus on the dollar has been bearish for years, only to be proven wrong time after time. But Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach says t...

Michael Zezas: Could U.S. State Governments Go Bankrupt?

29 Apr 2020

Contributed by Lukas

As Congress debates aid for state governments, for investors, the principal concern is that a lack of additional federal aid might further depress sta...

Mike Wilson: Staying Ahead of the (Flattening) Curve

27 Apr 2020

Contributed by Lukas

As some states begin to loosen quarantine restrictions, "stay at home stocks" may no longer be the place to be. Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson e...

Andrew Sheets: Even in a Crisis, the Cycle Still Matters

24 Apr 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Investment strategies tied to the business cycle are still relevant, especially as our key internal indicator shows the cycle has moved into a new pha...