Thoughts on the Market

U.S. Tech: The Future of Artificial Intelligence

10 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As the advancement of generative AI takes off, how might this inflection point in technology impact markets, companies, and investors alike? Equity An...

Andrew Sheets: A Test for U.S. Growth

09 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

While the U.S. has surprised investors with its economic resilience, new labor market and retail sales data could challenge this continued strength.--...

Chetan Ahya: Is Asia’s Growth Bouncing Back?

08 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

While there is some skepticism that Asia’s growth will outperform this year, there are a few promising indicators that investors may want to keep in...

Special Encore: Andrew Sheets - The Impact of High Short-Term Yields

07 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on February 24th, 2023: As short-term bond yields continue to rise, what impact does this comparatively high yield have on the broade...

Mike Wilson: A Strong Rebound for Markets

06 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

While equity markets continue to rally, the key to the end of the bear market may be in the fundamentals.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on ...

U.S. Economy: The Next American Productivity Renaissance, Pt. 2

03 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The way companies and individuals spend their money has changed in the wake of the COVID pandemic. How might market leadership shift as a result and w...

U.S. Economy: The Next American Productivity Renaissance, Pt. 1

02 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The COVID pandemic changed the way the U.S. engages with work, but how will these shifts impact structural changes to capital investment? Chief Cross-...

Michael Zezas: The Global Impact of the Inflation Reduction Act

01 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

After the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S., other countries may be looking to invest more in their own energy transitions.----- Tran...

Sarah Wolfe: The Fed Versus Economic Resilience

28 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As the U.S. economy remains resilient in the face of continued rate hikes, investors may wonder if the Fed will re-accelerate their policy tightening ...

Mike Wilson: Is the Worst of this Earnings Cycle Still Ahead?

27 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As we enter the final month of the first quarter, recalling the history of bear market trends could help predict whether earnings will fall again.----...

Andrew Sheets: The Impact of High Short-Term Yields

24 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As short-term bond yields continue to rise, what impact does this comparatively high yield have on the broader market?----- Transcript -----Welcome to...

Sustainability: Carbon Offsets and the Issue of Greenwashing

24 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Companies continue their attempts to mitigate their environmental impact. But are some merely buying their way out of the problem using carbon offsets...

U.S. Housing: Is Activity About to Pick Up?

22 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With housing affordability plateauing and inventory picking up, sales could be poised to rise again in the near future.----- Transcript -----Jim Egan:...

Graham Secker: Are European Equities Still Providing Safety?

21 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

While the causes of the European equity rally have become more clear over time, so have the caveats that warrant caution over optimism for cyclical st...

Andrew Sheets: Falling Expectations for Global Equities

17 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As our outlook for global equities becomes more cautious, what is influencing the move and what should investors watch as the story develops?----- Tra...

Daniel Blake: The End of an Era for Japan

16 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Next month the leadership of the Bank of Japan will change hands, so what policy shifts might be in store and what does this imply for markets?----- T...

Michael Zezas: Understanding the Impact of Elections

15 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As potential candidates begin to announce their presidential campaigns, is it time to start considering how the 2024 race will drive markets?----- Tra...

U.S. Consumer: What’s Coming for Spending in 2023?

14 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Though U.S. consumer spending was surprisingly robust in 2022, this poses both new and continuing challenges as households draw down their excess savi...

Seth Carpenter: Can Inflation Continue To Come Down?

13 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Inflation was a key topic in a recent meeting at the Brookings Institution. While it has trended downward recently, the details are critical to tracki...

Andrew Sheets: The Complexities of Market Risk

10 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

While the risk of economic contraction has lessened in a few regions, is the story of recession and market risk being oversimplified?----- Transcript ...

Vishy Tirupattur: A Change in Fed Policy Expectations

09 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With the latest U.S. employment report showing unexpected resilience in the labor market, what happens now for the Fed and the policy tightening cycle...

Michael Zezas: The State of U.S. Policy

08 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Following last night’s State of the Union Address by President Biden, what are some signals from the speech that investors should consider?----- Tra...

Latin America Economy: The Possibility of Opportunity in 2023

07 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As the outlook for 2023 shows emerging markets looking better positioned than developed markets, how is Latin America faring in this more optimistic s...

U.S. Pharmaceuticals: The Future of Genetic Medicine

06 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As new gene therapies are researched, developed and begin clinical trials, what hurdles must genetic medicine overcome before these therapies are comm...

Andrew Sheets: Where Could Market Strength Persist?

03 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

After a year of falling assets, 2023 has started strong for global markets. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets outlines which markets could su...

Jonathan Garner: Tracking Asia and EM Outperformance

02 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Emerging markets are turning bullish and China’s reopening leaves room for an increase in consumption. What sectors and industries might b...

Michael Zezas: U.S. Policy and Investment Restrictions on China

01 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As reports that the White House may be considering more impactful approaches to Chinese investment restrictions reach investors, how much should they ...

Matt Hornbach: A Narrative of Declining Inflation

31 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As the data continues to show a weakness in inflation, is it enough to convince investors that the Fed may turn dovish on monetary policy? And how are...

Mike Wilson: Fighting the Fear of Missing Out

30 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Stocks have seen a much better start to 2023 than anticipated. But can this upswing continue, or is this merely the last bear market rally before the ...

Andrew Sheets: The Choice Between Equities and Cash

27 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Investing is all about choices, so what should investors know when choosing between holding a financial asset or cash?----- Transcript -----Welcome to...

Graham Secker: An Upturn for European Equities

26 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

European equities have been outperforming U.S. stocks. What’s driving the rally, and will it continue?----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on t...

U.S. Economy: Renegotiating the Debt Ceiling

25 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Last week, the U.S. Treasury hit the debt ceiling. How will markets respond as Congress decides how to move forward? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andr...

U.S. Retail: A Tale of Two Halves

24 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As economic pressures continue to drive consumption in the U.S., how will the health of the economy influence the soft lines industry? Head of Retail ...

Mike Wilson: A Shift in Recession Views

23 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

While there seemed to be a consensus that U.S. Equities will struggle through the first half of the year before finishing strong, views are now varyin...

Andrew Sheets: What is an Optimal Asset Allocation?

20 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The financial landscape is filled with predictions about what comes next for markets, but how do investors use these forecasts to put a portfolio toge...

U.S. Housing: Will Activity Continue to Slow?

19 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With housing data from the last few months of 2022 coming in weaker than expected, what might be in store for mortgage investors? Co-Heads of U.S...

Michael Zezas: The Year of the Long-Term Investor

18 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

At a recent meeting of analysts from around the globe, we identified three central transitions for 2023 that may help investors shift towards a focus ...

Ed Stanley: Key Themes for 2023

17 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

At the start of each new year, we identify 10 overarching themes for the year and beyond. So what should investors be keeping an eye on in the coming ...

Andrew Sheets: Will Emerging Market Outperformance Hold?

13 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

One of the frequent questions regarding Emerging Markets is whether outperformance will hold for the short term or the long term. So what factors shou...

Michael Zezas: Bringing Semiconductors to North America

12 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

At this week’s North American Leaders Summit, the U.S., Canada and Mexico committed to boosting the semiconductor industry in another key step on th...

Quantitative Strategies: A 2023 Return?

11 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

In 2022 it seemed like there was nowhere to hide from the negative returns in traditional investing. But if we look to quantitative strategies, we may...

Mike Wilson: Challenging the Consensus on 2023

10 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As 2023 begins, most market participants agree the first half of the year could be challenging. But when we dig into the details, that's where th...

Martijn Rats: The 2023 Global Oil Outlook

09 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With an eventful year for the oil market behind us, what are the factors that might influence the supply, demand, and ultimately the pricing of oil an...

Andrew Sheets: Lessons from Last Year

06 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Discover what 2022, a historic year for markets, can teach investors as they navigate the new year.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Ma...

Chetan Ahya: Has Inflation in Asia Peaked?

05 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With the fight against inflation quieting down in many regions, Asia saw a relatively small step up in inflation. Will that leave 2023 open to th...

Michael Zezas: Gridlock in the House of Representatives

04 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The House of Representatives continues its struggle to appoint a new Republican Speaker. What should investors consider as this discord sets the legis...

Terence Flynn: The Next Blockbuster for Pharma?

03 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As new weight management medications are being developed, might the obesity market parallel the likes of hypertension or high blood pressure to become...

End-of-Year Encore: 2023 Global Macro Outlook - A Different Kind of Year

30 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on November 15th, 2022: As we look ahead to 2023, we see a divergence away from the trends of 2022 in key areas across growth, inflat...

End-of-Year Encore: Global Thematics - What’s Behind India’s Growth Story?

29 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on December 7th, 2022: As India enters a new era of growth, investors will want to know what’s driving this growth and how it may c...

End-of-Year Encore: Ellen Zentner - Is the U.S. Headed for a Soft Landing?

28 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on December 2nd, 2022: While 2022 saw the fastest pace of policy tightening on record, has the Fed’s hiking cycle properly set the ...

End-of-Year Encore: U.S. Outlook - What Are The Key Debates for 2023?

27 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on November 22nd, 2022: The year ahead outlook is a process of collaboration between strategists and economists from across the firm,...

End-of-Year Encore: U.S. Housing - How Far Will the Market Fall?

23 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on November 17th, 2022: With risks to both home sales and home prices continuing to challenge the housing market, investors will want...

Andrew Sheets: Which Economic Indicators are the Most Useful?

22 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

When attempting to determine what the global economy looks like, some economic indicators at an investors disposal may be more useful, while others la...

Michael Zezas: Legislation to Watch in 2023

21 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As congress wraps up for 2022, and we look towards a divided government in 2023, there are a few possible legislative moves on the horizon that invest...

Global Thematics: A Breakthrough in Nuclear Fusion

20 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With the recent breakthrough in fusion energy technology, the debate around the feasibility of nuclear fusion as a commercialized energy source may le...

Mike Wilson: Have Markets Fully Priced an Earnings Decline?

19 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As focus begins to shift from inflation and interest rates to a possible oncoming earnings recession, what has the market already priced in? And what ...

Andrew Sheets: What Will the End of Rate Hikes Mean?

16 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As cross-asset performance has continued to be weak, there is hope that the end of the Fed’s rate hiking cycle could give markets the boost they nee...

Sarah Wolfe: Are Consumers Going to Pull Back on Spending?

15 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While the consumer has been a pillar of strength this year, continued high inflation, household debt and slowing payroll growth could pose challenges ...

Global Thematics: Earthshots Take on Climate Change

14 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While “Moonshots” attempt to address climate concerns with disruptive technology, more immediate solutions are needed, so what are “Earthshots”...

Ravi Shanker: A Bullish Outlook for Airlines

13 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Over the past few years, the airline industry has faced fluctuations between too hot and too cold across demand, capacity and costs. Could conditions ...

2023 Emerging Markets Outlook: Brighter Days Ahead

12 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Looking to 2023, Emerging Markets and fixed income assets are forecasted to outperform, so what should investors pay close attention to in the new yea...

Andrew Sheets: A More Promising Start to 2023

09 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

2022 was an unusual year for stocks and bonds, and while the future is hard to predict, the start of 2023 is shaping up to look quite different across...

2023 Chinese Economic Outlook: The Path Towards Reopening

08 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As investors have kept China’s road to reopening top of mind, what comes after reopening and how might the Chinese economy and equity markets be imp...

Global Thematics: What’s Behind India’s Growth Story?

07 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As India enters a new era of growth, investors will want to know what’s driving this growth and how it may create once-in-a-generation opportunities...

Matt Hornbach: Key Currency Trends for 2023

06 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As bond markets appear to have already priced in what central banks will likely do in 2023, how will this path impact inflation and currencies around ...

Mike Wilson: Why Did Treasury Bonds Rally?

05 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The tactical rally in stocks has continued and treasury bonds have experienced their own rally, leaving investors to wonder when this bear market migh...

Ellen Zentner: Is the U.S. Headed for a Soft Landing?

02 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While 2022 saw the fastest pace of policy tightening on record, has the Fed’s hiking cycle properly set the U.S. economy up for a soft landing in 20...

Jonathan Garner: A Bullish Turn on Asia and Emerging Markets

01 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As Asia and Emerging Markets move from a year of major adjustment in 2022 towards a less daunting 2023, investors may want to change their approach fo...

Michael Zezas: What Will China’s Reopening Mean for the U.S.?

30 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As China tries to smooth out its COVID caseload, investors should take note of the impacts those COVID policies have on global economies and key marke...

Stephen Byrd: A New Approach to ESG

29 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Traditional ESG investing strategies highlight companies with top scores across ESG metrics, but new research shows value in focusing instead on those...

2023 European Outlook: Recession & Beyond

28 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As we head into a new year, Europe faces multiple challenges across inflation, energy and financial conditions, meaning investors will want to keep an...

Michelle Weaver: A Very Different Holiday Shopping Season

25 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As we enter the holiday shopping season, the challenges facing consumers and retailers look quite different from 2021, so how will inflation and high ...

Michael Zezas: Mixed News from the U.S./China Meeting

23 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While the recent meeting between U.S. President Biden and China’s President Xi has signaled near term stability for the relationship between the two...

U.S. Outlook: What Are The Key Debates for 2023?

22 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The year ahead outlook is a process of collaboration between strategists and economists from across the firm, so what were analysts debating when thin...

Mike Wilson: When Will Market Volatility Subside?

21 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While the outlook for 2023 may seem relatively unexciting, investors will want to prepare for a volatile path to get there, and focus on some key infl...

Robin Xing: China’s 20th Party Congress Commits to Growth

18 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

At the recent 20th Party Congress in China, policy makers made economic growth a top priority, but what are the roadblocks that may be of concern to g...

U.S. Housing: How Far Will the Market Fall?

17 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With risks to both home sales and home prices continuing to challenge the housing market, investors will want to know what is keeping the U.S. housing...

2023 Global Strategy Outlook: Big Shifts in Dynamics

17 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

In looking ahead to 2023, the big dynamics of this year are poised to shift and investors will want to look for safety amidst the coming uncertainty. ...

2023 Global Macro Outlook: A Different Kind of Year

16 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As we look ahead to 2023, we see a divergence away from the trends of 2022 in key areas across growth, inflation, and central bank policy. Chief Cross...

Mike Wilson: Dealing With the Late Cycle Stage

14 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As we transition away from our fire and ice narrative and into the late cycle stage, investors will want to change up their strategies as we finish on...

Global Tech: What’s Next for EdTech?

11 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Education technology, or EdTech, saw significant adoption during the COVID-19 pandemic, yet opportunity remains in this still young industry if one lo...

Michael Zezas: The Midterm Elections’ Market Impact

10 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

It’s almost two full days after the midterm elections in the U.S. and while we still don’t know the outcome, markets may know enough to forecast i...

Stephan Kessler: What Does the Future Hold for ESG Investing?

09 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Critics of sustainable investing have said that Environmental, Social, and Governance strategies require investors to sacrifice long-term returns, but...

U.S. Media: Will Streaming Overtake Traditional Cable?

08 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Increasingly, consumers are moving from traditional cable and satellite subscriptions to connected TV devices, so where do the advertisers go from her...

Mike Wilson: Is the U.S. Equity Rally Over?

07 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With the Fed continuing to focus on inflation and the upcoming midterm elections suggesting market volatility, investors may be wondering, is the U.S....

Andrew Sheets: A Swing Towards Bonds?

04 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As prices for bonds go down and yields go up, investors may be asking why the price is so low, and what this shift may do to the broader market and as...

Labor: Are People Returning to Work?

03 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As developed markets heal from the pandemic, labor force participation has recovered in some areas faster than others, so how will a return to work im...

Michael Zezas: Preparing for an Uncertain Election

02 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

This coming Tuesday is the midterm election in the U.S., so what should investors watch out for as the results roll in? And which outcomes might influ...

Private Markets: Uncertainty in the Golden Age

01 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Over the last decade private markets have outperformed versus public markets, but given the recent public market volatility, will private markets cont...

Mike Wilson: Has the Fed Gone Far Enough?

31 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Despite companies beginning to report earnings misses and poor stock performance, the S&P 500 is on the rise, leading many to wonder how the Fed w...

U.K. Economy: Volatility's Impact Across Markets

28 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the U.K. grapples with structural, political, and economic issues, how are markets affected across assets, and what stories may look better for inv...

U.K. Economy: All Eyes on the U.K.

27 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the U.K. deals with a bout of market volatility, political transitions, and sticky inflation, how will policy makers and the Bank of England respon...

Seth Carpenter: The Next Steps for the Bank of England

26 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the U.K. attempts stabilize its debt to GDP ratio, as well as curb inflation, the question becomes, to what extent will the Bank of England continu...

Michael Zezas: Policy Pressure from the U.S. to China

25 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The Biden administration recently imposed new trade restrictions on exports to China, but what sectors will be impacted and will we continue to see mo...

Mike Wilson: What is Causing the Market Rally?

24 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As equities enjoy their best week since the summer highs in June, investors seem at the mercy of powerful market trends, so when might these trends ta...

Andrew Sheets: The U.K.’s Struggle to Bring Down Inflation

21 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The U.K.’s economy continues to face a host of challenges, including high inflation and a weak currency, and while these problems are not insurmount...

Graham Secker: Do European Earnings Have Further to Fall?

20 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

While European earnings have been remarkably resilient this year, and consensus estimates for earnings and corporate margins remain high, there may be...

ESG: How will Evolving Regulations Affect Investment?

19 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As the EU puts new regulations on sustainability funds, how will categorization of these funds be impacted, and how might that change investment strat...

Matthew Hornbach: Why U.S. Public Debt Matters

18 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As U.S. Public Debt continues to break records, should investors be concerned by the amount debt has risen? Or are there other, more influential facto...

Mike Wilson: Will Bond Markets Follow the Fed?

17 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Last week's September inflation data brought a subsequent rally in stocks, but can this rally hold while the bond market continues to follow the Fed?-...