Thoughts on the Market
Episodes
Mike Wilson: A Tougher Road Ahead for Small Caps?
15 Mar 2021
Contributed by Lukas
After almost a year of extraordinary outperformance, could small caps could see more difficulties ahead as re-opening dynamics up the risk of cost pre...
Andrew Sheets: A Complicated 2021 for Emerging Markets?
12 Mar 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With global growth set to exceed expectations in 2021, emerging markets assets would appear set for outperformance. But this year, three factors cloud...
Special Episode: Markets and the Next Big Debate - Infrastructure
11 Mar 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Conversations around the “Build Back Better” U.S. infrastructure plan are ramping up. What do investors need to know about its potential impact on...
Michael Zezas: Policy Trends Are Now Portfolio Trends
10 Mar 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Why the ongoing dynamics of trade, fiscal policy, taxation and geopolitical tensions mean investors need to focus on more than just the Fed and the bu...
Special Episode: Markets Ahead of Reopening - What’s Mispriced?
09 Mar 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Ahead of a possible re-opening, which companies might retain gains seen in the pandemic, which will revert to pre-COVID norms and which are mispriced?
Mike Wilson: Still a Bull Under the Hood
08 Mar 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The current correction may be driven in part by the rise in U.S. Treasuries yields, but Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson still sees a bull market ...
Andrew Sheets: The Great Debate on Rates
05 Mar 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Do higher interest rates invariably lead to weaker equities and credit markets? The answer is a bit more complicated after factoring in economic ...
Special Episode: U.S. Home Prices - Is This Time Different?
04 Mar 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Home prices have been steadily climbing all across the U.S. How should Americans think about home prices, rising interest rates and affordability...
Michael Zezas: 3 Potential Impacts of “Build Back Better”
03 Mar 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The stage is set for the Biden administration’s major infrastructure and environment initiative. Here's what investors need to know about the road a...
Vishy Tirupattur: Can We Get Real on Rates?
02 Mar 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Although a shift to higher interest rates is noteworthy, historically, rising rates coupled with rising inflation may actually suggest better performa...
Mike Wilson: Positioning for Higher Interest Rates
01 Mar 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Which sectors could benefit from an era of rising inflation and higher interest rates? Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson shares the outlook fo...
Andrew Sheets: ‘Buy Low, Sell High’ May (Finally) Apply Again
26 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Some traditional market aphorisms seem to have been in abeyance, but with bond yields rising, the old rules are starting to apply again.
Special Episode: The Texas Grid and the Future of Energy
25 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
What really happened during the Texas grid crisis and what does it say about the transition to clean energy and the future of utilities in America?
Michael Zezas: A Reset for U.S.-Mexico Trade?
24 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Although markets appear more confident that U.S-Mexico trade tensions are largely in the past, investors shouldn't discount potential risks.
Ben Swinburne: Media Eyes the Great Reopening
23 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Media and entertainment had a tricky 2020 with lockdowns pulling forward years of growth for some companies—and challenges to others. So, what ...
Mike Wilson: An Eye on Bull Market Surprises
22 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
U.S. equities markets have continued to perform well, fueled by upbeat earnings and vaccination news. However, that’s often when surprises aris...
Andrew Sheets: The Risk of Rising Rates
19 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Whether the anticipated fiscal stimulus in the U.S. will be enough to push the economy into inflationary territory, and if we should be concerned abou...
Special Episode: Europe’s Economic Scarring Post-Pandemic
18 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Recessions can create long-term scars on labor, investment and the pace of innovation. Is Europe more prepared to lessen COVID-related economic scarri...
Michael Zezas: What’s Next for U.S.-China Trade?
17 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Concerns about the state of U.S.-China trade relations dominated investor thinking in 2018 and 2019. What’s the path forward for the Biden administr...
Adam Jonas: Space - The Disruption of All Disruptions?
16 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The scientific race toward quantum communication is already underway. A look at why the global space economy will be critical to its development.
Andrew Sheets: With Gold, the Narrative Matters
12 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Gold is sometimes perceived by investors as a good hedge against inflation, however its track record in this capacity is worth a closer look.
COVID-19: Variants, Vaccines and the Road Ahead
11 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
We dive into what’s ahead amid competing news headlines on the improving pace of vaccinations and worries over new variants.
Special Episode: The Debate over U.S. Fiscal Stimulus and Inflation
10 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Michael Zezas, Head of U.S. Public Policy Research and Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy, discuss the impact of stimulus and inflation o...
Chetan Ahya: The Fed, Stimulus and “The High-Pressure Economy”
09 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
If you’re not familiar with the concept of a high-pressure economy, now might be a good time to get acquainted. A new forecast for the U.S. economy.
Mike Wilson: Was January a Roadmap for 2021?
08 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Historically speaking, as goes January, so goes the year. Here’s why higher volatility and dispersion of returns between sectors and stocks may defi...
Andrew Sheets: Why U.S. Bond Yields Could Keep Rising
05 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
10-yr bond yields could rise by about 0.5% in 2021, but the potentially record amount of government bond issuance may not be the driver.
Special Episode: The Shifting Dynamics of Oil and Energy
04 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Two big stories are underway in oil and energy markets: changing supply and demand factors amid COVID-19 vaccinations and the impact of ESG considerat...
Michael Zezas: A Possible Path for Pandemic Relief?
03 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Republicans and Democrats are still far apart on the shape of a new fiscal stimulus bill, but that doesn’t mean a pathway to passage isn’t emergin...
Shawn Kim: Asia Tech at the Dawn of a New Cycle
02 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
What Asia tech trends should investors be watching in the year ahead? Shawn Kim, Head of Asia Technology Research, shares five key themes for 2021.
Mike Wilson: Why This Isn’t Dot-Com Bubble Redux
01 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Although last week's market correction was long overdue (and perhaps not finished), two differences separate the tech bubble of 1999-2000 and the pres...
Andrew Sheets: The Short-selling Drama - Sideshow or Main Event?
29 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
A handful of heavily shorted stocks took markets for a bit of ride this week. Does it say something larger about the future direction of equities mark...
Special Episode: Where is Consumer Spending Trending?
28 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
On this episode, we look at the evolution of U.S. consumer spending trends—and parallel investment themes—as COVID-19 vaccines roll out this year.
Michael Zezas: U.S. Stimulus Twists and Turns
27 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
When it comes to the next round of U.S. fiscal stimulus, in the near term it may be the journey that moves markets, not the destination.
Mike Wilson: An Overexuberant Bull?
26 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
It’s hard to ignore that pockets of excess have developed in financial markets. While past is not always prologue, a look back at the global financi...
Special Episode: U.S. Housing and Credit Outlook 2021
22 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Data on housing supply, demand, affordability and credit availability paint an optimistic picture for U.S. housing. We dive into the outlook for resid...
Andrew Sheets: The Case for Optimism in 2021
21 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Investors are keeping a worried eye on the pandemic, expensive stock valuations and potentially higher inflation. But even in these areas there may be...
Michael Zezas: 3 U.S. Policy Forecasts… and a Wild Card
20 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
As a Democratic administration takes the reins in the White House and Congress, what policy moves should investors expect?
Mike Wilson: Time to Leave the Pack Behind?
19 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Investors have become infatuated with the S&P 500, but a rotation to new leadership suggests a look toward stocks that have been off the radar.
Special Episode: Rates and FX Markets Eye the U.S. Policy Path
15 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
As Congress and a new administration ponder new stimulus to navigate the pandemic, what will 2021 look like for FX and government bond markets?
Andrew Sheets: Rates and Inflation - Moving for the Right Reasons?
14 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Rising yields and inflation can create anxiety for investors, but the impact depends on why they’re rising. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Shee...
Adam Virgadamo: 5 Equities Investment Themes for 2021
13 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
As vaccines continue to roll out and the world eyes a return to normal, several key themes are emerging that could shape investment returns.
Reza Moghadam: High Noon at the ECB Corral
12 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Does a robust recovery in 2021 spell the end of European Central Bank action? One inconvenient fact may stand in the way: the lackluster rise in ...
Mike Wilson: So… What Isn’t Priced-In?
11 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Although 2021 is likely to be a better year economically, asset markets may not repeat the remarkable run of the past 9 months. So where sho...
Special Episode: Are the Clouds Clearing for European Equities?
08 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Why a reflationary backdrop in 2021 could provide a boost to Europe’s cyclical value stocks. A look at the year ahead with Graham Secker, Head of th...
Andrew Sheets: Three Implications of the “Blue Wave”
07 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains why a Democrat sweep of Congress and the White House suggests more reflation and rotation in portf...
Michael Zezas: Georgia Changes the Game
07 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With wins called for both Senate runoff elections in Georgia, Democrats are poised to control the Presidency and both chambers of Congress. What does ...
Reza Moghadam: New Year, New Europe
05 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With Brexit finally a reality, Chief Economic Advisor Reza Moghadam details key elements of the agreement—and the resulting market implications for ...
Mike Wilson: Strategically Riding the Bull in 2021
04 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With valuations high, where will markets look to discount next? A look at some key themes developing in this new bull market.
Michael Zezas: What’s Ahead for U.S. Policy in 2021?
23 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Two events could change the trajectory of fiscal policy in 2021: the need to raise the debt ceiling and the coming expiry of key corporate tax breaks.
Special Episode: What’s in Store for ESG Investing?
22 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On this special edition of the podcast, we discuss the outlook for sustainability and ESG investing in 2021 with some key themes for investors to watc...
Mike Wilson: An Exhaustion Point for Good News?
21 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Markets often don't need a concrete reason to sell-off or rally. Sometimes it's just exhaustion of a trend that has carried too far.
Andrew Sheets: Unwrapping the Impact of Price Sensitivity
18 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
A look at why investors should be mindful that seemingly small changes in yields can mean big swings in the prices of assets.
Corporate Credit 2021: A Shift to High Yield
17 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Vishy Tirupattur, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks with Andrew Sheets about why corporate credit investors could see better returns in the high yi...
Michael Zezas: All Eyes on Georgia
16 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Bond investors may want to watch Georgia’s upcoming Senate runoff elections since Democrat wins could mean more fiscal expansion… and a potential ...
Asia Equities 2021: Positioning Is Key
16 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Why COVID-19, tech disruption and a shift to a more multipolar world may require a more tactical approach to the region in 2021.
Mike Wilson: Getting Ahead of 2021 Leadership Shifts
14 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Small caps and cyclicals outperformed significantly this year, particularly after announcement of a vaccine. Which factors could see momentum in 2021?
Special Episode: As a Vaccine Rolls-Out, What’s Next?
14 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although the first COVID-19 vaccine has now begun distribution in the U.S., the country still faces alarming numbers of new cases. We dive into the lo...
Andrew Sheets: Why Rates Will Rise Next Year, and Why the Fed Will Let Them
10 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Many are skeptical of substantial rise in long term interest rates in the coming year, but we think market pressures will push them up more than the c...
Michael Zezas: Can Congress Break the Stimulus Logjam?
09 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Congress is making progress on a COVID fiscal relief package, but previous efforts to strike a deal haven’t borne fruit. Why this time may be differ...
Mike Wilson: Closing the Books on 2020
07 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Despite a year of high uncertainty, 2020 may end as a strong year for nearly every asset class—which means it may be time to step back and take a br...
Andrew Sheets: Corporate Credit’s Surprising Resiliency
04 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Corporate credit defaults have been relatively low considering the outsized shock of COVID-19. Do muted default rates also mean a muted recovery?
Michael Zezas: What Happens Next on U.S.-China Trade?
02 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Will a Biden administration mean a reduction of trade barriers between the U.S. and China. The answer for investors: like most questions on trade...
China 2021: The Consumer Roars Back
01 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
China’s consumers could emerge as a key GDP growth driver in 2021, fueled by COVID-19 vaccine availability, a recovery in the job market and pent-up...
Mike Wilson: A November to Remember
30 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Markets have spent November celebrating upbeat vaccine news and closure on U.S. election uncertainty. After a strong month, are equities headed for an...
Andrew Sheets: Are Emerging Markets Reemerging?
27 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Emerging market assets are poised to redeem some of their historic underperformance in 2021, but not all assets and indices in the class are equally p...
Michael Zezas: The Real Risk of Fed/Treasury Conflict
25 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
A rare open disagreement between the Fed and the Treasury may have policy implications in the longer term. Michael Zezas, Head of U.S. Public Policy R...
U.S. Outlook 2021: Momentum Toward Recovery
24 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although the U.S. faces a challenging winter, vaccine availability and momentum could propel the economy to expand an impressive 6% in 2021. The forec...
Mike Wilson: Giving Thanks for a Brighter 2021
23 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As Thanksgiving approaches in the U.S., it’s worth taking a moment to be thankful for potential vaccines, a remarkably resilient economy and the str...
Special Episode: 2021 Global Outlook
21 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Global economies are set for next phase of a V-shaped recovery in both developed and emerging markets. Why that could be good news for equities and cr...
Michael Zezas: Will D.C. Rein In Big Tech?
18 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Washington D.C. has become increasingly interested in tech regulation, but what’s the likelihood in the next two years? And what could it mean ...
Mike Wilson: 2021 Preview - A Bull with Room to Run
16 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although near-term worries about the coronavirus and higher interest rates could challenge company valuations, the 12-month U.S. equities outlook may ...
Andrew Sheets: An Artificial Calm?
13 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Confidence in the ability of central bank to suppress market volatility through aggressive policy may be misplaced.
Matt Hornbach: 2021 - Another Big Year for Liquidity?
12 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
G10 central banks could inject another $2.8 trillion of liquidity next year—over twice the amount in any year prior to this one. How will this impac...
Michael Zezas: Vaccine-driven Rebound Could Help Munis
11 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although improving economic growth and rising inflation could present challenges for bond investors, “re-opening” could bring benefit for municipa...
Reza Moghadam: Amid Lockdowns, Europe Looks to a Vaccine
10 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although COVID-19 new case rates have been climbing in Europe, the impact of this second wave may not be as severe this time around.
Mike Wilson: Markets Cheer Clarity on Vaccine, Election
09 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Upbeat news on a coronavirus vaccine and a win for President-elect Biden drive stocks significantly higher. How should investors trade a potentially e...
Special Episode: Markets Parse Election Results, Jobs Report
06 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
All eyes are on the U.S. Presidential race as markets also weigh climbing coronavirus cases in the U.S., fiscal stimulus uncertainty and October’s j...
Michael Zezas: Breaking - Why Post-Election Day Just Got Trickier
05 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Amidst the uncertainty, three topics should be front of mind for investors: implications of a divided government, the path to fiscal stimulus and tax ...
Mike Wilson: Is the Worst of the Correction Over?
02 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although some volatility may lie ahead, the end of the U.S. election cycle and progress on a potential coronavirus vaccine may bring some optimism to ...
Andrew Sheets: A Transformational Sweep?
30 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
A look at the 2008 and 2016 U.S. elections suggests that a sweep by either Democrats or Republicans could push stocks and bond yields higher in 2021.
Michael Zezas: Election Night Strategy for Investors
28 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
For investors, election night could hinge on moments when markets conclude who has won, not necessarily on when media networks call a winner.
Mike Wilson: 3 Sticking Points for U.S. Equities
26 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
U.S. equity markets have been stuck range bound due to three key concerns, but investors could use that uncertainty to their advantage.
U.S. Election 2020: Divided Government Scenarios
23 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
In part two of our special election episode, we look at the policies that could potentially come out of divided party control among the White House, S...
U.S. Election 2020: Straightaways and Detours
22 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
What is the road ahead for global markets between now and inauguration day? The answer may fall into two categories: straightaways and detours. Part o...
Michael Zezas: What's Going On With The U.S. Bond Market?
21 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries are now at multi-month highs, prompting some investors to ask “What’s going on?” Analysis from...
Mike Wilson: Why the Correction May Not Be Over
19 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Uncertainty about fiscal stimulus, the U.S. election and the pandemic could mean the correction isn’t over. However, one thematic opportunity could ...
Andrew Sheets: Are Markets Pricing-In Recent U.S. Election Polls?
16 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although many investors view markets as a highly efficient prognostic machine, the surprises of the 2016 election may have created more hesitancy to g...
Special Episode: Playing the Reopening and Recovery Into 2021
15 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On this Special Episode, Chief U.S. Economist Ellen Zentner talks with U.S. Equity Strategist Adam Virgadamo about the path to recovery and mispriced ...
Michael Zezas: One Fewer Election Blind Spot?
14 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although it’s possible that the results of the 2020 U.S. election won’t come on Nov. 3rd, there is some fresh evidence that it may unfold more smo...
Mike Wilson: Investors Juggle Multiple Uncertainties
12 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although there is uncertainty over new stimulus, a potential coronavirus second wave and the upcoming election, investors can use market volatility to...
Andrew Sheets: The New Definition of “Peak Oil”?
09 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Do tech-driven energy efficiencies—coupled with a shift in environmental attitudes—mean oil demand will fail to recover to pre-COVID levels?
Michael Zezas: Should Investors Prepare for No Stimulus?
07 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
With mixed signals coming from the White House and Congress, should investors be concerned about no further stimulus? Why there may still be good...
Mike Wilson: Rate Scare on Deck?
05 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
With a U.S. fiscal stimulus deal looking more likely, the risk of long-term interest rates moving higher has now increased—a shift that could benefi...
Andrew Sheets: How Will Markets React to a Workable Vaccine?
02 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
For markets, a vaccine may be the most significant sign the world may return to a more normal future. But what are markets pricing in currently?
Special Episode: COVID-19 Vaccine - Trials and Tribulations
01 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
COVID-19 vaccines are navigating through the last stage of clinical trials, but hurdles still lie ahead for efficacy, distribution and FDA approval.
Michael Zezas: It’s the Results That Count
30 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
How will markets react if final U.S. election results take days or weeks? Head of U.S. Public Policy Research Michael Zezas shares advice for investor...
Mike Wilson: Near-term Correction; Long-term Recovery?
28 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The recent correction may have been inevitable given rising risks for fiscal stimulus, a potential COVID-19 second wave and the upcoming election. But...
Andrew Sheets: Four Reasons to Remain Patient
25 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Despite a needed correction in recent weeks, a suite of significant risks still hangs over U.S. markets. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Shee...
Michael Zezas: Unlikely Paths to Stimulus May Interest Investors
24 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As hopes for an additional stimulus package wane in the run-up to the U.S. elections, some of the less likely paths to a deal may provide a way out of...
Mike Wilson: A Correction with Policy Roots
21 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Action by Congress and the Fed, and its absence, has paved the way for the recent downturn in equities, putting markets back on a more sustainable foo...