Thoughts on the Market
Episodes
Mike Wilson: Inflation Causes Mixed Signals
08 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
As we head towards year end, stock and bond markets appear to be sending mixed signals for the year ahead. For investors, the truth could lie somewher...
Jonathan Garner: Equity Markets Respond to Global Shifts
05 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Global moves in elections, COVID restrictions and energy prices are having ripple effects across markets. How should investors think about these dynam...
Andrew Sheets: A Taper Without a Tantrum?
04 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Central bank support has been a key driver of market strength since last year. So how will markets react during the months-long tapering process?-----...
Matt Hornbach: What to Watch for When Markets Get Meta
04 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Inflation rates, commodity prices and central bank policy are tied together through self-referential loops. With today’s FOMC meeting, it is worth a...
Michael Zezas: Short-Term vs. Long-Term Deficit
02 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
‘Build Back Better’ has gained support from all corners of the Democratic Party, but questions remain over how the framework is paid for. For inve...
Special Encore: Clear Skies, Volatile Markets
01 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on October 11th, 2021: As the weather chills and we head towards the end of the mid-cycle transition, the S&P 500 continues to av...
Vishy Tirupattur: Corporate Credit - Calm Amidst the Storm
29 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Investors have had a lot to take in over the past few weeks, but corporate credit markets remain calm despite turbulence elsewhere. Vishy Tirupattur e...
Andrew Sheets: What Will Markets Return in the Long Run?
28 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
One of the great conundrums of finance is predicting what markets will return over the long run. But with some historical research and the power of ma...
Special Episode: Autonomous Trucking Speeds Ahead
28 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Autonomous trucking may sound like science fiction, but its impacts on transportation costs, the labor market and a breadth of industries may be close...
Special Episode: Clean Tech Thrives Under Most Budget Outcomes
26 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Debates in D.C. continue to make headlines, but even with lowered expectations for the Biden agenda, we find a robust set of climate-focused provision...
Mike Wilson: An Icy Winter for Investors?
25 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The forecast for inflation still appears hot for both consumers and corporates, but when it comes earnings and economic growth, the outlook looks a bi...
Andrew Sheets: Why Lower Oil Futures Matter for the Shape of the Market
22 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The market’s long term trajectory for oil suggests a decline in prices, but the 'why' matters, and the transition toward more green energy...
Special Episode: The Promise of Green Hydrogen
22 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Sustainably generated hydrogen has great promise as a fuel where electricity alone won’t suffice, but the road to its broad adoption remains complic...
Michael Zezas: Infrastructure SuperCycle on the Horizon?
21 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The bipartisan infrastructure and ‘Build Back Better’ plans remain in legislative limbo, but what could their passage mean for markets? -----...
Special Episode: The Podcasting Industry Comes Into Its Own
20 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Moves toward scale and consolidation show promise for what is already a burgeoning content industry. ----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets Wel...
Mike Wilson: Retail Investors Continue to Support Valuations
18 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With supply chain pressures and rising costs still weighing on markets, retail investors continue to see long term value.----- Transcript -----Welcome...
Andrew Sheets: Will Cash Stay On The Sidelines?
15 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Consumer saving is up, way up. But whether investors put this money into the markets may have more to do with how much wealth is already in play.-----...
Special Episode: The Two-Pillar Tax Overhaul
14 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Last week, over 130 countries announced an agreement to overhaul international tax rules. The changes may seem high-level, but should investors pay cl...
Special Episode: Planes, Trains and Supply Chains
13 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With supply chain delays in air, ocean and trucking on the minds of investors worldwide, what could it mean for the labor market and consumers headed ...
Graham Secker: Easing Europe’s Stagflation Concerns
12 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Investors appear nervous about the economic outlook as 3rd quarter earnings season approaches. Are stagflation concerns justified… or perhaps o...
Mike Wilson: Clear Skies, Volatile Markets
11 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
As the weather chills and we head towards the end of the mid-cycle transition, the S&P 500 continues to avoid a correction. How long until equitie...
Andrew Sheets: Stagflation Demystified
08 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Investor worries over growth and inflation have revived the term stagflation—but with growth indicators historically solid, is it an accurate descri...
Special Episode: Highs—and Lows—in U.S. Housing
07 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Affordability pressures continue to mount as housing supply tightens. How long will home prices continue setting records and what could it mean for cr...
Michael Zezas: Washington’s Trio of Tricky Travails
06 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Discussions in D.C. over the infrastructure framework, budget reconciliation bill and debt ceiling could impact more than just politics. What could it...
Special Episode: COVID-19 - Will Pills Change the Game?
05 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
New data on an oral antiviral treatment could have significant impact on the COVID treatment landscape. What’s next for treatments, booster shots an...
Reza Moghadam: Post-Merkel Politics in Europe
04 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
After 16 years, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is stepping down. While the full implications for Europe remain unclear, some contours of the post-Mer...
Special Episode, Part 2: Taking the Temperature of Individual Investors
01 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
On part two of this special episode, Lisa Shalett and Andrew Sheets dive into meme stocks and individual investor trading advantages… and pitfalls.-...
Special Episode: Taking the Temperature of Individual Investors
30 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
On part one of this Special Episode, Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, discusses the new shape of retail in...
Michael Zezas: Will the Democrats Go Big or Go Small?
30 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The eventual size of the Democratic Party’s fiscal policy legislation – for taxes and for spending – will likely impact the bond market as ...
Jonathan Garner: Economic Surprises = Earnings Surprises
29 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With incoming global growth data missing consensus expectations, emerging markets equity earnings revisions could fall back into negative territory fo...
Matt Hornbach: Inflation Fears Drive Central Bank Actions
28 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Real interest rates are on the rise in Europe and the US and central banks are responding. This may impact currency markets headed into the fall. Matt...
Mike Wilson: The Process Matters
27 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Our analyst’s equity positioning models have held up well and we continue to rely on an understanding of historical cycles as we move through this m...
Andrew Sheets: The Fed Shuffles Toward the Exit
24 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
This week, the Fed hinted that a taper announcement in November could be in store, adding one more wrinkle into events that investors will need to nav...
Michael Zezas: Two Potential Catalysts to Watch for Fall Volatility
23 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Why two D.C. policy items—the bipartisan infrastructure framework and debt ceiling deliberations—could add one more complication for equities mark...
Special Episode: How Will China Manage the Housing Downturn?
22 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
On this special episode, we address key questions around struggles in China's property sector, as well as any potential spillover into the broader eco...
Special Episode: Unpacking Climate Action in Congress
21 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
This Climate Week, we preview environmental policy proposals within the $3.5 Trillion Budget Reconciliation Bill. What will it mean for investors and ...
Mike Wilson: The Final Chapter of the Mid-Cycle Transition?
20 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Although many commentators point to the S&P 500 near all-time highs as a rationale for higher stock prices, markets may be facing a bumpy road ahe...
Special Episode: Untangling Global Spikes in Commodity Prices
17 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
We look at how soaring energy prices in Spain, gas prices in the U.S. and aluminum prices globally could all be linked to coal mines in China.----- Tr...
Special Encore: A Good Time to Borrow?
16 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on August 13th, 2021: Across numerous metrics, the current environment may be an unusually good time to borrow money. What does this ...
Michael Zezas: What’s on Tap for U.S. Taxes?
15 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Although markets have been preparing for the notion of tax hikes, a flurry of recent legislative activity may suggest where tax policy will eventually...
Graham Secker: Re-engaging with Cyclical Value in Europe
14 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With the summer growth scare in Europe possibly nearing an end—and relatively inexpensive valuations—cyclical stocks in Energy, Banking and Autos ...
Mike Wilson: Keeping an Eye on Earnings Estimates
13 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Equities markets may be sending mixed messages on the economy and growth, but ultimately, it’s all about the earnings. Chief Investment Officer Mike...
Andrew Sheets: Are Clouds Gathering for U.S. Equities?
10 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Why stretched valuations, growth worries and a cavalcade of uncertain events in September and October could mean a challenging fall for U.S. stocks.
Michael Zezas: Season of Confusion in D.C.?
09 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Negotiations on a number of government policy points such as taxes, fiscal spending and deficits have hit a fever pitch. Here are three potential outc...
Jonathan Garner: Rising Risks for Taiwan Equities
09 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Taiwan equities have been a standout among equities in 2021, but factors such as softening tech spend and slowing retail trading activity suggest chal...
Ellen Zentner: Keep Calm and Taper On?
08 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Weak U.S. economic data in August has renewed concerns that a growth scare is underway. Is this a sign of things to come or just a speed bump in the e...
Special Encore: So, What’s the Story?
07 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on August 30th, 2021: Although a key component of investing is getting the narrative right, perhaps a bigger component is knowing whe...
Special Encore: Never a Dull Moment in the Political Economy?
03 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on August 25th, 2021: For investors, U.S. fiscal policy, tax increases and U.S.-China relations are three key items to watch as we he...
Andrew Sheets: Autumn Days Are Here Again
02 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
As summer transitions to fall, investors will be facing a host of key market events. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets covers the ones to wat...
Special Episode: The Curious Case of Norway, EVs and Oil
01 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Norway has made great strides in electric vehicle adoption over the last decade, so why has its oil consumption remained largely unchanged?
Matt Hornbach: Treasuries, Tapering and Tightening
31 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
After last week’s Jackson Hole Symposium, markets cheered Fed Powell’s implied messaging on the pace of rate hikes. Did markets read it right?
Mike Wilson: So, What’s the Story?
30 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Although a key component of investing is getting the narrative right, perhaps a bigger component is knowing when the narrative could change.
Andrew Sheets: Singapore Offers an Alternative to U.S. Equities
27 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
In a world where U.S. equities are currently less attractive, investors need options for places to put their money — this is one.
Special Episode: Is This the Moneyball Approach to Corporate Bonds?
26 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Equity investors have applied factor-driven strategies for years, but the approach has seen slow adoption in bond markets. Here’s why that may be ch...
Michael Zezas: Never a Dull Moment in the Political Economy?
25 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
For investors, U.S. fiscal policy, tax increases and U.S.-China relations are three key items to watch as we head toward fall. We outline potential ou...
Adam Jonas: Space Investing - Ready for Takeoff?
24 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Recent developments in space travel may be setting the stage for a striking new era of tech investment. Are investors paying attention?
Mike Wilson: The U.S. Consumer Takes a Break
23 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
An old adage says 'never bet against the US consumer's willingness to spend,' but new data on demand and consumption may say otherwise.
Andrew Sheets: For Markets, What Lies Beneath?
20 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Despite a fair amount of uncertainty, global stock prices have continued to march higher. But under the surface, markets have become a bit more discer...
Special Episode: Kids, COVID, and the Return to School
19 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
As back-to-school approaches, we take a close look at school safety, child case numbers amid Delta and the path ahead for vaccines for younger childre...
Michael Zezas: Deciphering the Infrastructure Chess Game
18 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Last week, the U.S. Senate advanced both a budget blueprint and a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill. What can investors expect from the House...
Graham Secker: Three Reasons European Equities Remain Strong
17 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Despite recent uncertainty caused by the Delta variant, regulatory changes and the potential for a stronger dollar, European Equities are showing rene...
Mike Wilson: Navigating a Tricky Transition
16 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
A strong second quarter earnings season wraps up this week, but lower than consensus earnings for next year and lower valuations could make the road a...
Andrew Sheets: A Good Time to Borrow?
13 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Across numerous metrics, the current environment may be an unusually good time to borrow money. What does this mean for equities, credit and governmen...
Special Episode: Unpacking the Appetite for Thematic Investing
12 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Investor interest in thematic equity products such as ETFs has rapidly surged, particularly among tech themes. Why the momentum may only grow.
Jonathan Garner: Demystifying China's Regulatory Reset
11 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
On this episode, we examine how China’s regulatory reset on fintech, big tech, cryptocurrency and carbon emissions could affect China equities and b...
Michael Zezas: The Return of U.S.-China Trade Tensions?
10 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Although the pandemic put U.S.-China trade tensions on a low simmer, several catalysts could now turn up the heat. Three takeaways for investors.
Mike Wilson: Could Upbeat Jobs Data Actually Weigh on Stocks?
09 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
July’s strong labor market report suggests the Fed may be behind the curve on monetary policy— and markets could soon start to notice.
Andrew Sheets: It Is Time to Worry about the Growth Outlook?
06 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The Delta variant, slow progress on U.S. infrastructure and some recent disappointing data have markets worried about the economic recovery. Here’s ...
Martijn Rats: Do Equities Markets Believe the Price of Oil?
05 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Are current oil prices sustainable? Although oil prices have rallied sharply over the last year, the performance of oil equities has been modest ...
Michael Zezas: The Long and Winding Fiscal Road
04 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The U.S. infrastructure bill is just the start of a larger fiscal process through year-end that may bring above average growth and higher U.S. Treasur...
Matt Hornbach: Are U.S. Treasuries Like Used Cars?
03 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Falling Treasury yields have investors wondering whether prices will keep rising. But some insight could be gained from the trajectory of U.S. auto pr...
Mike Wilson: The Inevitable Removal of Policy Support
02 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
As a strong earnings season wraps up, pressure is mounting on the Fed to reduce its current level of emergency monetary support. What will t...
Special Episode, Part 2: Digging Deeper into Delta
30 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
On this episode we continue our close look at the COVID-19 Delta variant including boosters, the outlook for fall/winter and the impact on markets.
Special Episode: Digging Deeper into the Delta Variant
29 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
On this episode, we take a closer look at the Delta variant including infectiousness, possibilities of mutation, and whether we’re stuck with COVID-...
Michael Zezas: U.S. Infrastructure - Deal or No Deal?
28 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Investors have been closely watching headlines on the bipartisan infrastructure plan, but for markets, what may matter most is the broader fiscal poli...
Mike Wilson: The Last Phase of Mid-Cycle
27 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
U.S. equity markets have transitioned through three of four typical changes associated with a mid-cycle transition. But the next, final phase—Fed ti...
Chetan Ahya: Will a Debt Hangover Hamper Recovery?
26 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
How can governments worldwide manage the historically high debt incurred in response to the COVID-19 crisis? The answer may be a bit counterintui...
Michael Zezas: The Debt Ceiling - Here We Go Again?
23 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The Congressional debate over raising the “debt ceiling”—the total amount of money that the U.S. is authorized to borrow—has begun again. Shou...
Special Episode: So How Healthy Is the U.S. Consumer?
22 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Consumer spending has an outsized impact on U.S. economic growth, representing 70% of the economy. We take a deep dive into savings, spending and the ...
Special Encore: Viruses, Variants and Vaccines - What’s Next?
21 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on June 24th, 2021: Although the darkest days of COVID-19 are hopefully behind us, new variants, vaccine distribution issues and unce...
Andrew Sheets: A Closer Look at Yesterday’s Market Drop
20 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
A popular read on yesterday’s drop in stocks and bond yields is concern over the COVID Delta variant and global growth. But that analysis may only b...
Special Episode: Bond Markets React to Delta Variant Worries
19 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
On this special edition of the podcast, we examine the path ahead for fixed income and the dollar amid increased concern over the COVID-19 Delta varia...
Andrew Sheets: The Complicated Portrait of Retail Investing
16 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Over the last 18 months, individual investor activity into single stocks has surged. But the bigger story may be the record amount of investment in ET...
Jonathan Garner: 4 Concerns to Watch on Asia & EM Equities
15 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
As the year began, there was a high degree of optimism that 2021 could be a great year for Asia & EM equities. But instead, Asian equities ha...
Michael Zezas: The $4 Trillion-Dollar Question
14 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The U.S. could be gearing up to approve $4 trillion in new spending over the next 10 years. A look at what that could mean for GDP and Treasuries.
Mike Wilson: Are U.S. Equities Markets Hunkering Down?
13 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Major U.S. indices may be climbing to all-time highs but broader weakness in individual stock prices could be sending investors a signal.
Graham Secker: Is the Best of Europe's Equities Run Behind Us?
12 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
After performing strongly for much of this year, European stocks have traded sideways over the last month. But a closer look at the data suggests an o...
Andrew Sheets: What's Driving Global Equities Markets?
09 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Although a typical explanation for market strength has been the large amount of cash being pushed into markets from central banks and investors, it’...
Michael Zezas: Something Special in the Air for Investors?
08 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Last week, U.S. air travel surpassed 2019 levels. And this recovery in demand may be an important story for both fixed income and equity investors to ...
Mike Wilson: Reopening Stocks Feel the Pinch
07 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Labor-intensive companies that should benefit from the reopening are feeling the pinch from rising wage costs. With growth stocks likely overbought, w...
Special Episode: The Complex Outlook for U.S. Housing
06 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
U.S. home price growth has been on a tear, but will affordability pressures begin weighing on home sales? The answer is a bit complicated.
Andrew Sheets: 2021 - A Look Back, a Look Forward
02 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
It's easy to forget just how different the world looked just six months ago. Does the renewed optimism suggest higher returns or just higher expectati...
Chetan Ahya: Has the Tide Finally Turned on Wage Growth?
01 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Until recently, wages have been on a forty year decline, driving new calls for policymaker action. A look at the implications for GDP, inflation and i...
Special Episode: U.S. Infrastructure - What’s in the Price?
30 Jun 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Is U.S. infrastructure already priced into Treasury yields? The answer may lie with whether investors are accurately gauging the true size of the...
Special Episode: The Red-Hot Return of Business Investment
29 Jun 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The robust return of business investment is set to be a key theme for investors. On this episode we examine the bullish outlook for communications equ...
Mike Wilson: A Growing Economy Leads to New Questions
28 Jun 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With the economic recovery in full bloom, companies and investors may now be faced with new questions around higher materials and labor costs.
Special Episode, Part 2: Viruses, Variants and Vaccines
25 Jun 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets continues his conversation with Biotech Equity Analyst Matt Harrison on COVID-19 variants and the future of...
Special Episode: Viruses, Variants and Vaccines - What’s Next?
25 Jun 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Although the darkest days of COVID-19 are hopefully behind us, new variants, vaccine distribution issues and uncertainty about winter still remain key...
Robin Xing: Is China's Recovery Losing Momentum?
23 Jun 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Since last year, China's economic recovery has been strong… but uneven. After a hiccup in the second quarter, will manufacturing and consumers come ...
Special Episode: The Fed Is Talking Taper… But When?
23 Jun 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Last week, the Fed rattled markets by laying the groundwork for tapering its asset purchase program. But is this taper talk? Or just talking about tal...