Thoughts on the Market

Mike Wilson: A Shift in Recession Views

23 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

While there seemed to be a consensus that U.S. Equities will struggle through the first half of the year before finishing strong, views are now varyin...

Andrew Sheets: What is an Optimal Asset Allocation?

20 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The financial landscape is filled with predictions about what comes next for markets, but how do investors use these forecasts to put a portfolio toge...

U.S. Housing: Will Activity Continue to Slow?

19 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With housing data from the last few months of 2022 coming in weaker than expected, what might be in store for mortgage investors? Co-Heads of U.S...

Michael Zezas: The Year of the Long-Term Investor

18 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

At a recent meeting of analysts from around the globe, we identified three central transitions for 2023 that may help investors shift towards a focus ...

Ed Stanley: Key Themes for 2023

17 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

At the start of each new year, we identify 10 overarching themes for the year and beyond. So what should investors be keeping an eye on in the coming ...

Andrew Sheets: Will Emerging Market Outperformance Hold?

13 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

One of the frequent questions regarding Emerging Markets is whether outperformance will hold for the short term or the long term. So what factors shou...

Michael Zezas: Bringing Semiconductors to North America

12 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

At this week’s North American Leaders Summit, the U.S., Canada and Mexico committed to boosting the semiconductor industry in another key step on th...

Quantitative Strategies: A 2023 Return?

11 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

In 2022 it seemed like there was nowhere to hide from the negative returns in traditional investing. But if we look to quantitative strategies, we may...

Mike Wilson: Challenging the Consensus on 2023

10 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As 2023 begins, most market participants agree the first half of the year could be challenging. But when we dig into the details, that's where th...

Martijn Rats: The 2023 Global Oil Outlook

09 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With an eventful year for the oil market behind us, what are the factors that might influence the supply, demand, and ultimately the pricing of oil an...

Andrew Sheets: Lessons from Last Year

06 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Discover what 2022, a historic year for markets, can teach investors as they navigate the new year.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Ma...

Chetan Ahya: Has Inflation in Asia Peaked?

05 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With the fight against inflation quieting down in many regions, Asia saw a relatively small step up in inflation. Will that leave 2023 open to th...

Michael Zezas: Gridlock in the House of Representatives

04 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The House of Representatives continues its struggle to appoint a new Republican Speaker. What should investors consider as this discord sets the legis...

Terence Flynn: The Next Blockbuster for Pharma?

03 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As new weight management medications are being developed, might the obesity market parallel the likes of hypertension or high blood pressure to become...

End-of-Year Encore: 2023 Global Macro Outlook - A Different Kind of Year

30 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on November 15th, 2022: As we look ahead to 2023, we see a divergence away from the trends of 2022 in key areas across growth, inflat...

End-of-Year Encore: Global Thematics - What’s Behind India’s Growth Story?

29 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on December 7th, 2022: As India enters a new era of growth, investors will want to know what’s driving this growth and how it may c...

End-of-Year Encore: Ellen Zentner - Is the U.S. Headed for a Soft Landing?

28 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on December 2nd, 2022: While 2022 saw the fastest pace of policy tightening on record, has the Fed’s hiking cycle properly set the ...

End-of-Year Encore: U.S. Outlook - What Are The Key Debates for 2023?

27 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on November 22nd, 2022: The year ahead outlook is a process of collaboration between strategists and economists from across the firm,...

End-of-Year Encore: U.S. Housing - How Far Will the Market Fall?

23 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on November 17th, 2022: With risks to both home sales and home prices continuing to challenge the housing market, investors will want...

Andrew Sheets: Which Economic Indicators are the Most Useful?

22 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

When attempting to determine what the global economy looks like, some economic indicators at an investors disposal may be more useful, while others la...

Michael Zezas: Legislation to Watch in 2023

21 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As congress wraps up for 2022, and we look towards a divided government in 2023, there are a few possible legislative moves on the horizon that invest...

Global Thematics: A Breakthrough in Nuclear Fusion

20 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With the recent breakthrough in fusion energy technology, the debate around the feasibility of nuclear fusion as a commercialized energy source may le...

Mike Wilson: Have Markets Fully Priced an Earnings Decline?

19 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As focus begins to shift from inflation and interest rates to a possible oncoming earnings recession, what has the market already priced in? And what ...

Andrew Sheets: What Will the End of Rate Hikes Mean?

16 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As cross-asset performance has continued to be weak, there is hope that the end of the Fed’s rate hiking cycle could give markets the boost they nee...

Sarah Wolfe: Are Consumers Going to Pull Back on Spending?

15 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While the consumer has been a pillar of strength this year, continued high inflation, household debt and slowing payroll growth could pose challenges ...

Global Thematics: Earthshots Take on Climate Change

14 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While “Moonshots” attempt to address climate concerns with disruptive technology, more immediate solutions are needed, so what are “Earthshots”...

Ravi Shanker: A Bullish Outlook for Airlines

13 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Over the past few years, the airline industry has faced fluctuations between too hot and too cold across demand, capacity and costs. Could conditions ...

2023 Emerging Markets Outlook: Brighter Days Ahead

12 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Looking to 2023, Emerging Markets and fixed income assets are forecasted to outperform, so what should investors pay close attention to in the new yea...

Andrew Sheets: A More Promising Start to 2023

09 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

2022 was an unusual year for stocks and bonds, and while the future is hard to predict, the start of 2023 is shaping up to look quite different across...

2023 Chinese Economic Outlook: The Path Towards Reopening

08 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As investors have kept China’s road to reopening top of mind, what comes after reopening and how might the Chinese economy and equity markets be imp...

Global Thematics: What’s Behind India’s Growth Story?

07 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As India enters a new era of growth, investors will want to know what’s driving this growth and how it may create once-in-a-generation opportunities...

Matt Hornbach: Key Currency Trends for 2023

06 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As bond markets appear to have already priced in what central banks will likely do in 2023, how will this path impact inflation and currencies around ...

Mike Wilson: Why Did Treasury Bonds Rally?

05 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The tactical rally in stocks has continued and treasury bonds have experienced their own rally, leaving investors to wonder when this bear market migh...

Ellen Zentner: Is the U.S. Headed for a Soft Landing?

02 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While 2022 saw the fastest pace of policy tightening on record, has the Fed’s hiking cycle properly set the U.S. economy up for a soft landing in 20...

Jonathan Garner: A Bullish Turn on Asia and Emerging Markets

01 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As Asia and Emerging Markets move from a year of major adjustment in 2022 towards a less daunting 2023, investors may want to change their approach fo...

Michael Zezas: What Will China’s Reopening Mean for the U.S.?

30 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As China tries to smooth out its COVID caseload, investors should take note of the impacts those COVID policies have on global economies and key marke...

Stephen Byrd: A New Approach to ESG

29 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Traditional ESG investing strategies highlight companies with top scores across ESG metrics, but new research shows value in focusing instead on those...

2023 European Outlook: Recession & Beyond

28 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As we head into a new year, Europe faces multiple challenges across inflation, energy and financial conditions, meaning investors will want to keep an...

Michelle Weaver: A Very Different Holiday Shopping Season

25 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As we enter the holiday shopping season, the challenges facing consumers and retailers look quite different from 2021, so how will inflation and high ...

Michael Zezas: Mixed News from the U.S./China Meeting

23 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While the recent meeting between U.S. President Biden and China’s President Xi has signaled near term stability for the relationship between the two...

U.S. Outlook: What Are The Key Debates for 2023?

22 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The year ahead outlook is a process of collaboration between strategists and economists from across the firm, so what were analysts debating when thin...

Mike Wilson: When Will Market Volatility Subside?

21 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While the outlook for 2023 may seem relatively unexciting, investors will want to prepare for a volatile path to get there, and focus on some key infl...

Robin Xing: China’s 20th Party Congress Commits to Growth

18 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

At the recent 20th Party Congress in China, policy makers made economic growth a top priority, but what are the roadblocks that may be of concern to g...

U.S. Housing: How Far Will the Market Fall?

17 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With risks to both home sales and home prices continuing to challenge the housing market, investors will want to know what is keeping the U.S. housing...

2023 Global Strategy Outlook: Big Shifts in Dynamics

17 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

In looking ahead to 2023, the big dynamics of this year are poised to shift and investors will want to look for safety amidst the coming uncertainty. ...

2023 Global Macro Outlook: A Different Kind of Year

16 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As we look ahead to 2023, we see a divergence away from the trends of 2022 in key areas across growth, inflation, and central bank policy. Chief Cross...

Mike Wilson: Dealing With the Late Cycle Stage

14 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As we transition away from our fire and ice narrative and into the late cycle stage, investors will want to change up their strategies as we finish on...

Global Tech: What’s Next for EdTech?

11 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Education technology, or EdTech, saw significant adoption during the COVID-19 pandemic, yet opportunity remains in this still young industry if one lo...

Michael Zezas: The Midterm Elections’ Market Impact

10 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

It’s almost two full days after the midterm elections in the U.S. and while we still don’t know the outcome, markets may know enough to forecast i...

Stephan Kessler: What Does the Future Hold for ESG Investing?

09 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Critics of sustainable investing have said that Environmental, Social, and Governance strategies require investors to sacrifice long-term returns, but...

U.S. Media: Will Streaming Overtake Traditional Cable?

08 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Increasingly, consumers are moving from traditional cable and satellite subscriptions to connected TV devices, so where do the advertisers go from her...

Mike Wilson: Is the U.S. Equity Rally Over?

07 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With the Fed continuing to focus on inflation and the upcoming midterm elections suggesting market volatility, investors may be wondering, is the U.S....

Andrew Sheets: A Swing Towards Bonds?

04 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As prices for bonds go down and yields go up, investors may be asking why the price is so low, and what this shift may do to the broader market and as...

Labor: Are People Returning to Work?

03 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As developed markets heal from the pandemic, labor force participation has recovered in some areas faster than others, so how will a return to work im...

Michael Zezas: Preparing for an Uncertain Election

02 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

This coming Tuesday is the midterm election in the U.S., so what should investors watch out for as the results roll in? And which outcomes might influ...

Private Markets: Uncertainty in the Golden Age

01 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Over the last decade private markets have outperformed versus public markets, but given the recent public market volatility, will private markets cont...

Mike Wilson: Has the Fed Gone Far Enough?

31 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Despite companies beginning to report earnings misses and poor stock performance, the S&P 500 is on the rise, leading many to wonder how the Fed w...

U.K. Economy: Volatility's Impact Across Markets

28 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the U.K. grapples with structural, political, and economic issues, how are markets affected across assets, and what stories may look better for inv...

U.K. Economy: All Eyes on the U.K.

27 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the U.K. deals with a bout of market volatility, political transitions, and sticky inflation, how will policy makers and the Bank of England respon...

Seth Carpenter: The Next Steps for the Bank of England

26 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the U.K. attempts stabilize its debt to GDP ratio, as well as curb inflation, the question becomes, to what extent will the Bank of England continu...

Michael Zezas: Policy Pressure from the U.S. to China

25 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The Biden administration recently imposed new trade restrictions on exports to China, but what sectors will be impacted and will we continue to see mo...

Mike Wilson: What is Causing the Market Rally?

24 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As equities enjoy their best week since the summer highs in June, investors seem at the mercy of powerful market trends, so when might these trends ta...

Andrew Sheets: The U.K.’s Struggle to Bring Down Inflation

21 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The U.K.’s economy continues to face a host of challenges, including high inflation and a weak currency, and while these problems are not insurmount...

Graham Secker: Do European Earnings Have Further to Fall?

20 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While European earnings have been remarkably resilient this year, and consensus estimates for earnings and corporate margins remain high, there may be...

ESG: How will Evolving Regulations Affect Investment?

19 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the EU puts new regulations on sustainability funds, how will categorization of these funds be impacted, and how might that change investment strat...

Matthew Hornbach: Why U.S. Public Debt Matters

18 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As U.S. Public Debt continues to break records, should investors be concerned by the amount debt has risen? Or are there other, more influential facto...

Mike Wilson: Will Bond Markets Follow the Fed?

17 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Last week's September inflation data brought a subsequent rally in stocks, but can this rally hold while the bond market continues to follow the Fed?-...

Andrew Sheets: Overseas, Currency Matters

14 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

When investing in overseas markets, 'hedging' one's investment not only offers potential protection from the fluctuations of the local currency but po...

ESG: A New Framework for Utilities

13 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Increasing ESG pervasiveness has led to increasing confusion, in particular around how investors might apply these criteria to the utility sector. Hea...

U.S. Economy: Is Inventory Outpacing Sales?

12 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As consumption of goods slows post COVID, companies are experiencing a build up in inventory that could have far reaching implications. Head of Global...

Seth Carpenter: The Political Economy

11 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

All over the world elections are taking place that will have profound effects on both local and global economies, so where are policy moves being made...

Mike Wilson: Earnings Begin to Guide Lower

10 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Last week stocks rallied quickly but dropped just as fast as markets continue to hope for a more dovish Fed, but will this 2-way risk continue as evid...

Chetan Ahya: When Will China’s Economy Reopen?

07 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While China’s policy objectives strive for common prosperity, the country’s strict COVID management poses risks to employment and income, so when ...

U.S. Housing: Are Home Prices Decelerating?

06 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As month over month data begins to show a downturn in home prices, will overall price growth and sales begin to fall steeper than expected? Co-Heads o...

Michael Zezas: Shifting Global Supply Chains

05 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As globalization slows and companies begin to nearshore their supply chains, investors may be wondering what the costs and benefits are of bringing ma...

Vishy Tirupattur: Can Corporate Credit Provide Shelter?

04 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With investors becoming pervasively bearish on stocks and bonds in the face of a worsening growth outlook, can the U.S. investment grade credit market...

Mike Wilson: The Problem with the U.S. Dollar

03 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With rates and currency markets experiencing increasing volatility, the state of global U.S. dollar supply has begun to force central bank moves, leav...

Global Macro: Intervention & Inflation

30 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Amidst increased volatility across credit, equity and FX markets, many investors this week are wondering, what is the path ahead for Fed intervention?...

Jonathan Garner: An Unusual Cycle for Asia and EM Equities

29 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Asia and EM equities are on the verge of the longest bear market in their history, so what is the likelihood that a sharp fall in prices follows soon ...

Ellen Zentner: The Narrowing Path for a Soft Landing

28 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the Fed continues to increase their peak rate of interest, the path for a soft landing narrows, so what deflationary indicators need to show up in ...

Martijn Rats: Will Oil Prices Continue to Fall?

27 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While the global oil market has seen a decrease in demand, supply issues are still prevalent, leaving investors to question where oil prices are heade...

Mike Wilson: A Sudden Drop for Stocks and Bonds

26 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

After last week’s Fed meeting and another rate hike, both stocks and bonds dropped back to June lows. The question is, will this turn to the downsid...

U.S. Economy: The Fed Continues to Fight Inflation

23 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

After another Fed meeting and another historically high rate hike, it’s clear that the Fed is committed to fighting inflation, but how and when will...

Thematic Investing: Moonshots

22 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With high returns in mind, investors may be looking to get in on the ground floor with the next ambitious and disruptive technology, but how are these...

Michael Zezas: Why Isn’t Fed Hiking Impacting Inflation?

21 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Though the Fed continues to raise interest rates, inflation is still high year over year, so why haven’t rate hikes begun to bring inflation down ye...

Robin Xing: Can China’s Economy Stabilize Global Growth?

20 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the global economic outlook turns toward a slowdown in growth, some investors may look to China for stability, but, when they do, what will they fi...

Seth Carpenter: Tracking the Coming Slowdown

19 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

From Europe, to China, to the U.S., global economies are facing unique challenges as the brewing storm of recession risks seem to still indicate a slo...

Andrew Sheets: The Case for Credit

16 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While credit and equities have both suffered this year, economic conditions in the U.S. and Emerging Markets may lead to credit having a bit more stab...

U.S. Public Policy: The Impact of Student Loan Forgiveness

15 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The White House recently announced a student loan forgiveness program, prompting questions about implementation, economic implications, and whether th...

Michael Zezas: Why the Midterm Elections Matter

14 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With only 60 days to go until the U.S. midterm elections, investors will want to know how different outcomes could impact markets, both locally and gl...

Daniel Blake: The Resilience of Japanese Equities

13 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As various global markets contend with high inflation, recession risks, and monetary policy tightening, Japanese equities may provide some opportuniti...

Graham Secker: European Equities Face Earnings Concerns

12 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Even as the European equity market contends with inflation, a slowing economy and a climate of decreased earnings, there are positives to be found if ...

Andrew Sheets: The Complex U.K. Economy

09 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the world turns to the U.K., the country faces a host of domestic and international economic challenges, but there may yet be some bright spots for...

Matthew Hornbach: How Markets Price in Quantitative Tightening

08 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The impact of quantitative monetary policies is hard to understand, for investors and academics alike, but why are these impacts so complex and how mi...

U.S. Housing: Will Housing Prices Continue to Rise?

07 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While home price appreciation appears to be slowing, and a rapid increase in supply is hitting the market, how will housing prices fare through the re...

Mike Wilson: Preparing for an Icy Winter

06 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While interest rates have already weighed on asset markets this year and growth continues to slow, the Fed seems poised to continue on its tightening ...

Andrew Sheets: The State of Play in Markets Globally

02 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

There has been a lot of market movement in recent months, so as we exit the summer, what are the market stories and valuations that investors should b...

Chetan Ahya: Why are Asia’s Exports Deflating?

01 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As consumers around the globe scale back on goods spending, how are Asian export markets impacted and where might opportunities lie?-----Transcript---...

Serena Tang: Global Cross-Asset Risk Premiums

31 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While markets wrestle with high inflation and recession worries, investors will want to keep an eye on the rise in risk premiums and the outlook for l...

Seth Carpenter: Is a Global Recession Upon Us?

30 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Amid global shocks across supply, commodities and the U.S. Dollar, central banks continue to fight hard against inflation, leading many to wonder if a...