Thoughts on the Market

Andrew Sheets: It Is Time to Worry about the Growth Outlook?

06 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The Delta variant, slow progress on U.S. infrastructure and some recent disappointing data have markets worried about the economic recovery. Here’s ...

Martijn Rats: Do Equities Markets Believe the Price of Oil?

05 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Are current oil prices sustainable? Although oil prices have rallied sharply over the last year, the performance of oil equities has been modest ...

Michael Zezas: The Long and Winding Fiscal Road

04 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The U.S. infrastructure bill is just the start of a larger fiscal process through year-end that may bring above average growth and higher U.S. Treasur...

Matt Hornbach: Are U.S. Treasuries Like Used Cars?

03 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Falling Treasury yields have investors wondering whether prices will keep rising. But some insight could be gained from the trajectory of U.S. auto pr...

Mike Wilson: The Inevitable Removal of Policy Support

02 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

As a strong earnings season wraps up, pressure is mounting on the Fed to reduce its current level of emergency monetary support. What will t...

Special Episode, Part 2: Digging Deeper into Delta

30 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

On this episode we continue our close look at the COVID-19 Delta variant including boosters, the outlook for fall/winter and the impact on markets.

Special Episode: Digging Deeper into the Delta Variant

29 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

On this episode, we take a closer look at the Delta variant including infectiousness, possibilities of mutation, and whether we’re stuck with COVID-...

Michael Zezas: U.S. Infrastructure - Deal or No Deal?

28 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Investors have been closely watching headlines on the bipartisan infrastructure plan, but for markets, what may matter most is the broader fiscal poli...

Mike Wilson: The Last Phase of Mid-Cycle

27 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. equity markets have transitioned through three of four typical changes associated with a mid-cycle transition. But the next, final phase—Fed ti...

Chetan Ahya: Will a Debt Hangover Hamper Recovery?

26 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

How can governments worldwide manage the historically high debt incurred in response to the COVID-19 crisis? The answer may be a bit counterintui...

Michael Zezas: The Debt Ceiling - Here We Go Again?

23 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The Congressional debate over raising the “debt ceiling”—the total amount of money that the U.S. is authorized to borrow—has begun again. Shou...

Special Episode: So How Healthy Is the U.S. Consumer?

22 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Consumer spending has an outsized impact on U.S. economic growth, representing 70% of the economy. We take a deep dive into savings, spending and the ...

Special Encore: Viruses, Variants and Vaccines - What’s Next?

21 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on June 24th, 2021: Although the darkest days of COVID-19 are hopefully behind us, new variants, vaccine distribution issues and unce...

Andrew Sheets: A Closer Look at Yesterday’s Market Drop

20 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

A popular read on yesterday’s drop in stocks and bond yields is concern over the COVID Delta variant and global growth. But that analysis may only b...

Special Episode: Bond Markets React to Delta Variant Worries

19 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

On this special edition of the podcast, we examine the path ahead for fixed income and the dollar amid increased concern over the COVID-19 Delta varia...

Andrew Sheets: The Complicated Portrait of Retail Investing

16 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Over the last 18 months, individual investor activity into single stocks has surged. But the bigger story may be the record amount of investment in ET...

Jonathan Garner: 4 Concerns to Watch on Asia & EM Equities

15 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

As the year began, there was a high degree of optimism that 2021 could be a great year for Asia & EM equities. But instead, Asian equities ha...

Michael Zezas: The $4 Trillion-Dollar Question

14 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The U.S. could be gearing up to approve $4 trillion in new spending over the next 10 years. A look at what that could mean for GDP and Treasuries.

Mike Wilson: Are U.S. Equities Markets Hunkering Down?

13 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Major U.S. indices may be climbing to all-time highs but broader weakness in individual stock prices could be sending investors a signal.

Graham Secker: Is the Best of Europe's Equities Run Behind Us?

12 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

After performing strongly for much of this year, European stocks have traded sideways over the last month. But a closer look at the data suggests an o...

Andrew Sheets: What's Driving Global Equities Markets?

09 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Although a typical explanation for market strength has been the large amount of cash being pushed into markets from central banks and investors, it’...

Michael Zezas: Something Special in the Air for Investors?

08 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Last week, U.S. air travel surpassed 2019 levels. And this recovery in demand may be an important story for both fixed income and equity investors to ...

Mike Wilson: Reopening Stocks Feel the Pinch

07 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Labor-intensive companies that should benefit from the reopening are feeling the pinch from rising wage costs. With growth stocks likely overbought, w...

Special Episode: The Complex Outlook for U.S. Housing

06 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. home price growth has been on a tear, but will affordability pressures begin weighing on home sales? The answer is a bit complicated.

Andrew Sheets: 2021 - A Look Back, a Look Forward

02 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

It's easy to forget just how different the world looked just six months ago. Does the renewed optimism suggest higher returns or just higher expectati...

Chetan Ahya: Has the Tide Finally Turned on Wage Growth?

01 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Until recently, wages have been on a forty year decline, driving new calls for policymaker action. A look at the implications for GDP, inflation and i...

Special Episode: U.S. Infrastructure - What’s in the Price?

30 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Is U.S. infrastructure already priced into Treasury yields? The answer may lie with whether investors are accurately gauging the true size of the...

Special Episode: The Red-Hot Return of Business Investment

29 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The robust return of business investment is set to be a key theme for investors. On this episode we examine the bullish outlook for communications equ...

Mike Wilson: A Growing Economy Leads to New Questions

28 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

With the economic recovery in full bloom, companies and investors may now be faced with new questions around higher materials and labor costs.

Special Episode, Part 2: Viruses, Variants and Vaccines

25 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets continues his conversation with Biotech Equity Analyst Matt Harrison on COVID-19 variants and the future of...

Special Episode: Viruses, Variants and Vaccines - What’s Next?

25 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Although the darkest days of COVID-19 are hopefully behind us, new variants, vaccine distribution issues and uncertainty about winter still remain key...

Robin Xing: Is China's Recovery Losing Momentum?

23 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Since last year, China's economic recovery has been strong… but uneven. After a hiccup in the second quarter, will manufacturing and consumers come ...

Special Episode: The Fed Is Talking Taper… But When?

23 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Last week, the Fed rattled markets by laying the groundwork for tapering its asset purchase program. But is this taper talk? Or just talking about tal...

Mike Wilson: When Is a “Surprise” Not Surprising?

21 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Although the Fed’s surprise hawkish turn in its latest policy decision caught markets off-guard, the monetary tightening process may actually have b...

Special Encore: The Red Hot Capex Cycle

18 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Original release on May 21st, 2021: Consumer spending should drive strong business investment in the months ahead, driving global GDP above its pre-CO...

Andrew Sheets: Markets 2021 - Using Past as Prologue

17 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Although investors often look to the past to assess current market conditions (such as a post-pandemic recovery or rising inflation), one year in part...

Michael Zezas: For Infrastructure, Go Big or Go Bipartisan?

16 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Will negotiations on a U.S. infrastructure deal lead to a bipartisan bill or a Democrats-only bill? The answer matters quite a bit for fixed-inco...

Graham Secker: European Equities Take a Turn Toward the Micro

15 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Over the past few weeks, European equity flows have been at the highest levels in three years. Could a period of consolidation be ahead?

Mike Wilson: A View from the Peak?

14 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

While the outlook for growth and inflation looks strong through next year, both may disappoint lofty investor expectations—and bring consequences fo...

Andrew Sheets: Markets Shrug at “High” Inflation

11 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

This month’s U.S. consumer price inflation data showed a 5% rise versus a year ago, yet markets seemed unconcerned. A look at why markets could be l...

Reza Moghadam: What Happens When the Euro Goes Digital?

10 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The European Central Bank may soon announce the trial launch of a digital euro. Reza Moghadam, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economic Advisor, digs into pote...

Michael Zezas: Preparing to Disconnect

10 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

With tensions not abating, investors should prepare for a world where these major economies are significantly less integrated. Michael Zezas explains.

Special Episode: What to Do When Everything is Rich

08 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Head of Fixed Income Strategy Vishy Tirupattur cover a key topic on the minds of many investors: where ...

Mike Wilson: More Data Doesn’t Always Mean More Certainty

08 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

New macro data on employment and consumer prices are unlikely to settle market uncertainties about inflation and course of the recovery. Mike Wilson e...

Andrew Sheets: The Fed’s Fascinating Dilemma

05 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The pillars that have supported extraordinary action by the Federal Reserve are now starting to shift. That means support could be withdrawn. The ques...

Mid-Year Commodities Outlook: Risks Ahead?

03 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Commodities prices have seen big moves over the last several months, but could a potentially stronger dollar and the mechanics of supply and demand co...

Michael Zezas: The Simmering U.S./China Rivalry

02 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Although the Biden administration has been slightly less vocal with respect to China, investors shouldn’t sleep on the possibly of renewed U.S.-Chin...

Shawn Kim: Inside China’s Push to Shape Tech’s Future

01 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Why China’s ambitious blueprint to shape tech standards may have significant impact on the future of tech. Insight from Shawn Kim, Head of Asia Tech...

2021 Mid-Year U.S. Economic Outlook: Growth Remains Strong

28 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Despite some inflation and labor market risks, the outlook for the rest of the year anticipates strong growth in the U.S. economy. Chief U.S. Economis...

Michael Zezas: Will Inflation Take the Wind Out of Infrastructure?

26 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Concern has been rising that potentially higher inflation could make Congress lose its nerve on a multi-trillion dollar "Build Back Better" plan. Here...

Special Episode: Check Out the Big Changes in Food Retail

25 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Where and how consumers buy their groceries may be forever changed post-pandemic. We deliver some key takeaways on the food retail industry.

Mike Wilson: A Unique View on U.S. Equities

24 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Fresh off of last week’s mid-year outlook, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson details investor reaction to some of the more out-of-consensus views...

Mid-Year Economic Outlook: The Red Hot Capex Cycle

21 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Consumer spending should drive strong business investment in the months ahead, driving global GDP above its pre-COVID-19 path. But inflation may be a ...

Andrew Sheets: The Complications of Strong Economic Winds

20 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

While robust global growth is a positive for markets, it may also bring higher prices, tighter policy and higher interest rates. A look at some possib...

Michael Zezas: What if Infrastructure Doesn’t Pass?

19 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

All indications suggest that Congress is serious about passing an infrastructure bill, but here’s why investors may want to consider all possible ou...

Graham Secker: European Equities Mid-Year

18 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Graham Secker, Head of Morgan Stanley's European and UK equity strategy team, shares why Europe may be set to outperform global equity markets this ye...

Mike Wilson: Mid-Year U.S. Equities Outlook - Be Selective

17 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains why sector and style preferences—along with selective stock picking—may be the key to success for th...

Andrew Sheets: Inflation - Is It Here to Stay?

14 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The debate over inflation was center stage this week and although the current environment is a far cry from the 1970s, rising prices could mean compli...

Special Episode: How Worrying Are Global Supply Chain Issues?

13 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Labor shortages and inventory constraints are weighing on U.S. manufacturing and shipping. How severe could the impact be to U.S. GDP and multi-indust...

Michael Zezas: The Bumpy Road Ahead for U.S. Infrastructure

12 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Differing U.S. infrastructure policy approaches highlight the ongoing difficulties of bipartisanship in Washington. Here’s one possible outcome.

Special Encore: What Are Other Investors Thinking?

11 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Original release April 16th, 2021: Keeping tabs on how other investors are trading can do more than just satisfy curiosity. It can provide a window in...

Mike Wilson: Welcome to the Mid-Cycle Transition

10 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Amid pricey valuations and growing evidence of labor and supply chain issues investors may want to adjust focus as we exit the early stages of the rec...

Andrew Sheets: Why (and How) Jobs Numbers Matter

07 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

With U.S. labor market numbers coming in below expectations, Andrew Sheets assesses how jobs data feeds into market and policy maker thinking about th...

Special Episode: Is Herd Immunity Even Possible?

06 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Amid declining rates of vaccinations in the U.S, virus mutations and a crisis in India, is herd immunity from COVID-19 still achievable? The latest in...

Michael Zezas: Texas vs. California

05 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The Supreme Court is expected to deliver a decision soon on this key case for the future of the Affordable Care Act and the 20 million Americans who h...

Vishy Tirupattur: Is the U.S. in a Housing Bubble?

04 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The red-hot U.S. housing market brings to mind some unhappy memories of the 2006 bubble, but there are some key differences this time around.

Adam Virgadamo: For Stocks, Reopening Is All About Nuance

03 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The reality of reopening is anything but cut and dry. And how the market is pricing, or failing to price, nuances should continue to be a key theme.

Chetan Ahya: Could Centrals Banks Shake Up Digital Currencies?

30 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Plans to introduce digital currencies are gaining momentum among the world’s central banks. But what level of disruption will it bring to the financ...

Michael Zezas: On Infrastructure, Follow the Money

29 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Last night, President Biden laid out his vision to rebuild the existing U.S. infrastructure. Here are three takeaways and sectors to watch as negotiat...

Andrew Sheets: A Choppier, More Range-bound Summer?

28 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Summer months have historically seen lower, more volatile returns, but strong year-to-date gains and potentially higher inflation could intensify that...

Graham Secker: 4 Reasons to Consider European Equities

27 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Europe's 'unloved' quality among global investors is not the only reason to feel optimistic about the potential for outperformance among European equi...

Mike Wilson: Reopening - It’s All About the Execution

26 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

High expectations around reopening may already be substantially priced into markets, pointing to new risks around how the reopening actually plays out...

Special Episode: Electric Vehicles, Pt 2 – Turning the Supertanker

23 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Stresses on the electrical grid, climate policy, and national security are only a few of the issues we will confront as we transition to EVs.

Special Episode: Electric Vehicles, Pt 1 – Follow the Fleet

22 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Price, charging infrastructure and dirty battery production are limiting the impact of EVs, but look to fleet operations to lead the way to broader ad...

Michael Zezas: Coal Country Support for Green Energy?

21 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

With a sizable infrastructure bill moving through the U.S. Congress, support from coal producing states, often considered unlikely, may be a factor th...

Special Episode: Earth Week Investing Themes

20 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Green investment is on investors' minds this Earth Week: Today, a look at key investment themes across carbon capture, plastics and agri-food developm...

Mike Wilson: Q1 Earnings - Impressive But Not Surprising?

19 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Earnings season is well underway and some stocks are selling-off despite strong economic data. Is the recovery now completely discounted?

Andrew Sheets: What Are Other Investors Thinking?

16 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Keeping tabs on how other investors are trading can do more than just satisfy curiosity. It can provide a window into trends and current market debate...

Simeon Gutman: Welcome to the Petriarchy

15 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Why the pet care industry—which was already growing pre-pandemic—may emerge as one of the fastest growing sectors over the next decade.

Michael Zezas: U.S. Infrastructure - Sectors to Watch

14 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

What stock sectors could fundamentally benefit from infrastructure spending? To answer this question, it’s important to follow the money.

Special Encore: Diverging Emerging Markets

13 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Original release on March 25th, 2021: Amid a generally conservative outlook for emerging markets, key differentiators are their scope for policy ...

Special Episode: Innovating toward Decarbonization

12 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

How are oil & gas companies and U.S. utilities tackling the complex transition to a lower carbon future? Expect a lot of divergence in approa...

Andrew Sheets: Are Bonds Still a Worthwhile Investment?

09 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Since last year, bonds of all stripes have seen so-so returns and high stock market correlation. Is it time to question their value as a portfolio div...

Vishy Tirupattur: The Policy Debate Takes Center Stage

08 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

In a time of extraordinary policy response to the pandemic, will bond markets move towards the Fed or will the Fed shift its reaction function towards...

Special Episode: Rising Home Prices, Rising Rates

08 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. home buyers are now facing both higher mortgage rates and steadily climbing home prices. What does this mean for housing and mortgage markets?

Special Episode: The Return of the Services Sector?

06 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Consumer spending trends are finally accelerating in service sectors such as dining and travel. A look at what this means for GDP, the jobs market and...

Mike Wilson: Equities Eye the Reality of Reopening

05 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Although the S&P 500 has continued to make new highs, underneath the surface, a shift in market leadership may be sending a signal about the hard ...

Andrew Sheets: Why April Could Be Strong for Markets

01 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Over the last 30 years, April has been one of the best months of the entire year—and this year, the rainy month could have some extra advantages.

Michael Zezas: How Taxing Can Infrastructure Be?

31 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

As the Biden administration unveils the Build Back Better plan, investors are asking: how will it be paid for? The answer is likely important for...

Robin Xing: China’s Green (Investment) Revolution

30 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

As China moves to make good on carbon targets, it will turn increasingly toward a large scale green investment strategy across its economy.

Mike Wilson: Rotating Through the Recovery

29 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

A look at why investors may want to position for a shift from early cycle conditions to more mid-cycle characteristics as the economy heads toward re-...

Andrew Sheets: Inflation - When to Turn Down the Music?

26 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The expectation of increased inflation is stirring concerns among investors, but the actual market for expected inflation suggests the Fed is on the r...

Special Episode: Diverging Emerging Markets

25 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Amid a generally conservative outlook for emerging markets, key differentiators are their scope for policy action, pace of vaccine rollout and equity ...

Michael Zezas: U.S./China Trade - No Quick Path to Lower Barriers

24 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Most Trump era barriers remain in place and new ones may even be implemented by the current administration. Markets should pay attention.

Brian Nowak: New Online Habits vs. A Return to ‘Normal’

23 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The Internet sector is more essential than ever. Our analyst looks at where pandemic habits will be stickiest and where the return to ‘normal’ may...

Mike Wilson: Outside the Consensus

22 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

We forecast a shorter and hotter business cycle than the consensus estimates, suggesting a move to mid-cycle portfolio positions earlier than expected...

Special Episode: The Winding Road to Herd Immunity, Pt. 2

19 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Biotech equity analyst Matthew Harrison continue their conversation, with a focus on international prog...

Special Episode: The Winding Road to Herd Immunity

18 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets talks with Biotech equity analyst Matthew Harrison on dose availability, vaccine hesitancy and the timeline...

Michael Zezas: Three Revealing Numbers from the Stimulus Package

17 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

It may be hard for investors to conceptualize how substantial the impact of the American Rescue Plan Act may be, but three numbers provide perspective...

Chetan Ahya: Fed Tightening Could Come Sooner than Expected

16 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

With the rapid recovery of the U.S. economy, it is possible that inflation will overshoot the Fed’s tolerances by as early as mid-2022.