Thoughts on the Market

Andrew Sheets: Overseas, Currency Matters

14 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

When investing in overseas markets, 'hedging' one's investment not only offers potential protection from the fluctuations of the local currency but po...

ESG: A New Framework for Utilities

13 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Increasing ESG pervasiveness has led to increasing confusion, in particular around how investors might apply these criteria to the utility sector. Hea...

U.S. Economy: Is Inventory Outpacing Sales?

12 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As consumption of goods slows post COVID, companies are experiencing a build up in inventory that could have far reaching implications. Head of Global...

Seth Carpenter: The Political Economy

11 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

All over the world elections are taking place that will have profound effects on both local and global economies, so where are policy moves being made...

Mike Wilson: Earnings Begin to Guide Lower

10 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Last week stocks rallied quickly but dropped just as fast as markets continue to hope for a more dovish Fed, but will this 2-way risk continue as evid...

Chetan Ahya: When Will China’s Economy Reopen?

07 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While China’s policy objectives strive for common prosperity, the country’s strict COVID management poses risks to employment and income, so when ...

U.S. Housing: Are Home Prices Decelerating?

06 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As month over month data begins to show a downturn in home prices, will overall price growth and sales begin to fall steeper than expected? Co-Heads o...

Michael Zezas: Shifting Global Supply Chains

05 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As globalization slows and companies begin to nearshore their supply chains, investors may be wondering what the costs and benefits are of bringing ma...

Vishy Tirupattur: Can Corporate Credit Provide Shelter?

04 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With investors becoming pervasively bearish on stocks and bonds in the face of a worsening growth outlook, can the U.S. investment grade credit market...

Mike Wilson: The Problem with the U.S. Dollar

03 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With rates and currency markets experiencing increasing volatility, the state of global U.S. dollar supply has begun to force central bank moves, leav...

Global Macro: Intervention & Inflation

30 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Amidst increased volatility across credit, equity and FX markets, many investors this week are wondering, what is the path ahead for Fed intervention?...

Jonathan Garner: An Unusual Cycle for Asia and EM Equities

29 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Asia and EM equities are on the verge of the longest bear market in their history, so what is the likelihood that a sharp fall in prices follows soon ...

Ellen Zentner: The Narrowing Path for a Soft Landing

28 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the Fed continues to increase their peak rate of interest, the path for a soft landing narrows, so what deflationary indicators need to show up in ...

Martijn Rats: Will Oil Prices Continue to Fall?

27 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While the global oil market has seen a decrease in demand, supply issues are still prevalent, leaving investors to question where oil prices are heade...

Mike Wilson: A Sudden Drop for Stocks and Bonds

26 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

After last week’s Fed meeting and another rate hike, both stocks and bonds dropped back to June lows. The question is, will this turn to the downsid...

U.S. Economy: The Fed Continues to Fight Inflation

23 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

After another Fed meeting and another historically high rate hike, it’s clear that the Fed is committed to fighting inflation, but how and when will...

Thematic Investing: Moonshots

22 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With high returns in mind, investors may be looking to get in on the ground floor with the next ambitious and disruptive technology, but how are these...

Michael Zezas: Why Isn’t Fed Hiking Impacting Inflation?

21 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Though the Fed continues to raise interest rates, inflation is still high year over year, so why haven’t rate hikes begun to bring inflation down ye...

Robin Xing: Can China’s Economy Stabilize Global Growth?

20 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the global economic outlook turns toward a slowdown in growth, some investors may look to China for stability, but, when they do, what will they fi...

Seth Carpenter: Tracking the Coming Slowdown

19 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

From Europe, to China, to the U.S., global economies are facing unique challenges as the brewing storm of recession risks seem to still indicate a slo...

Andrew Sheets: The Case for Credit

16 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While credit and equities have both suffered this year, economic conditions in the U.S. and Emerging Markets may lead to credit having a bit more stab...

U.S. Public Policy: The Impact of Student Loan Forgiveness

15 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The White House recently announced a student loan forgiveness program, prompting questions about implementation, economic implications, and whether th...

Michael Zezas: Why the Midterm Elections Matter

14 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With only 60 days to go until the U.S. midterm elections, investors will want to know how different outcomes could impact markets, both locally and gl...

Daniel Blake: The Resilience of Japanese Equities

13 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As various global markets contend with high inflation, recession risks, and monetary policy tightening, Japanese equities may provide some opportuniti...

Graham Secker: European Equities Face Earnings Concerns

12 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Even as the European equity market contends with inflation, a slowing economy and a climate of decreased earnings, there are positives to be found if ...

Andrew Sheets: The Complex U.K. Economy

09 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the world turns to the U.K., the country faces a host of domestic and international economic challenges, but there may yet be some bright spots for...

Matthew Hornbach: How Markets Price in Quantitative Tightening

08 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The impact of quantitative monetary policies is hard to understand, for investors and academics alike, but why are these impacts so complex and how mi...

U.S. Housing: Will Housing Prices Continue to Rise?

07 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While home price appreciation appears to be slowing, and a rapid increase in supply is hitting the market, how will housing prices fare through the re...

Mike Wilson: Preparing for an Icy Winter

06 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While interest rates have already weighed on asset markets this year and growth continues to slow, the Fed seems poised to continue on its tightening ...

Andrew Sheets: The State of Play in Markets Globally

02 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

There has been a lot of market movement in recent months, so as we exit the summer, what are the market stories and valuations that investors should b...

Chetan Ahya: Why are Asia’s Exports Deflating?

01 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As consumers around the globe scale back on goods spending, how are Asian export markets impacted and where might opportunities lie?-----Transcript---...

Serena Tang: Global Cross-Asset Risk Premiums

31 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While markets wrestle with high inflation and recession worries, investors will want to keep an eye on the rise in risk premiums and the outlook for l...

Seth Carpenter: Is a Global Recession Upon Us?

30 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Amid global shocks across supply, commodities and the U.S. Dollar, central banks continue to fight hard against inflation, leading many to wonder if a...

Mike Wilson: The Increasing Risks to Earnings

29 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With Fed messaging making it clear they’re not yet done fighting inflation, the market is left to contend with the recent rally and prepare to adjus...

Andrew Sheets: Is Cash an Efficient Asset Allocation?

26 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Though returns offered by cash have been historically bad over the last 10 years, the tide has begun to turn on cash yields and investors will want to...

Martijn Rats: Rising Gas Prices and Shifting Oil Demand

25 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

This year has seen a sharp rally in the oil and gas markets, leading to high prices and a delicate balancing act for global supply and demand.&nb...

Jonathan Garner: What's Next for Asia and Emerging Markets?

24 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As Asia and EM equities continue to experience what may end up being the longest bear market in the history of the asset class, looking to past bear m...

U.S. Public Policy: The Inflation Reduction Act and Clean Energy

23 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The Inflation Reduction Act represents the single biggest climate investment in U.S. history, so how will these provisions influence consumers' pocket...

Mike Wilson: Will the Bear Market Rebound Last?

22 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While stocks and bonds have rallied since June, investors should be asking if this bear market rebound is a sign that economic growth is on its way up...

Simon Waever: Is an EM Debt Crisis Coming?

19 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

In the past two years Emerging Market sovereign debt has seen rising risks given increased borrowing, higher interest rates and a greater number of de...

U.S. Public Policy: Tax Provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act

18 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The Inflation Reduction Act includes a variety of provisions regarding tax policy, so how will these policy changes affect corporations and what shoul...

Allocation, Pt. 2: The Value in Diversification

17 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While shifts in stock and bond correlation have increased the volatility of a 60:40 portfolio, investors may still find some balance in diversificatio...

Allocation, Pt. 1: Stock & Bond Correlation Shifts

16 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

In the current era of tighter Fed policy, the status quo of stock and bond correlation has changed, calling the foundational 60:40 portfolio into ques...

Ellen Zentner: Cooling Inflation and Shifting Labor Trends

15 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Based on July reports inflation may finally be cooling down, and the labor market remains strong, so how might this new data influence policy changes ...

Consumer Spending: Have Consumers Begun to Trade Down?

12 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As inflation persists, economic concerns such as recession rise, and consumer spending patterns begin to shift, is there any evidence to suggest consu...

Sheena Shah: When will Crypto Prices Find a Bottom?

11 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As bitcoin has been experiencing a steep decline in the last 6 months, investors are beginning to wonder when Cryptocurrencies will finally bottom out...

U.S. Public Policy: Will the Inflation Reduction Act Actually Reduce Inflation?

10 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The Senate just passed the Inflation Reduction Act which seeks to fight inflation on a variety of fronts, but the most pressing question is, will the ...

U.S. Housing: Will New Lending Standards Slow Housing Activity?

09 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As lending standards tighten and banks get ready to make some tough choices, how will the housing market fare if loan growth slows? Co-Heads of U.S. S...

Josh Pokrzywinski: Deflationary Opportunities

08 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While inflation remains high and the battle to bring it down is top of mind, there may be some opportunities in technologies that could help bring dow...

Andrew Sheets: What Can We Learn from Market Prices?

06 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The current market pricing can tell investors a lot about what the market believes is coming next, but the future is uncertain and investors may not a...

Michael Zezas: The U.S. and China, a History of Competition

04 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As investors watch to see if tensions between the U.S. and China will escalate, it’s important to understand the underlying competitive dynamic and ...

Matthew Hornbach: The Fed Pivot That Wasn’t Quite As It Seemed

03 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

After the July FOMC meeting, markets took a quick dive and then made an immediate recovery, so what happened?-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts o...

Pharmaceuticals: The Global Obesity Challenge

03 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As studies begin to show that obesity medications may save lives, will governments and insurances begin to consider them preventative primary care? An...

Mike Wilson: Are Recession Risks Priced in?

01 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the Fed continues to surprise with large and fast interest rate increases, the market must decide, has the Fed done enough? Or is the recession alr...

Andrew Sheets: Is 60:40 Diversification Broken?

29 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

One of the most common standards for investment diversification, the 60:40 portfolio, has faced challenges this year with significant losses and shift...

Andrew Sheets: Big Moves From The Fed

28 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Yesterday, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by another 75 basis points. What is driving these above average rate hikes and what might th...

Michael Zezas: Midterms Remain a Market Factor

27 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While midterm polls have shown a preference for republican candidates, this lead is narrowing as the election grows closer, and the full ramifications...

Jorge Kuri: Buy Now, Pay Later in Latin America

26 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As young, digitized consumers have popularized the “Buy Now, Pay Later” payment system across global markets, there may yet be related market oppo...

Mike Wilson: Is this the End of the Bear Market?

25 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As markets grapple with pricing in inflation, central bank rate hikes, and slowing growth, can the recent S&P 500 rally help investors gauge what ...

Europe: Why is the ECB Increasing their Rate Hikes?

22 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

This week the European Central Bank surprised economists and investors alike with a higher than anticipated rate hike, so why this hike and what comes...

Special Encore: Michelle Weaver - Checking On The Consumer

21 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on July 1st, 2022: As inflation continues to be a major concern for the U.S., investors will want to pay attention to how spending, t...

Special Episode: The Next Phase of ESG

20 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Interest in ESG investing has risen exponentially in recent years, leading to increased scrutiny around, and appreciation for, the hard data. Head of ...

Michelle Weaver: Beneficiaries of China’s Reopening

19 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As U.S. Equities continue to face challenges this year, investors may want to look to a more positive story across the world—the reopening of China....

Mike Wilson: Preparing for Potential Recession

18 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Some investors think a potential recession is already priced in but given defensive leadership, labor statistics and incoming Fed rate hikes, it may b...

Andrew Sheets: When Will High Inflation End?

15 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

This week brought yet another reading of inflation that exceeded expectations, but if markets and central banks are able to think long-term, there may...

Special Encore: Global Equities - Are Value Stocks on the Rise?

14 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on July 1st, 2022: For the last decade investors have been focused on highflying growth stocks, but this investing environment may be...

Michael Zezas: Renewed Motivation In Congress

13 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

After the recent Supreme Court ruling against the Environmental Protection Agency, Democrats appear poised to respond with a budget reconciliation pla...

Graham Secker: Will European Earnings Continue to Fall?

12 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As Europe continues to curtail Russian gas imports, equity markets are preparing for further downturn in European economic growth, but there may be mo...

Mike Wilson: U.S. Dollar Strength vs. Earnings Growth

11 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While stocks have recently rallied, the strength of the U.S. dollar has risen sharply over the past year, presenting a major potential headwind for eq...

Lauren Schenk: Consumer Spending and Online Dating

08 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As investors in the internet industry have begun to wonder if online dating platforms will sink or swim in the case of a recession, looking back on th...

Michelle Weaver: Checking On The Consumer

07 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As inflation continues to be a major concern for the U.S., investors will want to pay attention to how spending, travel and sentiment are changing for...

Michael Zezas: The Impact of Tariff Relief

06 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As media reports indicate a possible tariff reduction on imports from China, some investors are wondering if this is signaling a return of modest trad...

Special Encore: U.S. Housing - Breaking Records not Bubbles

05 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on June 16th, 2022: While many investors may be curious to know what other investors are thinking and feelin...

Global Equities: Are Value Stocks on the Rise?

01 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

For the last decade investors have been focused on highflying growth stocks, but this investing environment may be the exception rather than the rule....

Jonathan Garner: Why Japan Should Have Investors’ Attention

30 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the risks to international economic growth increase, global investors may find some good news in the Japanese equities market. -----Transcript...

Michael Zezas: Next Steps for the U.S. and China

29 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As legislators try to manage the U.S. and China’s economic relationship, outbound investors will want to keep tabs on potential policy com...

U.S. Fixed Income: When will the Treasury Market Rally?

28 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the Fed continues with aggressive policy tightening, fixed income investors may be wondering if the bond market is accurately priced and when we mi...

Mike Wilson: The Confounding Bear Market

27 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Talk of recession continues among investors and consumers alike, but last week saw a sharp rally in U.S. Equities. Is this just a blip or could U...

Special Encore: Andrew Sheets - How Useful is Investor Sentiment?

24 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on June 9th, 2022: While many investors may be curious to know what other investors are thinking and feeling...

Seth Carpenter: A Stark Choice for the European Central Bank

23 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Inflation has continued to surprise to the upside, causing global central banks to face a difficult choice; continue to raise rates at the risk of rec...

Michael Zezas: Evaluating Anti-Inflation Measures

22 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As inflation remains top of mind from Wall Street to the White House, policy makers continue to propose possible actions to fight inflation, but will ...

Mike Wilson: The Increasing Risk of Recession

21 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As price to earnings multiples fall and inflation continues to weigh on the economy, long term earnings estimates may still be too high as the risk of...

Andrew Sheets: Balance Sheets Take a Back Seat

17 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With so much going on in markets, some moves that may have been hot topics against a less chaotic backdrop, such as policy shifts towards shrinking ce...

U.S. Housing: Breaking Records not Bubbles

16 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With home prices hitting new highs and inventory hitting new lows, the differences between now and the last housing bubble may help ease investors' wo...

Michael Zezas: Can the Muni Market Provide Shelter?

15 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With concern high over inflation and tightening Fed policy, investors looking for practical solutions may want to take another look at the municipal b...

Graham Secker: The High Cost of Capital

14 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As central bank policy across the globe shifts from tight fiscal policy to tight monetary policy, the rising cost of capital will have long-term conse...

Mike Wilson: The Decline in Consumer Sentiment

13 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With consumer sentiment hitting an all time low due to inflation concerns, the question investors should be asking is, are these risks to the economy ...

Robert Rosener: The Continued Rise in Inflation

10 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As inflation continues to rise beyond expectations, the Fed is set to meet next week, leaving markets to wonder if an acceleration in rate hikes might...

Andrew Sheets: How Useful is Investor Sentiment?

09 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While many investors may be curious to know what other investors are thinking about current and future market trends, there’s a lot more to the calc...

Seth Carpenter: Spiking Food Prices and the Global Economy

08 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Under the combined stresses of dry weather, COVID, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, agricultural prices are spiking, and many countries are scramb...

U.S. Politics: How the Midterms Could Affect Your Tax Rates

07 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As some provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act start to kick in and others are set to expire, the future of U.S. tax rates may hinge on the results o...

Mike Wilson: Will Earnings Growth Reaccelerate?

06 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While markets look forward to an acceleration in earnings growth and a subsequent rise in valuations over the next year, there are risks to this outlo...

Special Encore: Mid-Year Economic Outlook - Slowing or Stopping?

03 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on May 17th, 2022: As we forecast the remainder of an already uncertain 2022, new questions have emerged around economic data, inflat...

Andrew Sheets: Are Central Banks Making a Mistake?

02 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

In the years since the Global Financial Crisis, central bank policy has been supportive and predictable. But as the economic backdrop changes, shifts ...

U.S. Politics: Market Implications of the Midterm Election

01 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Looking back on the 2016 and 2020 elections, it is clear that elections can have a significant impact on the U.S. economic outlook. The question is&nb...

Jonathan Garner: Keeping it Simple in Turbulent Times

31 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While there continues to be turbulence in many sectors, such as energy and food, some Asia and Emerging Markets may fare better than others through th...

Andrew Sheets: The Changing Story of Inflation

27 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

So far this year's economic story has been dominated by inflation and central bank policy, but as that landscape changes, is it time to shift focus ba...

Matthew Hornbach: Will Treasury Yields Move Higher?

26 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With growth slowing and the Fed focused on fighting inflation, investors should note that the outlook for government bonds depends on more than just c...

Asia: Supply Chain Woes, and Opportunities

25 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Stress on supply chains has driven a slowdown in globalization, but there are also investment opportunities emerging, particularly in Asia. Head of Pu...

Sheena Shah: What is Causing the Crypto Downturn?

24 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

So far this year cryptocurrencies have been on a swift downturn, increasingly in line with equity market moves. What's behind this correlation? And wh...