Thoughts on the Market
Episodes
End-of-Year Encore: Factor Investing
27 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on August 26th, 2021: Equity investors have applied factor-driven strategies for years, but the approach has seen slow adoption in bo...
Michael Zezas: A More Flexible Fed
22 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Recent signals from the Fed are indicative of a willingness to change its mind quickly. While bond investors may be wary of the volatility this could ...
Chetan Ahya: China’s 2022 Policy Shifts
21 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With shifting focus across regulatory, monetary and fiscal policy, there is renewed confidence in the growth and recovery outlook for China in 2022.--...
Mike Wilson: Fire & Ice Continues Into Year-end
21 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Our narrative of tightening monetary policy and decelerating growth continues to play out amidst developments in Omicron, failed legislation and signa...
Welcome to Thoughts on the Market
20 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
A quick preview of what you'll hear on the Thoughts On The Market podcast, which features short, thoughtful and regular takes on recent events in the ...
Andrew Sheets: Challenges to the 2022 Story Emerge
17 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With recent signals from the Federal Reserve and new data on the Omicron variant, there’s a lot that could impact the shape of 2022, but for now the...
Matthew Harrison: COVID-19 - Omicron Updates
16 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The last week brought new evidence regarding the transmissibility, immune evasion and disease severity of Omicron, and with it, more clarity on the co...
Michael Zezas: Supply Chain Woes Also Create Opportunities
15 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
While many are hopeful for an easing of supply chain delays in 2022, the resolution of these issues may lead to new challenges and opportunities in ke...
Sheena Shah: The Financialization of Cryptocurrency
14 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Cryptocurrency companies have begun to act as banks in the US, and while regulators have expressed concerns over interest rates and the primacy of the...
2022 U.S. Equities Outlook: Still Favoring the Base Case
13 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Our 2022 outlook presented a wider than normal range of potential paths. While our base case still appears likely, shifts in supply and Fed policy cou...
2022 Rates & Currency Outlook: What’s Changed?
10 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With recent central bank action raising questions on monetary policy, Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach takes us through the implications...
2022 US Economic Outlook: Gauging Inflation, Labor & The Fed
10 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The US economy is in a unique moment of uncertainty but headed into 2022, shifts in inflation, the labor market and Fed policy tell a constructive sto...
Michael Zezas: Congress Eyes Tech Regulation in 2022
09 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Headed into next year, ‘Build Back Better’ legislation remains a work in progress, but Congress may find common ground in both parties’ concerns...
Special Episode: Early Vaccine Data on Omicron
08 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With early data in on the Omicron variant, biotechnology analyst Matthew Harrison takes us through where we stand on vaccine efficacy headed into the ...
2022 European Equities Outlook: Volatility Inbound
08 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With investors expected to deal with an increase in volatility in 2022, our outlook for European equities remains strong into next year.----- Transcri...
Mike Wilson: Why Have Stocks Been So Weak?
06 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The past few weeks have seen weak valuations across equity markets. While many look to the Omicron variant as the main culprit, the correction may hav...
Andrew Sheets: For the Fed, Are Tapering and Raising Rates the Same Thing?
03 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
One of our most controversial calls for 2022, that the Fed won’t hike interest rates next year, faces renewed scrutiny amidst high inflation, signal...
2022 Asia Equities Outlook: Key Debates
02 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Chief Asia and Emerging Markets Strategist Jonathan Garner highlights the key debates around his team’s outlook on the region’s growth, policy cha...
Michael Zezas: New Restrictions in Light of Omicron?
01 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The Omicron variant of COVID-19 has investors concerned about potential new restrictions, but the onus lies most on state and local governments who, f...
Special Episode: COVID-19 - Omicron Variant Causes Concern
01 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Last week’s news of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 has raised questions about transmissibility, vaccine efficacy, and virus mortality. Where does t...
Mike Wilson: Markets React to Omicron
29 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With last week’s news of the Omicron variant of COVID-19, markets sold-off sharply on Friday, but beyond the headlines, there may be other underlyin...
Michael Zezas: A Step Forward for Build Back Better
24 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The Build Back Better Act took a key step towards becoming law last week, signaling implications for fiscal policy and taxation as the bill heads to t...
Andrew Sheets: Twists and Turns In 2022
23 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Our 500th episode! From all of us at Morgan Stanley, thanks to our listeners for all your support!An overview of our expectations for the year ahead a...
Mike Wilson: 2022 Equity Outlook Feedback and Debates
22 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With the release of our outlook for the coming year comes a cycle of feedback and debates from clients and investors. We look at those discussions aro...
2022 Global Economic Outlook, Pt. 2: Debates and Uncertainties
19 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Andrew Sheets continues his discussion with Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter on Morgan Stanley’s more optimistic economic outlook for 2022, wha...
2022 Global Economic Outlook, Pt. 1: Optimism in the New Year
18 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Andrew Sheets speaks with Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter on Morgan Stanley’s more optimistic economic outlook for 2022 and how consumer spend...
Michael Zezas: A New Normal for U.S./China Relations
17 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
This week’s meeting between President Biden and President Xi was not a return to an earlier phase of relations between their two countries. Instead,...
Special Episode: The Low-Income Real Estate Story
17 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The housing market has seen record home price growth this year. But who does this boom benefit and who gets left behind?----- Transcript -----Jim Egan...
Mike Wilson: In 2022, Stock Picking May Lead
15 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Coming out of a year marked by greater uncertainty and volatility, 2022 is poised to be a year which favors single stock investing over a focus on sty...
Andrew Sheets: Bond Markets Get Jumpy
12 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Over the last decade, bonds have been a source of stability. But, with surprising moves this past month, they’ve now become a risk-management challe...
Matt Hornbach: What the Fed Wants, the Fed Gets
11 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Coming out of last week’s FOMC meeting, the Fed’s wants are becoming clearer but the implications into 2022 for asset prices, interest rates and e...
Michael Zezas: The Infrastructure Supercycle is Here
11 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The bipartisan infrastructure bill has passed, and while investors will see some short term impacts, the bigger question is how long will it take for ...
Graham Secker: A Curious Case of Price Movements
09 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Third quarter earnings are heading into the home stretch in Europe and the UK, but while a solid number of companies have beat earnings estimates, mar...
Mike Wilson: Inflation Causes Mixed Signals
08 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
As we head towards year end, stock and bond markets appear to be sending mixed signals for the year ahead. For investors, the truth could lie somewher...
Jonathan Garner: Equity Markets Respond to Global Shifts
05 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Global moves in elections, COVID restrictions and energy prices are having ripple effects across markets. How should investors think about these dynam...
Andrew Sheets: A Taper Without a Tantrum?
04 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Central bank support has been a key driver of market strength since last year. So how will markets react during the months-long tapering process?-----...
Matt Hornbach: What to Watch for When Markets Get Meta
04 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Inflation rates, commodity prices and central bank policy are tied together through self-referential loops. With today’s FOMC meeting, it is worth a...
Michael Zezas: Short-Term vs. Long-Term Deficit
02 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
‘Build Back Better’ has gained support from all corners of the Democratic Party, but questions remain over how the framework is paid for. For inve...
Special Encore: Clear Skies, Volatile Markets
01 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on October 11th, 2021: As the weather chills and we head towards the end of the mid-cycle transition, the S&P 500 continues to av...
Vishy Tirupattur: Corporate Credit - Calm Amidst the Storm
29 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Investors have had a lot to take in over the past few weeks, but corporate credit markets remain calm despite turbulence elsewhere. Vishy Tirupattur e...
Andrew Sheets: What Will Markets Return in the Long Run?
28 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
One of the great conundrums of finance is predicting what markets will return over the long run. But with some historical research and the power of ma...
Special Episode: Autonomous Trucking Speeds Ahead
28 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Autonomous trucking may sound like science fiction, but its impacts on transportation costs, the labor market and a breadth of industries may be close...
Special Episode: Clean Tech Thrives Under Most Budget Outcomes
26 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Debates in D.C. continue to make headlines, but even with lowered expectations for the Biden agenda, we find a robust set of climate-focused provision...
Mike Wilson: An Icy Winter for Investors?
25 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The forecast for inflation still appears hot for both consumers and corporates, but when it comes earnings and economic growth, the outlook looks a bi...
Andrew Sheets: Why Lower Oil Futures Matter for the Shape of the Market
22 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The market’s long term trajectory for oil suggests a decline in prices, but the 'why' matters, and the transition toward more green energy...
Special Episode: The Promise of Green Hydrogen
22 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Sustainably generated hydrogen has great promise as a fuel where electricity alone won’t suffice, but the road to its broad adoption remains complic...
Michael Zezas: Infrastructure SuperCycle on the Horizon?
21 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The bipartisan infrastructure and ‘Build Back Better’ plans remain in legislative limbo, but what could their passage mean for markets? -----...
Special Episode: The Podcasting Industry Comes Into Its Own
20 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Moves toward scale and consolidation show promise for what is already a burgeoning content industry. ----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets Wel...
Mike Wilson: Retail Investors Continue to Support Valuations
18 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With supply chain pressures and rising costs still weighing on markets, retail investors continue to see long term value.----- Transcript -----Welcome...
Andrew Sheets: Will Cash Stay On The Sidelines?
15 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Consumer saving is up, way up. But whether investors put this money into the markets may have more to do with how much wealth is already in play.-----...
Special Episode: The Two-Pillar Tax Overhaul
14 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Last week, over 130 countries announced an agreement to overhaul international tax rules. The changes may seem high-level, but should investors pay cl...
Special Episode: Planes, Trains and Supply Chains
13 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With supply chain delays in air, ocean and trucking on the minds of investors worldwide, what could it mean for the labor market and consumers headed ...
Graham Secker: Easing Europe’s Stagflation Concerns
12 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Investors appear nervous about the economic outlook as 3rd quarter earnings season approaches. Are stagflation concerns justified… or perhaps o...
Mike Wilson: Clear Skies, Volatile Markets
11 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
As the weather chills and we head towards the end of the mid-cycle transition, the S&P 500 continues to avoid a correction. How long until equitie...
Andrew Sheets: Stagflation Demystified
08 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Investor worries over growth and inflation have revived the term stagflation—but with growth indicators historically solid, is it an accurate descri...
Special Episode: Highs—and Lows—in U.S. Housing
07 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Affordability pressures continue to mount as housing supply tightens. How long will home prices continue setting records and what could it mean for cr...
Michael Zezas: Washington’s Trio of Tricky Travails
06 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Discussions in D.C. over the infrastructure framework, budget reconciliation bill and debt ceiling could impact more than just politics. What could it...
Special Episode: COVID-19 - Will Pills Change the Game?
05 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
New data on an oral antiviral treatment could have significant impact on the COVID treatment landscape. What’s next for treatments, booster shots an...
Reza Moghadam: Post-Merkel Politics in Europe
04 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
After 16 years, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is stepping down. While the full implications for Europe remain unclear, some contours of the post-Mer...
Special Episode, Part 2: Taking the Temperature of Individual Investors
01 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
On part two of this special episode, Lisa Shalett and Andrew Sheets dive into meme stocks and individual investor trading advantages… and pitfalls.-...
Special Episode: Taking the Temperature of Individual Investors
30 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
On part one of this Special Episode, Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, discusses the new shape of retail in...
Michael Zezas: Will the Democrats Go Big or Go Small?
30 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The eventual size of the Democratic Party’s fiscal policy legislation – for taxes and for spending – will likely impact the bond market as ...
Jonathan Garner: Economic Surprises = Earnings Surprises
29 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With incoming global growth data missing consensus expectations, emerging markets equity earnings revisions could fall back into negative territory fo...
Matt Hornbach: Inflation Fears Drive Central Bank Actions
28 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Real interest rates are on the rise in Europe and the US and central banks are responding. This may impact currency markets headed into the fall. Matt...
Mike Wilson: The Process Matters
27 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Our analyst’s equity positioning models have held up well and we continue to rely on an understanding of historical cycles as we move through this m...
Andrew Sheets: The Fed Shuffles Toward the Exit
24 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
This week, the Fed hinted that a taper announcement in November could be in store, adding one more wrinkle into events that investors will need to nav...
Michael Zezas: Two Potential Catalysts to Watch for Fall Volatility
23 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Why two D.C. policy items—the bipartisan infrastructure framework and debt ceiling deliberations—could add one more complication for equities mark...
Special Episode: How Will China Manage the Housing Downturn?
22 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
On this special episode, we address key questions around struggles in China's property sector, as well as any potential spillover into the broader eco...
Special Episode: Unpacking Climate Action in Congress
21 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
This Climate Week, we preview environmental policy proposals within the $3.5 Trillion Budget Reconciliation Bill. What will it mean for investors and ...
Mike Wilson: The Final Chapter of the Mid-Cycle Transition?
20 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Although many commentators point to the S&P 500 near all-time highs as a rationale for higher stock prices, markets may be facing a bumpy road ahe...
Special Episode: Untangling Global Spikes in Commodity Prices
17 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
We look at how soaring energy prices in Spain, gas prices in the U.S. and aluminum prices globally could all be linked to coal mines in China.----- Tr...
Special Encore: A Good Time to Borrow?
16 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on August 13th, 2021: Across numerous metrics, the current environment may be an unusually good time to borrow money. What does this ...
Michael Zezas: What’s on Tap for U.S. Taxes?
15 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Although markets have been preparing for the notion of tax hikes, a flurry of recent legislative activity may suggest where tax policy will eventually...
Graham Secker: Re-engaging with Cyclical Value in Europe
14 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With the summer growth scare in Europe possibly nearing an end—and relatively inexpensive valuations—cyclical stocks in Energy, Banking and Autos ...
Mike Wilson: Keeping an Eye on Earnings Estimates
13 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Equities markets may be sending mixed messages on the economy and growth, but ultimately, it’s all about the earnings. Chief Investment Officer Mike...
Andrew Sheets: Are Clouds Gathering for U.S. Equities?
10 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Why stretched valuations, growth worries and a cavalcade of uncertain events in September and October could mean a challenging fall for U.S. stocks.
Michael Zezas: Season of Confusion in D.C.?
09 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Negotiations on a number of government policy points such as taxes, fiscal spending and deficits have hit a fever pitch. Here are three potential outc...
Jonathan Garner: Rising Risks for Taiwan Equities
09 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Taiwan equities have been a standout among equities in 2021, but factors such as softening tech spend and slowing retail trading activity suggest chal...
Ellen Zentner: Keep Calm and Taper On?
08 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Weak U.S. economic data in August has renewed concerns that a growth scare is underway. Is this a sign of things to come or just a speed bump in the e...
Special Encore: So, What’s the Story?
07 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on August 30th, 2021: Although a key component of investing is getting the narrative right, perhaps a bigger component is knowing whe...
Special Encore: Never a Dull Moment in the Political Economy?
03 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on August 25th, 2021: For investors, U.S. fiscal policy, tax increases and U.S.-China relations are three key items to watch as we he...
Andrew Sheets: Autumn Days Are Here Again
02 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
As summer transitions to fall, investors will be facing a host of key market events. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets covers the ones to wat...
Special Episode: The Curious Case of Norway, EVs and Oil
01 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Norway has made great strides in electric vehicle adoption over the last decade, so why has its oil consumption remained largely unchanged?
Matt Hornbach: Treasuries, Tapering and Tightening
31 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
After last week’s Jackson Hole Symposium, markets cheered Fed Powell’s implied messaging on the pace of rate hikes. Did markets read it right?
Mike Wilson: So, What’s the Story?
30 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Although a key component of investing is getting the narrative right, perhaps a bigger component is knowing when the narrative could change.
Andrew Sheets: Singapore Offers an Alternative to U.S. Equities
27 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
In a world where U.S. equities are currently less attractive, investors need options for places to put their money — this is one.
Special Episode: Is This the Moneyball Approach to Corporate Bonds?
26 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Equity investors have applied factor-driven strategies for years, but the approach has seen slow adoption in bond markets. Here’s why that may be ch...
Michael Zezas: Never a Dull Moment in the Political Economy?
25 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
For investors, U.S. fiscal policy, tax increases and U.S.-China relations are three key items to watch as we head toward fall. We outline potential ou...
Adam Jonas: Space Investing - Ready for Takeoff?
24 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Recent developments in space travel may be setting the stage for a striking new era of tech investment. Are investors paying attention?
Mike Wilson: The U.S. Consumer Takes a Break
23 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
An old adage says 'never bet against the US consumer's willingness to spend,' but new data on demand and consumption may say otherwise.
Andrew Sheets: For Markets, What Lies Beneath?
20 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Despite a fair amount of uncertainty, global stock prices have continued to march higher. But under the surface, markets have become a bit more discer...
Special Episode: Kids, COVID, and the Return to School
19 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
As back-to-school approaches, we take a close look at school safety, child case numbers amid Delta and the path ahead for vaccines for younger childre...
Michael Zezas: Deciphering the Infrastructure Chess Game
18 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Last week, the U.S. Senate advanced both a budget blueprint and a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill. What can investors expect from the House...
Graham Secker: Three Reasons European Equities Remain Strong
17 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Despite recent uncertainty caused by the Delta variant, regulatory changes and the potential for a stronger dollar, European Equities are showing rene...
Mike Wilson: Navigating a Tricky Transition
16 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
A strong second quarter earnings season wraps up this week, but lower than consensus earnings for next year and lower valuations could make the road a...
Andrew Sheets: A Good Time to Borrow?
13 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Across numerous metrics, the current environment may be an unusually good time to borrow money. What does this mean for equities, credit and governmen...
Special Episode: Unpacking the Appetite for Thematic Investing
12 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Investor interest in thematic equity products such as ETFs has rapidly surged, particularly among tech themes. Why the momentum may only grow.
Jonathan Garner: Demystifying China's Regulatory Reset
11 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
On this episode, we examine how China’s regulatory reset on fintech, big tech, cryptocurrency and carbon emissions could affect China equities and b...
Michael Zezas: The Return of U.S.-China Trade Tensions?
10 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Although the pandemic put U.S.-China trade tensions on a low simmer, several catalysts could now turn up the heat. Three takeaways for investors.
Mike Wilson: Could Upbeat Jobs Data Actually Weigh on Stocks?
09 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
July’s strong labor market report suggests the Fed may be behind the curve on monetary policy— and markets could soon start to notice.