Thoughts on the Market

Mike Wilson: When Is a “Surprise” Not Surprising?

21 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Although the Fed’s surprise hawkish turn in its latest policy decision caught markets off-guard, the monetary tightening process may actually have b...

Special Encore: The Red Hot Capex Cycle

18 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Original release on May 21st, 2021: Consumer spending should drive strong business investment in the months ahead, driving global GDP above its pre-CO...

Andrew Sheets: Markets 2021 - Using Past as Prologue

17 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Although investors often look to the past to assess current market conditions (such as a post-pandemic recovery or rising inflation), one year in part...

Michael Zezas: For Infrastructure, Go Big or Go Bipartisan?

16 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Will negotiations on a U.S. infrastructure deal lead to a bipartisan bill or a Democrats-only bill? The answer matters quite a bit for fixed-inco...

Graham Secker: European Equities Take a Turn Toward the Micro

15 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Over the past few weeks, European equity flows have been at the highest levels in three years. Could a period of consolidation be ahead?

Mike Wilson: A View from the Peak?

14 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

While the outlook for growth and inflation looks strong through next year, both may disappoint lofty investor expectations—and bring consequences fo...

Andrew Sheets: Markets Shrug at “High” Inflation

11 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

This month’s U.S. consumer price inflation data showed a 5% rise versus a year ago, yet markets seemed unconcerned. A look at why markets could be l...

Reza Moghadam: What Happens When the Euro Goes Digital?

10 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The European Central Bank may soon announce the trial launch of a digital euro. Reza Moghadam, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economic Advisor, digs into pote...

Michael Zezas: Preparing to Disconnect

10 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

With tensions not abating, investors should prepare for a world where these major economies are significantly less integrated. Michael Zezas explains.

Special Episode: What to Do When Everything is Rich

08 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Head of Fixed Income Strategy Vishy Tirupattur cover a key topic on the minds of many investors: where ...

Mike Wilson: More Data Doesn’t Always Mean More Certainty

08 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

New macro data on employment and consumer prices are unlikely to settle market uncertainties about inflation and course of the recovery. Mike Wilson e...

Andrew Sheets: The Fed’s Fascinating Dilemma

05 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The pillars that have supported extraordinary action by the Federal Reserve are now starting to shift. That means support could be withdrawn. The ques...

Mid-Year Commodities Outlook: Risks Ahead?

03 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Commodities prices have seen big moves over the last several months, but could a potentially stronger dollar and the mechanics of supply and demand co...

Michael Zezas: The Simmering U.S./China Rivalry

02 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Although the Biden administration has been slightly less vocal with respect to China, investors shouldn’t sleep on the possibly of renewed U.S.-Chin...

Shawn Kim: Inside China’s Push to Shape Tech’s Future

01 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Why China’s ambitious blueprint to shape tech standards may have significant impact on the future of tech. Insight from Shawn Kim, Head of Asia Tech...

2021 Mid-Year U.S. Economic Outlook: Growth Remains Strong

28 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Despite some inflation and labor market risks, the outlook for the rest of the year anticipates strong growth in the U.S. economy. Chief U.S. Economis...

Michael Zezas: Will Inflation Take the Wind Out of Infrastructure?

26 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Concern has been rising that potentially higher inflation could make Congress lose its nerve on a multi-trillion dollar "Build Back Better" plan. Here...

Special Episode: Check Out the Big Changes in Food Retail

25 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Where and how consumers buy their groceries may be forever changed post-pandemic. We deliver some key takeaways on the food retail industry.

Mike Wilson: A Unique View on U.S. Equities

24 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Fresh off of last week’s mid-year outlook, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson details investor reaction to some of the more out-of-consensus views...

Mid-Year Economic Outlook: The Red Hot Capex Cycle

21 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Consumer spending should drive strong business investment in the months ahead, driving global GDP above its pre-COVID-19 path. But inflation may be a ...

Andrew Sheets: The Complications of Strong Economic Winds

20 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

While robust global growth is a positive for markets, it may also bring higher prices, tighter policy and higher interest rates. A look at some possib...

Michael Zezas: What if Infrastructure Doesn’t Pass?

19 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

All indications suggest that Congress is serious about passing an infrastructure bill, but here’s why investors may want to consider all possible ou...

Graham Secker: European Equities Mid-Year

18 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Graham Secker, Head of Morgan Stanley's European and UK equity strategy team, shares why Europe may be set to outperform global equity markets this ye...

Mike Wilson: Mid-Year U.S. Equities Outlook - Be Selective

17 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains why sector and style preferences—along with selective stock picking—may be the key to success for th...

Andrew Sheets: Inflation - Is It Here to Stay?

14 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The debate over inflation was center stage this week and although the current environment is a far cry from the 1970s, rising prices could mean compli...

Special Episode: How Worrying Are Global Supply Chain Issues?

13 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Labor shortages and inventory constraints are weighing on U.S. manufacturing and shipping. How severe could the impact be to U.S. GDP and multi-indust...

Michael Zezas: The Bumpy Road Ahead for U.S. Infrastructure

12 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Differing U.S. infrastructure policy approaches highlight the ongoing difficulties of bipartisanship in Washington. Here’s one possible outcome.

Special Encore: What Are Other Investors Thinking?

11 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Original release April 16th, 2021: Keeping tabs on how other investors are trading can do more than just satisfy curiosity. It can provide a window in...

Mike Wilson: Welcome to the Mid-Cycle Transition

10 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Amid pricey valuations and growing evidence of labor and supply chain issues investors may want to adjust focus as we exit the early stages of the rec...

Andrew Sheets: Why (and How) Jobs Numbers Matter

07 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

With U.S. labor market numbers coming in below expectations, Andrew Sheets assesses how jobs data feeds into market and policy maker thinking about th...

Special Episode: Is Herd Immunity Even Possible?

06 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Amid declining rates of vaccinations in the U.S, virus mutations and a crisis in India, is herd immunity from COVID-19 still achievable? The latest in...

Michael Zezas: Texas vs. California

05 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The Supreme Court is expected to deliver a decision soon on this key case for the future of the Affordable Care Act and the 20 million Americans who h...

Vishy Tirupattur: Is the U.S. in a Housing Bubble?

04 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The red-hot U.S. housing market brings to mind some unhappy memories of the 2006 bubble, but there are some key differences this time around.

Adam Virgadamo: For Stocks, Reopening Is All About Nuance

03 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The reality of reopening is anything but cut and dry. And how the market is pricing, or failing to price, nuances should continue to be a key theme.

Chetan Ahya: Could Centrals Banks Shake Up Digital Currencies?

30 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Plans to introduce digital currencies are gaining momentum among the world’s central banks. But what level of disruption will it bring to the financ...

Michael Zezas: On Infrastructure, Follow the Money

29 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Last night, President Biden laid out his vision to rebuild the existing U.S. infrastructure. Here are three takeaways and sectors to watch as negotiat...

Andrew Sheets: A Choppier, More Range-bound Summer?

28 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Summer months have historically seen lower, more volatile returns, but strong year-to-date gains and potentially higher inflation could intensify that...

Graham Secker: 4 Reasons to Consider European Equities

27 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Europe's 'unloved' quality among global investors is not the only reason to feel optimistic about the potential for outperformance among European equi...

Mike Wilson: Reopening - It’s All About the Execution

26 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

High expectations around reopening may already be substantially priced into markets, pointing to new risks around how the reopening actually plays out...

Special Episode: Electric Vehicles, Pt 2 – Turning the Supertanker

23 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Stresses on the electrical grid, climate policy, and national security are only a few of the issues we will confront as we transition to EVs.

Special Episode: Electric Vehicles, Pt 1 – Follow the Fleet

22 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Price, charging infrastructure and dirty battery production are limiting the impact of EVs, but look to fleet operations to lead the way to broader ad...

Michael Zezas: Coal Country Support for Green Energy?

21 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

With a sizable infrastructure bill moving through the U.S. Congress, support from coal producing states, often considered unlikely, may be a factor th...

Special Episode: Earth Week Investing Themes

20 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Green investment is on investors' minds this Earth Week: Today, a look at key investment themes across carbon capture, plastics and agri-food developm...

Mike Wilson: Q1 Earnings - Impressive But Not Surprising?

19 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Earnings season is well underway and some stocks are selling-off despite strong economic data. Is the recovery now completely discounted?

Andrew Sheets: What Are Other Investors Thinking?

16 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Keeping tabs on how other investors are trading can do more than just satisfy curiosity. It can provide a window into trends and current market debate...

Simeon Gutman: Welcome to the Petriarchy

15 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Why the pet care industry—which was already growing pre-pandemic—may emerge as one of the fastest growing sectors over the next decade.

Michael Zezas: U.S. Infrastructure - Sectors to Watch

14 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

What stock sectors could fundamentally benefit from infrastructure spending? To answer this question, it’s important to follow the money.

Special Encore: Diverging Emerging Markets

13 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Original release on March 25th, 2021: Amid a generally conservative outlook for emerging markets, key differentiators are their scope for policy ...

Special Episode: Innovating toward Decarbonization

12 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

How are oil & gas companies and U.S. utilities tackling the complex transition to a lower carbon future? Expect a lot of divergence in approa...

Andrew Sheets: Are Bonds Still a Worthwhile Investment?

09 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Since last year, bonds of all stripes have seen so-so returns and high stock market correlation. Is it time to question their value as a portfolio div...

Vishy Tirupattur: The Policy Debate Takes Center Stage

08 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

In a time of extraordinary policy response to the pandemic, will bond markets move towards the Fed or will the Fed shift its reaction function towards...

Special Episode: Rising Home Prices, Rising Rates

08 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. home buyers are now facing both higher mortgage rates and steadily climbing home prices. What does this mean for housing and mortgage markets?

Special Episode: The Return of the Services Sector?

06 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Consumer spending trends are finally accelerating in service sectors such as dining and travel. A look at what this means for GDP, the jobs market and...

Mike Wilson: Equities Eye the Reality of Reopening

05 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Although the S&P 500 has continued to make new highs, underneath the surface, a shift in market leadership may be sending a signal about the hard ...

Andrew Sheets: Why April Could Be Strong for Markets

01 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Over the last 30 years, April has been one of the best months of the entire year—and this year, the rainy month could have some extra advantages.

Michael Zezas: How Taxing Can Infrastructure Be?

31 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

As the Biden administration unveils the Build Back Better plan, investors are asking: how will it be paid for? The answer is likely important for...

Robin Xing: China’s Green (Investment) Revolution

30 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

As China moves to make good on carbon targets, it will turn increasingly toward a large scale green investment strategy across its economy.

Mike Wilson: Rotating Through the Recovery

29 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

A look at why investors may want to position for a shift from early cycle conditions to more mid-cycle characteristics as the economy heads toward re-...

Andrew Sheets: Inflation - When to Turn Down the Music?

26 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The expectation of increased inflation is stirring concerns among investors, but the actual market for expected inflation suggests the Fed is on the r...

Special Episode: Diverging Emerging Markets

25 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Amid a generally conservative outlook for emerging markets, key differentiators are their scope for policy action, pace of vaccine rollout and equity ...

Michael Zezas: U.S./China Trade - No Quick Path to Lower Barriers

24 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Most Trump era barriers remain in place and new ones may even be implemented by the current administration. Markets should pay attention.

Brian Nowak: New Online Habits vs. A Return to ‘Normal’

23 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The Internet sector is more essential than ever. Our analyst looks at where pandemic habits will be stickiest and where the return to ‘normal’ may...

Mike Wilson: Outside the Consensus

22 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

We forecast a shorter and hotter business cycle than the consensus estimates, suggesting a move to mid-cycle portfolio positions earlier than expected...

Special Episode: The Winding Road to Herd Immunity, Pt. 2

19 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Biotech equity analyst Matthew Harrison continue their conversation, with a focus on international prog...

Special Episode: The Winding Road to Herd Immunity

18 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets talks with Biotech equity analyst Matthew Harrison on dose availability, vaccine hesitancy and the timeline...

Michael Zezas: Three Revealing Numbers from the Stimulus Package

17 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

It may be hard for investors to conceptualize how substantial the impact of the American Rescue Plan Act may be, but three numbers provide perspective...

Chetan Ahya: Fed Tightening Could Come Sooner than Expected

16 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

With the rapid recovery of the U.S. economy, it is possible that inflation will overshoot the Fed’s tolerances by as early as mid-2022.

Mike Wilson: A Tougher Road Ahead for Small Caps?

15 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

After almost a year of extraordinary outperformance, could small caps could see more difficulties ahead as re-opening dynamics up the risk of cost pre...

Andrew Sheets: A Complicated 2021 for Emerging Markets?

12 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

With global growth set to exceed expectations in 2021, emerging markets assets would appear set for outperformance. But this year, three factors cloud...

Special Episode: Markets and the Next Big Debate - Infrastructure

11 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Conversations around the “Build Back Better” U.S. infrastructure plan are ramping up. What do investors need to know about its potential impact on...

Michael Zezas: Policy Trends Are Now Portfolio Trends

10 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Why the ongoing dynamics of trade, fiscal policy, taxation and geopolitical tensions mean investors need to focus on more than just the Fed and the bu...

Special Episode: Markets Ahead of Reopening - What’s Mispriced?

09 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Ahead of a possible re-opening, which companies might retain gains seen in the pandemic, which will revert to pre-COVID norms and which are mispriced?

Mike Wilson: Still a Bull Under the Hood

08 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The current correction may be driven in part by the rise in U.S. Treasuries yields, but Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson still sees a bull market ...

Andrew Sheets: The Great Debate on Rates

05 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Do higher interest rates invariably lead to weaker equities and credit markets? The answer is a bit more complicated after factoring in economic ...

Special Episode: U.S. Home Prices - Is This Time Different?

04 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Home prices have been steadily climbing all across the U.S. How should Americans think about home prices, rising interest rates and affordability...

Michael Zezas: 3 Potential Impacts of “Build Back Better”

03 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The stage is set for the Biden administration’s major infrastructure and environment initiative. Here's what investors need to know about the road a...

Vishy Tirupattur: Can We Get Real on Rates?

02 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Although a shift to higher interest rates is noteworthy, historically, rising rates coupled with rising inflation may actually suggest better performa...

Mike Wilson: Positioning for Higher Interest Rates

01 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Which sectors could benefit from an era of rising inflation and higher interest rates? Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson shares the outlook fo...

Andrew Sheets: ‘Buy Low, Sell High’ May (Finally) Apply Again

26 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Some traditional market aphorisms seem to have been in abeyance, but with bond yields rising, the old rules are starting to apply again.

Special Episode: The Texas Grid and the Future of Energy

25 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

What really happened during the Texas grid crisis and what does it say about the transition to clean energy and the future of utilities in America?

Michael Zezas: A Reset for U.S.-Mexico Trade?

24 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Although markets appear more confident that U.S-Mexico trade tensions are largely in the past, investors shouldn't discount potential risks.

Ben Swinburne: Media Eyes the Great Reopening

23 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Media and entertainment had a tricky 2020 with lockdowns pulling forward years of growth for some companies—and challenges to others. So, what ...

Mike Wilson: An Eye on Bull Market Surprises

22 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. equities markets have continued to perform well, fueled by upbeat earnings and vaccination news. However, that’s often when surprises aris...

Andrew Sheets: The Risk of Rising Rates

19 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Whether the anticipated fiscal stimulus in the U.S. will be enough to push the economy into inflationary territory, and if we should be concerned abou...

Special Episode: Europe’s Economic Scarring Post-Pandemic

18 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Recessions can create long-term scars on labor, investment and the pace of innovation. Is Europe more prepared to lessen COVID-related economic scarri...

Michael Zezas: What’s Next for U.S.-China Trade?

17 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Concerns about the state of U.S.-China trade relations dominated investor thinking in 2018 and 2019. What’s the path forward for the Biden administr...

Adam Jonas: Space - The Disruption of All Disruptions?

16 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The scientific race toward quantum communication is already underway. A look at why the global space economy will be critical to its development.

Andrew Sheets: With Gold, the Narrative Matters

12 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Gold is sometimes perceived by investors as a good hedge against inflation, however its track record in this capacity is worth a closer look.

COVID-19: Variants, Vaccines and the Road Ahead

11 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

We dive into what’s ahead amid competing news headlines on the improving pace of vaccinations and worries over new variants.

Special Episode: The Debate over U.S. Fiscal Stimulus and Inflation

10 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Michael Zezas, Head of U.S. Public Policy Research and Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy, discuss the impact of stimulus and inflation o...

Chetan Ahya: The Fed, Stimulus and “The High-Pressure Economy”

09 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

If you’re not familiar with the concept of a high-pressure economy, now might be a good time to get acquainted. A new forecast for the U.S. economy.

Mike Wilson: Was January a Roadmap for 2021?

08 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Historically speaking, as goes January, so goes the year. Here’s why higher volatility and dispersion of returns between sectors and stocks may defi...

Andrew Sheets: Why U.S. Bond Yields Could Keep Rising

05 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

10-yr bond yields could rise by about 0.5% in 2021, but the potentially record amount of government bond issuance may not be the driver.

Special Episode: The Shifting Dynamics of Oil and Energy

04 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Two big stories are underway in oil and energy markets: changing supply and demand factors amid COVID-19 vaccinations and the impact of ESG considerat...

Michael Zezas: A Possible Path for Pandemic Relief?

03 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Republicans and Democrats are still far apart on the shape of a new fiscal stimulus bill, but that doesn’t mean a pathway to passage isn’t emergin...

Shawn Kim: Asia Tech at the Dawn of a New Cycle

02 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

What Asia tech trends should investors be watching in the year ahead? Shawn Kim, Head of Asia Technology Research, shares five key themes for 2021.

Mike Wilson: Why This Isn’t Dot-Com Bubble Redux

01 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Although last week's market correction was long overdue (and perhaps not finished), two differences separate the tech bubble of 1999-2000 and the pres...

Andrew Sheets: The Short-selling Drama - Sideshow or Main Event?

29 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

A handful of heavily shorted stocks took markets for a bit of ride this week. Does it say something larger about the future direction of equities mark...

Special Episode: Where is Consumer Spending Trending?

28 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

On this episode, we look at the evolution of U.S. consumer spending trends—and parallel investment themes—as COVID-19 vaccines roll out this year.

Michael Zezas: U.S. Stimulus Twists and Turns

27 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

When it comes to the next round of U.S. fiscal stimulus, in the near term it may be the journey that moves markets, not the destination.