Thoughts on the Market
Episodes
Mike Wilson: The Increasing Risks to Earnings
29 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
With Fed messaging making it clear they’re not yet done fighting inflation, the market is left to contend with the recent rally and prepare to adjus...
Andrew Sheets: Is Cash an Efficient Asset Allocation?
26 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Though returns offered by cash have been historically bad over the last 10 years, the tide has begun to turn on cash yields and investors will want to...
Martijn Rats: Rising Gas Prices and Shifting Oil Demand
25 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
This year has seen a sharp rally in the oil and gas markets, leading to high prices and a delicate balancing act for global supply and demand.&nb...
Jonathan Garner: What's Next for Asia and Emerging Markets?
24 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As Asia and EM equities continue to experience what may end up being the longest bear market in the history of the asset class, looking to past bear m...
U.S. Public Policy: The Inflation Reduction Act and Clean Energy
23 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The Inflation Reduction Act represents the single biggest climate investment in U.S. history, so how will these provisions influence consumers' pocket...
Mike Wilson: Will the Bear Market Rebound Last?
22 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
While stocks and bonds have rallied since June, investors should be asking if this bear market rebound is a sign that economic growth is on its way up...
Simon Waever: Is an EM Debt Crisis Coming?
19 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
In the past two years Emerging Market sovereign debt has seen rising risks given increased borrowing, higher interest rates and a greater number of de...
U.S. Public Policy: Tax Provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act
18 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The Inflation Reduction Act includes a variety of provisions regarding tax policy, so how will these policy changes affect corporations and what shoul...
Allocation, Pt. 2: The Value in Diversification
17 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
While shifts in stock and bond correlation have increased the volatility of a 60:40 portfolio, investors may still find some balance in diversificatio...
Allocation, Pt. 1: Stock & Bond Correlation Shifts
16 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
In the current era of tighter Fed policy, the status quo of stock and bond correlation has changed, calling the foundational 60:40 portfolio into ques...
Ellen Zentner: Cooling Inflation and Shifting Labor Trends
15 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Based on July reports inflation may finally be cooling down, and the labor market remains strong, so how might this new data influence policy changes ...
Consumer Spending: Have Consumers Begun to Trade Down?
12 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As inflation persists, economic concerns such as recession rise, and consumer spending patterns begin to shift, is there any evidence to suggest consu...
Sheena Shah: When will Crypto Prices Find a Bottom?
11 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As bitcoin has been experiencing a steep decline in the last 6 months, investors are beginning to wonder when Cryptocurrencies will finally bottom out...
U.S. Public Policy: Will the Inflation Reduction Act Actually Reduce Inflation?
10 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The Senate just passed the Inflation Reduction Act which seeks to fight inflation on a variety of fronts, but the most pressing question is, will the ...
U.S. Housing: Will New Lending Standards Slow Housing Activity?
09 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As lending standards tighten and banks get ready to make some tough choices, how will the housing market fare if loan growth slows? Co-Heads of U.S. S...
Josh Pokrzywinski: Deflationary Opportunities
08 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
While inflation remains high and the battle to bring it down is top of mind, there may be some opportunities in technologies that could help bring dow...
Andrew Sheets: What Can We Learn from Market Prices?
06 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The current market pricing can tell investors a lot about what the market believes is coming next, but the future is uncertain and investors may not a...
Michael Zezas: The U.S. and China, a History of Competition
04 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As investors watch to see if tensions between the U.S. and China will escalate, it’s important to understand the underlying competitive dynamic and ...
Matthew Hornbach: The Fed Pivot That Wasn’t Quite As It Seemed
03 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
After the July FOMC meeting, markets took a quick dive and then made an immediate recovery, so what happened?-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts o...
Pharmaceuticals: The Global Obesity Challenge
03 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As studies begin to show that obesity medications may save lives, will governments and insurances begin to consider them preventative primary care? An...
Mike Wilson: Are Recession Risks Priced in?
01 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As the Fed continues to surprise with large and fast interest rate increases, the market must decide, has the Fed done enough? Or is the recession alr...
Andrew Sheets: Is 60:40 Diversification Broken?
29 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
One of the most common standards for investment diversification, the 60:40 portfolio, has faced challenges this year with significant losses and shift...
Andrew Sheets: Big Moves From The Fed
28 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Yesterday, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by another 75 basis points. What is driving these above average rate hikes and what might th...
Michael Zezas: Midterms Remain a Market Factor
27 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
While midterm polls have shown a preference for republican candidates, this lead is narrowing as the election grows closer, and the full ramifications...
Jorge Kuri: Buy Now, Pay Later in Latin America
26 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As young, digitized consumers have popularized the “Buy Now, Pay Later” payment system across global markets, there may yet be related market oppo...
Mike Wilson: Is this the End of the Bear Market?
25 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As markets grapple with pricing in inflation, central bank rate hikes, and slowing growth, can the recent S&P 500 rally help investors gauge what ...
Europe: Why is the ECB Increasing their Rate Hikes?
22 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
This week the European Central Bank surprised economists and investors alike with a higher than anticipated rate hike, so why this hike and what comes...
Special Encore: Michelle Weaver - Checking On The Consumer
21 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on July 1st, 2022: As inflation continues to be a major concern for the U.S., investors will want to pay attention to how spending, t...
Special Episode: The Next Phase of ESG
20 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Interest in ESG investing has risen exponentially in recent years, leading to increased scrutiny around, and appreciation for, the hard data. Head of ...
Michelle Weaver: Beneficiaries of China’s Reopening
19 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As U.S. Equities continue to face challenges this year, investors may want to look to a more positive story across the world—the reopening of China....
Mike Wilson: Preparing for Potential Recession
18 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Some investors think a potential recession is already priced in but given defensive leadership, labor statistics and incoming Fed rate hikes, it may b...
Andrew Sheets: When Will High Inflation End?
15 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
This week brought yet another reading of inflation that exceeded expectations, but if markets and central banks are able to think long-term, there may...
Special Encore: Global Equities - Are Value Stocks on the Rise?
14 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on July 1st, 2022: For the last decade investors have been focused on highflying growth stocks, but this investing environment may be...
Michael Zezas: Renewed Motivation In Congress
13 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
After the recent Supreme Court ruling against the Environmental Protection Agency, Democrats appear poised to respond with a budget reconciliation pla...
Graham Secker: Will European Earnings Continue to Fall?
12 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As Europe continues to curtail Russian gas imports, equity markets are preparing for further downturn in European economic growth, but there may be mo...
Mike Wilson: U.S. Dollar Strength vs. Earnings Growth
11 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
While stocks have recently rallied, the strength of the U.S. dollar has risen sharply over the past year, presenting a major potential headwind for eq...
Lauren Schenk: Consumer Spending and Online Dating
08 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As investors in the internet industry have begun to wonder if online dating platforms will sink or swim in the case of a recession, looking back on th...
Michelle Weaver: Checking On The Consumer
07 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As inflation continues to be a major concern for the U.S., investors will want to pay attention to how spending, travel and sentiment are changing for...
Michael Zezas: The Impact of Tariff Relief
06 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As media reports indicate a possible tariff reduction on imports from China, some investors are wondering if this is signaling a return of modest trad...
Special Encore: U.S. Housing - Breaking Records not Bubbles
05 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on June 16th, 2022: While many investors may be curious to know what other investors are thinking and feelin...
Global Equities: Are Value Stocks on the Rise?
01 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
For the last decade investors have been focused on highflying growth stocks, but this investing environment may be the exception rather than the rule....
Jonathan Garner: Why Japan Should Have Investors’ Attention
30 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As the risks to international economic growth increase, global investors may find some good news in the Japanese equities market. -----Transcript...
Michael Zezas: Next Steps for the U.S. and China
29 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As legislators try to manage the U.S. and China’s economic relationship, outbound investors will want to keep tabs on potential policy com...
U.S. Fixed Income: When will the Treasury Market Rally?
28 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As the Fed continues with aggressive policy tightening, fixed income investors may be wondering if the bond market is accurately priced and when we mi...
Mike Wilson: The Confounding Bear Market
27 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Talk of recession continues among investors and consumers alike, but last week saw a sharp rally in U.S. Equities. Is this just a blip or could U...
Special Encore: Andrew Sheets - How Useful is Investor Sentiment?
24 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on June 9th, 2022: While many investors may be curious to know what other investors are thinking and feeling...
Seth Carpenter: A Stark Choice for the European Central Bank
23 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Inflation has continued to surprise to the upside, causing global central banks to face a difficult choice; continue to raise rates at the risk of rec...
Michael Zezas: Evaluating Anti-Inflation Measures
22 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As inflation remains top of mind from Wall Street to the White House, policy makers continue to propose possible actions to fight inflation, but will ...
Mike Wilson: The Increasing Risk of Recession
21 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As price to earnings multiples fall and inflation continues to weigh on the economy, long term earnings estimates may still be too high as the risk of...
Andrew Sheets: Balance Sheets Take a Back Seat
17 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
With so much going on in markets, some moves that may have been hot topics against a less chaotic backdrop, such as policy shifts towards shrinking ce...
U.S. Housing: Breaking Records not Bubbles
16 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
With home prices hitting new highs and inventory hitting new lows, the differences between now and the last housing bubble may help ease investors' wo...
Michael Zezas: Can the Muni Market Provide Shelter?
15 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
With concern high over inflation and tightening Fed policy, investors looking for practical solutions may want to take another look at the municipal b...
Graham Secker: The High Cost of Capital
14 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As central bank policy across the globe shifts from tight fiscal policy to tight monetary policy, the rising cost of capital will have long-term conse...
Mike Wilson: The Decline in Consumer Sentiment
13 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
With consumer sentiment hitting an all time low due to inflation concerns, the question investors should be asking is, are these risks to the economy ...
Robert Rosener: The Continued Rise in Inflation
10 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As inflation continues to rise beyond expectations, the Fed is set to meet next week, leaving markets to wonder if an acceleration in rate hikes might...
Andrew Sheets: How Useful is Investor Sentiment?
09 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
While many investors may be curious to know what other investors are thinking about current and future market trends, there’s a lot more to the calc...
Seth Carpenter: Spiking Food Prices and the Global Economy
08 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Under the combined stresses of dry weather, COVID, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, agricultural prices are spiking, and many countries are scramb...
U.S. Politics: How the Midterms Could Affect Your Tax Rates
07 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As some provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act start to kick in and others are set to expire, the future of U.S. tax rates may hinge on the results o...
Mike Wilson: Will Earnings Growth Reaccelerate?
06 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
While markets look forward to an acceleration in earnings growth and a subsequent rise in valuations over the next year, there are risks to this outlo...
Special Encore: Mid-Year Economic Outlook - Slowing or Stopping?
03 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on May 17th, 2022: As we forecast the remainder of an already uncertain 2022, new questions have emerged around economic data, inflat...
Andrew Sheets: Are Central Banks Making a Mistake?
02 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
In the years since the Global Financial Crisis, central bank policy has been supportive and predictable. But as the economic backdrop changes, shifts ...
U.S. Politics: Market Implications of the Midterm Election
01 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Looking back on the 2016 and 2020 elections, it is clear that elections can have a significant impact on the U.S. economic outlook. The question is&nb...
Jonathan Garner: Keeping it Simple in Turbulent Times
31 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
While there continues to be turbulence in many sectors, such as energy and food, some Asia and Emerging Markets may fare better than others through th...
Andrew Sheets: The Changing Story of Inflation
27 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
So far this year's economic story has been dominated by inflation and central bank policy, but as that landscape changes, is it time to shift focus ba...
Matthew Hornbach: Will Treasury Yields Move Higher?
26 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
With growth slowing and the Fed focused on fighting inflation, investors should note that the outlook for government bonds depends on more than just c...
Asia: Supply Chain Woes, and Opportunities
25 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Stress on supply chains has driven a slowdown in globalization, but there are also investment opportunities emerging, particularly in Asia. Head of Pu...
Sheena Shah: What is Causing the Crypto Downturn?
24 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
So far this year cryptocurrencies have been on a swift downturn, increasingly in line with equity market moves. What's behind this correlation? And wh...
Mike Wilson: 2022 Mid-Year Takeaways
23 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As we enter the second half of 2022, the market is signaling a continued de-rating of equities, lingering challenges for consumers, and an increased b...
Andrew Sheets: Finding Order in Market Chaos
20 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
2022 is off to a rocky start for markets, but there is an organization to this downturn that is unlike recent episodes of market weakness, meaning inv...
Mid-Year Outlook: European Energy & Growth Challenges
20 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
With rising prices already on the minds of investors and consumers, the outlook in Europe remains challenged across supply chains, inflation rates and...
Global Politics: The Opportunity for Mexico
18 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As we continue to track the trends of 'slowbalization' and the shift towards a multipolar world, Mexico stands out as an economy uniquely positioned t...
Mid-Year Economic Outlook: Slowing or Stopping?
18 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As we forecast the remainder of an already uncertain 2022, new questions have emerged around economic data, inflation and the potential for a recessio...
Graham Secker: The Mid-Year Outlook for European Markets
16 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The mid-year outlook for European stocks sees markets encountering a variety of challenges to equity performance, but there may still be some interest...
Todd Castagno: Should Shareholders Care About Stock-Based Compensation?
13 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Stock-based employment compensation has gained popularity in recent years, and even investors who don’t receive employment compensation in stock sho...
Andrew Ruben: Can eCommerce Sustain its Uptrend?
12 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As consumers deal with rising interest rates, persistent inflation, and a desire to get outside in the ever changing COVID environment, the question i...
Special Encore: Transportation - Untangling the Supply Chain
11 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on April 26th, 2022: Global supply chains have been under stress from the pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and inflation, and the out...
Michael Zezas: Supply Chains and the Course for Inflation
10 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
U.S. markets and the Federal Reserve have been grappling with high inflation this year, but could changes in global supply chains help make this probl...
Energy: European Power Prices Continue to Climb
09 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
While the war in Ukraine has had an effect on the current pricing in European energy markets, there is more to the story of why high prices could pers...
Andrew Sheets: Are Oil and Stock Prices Now Disconnected?
06 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
While oil prices usually rise and fall with the overall stock market, current prices have broken from this trend and oil may continue to outperform on...
Labor: The Rise of the Multi-Earner Economy
06 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As “The Gig Economy” has evolved to become the Multi-Earner economy, an entire ecosystem reinventing how people earn a living, equity investors wi...
Andrew Sheets: Having Rules to Follow Helps In Uncertain Times
04 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
2022 has presented a complex set of challenges, meaning investors may want to take a step back and consult rules-based indicators and strategies for s...
Michael Zezas: What's Next for U.S./China Trade?
03 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As U.S. voters continue to show support for trade policy in regards to China, investors will want to track which actions could have consequences for C...
Credit: The ‘Income’ is Back in Fixed Income
03 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Credit markets are facing various headwinds, including policy tightening and slowing growth, and credit investors are looking for where they might see...
Retail Investing, Pt. 2: ESG and Fixed Income
29 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As investors look to diversify their portfolios, there are two big stories to keep an eye on: the historic rise in bond yields and the increased adopt...
Retail Investing, Pt. 1: International Exposure
28 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
With questions around equity outperformance, tech overvaluation and currency headwinds in the U.S., retail investors may want to look internationally ...
Michael Zezas: Legislation that Matters to Markets
27 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The U.S. Congress has been quietly making progress on a couple of key pieces of legislation, and investors should be aware of which bills will matter ...
Transportation: Untangling the Supply Chain
26 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Global supply chains have been under stress from the pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and inflation, and the outlook for transportation in 2022 is a m...
Mike Wilson: U.S. Stocks and the Oncoming Slowdown
25 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As U.S. equity markets digest higher inflation and a more hawkish Fed, the question is when this will turn into a headwind for earnings growth.-----Tr...
Jonathan Garner: Looking for Alternatives to Emerging Markets
22 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Forecasts for China and other Emerging Markets have continued on a downtrend, extending last year’s underperformance, meaning investors might want t...
Andrew Sheets: Can Bonds Once Again Play Defense?
21 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
U.S. Treasury bonds have seen significant losses over the last six months, but looking forward investors may be able to use bonds to help balance thei...
Graham Secker: A Cautious View on European Stocks
20 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Although consensus forecasts for European equities continue to trend up, there are a few key risks on the horizon that investors may want to keep an e...
Robert Rosener: How U.S. Businesses See the Road Ahead
20 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As the U.S. Economy contends with higher inflation, supply chain stress, and rising recession risks, one indicator to keep an eye on is what’s going...
Mike Wilson: Inflation Drags on Forward Earnings
19 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
While ongoing inflation has had some positive effects, consumers continue to feel its ill effects and we are beginning to see net negatives for earnin...
U.S. Economy: When to Worry About the Yield Curve
15 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
While there continues to be a lot of market chatter surrounding recession risks and the U.S. Treasury yield curve, there are several key factors that ...
Michael Zezas: An Optimistic Look at Bonds
13 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As investors continue to discuss the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Treasury market, there may be some good news for bond holders as the year progre...
U.S. Housing: Supply, Demand, and the Yield Curve
12 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
In light of the U.S. Treasury yield curve recently inverting, many are asking if home prices will be affected and how the housing market might look go...
Special Encore: Sheena Shah - Is Cryptocurrency Becoming Currency?
12 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on March 31st, 2022: As interest in using cryptocurrencies for transactions continues to rise for both consumers and businesses, cryp...
Andrew Sheets: A New Outlook on U.S. Bonds
08 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Since the Fed’s first rate hike and the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, the outlook on U.S. government bonds has changed, leading to a n...
Europe: Geopolitics and the ECB
07 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As the European Central Bank prepares to meet, the war in Ukraine continues to add to uncertainty, forcing investors in Europe to adjust their expecta...
Michael Zezas: Will Gas Prices Come Down?
06 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
As the U.S. government attempts to combat high gas prices by drawing on its oil reserves, investors should pay attention to the impacts on the U.S. ec...