Thoughts on the Market
Episodes
Mike Wilson: An Overexuberant Bull?
26 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
It’s hard to ignore that pockets of excess have developed in financial markets. While past is not always prologue, a look back at the global financi...
Special Episode: U.S. Housing and Credit Outlook 2021
22 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Data on housing supply, demand, affordability and credit availability paint an optimistic picture for U.S. housing. We dive into the outlook for resid...
Andrew Sheets: The Case for Optimism in 2021
21 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Investors are keeping a worried eye on the pandemic, expensive stock valuations and potentially higher inflation. But even in these areas there may be...
Michael Zezas: 3 U.S. Policy Forecasts… and a Wild Card
20 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
As a Democratic administration takes the reins in the White House and Congress, what policy moves should investors expect?
Mike Wilson: Time to Leave the Pack Behind?
19 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Investors have become infatuated with the S&P 500, but a rotation to new leadership suggests a look toward stocks that have been off the radar.
Special Episode: Rates and FX Markets Eye the U.S. Policy Path
15 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
As Congress and a new administration ponder new stimulus to navigate the pandemic, what will 2021 look like for FX and government bond markets?
Andrew Sheets: Rates and Inflation - Moving for the Right Reasons?
14 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Rising yields and inflation can create anxiety for investors, but the impact depends on why they’re rising. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Shee...
Adam Virgadamo: 5 Equities Investment Themes for 2021
13 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
As vaccines continue to roll out and the world eyes a return to normal, several key themes are emerging that could shape investment returns.
Reza Moghadam: High Noon at the ECB Corral
12 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Does a robust recovery in 2021 spell the end of European Central Bank action? One inconvenient fact may stand in the way: the lackluster rise in ...
Mike Wilson: So… What Isn’t Priced-In?
11 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Although 2021 is likely to be a better year economically, asset markets may not repeat the remarkable run of the past 9 months. So where sho...
Special Episode: Are the Clouds Clearing for European Equities?
08 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Why a reflationary backdrop in 2021 could provide a boost to Europe’s cyclical value stocks. A look at the year ahead with Graham Secker, Head of th...
Andrew Sheets: Three Implications of the “Blue Wave”
07 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains why a Democrat sweep of Congress and the White House suggests more reflation and rotation in portf...
Michael Zezas: Georgia Changes the Game
07 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With wins called for both Senate runoff elections in Georgia, Democrats are poised to control the Presidency and both chambers of Congress. What does ...
Reza Moghadam: New Year, New Europe
05 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With Brexit finally a reality, Chief Economic Advisor Reza Moghadam details key elements of the agreement—and the resulting market implications for ...
Mike Wilson: Strategically Riding the Bull in 2021
04 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With valuations high, where will markets look to discount next? A look at some key themes developing in this new bull market.
Michael Zezas: What’s Ahead for U.S. Policy in 2021?
23 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Two events could change the trajectory of fiscal policy in 2021: the need to raise the debt ceiling and the coming expiry of key corporate tax breaks.
Special Episode: What’s in Store for ESG Investing?
22 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On this special edition of the podcast, we discuss the outlook for sustainability and ESG investing in 2021 with some key themes for investors to watc...
Mike Wilson: An Exhaustion Point for Good News?
21 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Markets often don't need a concrete reason to sell-off or rally. Sometimes it's just exhaustion of a trend that has carried too far.
Andrew Sheets: Unwrapping the Impact of Price Sensitivity
18 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
A look at why investors should be mindful that seemingly small changes in yields can mean big swings in the prices of assets.
Corporate Credit 2021: A Shift to High Yield
17 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Vishy Tirupattur, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks with Andrew Sheets about why corporate credit investors could see better returns in the high yi...
Michael Zezas: All Eyes on Georgia
16 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Bond investors may want to watch Georgia’s upcoming Senate runoff elections since Democrat wins could mean more fiscal expansion… and a potential ...
Asia Equities 2021: Positioning Is Key
16 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Why COVID-19, tech disruption and a shift to a more multipolar world may require a more tactical approach to the region in 2021.
Mike Wilson: Getting Ahead of 2021 Leadership Shifts
14 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Small caps and cyclicals outperformed significantly this year, particularly after announcement of a vaccine. Which factors could see momentum in 2021?
Special Episode: As a Vaccine Rolls-Out, What’s Next?
14 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although the first COVID-19 vaccine has now begun distribution in the U.S., the country still faces alarming numbers of new cases. We dive into the lo...
Andrew Sheets: Why Rates Will Rise Next Year, and Why the Fed Will Let Them
10 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Many are skeptical of substantial rise in long term interest rates in the coming year, but we think market pressures will push them up more than the c...
Michael Zezas: Can Congress Break the Stimulus Logjam?
09 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Congress is making progress on a COVID fiscal relief package, but previous efforts to strike a deal haven’t borne fruit. Why this time may be differ...
Mike Wilson: Closing the Books on 2020
07 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Despite a year of high uncertainty, 2020 may end as a strong year for nearly every asset class—which means it may be time to step back and take a br...
Andrew Sheets: Corporate Credit’s Surprising Resiliency
04 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Corporate credit defaults have been relatively low considering the outsized shock of COVID-19. Do muted default rates also mean a muted recovery?
Michael Zezas: What Happens Next on U.S.-China Trade?
02 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Will a Biden administration mean a reduction of trade barriers between the U.S. and China. The answer for investors: like most questions on trade...
China 2021: The Consumer Roars Back
01 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
China’s consumers could emerge as a key GDP growth driver in 2021, fueled by COVID-19 vaccine availability, a recovery in the job market and pent-up...
Mike Wilson: A November to Remember
30 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Markets have spent November celebrating upbeat vaccine news and closure on U.S. election uncertainty. After a strong month, are equities headed for an...
Andrew Sheets: Are Emerging Markets Reemerging?
27 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Emerging market assets are poised to redeem some of their historic underperformance in 2021, but not all assets and indices in the class are equally p...
Michael Zezas: The Real Risk of Fed/Treasury Conflict
25 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
A rare open disagreement between the Fed and the Treasury may have policy implications in the longer term. Michael Zezas, Head of U.S. Public Policy R...
U.S. Outlook 2021: Momentum Toward Recovery
24 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although the U.S. faces a challenging winter, vaccine availability and momentum could propel the economy to expand an impressive 6% in 2021. The forec...
Mike Wilson: Giving Thanks for a Brighter 2021
23 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As Thanksgiving approaches in the U.S., it’s worth taking a moment to be thankful for potential vaccines, a remarkably resilient economy and the str...
Special Episode: 2021 Global Outlook
21 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Global economies are set for next phase of a V-shaped recovery in both developed and emerging markets. Why that could be good news for equities and cr...
Michael Zezas: Will D.C. Rein In Big Tech?
18 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Washington D.C. has become increasingly interested in tech regulation, but what’s the likelihood in the next two years? And what could it mean ...
Mike Wilson: 2021 Preview - A Bull with Room to Run
16 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although near-term worries about the coronavirus and higher interest rates could challenge company valuations, the 12-month U.S. equities outlook may ...
Andrew Sheets: An Artificial Calm?
13 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Confidence in the ability of central bank to suppress market volatility through aggressive policy may be misplaced.
Matt Hornbach: 2021 - Another Big Year for Liquidity?
12 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
G10 central banks could inject another $2.8 trillion of liquidity next year—over twice the amount in any year prior to this one. How will this impac...
Michael Zezas: Vaccine-driven Rebound Could Help Munis
11 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although improving economic growth and rising inflation could present challenges for bond investors, “re-opening” could bring benefit for municipa...
Reza Moghadam: Amid Lockdowns, Europe Looks to a Vaccine
10 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although COVID-19 new case rates have been climbing in Europe, the impact of this second wave may not be as severe this time around.
Mike Wilson: Markets Cheer Clarity on Vaccine, Election
09 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Upbeat news on a coronavirus vaccine and a win for President-elect Biden drive stocks significantly higher. How should investors trade a potentially e...
Special Episode: Markets Parse Election Results, Jobs Report
06 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
All eyes are on the U.S. Presidential race as markets also weigh climbing coronavirus cases in the U.S., fiscal stimulus uncertainty and October’s j...
Michael Zezas: Breaking - Why Post-Election Day Just Got Trickier
05 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Amidst the uncertainty, three topics should be front of mind for investors: implications of a divided government, the path to fiscal stimulus and tax ...
Mike Wilson: Is the Worst of the Correction Over?
02 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although some volatility may lie ahead, the end of the U.S. election cycle and progress on a potential coronavirus vaccine may bring some optimism to ...
Andrew Sheets: A Transformational Sweep?
30 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
A look at the 2008 and 2016 U.S. elections suggests that a sweep by either Democrats or Republicans could push stocks and bond yields higher in 2021.
Michael Zezas: Election Night Strategy for Investors
28 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
For investors, election night could hinge on moments when markets conclude who has won, not necessarily on when media networks call a winner.
Mike Wilson: 3 Sticking Points for U.S. Equities
26 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
U.S. equity markets have been stuck range bound due to three key concerns, but investors could use that uncertainty to their advantage.
U.S. Election 2020: Divided Government Scenarios
23 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
In part two of our special election episode, we look at the policies that could potentially come out of divided party control among the White House, S...
U.S. Election 2020: Straightaways and Detours
22 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
What is the road ahead for global markets between now and inauguration day? The answer may fall into two categories: straightaways and detours. Part o...
Michael Zezas: What's Going On With The U.S. Bond Market?
21 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries are now at multi-month highs, prompting some investors to ask “What’s going on?” Analysis from...
Mike Wilson: Why the Correction May Not Be Over
19 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Uncertainty about fiscal stimulus, the U.S. election and the pandemic could mean the correction isn’t over. However, one thematic opportunity could ...
Andrew Sheets: Are Markets Pricing-In Recent U.S. Election Polls?
16 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although many investors view markets as a highly efficient prognostic machine, the surprises of the 2016 election may have created more hesitancy to g...
Special Episode: Playing the Reopening and Recovery Into 2021
15 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On this Special Episode, Chief U.S. Economist Ellen Zentner talks with U.S. Equity Strategist Adam Virgadamo about the path to recovery and mispriced ...
Michael Zezas: One Fewer Election Blind Spot?
14 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although it’s possible that the results of the 2020 U.S. election won’t come on Nov. 3rd, there is some fresh evidence that it may unfold more smo...
Mike Wilson: Investors Juggle Multiple Uncertainties
12 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although there is uncertainty over new stimulus, a potential coronavirus second wave and the upcoming election, investors can use market volatility to...
Andrew Sheets: The New Definition of “Peak Oil”?
09 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Do tech-driven energy efficiencies—coupled with a shift in environmental attitudes—mean oil demand will fail to recover to pre-COVID levels?
Michael Zezas: Should Investors Prepare for No Stimulus?
07 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
With mixed signals coming from the White House and Congress, should investors be concerned about no further stimulus? Why there may still be good...
Mike Wilson: Rate Scare on Deck?
05 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
With a U.S. fiscal stimulus deal looking more likely, the risk of long-term interest rates moving higher has now increased—a shift that could benefi...
Andrew Sheets: How Will Markets React to a Workable Vaccine?
02 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
For markets, a vaccine may be the most significant sign the world may return to a more normal future. But what are markets pricing in currently?
Special Episode: COVID-19 Vaccine - Trials and Tribulations
01 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
COVID-19 vaccines are navigating through the last stage of clinical trials, but hurdles still lie ahead for efficacy, distribution and FDA approval.
Michael Zezas: It’s the Results That Count
30 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
How will markets react if final U.S. election results take days or weeks? Head of U.S. Public Policy Research Michael Zezas shares advice for investor...
Mike Wilson: Near-term Correction; Long-term Recovery?
28 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The recent correction may have been inevitable given rising risks for fiscal stimulus, a potential COVID-19 second wave and the upcoming election. But...
Andrew Sheets: Four Reasons to Remain Patient
25 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Despite a needed correction in recent weeks, a suite of significant risks still hangs over U.S. markets. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Shee...
Michael Zezas: Unlikely Paths to Stimulus May Interest Investors
24 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As hopes for an additional stimulus package wane in the run-up to the U.S. elections, some of the less likely paths to a deal may provide a way out of...
Mike Wilson: A Correction with Policy Roots
21 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Action by Congress and the Fed, and its absence, has paved the way for the recent downturn in equities, putting markets back on a more sustainable foo...
Andrew Sheets: The Uncertainty of the Fed’s New Certainty
18 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
This week, the Fed announced a new framework that could keep interest rates unusually low. So why did markets collectively yawn at the announcement?
Special Episode: The ABCs of ESG ETFs
16 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
On this special edition of the podcast, Jessica Alsford, Head of the Global Sustainability Research Team talks with Michael Zezas about the important ...
Mike Wilson: Could the Correction Continue Further?
14 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Why gridlock on the next U.S stimulus package—combined with election year uncertainty—suggests there could be more downside in September and Octob...
Andrew Sheets: Markets Ponder a Trillion-Dollar Question
11 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
A downward adjustment in some high-flying U.S. tech stocks has put investors on edge this month, but an impasse on fiscal stimulus negotiations may be...
Special Episode: Why Vaccine Discovery is Just the Beginning
10 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As COVID-19 vaccine development continues in phase three studies, the logistics of FDA approvals, production and the complex hurdles of dist...
Michael Zezas: The Waiting is the Hardest Part
09 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Could a possible delay in U.S. election night results mean volatility as markets price various outcomes for policies that impact sectors?
Mike Wilson: Putting the Market Correction in Context
08 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although the current market correction is not wholly surprising given the outsized rally in August, what was the ultimate trigger… and what's next?
Andrew Sheets: Are Markets Really “Disconnected”?
03 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
How to explain the steady, almost mechanical rise in markets despite often weak economic data? It may come down to expectations and trend lines.
Mike Wilson: The Age of Fiscal Policy Dominance?
31 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although consensus sees long-term interest rates staying low, could a potential $2 trillion fiscal stimulus mean rates will rise more (and faster) tha...
Michael Zezas: How Much Aid Do State/Local Governments Need?
26 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Just how big would a state and local U.S. stimulus package need to be to support a V-shaped recovery and avoid credit downgrades?
Robin Xing: China’s Next Phase - Recovery, Reshoring, Retaining
25 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
China’s recovery could be progressing better than markets expected as consumers spend more money onshore and the nation’s export engine gains mark...
Mike Wilson: Are We Ripe for a U.S. Equities Correction?
24 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says although we’re likely at the beginning of a years-long cyclical bull market, one signal could be...
Andrew Sheets: What Can a Haircut Tell Us About Inflation?
21 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Markets are pricing years of lower inflation due to fallout from the pandemic. But a simple barbershop visit illustrates why that view is worth examin...
Michael Zezas: Sizing Up Democrat Corporate Tax Proposals
19 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although U.S. presidential candidate Joe Biden has proposed an increase in corporate taxes, how likely are they to pass in their current form?
Mike Wilson: The Case for Higher Long-Term Interest Rates
17 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although marketplace consensus believes that long-term interest rates are set to stay lower for longer, five factors suggest higher long-term rates co...
Andrew Sheets: Better to Travel Than to Arrive?
14 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Markets have been surprisingly strong of late given the delay in further stimulus in the U.S.. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets discusses th...
Michael Zezas: Rising Risks for New Stimulus?
12 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Is it the end of the road for more economic aid from Congress this year? Michael Zezas, Head of U.S. Public Policy Research breaks down the impasse an...
Reza Moghadam: The EU Recovery Fund’s Next Phase
11 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
After intense negotiations, European leaders have reached a historic coronavirus recovery deal. However, the hardest challenge may lie ahead: How to s...
Andrew Sheets: The Case for Optimism in the Near Term
07 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says although their base case for continued market strength is measured, there is an argument to be made fo...
Mike Wilson: Who’s Driving The Growth in U.S. Money Supply?
03 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Growth in money supply is one of the most powerful indicators for rising inflation—and it's currently rising at record levels. How should investors ...
Andrew Sheets: A Refreshing Pause for Markets?
31 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
With the precipitous drop in U.S. GDP and the effects of monetary and fiscal interventions, the rest of third quarter may be a moment for investors to...
Michael Zezas: Considering a Potential U.S.-China Decoupling
29 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As tensions between the U.S. and China tick higher, investors are weighing the chances of a potential U.S.-China economic decoupling—and what it mig...
Special Episode: Investment Themes for a Post-COVID World
28 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and macro trends will likely affect investing fundamentals for years to come. Our experts weigh in on seve...
Mike Wilson: Have Stocks “Pulled Forward” Too Much?
27 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Some U.S. stocks have reaped the benefits of a pull forward in demand thanks to effects of the pandemic. But with valuations rich, is a correction now...
Special Episode, Part 2: COVID-19 - How Close Are We to a Vaccine?
24 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
In the second of a special two-part episode, we talk with biotech equity analyst Matthew Harrison about market response to new data in the race for a ...
Special Episode: COVID-19 - Preparing for Fall's Second Wave
23 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
In the first of a special two part episode, we talk with biotech equity analyst Matthew Harrison about new case projections ahead of fall and flu seas...
Michael Zezas: States Look to D.C. to Fill Budget Holes
22 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Local and state governments across the U.S. are eagerly watching whether a new round of stimulus will help them address budget shortfalls. Will Congre...
Mike Wilson: Adapting to The Ninth Wonder of the World
20 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Understanding the regime of financial repression we are under, and recent changes in it, is key for successful investment. Chief Investment Officer, M...
Andrew Sheets: Bracing for Challenges Ahead
17 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
While July contains a number of potentially positive market events, August and September could present a number of potentially problematic ones.
Michael Zezas: Coronavirus - Why Another Stimulus Deal is Likely
15 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Could a new $1 trillion stimulus deal make its way through the halls of Congress before the summer recess? Why the likelihood of a deal is increasing.
Mike Wilson: U.S. Markets Weigh Optimism; Uncertainty
13 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
U.S. equities—tech stocks in particular—have powered higher since March lows, but investors are still parsing Q2 earnings, a coming election and r...
Andrew Sheets: Pressure Testing the “Overoptimistic Markets” Argument
10 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The sharp rebound in stock and corporate bond markets has made some question if markets are a bit too upbeat about a speedy recovery. There’s just o...
Michael Zezas: How Should Investors Ride a Potential “Blue Wave”?
08 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Although the U.S. election is anything but predictable four months away, investors may still want to consider how markets would react to a Democrat sw...