Thoughts on the Market
Episodes
Mike Wilson: Revisiting the 2022 Outlook
04 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
With the end of the first financial quarter of 2022 the market has begun to price in some of the continuing risks to economic growth, forcing investor...
Andrew Sheets: Markets Look to the Yield Curve
01 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Investors are looking to the U.S. Treasury bond market as concerns rise around what the flattening, and potential inversion, of the yield curve might ...
Sheena Shah: Is Cryptocurrency Becoming Currency?
31 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As interest in using cryptocurrencies for transactions continues to rise for both consumers and businesses, crypto has begun a cycle of increased stab...
The Fed: Learning From the Last Hiking Cycle
30 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As the Fed kicks off a new rate hiking cycle, investors are looking back at the previous hiking cycle to ease their concerns today. Head of Public Pol...
Energy: Oil, Gas and the Clean Energy Transition
29 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As oil and gas prices rise, governments and investors must weigh investment in clean energy initiatives and new capacity in traditional energy commodi...
Mike Wilson: Why Are Equity Risk Premiums So Low?
28 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As the Fed continues down a hawkish road for 2022, investors must consider the impact of policy tightening on economic growth and equity risk premiums...
U.S. Economy: Tracking Rate Hike Implications
25 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The new Fed hiking cycle has begun and with it comes expectations for faster rate hikes and quantitative tightening to address inflation, as well as q...
Matthew Hornbach: Easing Yield Curve Concerns
24 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
While the possibility of a yield curve inversion in the U.S. has news outlets and investors wondering if a recession is on the way, there’s more to ...
Michael Zezas: A Framework for ESG Growth in U.S.
23 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
While the demand for Environmental, Social, and Governance investing has been growing primarily in Europe, a potential new regulatory policy may drive...
Andrew Sheets: The Housing Inflation Puzzle
22 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
While the cost of shelter has risen quickly, the measure of housing inflation has been slow to catch up, creating challenges for renters, homeowners a...
Mike Wilson: Late Cycle Signals
21 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
This year is validating our call for a shorter but hotter economic cycle. As the indicators begin to point to a late-cycle environment, here’s how i...
Andrew Sheets: The Fed has More Work to Do
18 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The U.S. Federal Reserve recently enacted its first interest rate hike in two years, but there is still more work to be done to counteract rising infl...
James Lord: Will the U.S. Dollar Still Prevail?
17 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The U.S. and its allies have frozen the Central Bank of Russia’s foreign currency reserves, leading to questions about the safety of FX assets more ...
Michael Zezas: A False Choice for Energy Policy
16 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As oil prices rise across the globe, investors wonder if governments will continue to incentivize clean energy development or pivot to greater investm...
Jonathan Garner: Commodities, Geopolitical Risk and Asia & EM Equities
15 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As global markets face a rise in commodity prices due to geopolitical conflict, investors in Asia and EM equities will want to keep an eye on the dive...
Mike Wilson: Will Slowing Growth Alter the Fed’s Path?
14 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
This week the market turns to the Federal Reserve as it eyes challenges to growth while remaining committed to combating high inflation with its first...
Special Episode: Sanctions, Bonds and Currency Markets
11 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
With multiple countries now imposing sanctions, investors in Russian government bonds and currencies will need to consider their options as the risk o...
Special Episode: Inflation, Energy and the U.S Consumer
10 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As inflation remains a focal point for the U.S. consumer, higher energy costs will dampen discretionary spending for some. But not all are impacted eq...
Michael Zezas: The Macro Impacts of Oil Prices
09 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
With the rising cost of oil comes concerns around economic growth, but the distinction between the impact in Europe and the US is important, presentin...
Graham Secker: Stagflation Pressure Meets Pricing Power
08 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As European markets price in slowing growth, increased inflation and geopolitical tensions, pricing power is a potential focus for European investors ...
Mike Wilson: A More Bearish View for 2022
07 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The year of the stock picker is in full swing as investors look towards a future of Fed tightening and geopolitical uncertainty, where some individual...
Andrew Sheets: A Different Story for Global Markets
04 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
While the U.S. continues to see high valuations, rising inflation, and slow policy tightening, the story is quite different for many markets outside t...
Special Episode: How Fed Policy Impacts Housing
03 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As the Fed continues to signal coming rate hikes this year, the housing market will face implications across home sales, mortgage rates, and fundament...
Michael Zezas: Key Questions Amidst Geopolitical Tensions
03 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The recent crisis in Ukraine has caused a great deal of uncertainty in the economy and markets. To cut through the noise, we take a look at the three ...
Martijn Rats: Uncertainty for Oil and Gas
02 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to unfold, implications for the oil and gas sector in Europe are beginning to take shape.Importan...
Vishy Tirupattur: Corporate Credit Faces New Challenges
28 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Like many markets, Corporate Credit has faced a rocky start to 2022. For investors, understanding the difference between default and duration risk wil...
Andrew Sheets: Geopolitics, Inflation and Central Banks
26 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As markets react to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, price moves for corn, wheat, oil and metals may mean new inflationary pressures for centr...
Special Episode: Changing Tides - Water Scarcity
25 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Water scarcity brings unique challenges in the path to a more sustainable future. Solving for them will mean both risk and opportunity for governments...
Mike Wilson: The Prospect of a Continued Correction
24 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
While geopolitical tensions currently weigh on markets, investors should look to the fundamentals in order to anticipate the depth and duration of the...
Special Episode, Pt. 2: Inflation Around the World
23 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The challenges of inflation can be felt around the world, but understanding the regional differences is key to an effective 2022 for both central bank...
Special Episode, Pt. 1: Two Kinds of Inflation
18 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Inflation has reached levels not seen in years, but there is an important distinction to be made between frictional and cyclical inflation, one that h...
Special Episode: All Eyes on Ukraine
17 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The ongoing situation around Ukraine has captivated headlines and investors alike. While the resolution remains unclear, we can begin to predict how m...
Special Encore: Consider the Muni Market
16 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on February 2nd, 2022: The Federal Reserve continues to face a host of uncertainties, leading to volatility in the Treasuries market....
Mike Wilson: Unpacking the Latest CPI
15 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As the Fed grapples with new data from last week's Consumer Price Index report, markets are pricing a move away from the dovish policy of the past and...
Jonathan Garner: Welcome to the Year of the Tiger
14 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As investors face the multitude of risks ahead, one may need to think like the Tiger and use the rotation towards value stocks, and away from growth, ...
Andrew Sheets: Where is Inflation Headed?
11 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Headlines today are focused on US Consumer Price Inflation rising 7.5% versus 1 year ago. The question on the minds of consumers and investors alike i...
Special Encore: Tax-Efficient Strategies
10 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on January 25th, 2022: With inflation on the minds of consumers and the Fed reacting with a sharp turn towards tightening, 2022 may b...
Michael Zezas: Fiscal Policy Takes a Back Seat
09 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Many investors are asking when Congress will withdraw its fiscal policy support. Our answer? It already has, and 2022 could be a year where fiscal pol...
Graham Secker: Feeling Positive About UK Equities
08 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Despite having been one of the worst performing stock markets over the last 5 years, the UK is seeing a dramatic turnaround reflected in the FTSE100 i...
Mike Wilson: Six More Weeks of Slow Growth
07 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As we head towards the final weeks of winter, we are predicting a period of continued slow growth. As evidence we look not to our shadow but at earnin...
Special Episode: The Improving Case for Commodities
05 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
For only the second time in the last decade, commodities outperformed equities in 2021. Looking ahead at 2022, what challenges and opportunities are o...
Matt Hornbach: What Moves Real Yields?
03 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Yields on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are set to rise but, beyond inflation, what other factors will drive moves in real yields ...
Michael Zezas: Consider the Muni Market
02 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The Federal Reserve continues to face a host of uncertainties, leading to volatility in the Treasuries market. This trend may lead some investors to r...
Reza Moghadam: Is The ECB Behind The Curve?
02 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The European Central Bank has indicated it would not raise rates this year, but markets are not fully convinced as shifts in inflation, gas prices and...
Andrew Sheets: Systematic vs. Subjective Investing
31 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Investing strategies can be categorized into two broad categories: subjective and systematic. While some prefer one over the other, the best outcomes ...
Special Episode: New Challenges for The US Consumer
28 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Consumer prices reached an all-time high this past December, and a new year brings new challenges across inflation, wage growth and interest rates.---...
Matt Hornbach: Getting Real on Yields for TIPS
27 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Despite two good years for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, a dramatic rise in real yields may be cause for investors to reexamine th...
Michael Zezas: U.S. & China - Unfinished Business
27 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
2022 is likely to bring fresh challenges for the U.S.-China dynamic. Investors can expect an increase in non-tariff barriers and continued commitment ...
Special Episode: Tax-Efficient Strategies
26 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
With inflation on the minds of consumers and the Fed reacting with a sharp turn towards tightening, 2022 may be a year for investors to focus on incor...
Mike Wilson: Fixation on the Fed
24 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
All eyes are on the Fed as they implement a sharp pivot to account for higher inflation being felt by consumers and businesses alike. With these shift...
Andrew Sheets: Protecting Against Inflation
21 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Higher levels of inflation have made it a hot topic among investors. While inflation’s effects cannot be avoided completely, there are some strategi...
2022 US Housing Outlook: Strong Foundations but Reduced Affordability
20 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The foundation for the housing market remains healthy in 2022, with responsible lending standards and a tight supply environment, but, as the year con...
2022 Global Currency Outlook: The Trick is in The Timing
19 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
In 2021, many expected the US dollar to face significant challenges yet the year ended with strong levels coming off a mid-year rally. As we look out ...
Mike Wilson: Pricing a More Hawkish Fed
18 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
While our outlook for 2022 already called for a hawkish Fed, recent signals from the central bank of more aggressive tightening have given cause to re...
Andrew Sheets: Adjusting to a New Fed Tone
14 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
After two years of support and accommodation from the Fed, 2022 is seeing a shift in tone towards the strength of the economy and risks of inflation, ...
Michael Zezas: The Fed’s Tough Job Ahead
13 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Confirmation hearings for Fed Chair Powell’s second term highlighted the challenges for the year ahead. Inflation concerns fueled by high demand and...
Special Episode, Pt. 2: Long-Term Supply Chain Restructuring
13 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As the acute bottlenecks in supply chains resolve in the long-term, some structural issues may remain, creating both opportunities and challenges for ...
Special Episode, Pt. 1: Near-Term Supply Chain Restructuring
12 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Supply chain delays are on the minds of not only investors, policymakers and business owners, but the average consumer as well. How will recent challe...
Mike Wilson: Will 2022 be a 2013 ‘Taper Tantrum’ Redux?
10 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As the year gets underway, we are seeing an aggressive rotation from growth to value stocks, triggered by Fed tapering. Will 2022 follow the patterns ...
Andrew Sheets: New Wrinkles for the 2022 Story
07 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The start of 2022 has brought a surge in COVID cases, new payroll data, increased geopolitical risks, and shifts from the Fed. Despite these new devel...
Graham Secker: Will Europe Be Derailed By Omicron?
06 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Despite last year’s strong showing for European equities, will the recent spread of the Omicron variant derail our positive outlook for the region i...
Michael Zezas: Why are Markets Unfazed by Omicron?
05 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As 2022 gets underway, investors are concerned about the Omicron variant of COVID-19, yet markets are taking developments in stride, with higher stock...
Jonathan Garner: Omicron Impacts Across Asia
04 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As the Omicron variant spreads across Asia, renewed lockdowns and other earnings outlook disruptions have investors on alert, reinforcing our approach...
Michael Wilson: New Year, New Opportunities
03 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
With a new calendar year, the narrative in markets may not be shifting but there are still opportunities for investors to consider as growth rates, po...
End-of-Year Encore: Space Investing
30 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on August 24th, 2021: Recent developments in space travel may be setting the stage for a striking new era of tech investment. Are inv...
End-of-Year Encore: Retail Investing
29 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on September 30th, 2021: Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, discusses the new shape of reta...
End-of-Year Encore: Thematic Investing
28 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on August 12th, 2021: Investor interest in thematic equity products such as ETFs has rapidly surged, particularly among tech themes. ...
End-of-Year Encore: Factor Investing
27 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on August 26th, 2021: Equity investors have applied factor-driven strategies for years, but the approach has seen slow adoption in bo...
Michael Zezas: A More Flexible Fed
22 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Recent signals from the Fed are indicative of a willingness to change its mind quickly. While bond investors may be wary of the volatility this could ...
Chetan Ahya: China’s 2022 Policy Shifts
21 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With shifting focus across regulatory, monetary and fiscal policy, there is renewed confidence in the growth and recovery outlook for China in 2022.--...
Mike Wilson: Fire & Ice Continues Into Year-end
21 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Our narrative of tightening monetary policy and decelerating growth continues to play out amidst developments in Omicron, failed legislation and signa...
Welcome to Thoughts on the Market
20 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
A quick preview of what you'll hear on the Thoughts On The Market podcast, which features short, thoughtful and regular takes on recent events in the ...
Andrew Sheets: Challenges to the 2022 Story Emerge
17 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With recent signals from the Federal Reserve and new data on the Omicron variant, there’s a lot that could impact the shape of 2022, but for now the...
Matthew Harrison: COVID-19 - Omicron Updates
16 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The last week brought new evidence regarding the transmissibility, immune evasion and disease severity of Omicron, and with it, more clarity on the co...
Michael Zezas: Supply Chain Woes Also Create Opportunities
15 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
While many are hopeful for an easing of supply chain delays in 2022, the resolution of these issues may lead to new challenges and opportunities in ke...
Sheena Shah: The Financialization of Cryptocurrency
14 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Cryptocurrency companies have begun to act as banks in the US, and while regulators have expressed concerns over interest rates and the primacy of the...
2022 U.S. Equities Outlook: Still Favoring the Base Case
13 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Our 2022 outlook presented a wider than normal range of potential paths. While our base case still appears likely, shifts in supply and Fed policy cou...
2022 Rates & Currency Outlook: What’s Changed?
10 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With recent central bank action raising questions on monetary policy, Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach takes us through the implications...
2022 US Economic Outlook: Gauging Inflation, Labor & The Fed
10 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The US economy is in a unique moment of uncertainty but headed into 2022, shifts in inflation, the labor market and Fed policy tell a constructive sto...
Michael Zezas: Congress Eyes Tech Regulation in 2022
09 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Headed into next year, ‘Build Back Better’ legislation remains a work in progress, but Congress may find common ground in both parties’ concerns...
Special Episode: Early Vaccine Data on Omicron
08 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With early data in on the Omicron variant, biotechnology analyst Matthew Harrison takes us through where we stand on vaccine efficacy headed into the ...
2022 European Equities Outlook: Volatility Inbound
08 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With investors expected to deal with an increase in volatility in 2022, our outlook for European equities remains strong into next year.----- Transcri...
Mike Wilson: Why Have Stocks Been So Weak?
06 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The past few weeks have seen weak valuations across equity markets. While many look to the Omicron variant as the main culprit, the correction may hav...
Andrew Sheets: For the Fed, Are Tapering and Raising Rates the Same Thing?
03 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
One of our most controversial calls for 2022, that the Fed won’t hike interest rates next year, faces renewed scrutiny amidst high inflation, signal...
2022 Asia Equities Outlook: Key Debates
02 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Chief Asia and Emerging Markets Strategist Jonathan Garner highlights the key debates around his team’s outlook on the region’s growth, policy cha...
Michael Zezas: New Restrictions in Light of Omicron?
01 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The Omicron variant of COVID-19 has investors concerned about potential new restrictions, but the onus lies most on state and local governments who, f...
Special Episode: COVID-19 - Omicron Variant Causes Concern
01 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Last week’s news of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 has raised questions about transmissibility, vaccine efficacy, and virus mortality. Where does t...
Mike Wilson: Markets React to Omicron
29 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With last week’s news of the Omicron variant of COVID-19, markets sold-off sharply on Friday, but beyond the headlines, there may be other underlyin...
Michael Zezas: A Step Forward for Build Back Better
24 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The Build Back Better Act took a key step towards becoming law last week, signaling implications for fiscal policy and taxation as the bill heads to t...
Andrew Sheets: Twists and Turns In 2022
23 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Our 500th episode! From all of us at Morgan Stanley, thanks to our listeners for all your support!An overview of our expectations for the year ahead a...
Mike Wilson: 2022 Equity Outlook Feedback and Debates
22 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
With the release of our outlook for the coming year comes a cycle of feedback and debates from clients and investors. We look at those discussions aro...
2022 Global Economic Outlook, Pt. 2: Debates and Uncertainties
19 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Andrew Sheets continues his discussion with Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter on Morgan Stanley’s more optimistic economic outlook for 2022, wha...
2022 Global Economic Outlook, Pt. 1: Optimism in the New Year
18 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Andrew Sheets speaks with Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter on Morgan Stanley’s more optimistic economic outlook for 2022 and how consumer spend...
Michael Zezas: A New Normal for U.S./China Relations
17 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
This week’s meeting between President Biden and President Xi was not a return to an earlier phase of relations between their two countries. Instead,...
Special Episode: The Low-Income Real Estate Story
17 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The housing market has seen record home price growth this year. But who does this boom benefit and who gets left behind?----- Transcript -----Jim Egan...
Mike Wilson: In 2022, Stock Picking May Lead
15 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Coming out of a year marked by greater uncertainty and volatility, 2022 is poised to be a year which favors single stock investing over a focus on sty...
Andrew Sheets: Bond Markets Get Jumpy
12 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Over the last decade, bonds have been a source of stability. But, with surprising moves this past month, they’ve now become a risk-management challe...
Matt Hornbach: What the Fed Wants, the Fed Gets
11 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Coming out of last week’s FOMC meeting, the Fed’s wants are becoming clearer but the implications into 2022 for asset prices, interest rates and e...
Michael Zezas: The Infrastructure Supercycle is Here
11 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The bipartisan infrastructure bill has passed, and while investors will see some short term impacts, the bigger question is how long will it take for ...
Graham Secker: A Curious Case of Price Movements
09 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Third quarter earnings are heading into the home stretch in Europe and the UK, but while a solid number of companies have beat earnings estimates, mar...