Thoughts on the Market

Mike Wilson: 2022 Mid-Year Takeaways

23 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As we enter the second half of 2022, the market is signaling a continued de-rating of equities, lingering challenges for consumers, and an increased b...

Andrew Sheets: Finding Order in Market Chaos

20 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

2022 is off to a rocky start for markets, but there is an organization to this downturn that is unlike recent episodes of market weakness, meaning inv...

Mid-Year Outlook: European Energy & Growth Challenges

20 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With rising prices already on the minds of investors and consumers, the outlook in Europe remains challenged across supply chains, inflation rates and...

Global Politics: The Opportunity for Mexico

18 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As we continue to track the trends of 'slowbalization' and the shift towards a multipolar world, Mexico stands out as an economy uniquely positioned t...

Mid-Year Economic Outlook: Slowing or Stopping?

18 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As we forecast the remainder of an already uncertain 2022, new questions have emerged around economic data, inflation and the potential for a recessio...

Graham Secker: The Mid-Year Outlook for European Markets

16 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The mid-year outlook for European stocks sees markets encountering a variety of challenges to equity performance, but there may still be some interest...

Todd Castagno: Should Shareholders Care About Stock-Based Compensation?

13 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Stock-based employment compensation has gained popularity in recent years, and even investors who don’t receive employment compensation in stock sho...

Andrew Ruben: Can eCommerce Sustain its Uptrend?

12 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As consumers deal with rising interest rates, persistent inflation, and a desire to get outside in the ever changing COVID environment, the question i...

Special Encore: Transportation - Untangling the Supply Chain

11 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on April 26th, 2022: Global supply chains have been under stress from the pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and inflation, and the out...

Michael Zezas: Supply Chains and the Course for Inflation

10 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. markets and the Federal Reserve have been grappling with high inflation this year, but could changes in global supply chains help make this probl...

Energy: European Power Prices Continue to Climb

09 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While the war in Ukraine has had an effect on the current pricing in European energy markets, there is more to the story of why high prices could pers...

Andrew Sheets: Are Oil and Stock Prices Now Disconnected?

06 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While oil prices usually rise and fall with the overall stock market, current prices have broken from this trend and oil may continue to outperform on...

Labor: The Rise of the Multi-Earner Economy

06 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As “The Gig Economy” has evolved to become the Multi-Earner economy, an entire ecosystem reinventing how people earn a living, equity investors wi...

Andrew Sheets: Having Rules to Follow Helps In Uncertain Times

04 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

2022 has presented a complex set of challenges, meaning investors may want to take a step back and consult rules-based indicators and strategies for s...

Michael Zezas: What's Next for U.S./China Trade?

03 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As U.S. voters continue to show support for trade policy in regards to China, investors will want to track which actions could have consequences for C...

Credit: The ‘Income’ is Back in Fixed Income

03 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Credit markets are facing various headwinds, including policy tightening and slowing growth, and credit investors are looking for where they might see...

Retail Investing, Pt. 2: ESG and Fixed Income

29 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As investors look to diversify their portfolios, there are two big stories to keep an eye on: the historic rise in bond yields and the increased adopt...

Retail Investing, Pt. 1: International Exposure

28 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With questions around equity outperformance, tech overvaluation and currency headwinds in the U.S., retail investors may want to look internationally ...

Michael Zezas: Legislation that Matters to Markets

27 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The U.S. Congress has been quietly making progress on a couple of key pieces of legislation, and investors should be aware of which bills will matter ...

Transportation: Untangling the Supply Chain

26 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Global supply chains have been under stress from the pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and inflation, and the outlook for transportation in 2022 is a m...

Mike Wilson: U.S. Stocks and the Oncoming Slowdown

25 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As U.S. equity markets digest higher inflation and a more hawkish Fed, the question is when this will turn into a headwind for earnings growth.-----Tr...

Jonathan Garner: Looking for Alternatives to Emerging Markets

22 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Forecasts for China and other Emerging Markets have continued on a downtrend, extending last year’s underperformance, meaning investors might want t...

Andrew Sheets: Can Bonds Once Again Play Defense?

21 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. Treasury bonds have seen significant losses over the last six months, but looking forward investors may be able to use bonds to help balance thei...

Graham Secker: A Cautious View on European Stocks

20 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Although consensus forecasts for European equities continue to trend up, there are a few key risks on the horizon that investors may want to keep an e...

Robert Rosener: How U.S. Businesses See the Road Ahead

20 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the U.S. Economy contends with higher inflation, supply chain stress, and rising recession risks, one indicator to keep an eye on is what’s going...

Mike Wilson: Inflation Drags on Forward Earnings

19 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While ongoing inflation has had some positive effects, consumers continue to feel its ill effects and we are beginning to see net negatives for earnin...

U.S. Economy: When to Worry About the Yield Curve

15 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While there continues to be a lot of market chatter surrounding recession risks and the U.S. Treasury yield curve, there are several key factors that ...

Michael Zezas: An Optimistic Look at Bonds

13 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As investors continue to discuss the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Treasury market, there may be some good news for bond holders as the year progre...

U.S. Housing: Supply, Demand, and the Yield Curve

12 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

In light of the U.S. Treasury yield curve recently inverting, many are asking if home prices will be affected and how the housing market might look go...

Special Encore: Sheena Shah - Is Cryptocurrency Becoming Currency?

12 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on March 31st, 2022: As interest in using cryptocurrencies for transactions continues to rise for both consumers and businesses, cryp...

Andrew Sheets: A New Outlook on U.S. Bonds

08 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Since the Fed’s first rate hike and the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, the outlook on U.S. government bonds has changed, leading to a n...

Europe: Geopolitics and the ECB

07 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the European Central Bank prepares to meet, the war in Ukraine continues to add to uncertainty, forcing investors in Europe to adjust their expecta...

Michael Zezas: Will Gas Prices Come Down?

06 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the U.S. government attempts to combat high gas prices by drawing on its oil reserves, investors should pay attention to the impacts on the U.S. ec...

Special Encore: The Fed - Learning From the Last Hiking Cycle

05 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on March 30th, 2022: As the Fed kicks off a new rate hiking cycle, investors are looking back at the previous hiking cycle to ease th...

Mike Wilson: Revisiting the 2022 Outlook

04 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With the end of the first financial quarter of 2022 the market has begun to price in some of the continuing risks to economic growth, forcing investor...

Andrew Sheets: Markets Look to the Yield Curve

01 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Investors are looking to the U.S. Treasury bond market as concerns rise around what the flattening, and potential inversion, of the yield curve might ...

Sheena Shah: Is Cryptocurrency Becoming Currency?

31 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As interest in using cryptocurrencies for transactions continues to rise for both consumers and businesses, crypto has begun a cycle of increased stab...

The Fed: Learning From the Last Hiking Cycle

30 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the Fed kicks off a new rate hiking cycle, investors are looking back at the previous hiking cycle to ease their concerns today. Head of Public Pol...

Energy: Oil, Gas and the Clean Energy Transition

29 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As oil and gas prices rise, governments and investors must weigh investment in clean energy initiatives and new capacity in traditional energy commodi...

Mike Wilson: Why Are Equity Risk Premiums So Low?

28 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the Fed continues down a hawkish road for 2022, investors must consider the impact of policy tightening on economic growth and equity risk premiums...

U.S. Economy: Tracking Rate Hike Implications

25 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The new Fed hiking cycle has begun and with it comes expectations for faster rate hikes and quantitative tightening to address inflation, as well as q...

Matthew Hornbach: Easing Yield Curve Concerns

24 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While the possibility of a yield curve inversion in the U.S. has news outlets and investors wondering if a recession is on the way, there’s more to ...

Michael Zezas: A Framework for ESG Growth in U.S.

23 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While the demand for Environmental, Social, and Governance investing has been growing primarily in Europe, a potential new regulatory policy may drive...

Andrew Sheets: The Housing Inflation Puzzle

22 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While the cost of shelter has risen quickly, the measure of housing inflation has been slow to catch up, creating challenges for renters, homeowners a...

Mike Wilson: Late Cycle Signals

21 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

This year is validating our call for a shorter but hotter economic cycle. As the indicators begin to point to a late-cycle environment, here’s how i...

Andrew Sheets: The Fed has More Work to Do

18 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The U.S. Federal Reserve recently enacted its first interest rate hike in two years, but there is still more work to be done to counteract rising infl...

James Lord: Will the U.S. Dollar Still Prevail?

17 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The U.S. and its allies have frozen the Central Bank of Russia’s foreign currency reserves, leading to questions about the safety of FX assets more ...

Michael Zezas: A False Choice for Energy Policy

16 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As oil prices rise across the globe, investors wonder if governments will continue to incentivize clean energy development or pivot to greater investm...

Jonathan Garner: Commodities, Geopolitical Risk and Asia & EM Equities

15 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As global markets face a rise in commodity prices due to geopolitical conflict, investors in Asia and EM equities will want to keep an eye on the dive...

Mike Wilson: Will Slowing Growth Alter the Fed’s Path?

14 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

This week the market turns to the Federal Reserve as it eyes challenges to growth while remaining committed to combating high inflation with its first...

Special Episode: Sanctions, Bonds and Currency Markets

11 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With multiple countries now imposing sanctions, investors in Russian government bonds and currencies will need to consider their options as the risk o...

Special Episode: Inflation, Energy and the U.S Consumer

10 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As inflation remains a focal point for the U.S. consumer, higher energy costs will dampen discretionary spending for some. But not all are impacted eq...

Michael Zezas: The Macro Impacts of Oil Prices

09 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With the rising cost of oil comes concerns around economic growth, but the distinction between the impact in Europe and the US is important, presentin...

Graham Secker: Stagflation Pressure Meets Pricing Power

08 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As European markets price in slowing growth, increased inflation and geopolitical tensions, pricing power is a potential focus for European investors ...

Mike Wilson: A More Bearish View for 2022

07 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The year of the stock picker is in full swing as investors look towards a future of Fed tightening and geopolitical uncertainty, where some individual...

Andrew Sheets: A Different Story for Global Markets

04 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While the U.S. continues to see high valuations, rising inflation, and slow policy tightening, the story is quite different for many markets outside t...

Special Episode: How Fed Policy Impacts Housing

03 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the Fed continues to signal coming rate hikes this year, the housing market will face implications across home sales, mortgage rates, and fundament...

Michael Zezas: Key Questions Amidst Geopolitical Tensions

03 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The recent crisis in Ukraine has caused a great deal of uncertainty in the economy and markets. To cut through the noise, we take a look at the three ...

Martijn Rats: Uncertainty for Oil and Gas

02 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to unfold, implications for the oil and gas sector in Europe are beginning to take shape.Importan...

Vishy Tirupattur: Corporate Credit Faces New Challenges

28 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Like many markets, Corporate Credit has faced a rocky start to 2022. For investors, understanding the difference between default and duration risk wil...

Andrew Sheets: Geopolitics, Inflation and Central Banks

26 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As markets react to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, price moves for corn, wheat, oil and metals may mean new inflationary pressures for centr...

Special Episode: Changing Tides - Water Scarcity

25 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Water scarcity brings unique challenges in the path to a more sustainable future. Solving for them will mean both risk and opportunity for governments...

Mike Wilson: The Prospect of a Continued Correction

24 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While geopolitical tensions currently weigh on markets, investors should look to the fundamentals in order to anticipate the depth and duration of the...

Special Episode, Pt. 2: Inflation Around the World

23 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The challenges of inflation can be felt around the world, but understanding the regional differences is key to an effective 2022 for both central bank...

Special Episode, Pt. 1: Two Kinds of Inflation

18 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Inflation has reached levels not seen in years, but there is an important distinction to be made between frictional and cyclical inflation, one that h...

Special Episode: All Eyes on Ukraine

17 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The ongoing situation around Ukraine has captivated headlines and investors alike. While the resolution remains unclear, we can begin to predict how m...

Special Encore: Consider the Muni Market

16 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on February 2nd, 2022: The Federal Reserve continues to face a host of uncertainties, leading to volatility in the Treasuries market....

Mike Wilson: Unpacking the Latest CPI

15 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the Fed grapples with new data from last week's Consumer Price Index report, markets are pricing a move away from the dovish policy of the past and...

Jonathan Garner: Welcome to the Year of the Tiger

14 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As investors face the multitude of risks ahead, one may need to think like the Tiger and use the rotation towards value stocks, and away from growth, ...

Andrew Sheets: Where is Inflation Headed?

11 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Headlines today are focused on US Consumer Price Inflation rising 7.5% versus 1 year ago. The question on the minds of consumers and investors alike i...

Special Encore: Tax-Efficient Strategies

10 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on January 25th, 2022: With inflation on the minds of consumers and the Fed reacting with a sharp turn towards tightening, 2022 may b...

Michael Zezas: Fiscal Policy Takes a Back Seat

09 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Many investors are asking when Congress will withdraw its fiscal policy support. Our answer? It already has, and 2022 could be a year where fiscal pol...

Graham Secker: Feeling Positive About UK Equities

08 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Despite having been one of the worst performing stock markets over the last 5 years, the UK is seeing a dramatic turnaround reflected in the FTSE100 i...

Mike Wilson: Six More Weeks of Slow Growth

07 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As we head towards the final weeks of winter, we are predicting a period of continued slow growth. As evidence we look not to our shadow but at earnin...

Special Episode: The Improving Case for Commodities

05 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

For only the second time in the last decade, commodities outperformed equities in 2021. Looking ahead at 2022, what challenges and opportunities are o...

Matt Hornbach: What Moves Real Yields?

03 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Yields on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are set to rise but, beyond inflation, what other factors will drive moves in real yields ...

Michael Zezas: Consider the Muni Market

02 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The Federal Reserve continues to face a host of uncertainties, leading to volatility in the Treasuries market. This trend may lead some investors to r...

Reza Moghadam: Is The ECB Behind The Curve?

02 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The European Central Bank has indicated it would not raise rates this year, but markets are not fully convinced as shifts in inflation, gas prices and...

Andrew Sheets: Systematic vs. Subjective Investing

31 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Investing strategies can be categorized into two broad categories: subjective and systematic. While some prefer one over the other, the best outcomes ...

Special Episode: New Challenges for The US Consumer

28 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Consumer prices reached an all-time high this past December, and a new year brings new challenges across inflation, wage growth and interest rates.---...

Matt Hornbach: Getting Real on Yields for TIPS

27 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Despite two good years for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, a dramatic rise in real yields may be cause for investors to reexamine th...

Michael Zezas: U.S. & China - Unfinished Business

27 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

2022 is likely to bring fresh challenges for the U.S.-China dynamic. Investors can expect an increase in non-tariff barriers and continued commitment ...

Special Episode: Tax-Efficient Strategies

26 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With inflation on the minds of consumers and the Fed reacting with a sharp turn towards tightening, 2022 may be a year for investors to focus on incor...

Mike Wilson: Fixation on the Fed

24 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

All eyes are on the Fed as they implement a sharp pivot to account for higher inflation being felt by consumers and businesses alike. With these shift...

Andrew Sheets: Protecting Against Inflation

21 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Higher levels of inflation have made it a hot topic among investors. While inflation’s effects cannot be avoided completely, there are some strategi...

2022 US Housing Outlook: Strong Foundations but Reduced Affordability

20 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The foundation for the housing market remains healthy in 2022, with responsible lending standards and a tight supply environment, but, as the year con...

2022 Global Currency Outlook: The Trick is in The Timing

19 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

In 2021, many expected the US dollar to face significant challenges yet the year ended with strong levels coming off a mid-year rally. As we look out ...

Mike Wilson: Pricing a More Hawkish Fed

18 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While our outlook for 2022 already called for a hawkish Fed, recent signals from the central bank of more aggressive tightening have given cause to re...

Andrew Sheets: Adjusting to a New Fed Tone

14 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

After two years of support and accommodation from the Fed, 2022 is seeing a shift in tone towards the strength of the economy and risks of inflation, ...

Michael Zezas: The Fed’s Tough Job Ahead

13 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Confirmation hearings for Fed Chair Powell’s second term highlighted the challenges for the year ahead. Inflation concerns fueled by high demand and...

Special Episode, Pt. 2: Long-Term Supply Chain Restructuring

13 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the acute bottlenecks in supply chains resolve in the long-term, some structural issues may remain, creating both opportunities and challenges for ...

Special Episode, Pt. 1: Near-Term Supply Chain Restructuring

12 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Supply chain delays are on the minds of not only investors, policymakers and business owners, but the average consumer as well. How will recent challe...

Mike Wilson: Will 2022 be a 2013 ‘Taper Tantrum’ Redux?

10 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the year gets underway, we are seeing an aggressive rotation from growth to value stocks, triggered by Fed tapering. Will 2022 follow the patterns ...

Andrew Sheets: New Wrinkles for the 2022 Story

07 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The start of 2022 has brought a surge in COVID cases, new payroll data, increased geopolitical risks, and shifts from the Fed. Despite these new devel...

Graham Secker: Will Europe Be Derailed By Omicron?

06 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Despite last year’s strong showing for European equities, will the recent spread of the Omicron variant derail our positive outlook for the region i...

Michael Zezas: Why are Markets Unfazed by Omicron?

05 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As 2022 gets underway, investors are concerned about the Omicron variant of COVID-19, yet markets are taking developments in stride, with higher stock...

Jonathan Garner: Omicron Impacts Across Asia

04 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the Omicron variant spreads across Asia, renewed lockdowns and other earnings outlook disruptions have investors on alert, reinforcing our approach...

Michael Wilson: New Year, New Opportunities

03 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With a new calendar year, the narrative in markets may not be shifting but there are still opportunities for investors to consider as growth rates, po...

End-of-Year Encore: Space Investing

30 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on August 24th, 2021: Recent developments in space travel may be setting the stage for a striking new era of tech investment. Are inv...

End-of-Year Encore: Retail Investing

29 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on September 30th, 2021: Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, discusses the new shape of reta...