Thoughts on the Market
Episodes
Andrew Sheets: Will Markets Stay Resilient?
14 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While investors are feeling optimistic with the strong performance in markets despite some predicted challenges, it may be too soon to tell if these p...
European Equities Outlook: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain
13 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With the European economy losing momentum amidst a rally in growth stocks globally, the time of European equity outperformance may be in the past for ...
Mike Wilson: A Historically Concentrated Market
12 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With AI gaining momentum among investors and the Fed potentially pausing on rate hikes, signs are now pointing towards the end of the bear market rall...
Mid-Year Strategy Outlook: Risk/Reward in Currency and Commodities
09 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While the forecast for global bonds remains strong for the latter half of 2023, other asset classes could see bifurcated results across regions.----- ...
Mid-Year Economic Outlook: A Dichotomy Worth Watching
08 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As we look toward the second half of 2023, the U.S. and Europe are likely to see very slow growth but avoid a recession, while Asia may be poised to b...
Michael Zezas: After the Debt Ceiling, What’s Next?
07 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
On the heels of Congress’s raising the debt ceiling, markets are wondering: What’s next from D.C.? Here are three things we’re watching.----- Tr...
Mid-Year U.S. Consumer Outlook: Spending, Savings and Travel
06 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Consumers in the U.S. are largely returning to pre-COVID spending levels, but new behaviors related to travel, credit availability and inflation have ...
Mike Wilson: Earnings Cycle Still Running Short and Hot
05 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The recovery in 2024 and 2025 looks promising, but the worst of the earnings cycle is likely not over, even for technology stocks.----- Transcript ---...
Special Encore: Erik Woodring: Are PCs on the Rebound?
02 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on May 11th, 2023: While personal computer sales were on the decline before the pandemic, signs are pointing to an upcoming boost.---...
Adam Jonas: The Inconvenient Truths About EV Batteries
01 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With the rapid adoption of electric vehicles, onshoring the critical battery supply chain poses significant challenges and will drive sizable investme...
Michael Zezas: A Step Forward in the Debt-Ceiling Debate
31 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While an agreement on suspending the debt ceiling seems likely to make it through Congress, investors may want to monitor bank deposits for lingering ...
Seth Carpenter: Government Bonds and the Debt Ceiling
30 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As congress debates a debt ceiling deal, investors are proactively purchasing Treasury bills and thus causing a drain on the reserves which could ampl...
Andrew Sheets: Unresolved Questions Create Market Uncertainty
26 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Optimistic investors have pushed stocks and bond yields to the high end of the recent range. But inflation, banks and the debt ceiling status are stil...
Jonathan Garner: Japan’s Equities Continue to Rally
25 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While Japan's equities have continued to rally, a roster of sector leading companies and a weak Yen could signal this bullish story is only just begin...
Michael Zezas: The G7 Meeting and its Impact on Markets
24 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Discussions at the recent Group of Seven Nations meeting point to the continued development of a multipolar world, as supply chains become less global...
U.S Housing: Is there Still Strength in the Housing Market?
23 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As the confidence level of homebuilders building new homes is increasing, will home sales go along with it? Jim Egan and Jay Bacow, Co-Heads of U.S. S...
Mike Wilson: Beware a False Market Breakout
22 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Though the current market narrative has turned bullish, it may not withstand a downturn in earnings.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the M...
Ellen Zentner: Is a Soft Landing for the U.S. Still Possible?
19 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While the U.S. economy looks to be on track for a soft landing in 2023, even the smallest of setbacks could spell trouble for the end of the year.----...
Andrew Sheets: Is Market Volatility on the Decline?
18 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Although markets remain calm for now, incoming developments across the debt ceiling, inflation and monetary policy could quite quickly turn the tide.-...
Vishy Tirupattur: The Outlook for Lending
17 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
According to the Federal Reserve’s latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, small businesses may be the most vulnerable to banks tightening their ...
Mike Wilson: Investors Face Uncertainty in Stock Performance
16 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As investors attempt to find opportunities in an uncertain stock market, earnings disappointments and an ongoing debt ceiling debate loom overhead.---...
Special Encore: Mark Purcell: The Evolution of Cancer Medicines
15 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on April 20th, 2023: "Smart chemotherapy" could change the way that cancer is treated, potentially opening up a $140 billion market o...
Sustainability: Tech Transformation in the Education Market
12 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With technology evolving rapidly in education, investors are taking a closer look at how it will financially impact the global education market. Steph...
Erik Woodring: Are PCs on the Rebound?
11 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While personal computer sales were on the decline before the pandemic, signs are pointing to an upcoming boost. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to ...
Michael Zezas: Debt Ceiling Uncertainty and Financial Markets
10 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With the debt ceiling debate seemingly making little headway, it may be critical for investors to track market developments in the near future.----- T...
Martijn Rats: A Change in the Global Oil Market
09 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As oil data in 2023 shows that second-half tightening is less likely, it may be time to alter the narrative around the expected market for the remaind...
Mike Wilson: Earnings, The Fed and Consumer Spending
08 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With all the volatility surrounding the banking sector, the Fed raising rates and the continued debt ceiling debate, are consumers finally pulling bac...
Andrew Sheets: The Prospect of a Pause in Rate Hikes
05 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The Federal Reserve pausing on hiking interest rates has historically been good for markets. But given current conditions, history may not repeat itse...
Graham Secker: Will European Equity Resilience Continue?
04 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The banking sector appears stronger in Europe than it does in the U.S., but some other European sectors may be at risk of lower profitability.----- Tr...
Michael Zezas: Congress Contends with the Debt Ceiling
03 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Congress is finally set to begin debt ceiling negotiations. What are some possible outcomes and how might the negotiations affect economic growth?----...
Global Economy: Global Challenges Drive Productivity Investment
02 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With the trend toward a multipolar world accelerating, companies are finding that investing in productivity may help protect margins. Ravi Shanker and...
Vishy Tirupattur: Liquidity, Regional Banks and Potential Regulation
01 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As the banking sector is in the news again, investors wonder about an increase in borrowing from the Fed and possible restrictions on the horizon.----...
Ed Stanley: The Risky Path to a Multipolar World
28 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With the world moving towards a more complex and decentralized multipolar structure, how will technology and infrastructure markets fare going forward...
Matthew Hornbach: The Return of Government Bonds
27 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While government bonds have been less than desirable investments for the past two years, the tide may be turning on bond returns.----- Transcript ----...
Michael Zezas: The Great Productivity Race
26 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As multinational companies look towards a future of higher innovation costs and a shrinking labor pool, some corporate sectors may fare better than ot...
Andrew Sheets: The U.S. Dollar and Cross-Asset Portfolios
25 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With many investors predicting the U.S. dollar to continue to weaken, its potential for diversification and high yields may indicate otherwise.----- T...
Sustainability: Decarbonization in the Steel Industry
24 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The drive to reduce carbon emissions could trigger the biggest transformation of the steel industry in decades. Global Head of Sustainability Research...
Andrew Sheets: What is Behind Equity Market Strength?
21 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With equity markets showing strength in the face of slowing growth, investors are left wondering how, or if, they can remain resilient.----- Transcrip...
Mark Purcell: The Evolution of Cancer Medicines
20 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
"Smart chemotherapy" could change the way that cancer is treated, potentially opening up a $140 billion market over the next 15 years.----- Transcript...
Michael Zezas: The Costs of a Multipolar World
19 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Recent interactions between China and Europe signal a continuing reorganization of global commerce around multiple power bases, bringing new and famil...
Vishy Tirupattur: Tumult in the Banking Sector
18 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As the U.S. banking sector faces oncoming regulatory changes, how will the smaller banks react to these new requirements and what will the impact be o...
Mike Wilson: Credit Crunch in the U.S Equity Markets
17 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While some investors may be cheering due to softer than expected inflation data, revenues may begin to disappoint in the face of a credit crunch broug...
Sustainability: The Risks and Benefits of A.I
14 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Artificial Intelligence is clearly a powerful tool that could help a number of sustainability objectives, but are there risks attached to these potent...
Jonathan Garner: Asia Equities Rally Once More
13 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
After a correction that took place in recent months, Asia and emerging markets are once again rallying. But how have these regions sustained their ong...
Chetan Ahya: Global Impacts on Asia's Growth
12 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Given the recent developments in developed markets banking sectors, can Asia’s economic growth continue to outperform?----- Transcript -----Welcome ...
U.S Housing: The Future of Mortgage Markets
11 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Banks and the Fed are winding down activity in the mortgage market amid recent funding challenges, signaling a potential new regime for the asset clas...
Diego Anzoategui: Goods, Services and the Shape of China’s Reopening
10 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
China’s growth is expected to be strong this year. However, it is being driven by services more than goods, meaning the news for other economies may...
Ellen Zentner: The Lagging Effects of Loan Growth
06 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While banking conditions seem to have stabilized for now, tighter credit conditions could still hit U.S. economic growth.----- Transcript -----Welcome...
Michael Zezas: What the ‘X-Date’ Means for Investors
05 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With the deadline to raise the debt ceiling looming closer, will recent banking challenges reduce Congress's willingness to take risks with the econom...
Seth Carpenter: China’s Impact on Global Growth
04 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As the economic growth spread between Asia and the rest of the world widens, China’s reopening is unlikely to spur growth that spills over globally....
Mike Wilson: Not All Bank Reserves Are Created Equal
03 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Recent increases in the Fed’s balance sheet may not have the same impact on money supply, growth and equities as in previous cycles.----- Transcript...
Andrew Sheets: Be Careful What You Wish For
31 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Given recent signs of slowing in a previously strong economy, investors may want to look to history before wishing for weaker growth.----- Transcript ...
Vishy Tirupattur: A Challenging Road for Commercial Real Estate
30 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As regional banks contend with sector volatility, commercial real estate could face challenges in securing new loans and refinancing debt when it matu...
Lauren Schenk: Analyzing the Online Dating Market
29 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Many investors are questioning if the online dating market has become saturated and, in turn, if there is still a growth runway for the industry.-----...
Introducing: What Should I Do With My Money?
29 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
If you're a listener to Thoughts on the Market you may be interested in our new podcast: What Should I Do With My Money? ----------------Managing...
Graham Secker: A Moment of Calm for European Equities
28 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Amid uncertainty in the global banking sector, are European equities a safe haven for investors to weather the storm?----- Transcript -----Welcome to ...
Mike Wilson: Is Banking Stress the Last Straw for the Bear Market?
27 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
After the events of the past few weeks, earnings estimates look increasingly unrealistic and the bear market may finally be ready to appropriately fac...
Global Economy: Central Bank Policy in a Time of Volatility
25 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As markets contend with the recent volatility in the banking sector, global central banks face the challenge of continuing to combat inflation against...
Special Encore: U.S. Pharmaceuticals - The Future of Genetic Medicine
23 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on February 6th, 2023: As new gene therapies are researched, developed and begin clinical trials, what hurdles must genetic medicine ...
Global Thematics: Emerging Markets Face Rising Debt Levels
22 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As investors focus on the risks of debt, can Emerging Markets combat pressure from wide fiscal deficits? Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Rese...
Vishy Tirupattur: The Coming Challenges for Bank Credit
21 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Against the backdrop of volatility in the banking sector, tightening in consumer and commercial credit may have far-reaching impacts for economic grow...
Mike Wilson: The Risk of a Credit Crunch
20 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As markets look to recent bank failures, how are valuations for both stocks and bonds likely to change with this risk to growth?----- Transcript -----...
Sustainability: Energy-Efficient Buildings in Europe
17 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As Europe commits to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, one hurdle will be the energy emissions caused by buildings’ operations. What investment opp...
Michael Zezas: A New Dynamic for U.S. Banking
16 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Investors’ renewed concerns around the banking system should have a variety of impacts on fixed-income investment.----- Transcript -----Welcome to T...
Cryptocurrency: The Issue of Regulation
15 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As cryptocurrency has seen some of its major players topple, policy makers have set their sights on regulation. So what are some of the possible scena...
Martijn Rats: Differing Prospects for Oil & Gas
14 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While oil and gas prices generally move in similar directions, their current situation has deviated from market norms.----- Transcript -----Welcome to...
Mike Wilson: What Bank Wind-Downs Mean for Equities
13 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Banking news and other market pressures are leading some depositors to move funds from traditional banks to higher-yielding securities. How will this ...
U.S. Tech: The Future of Artificial Intelligence
10 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As the advancement of generative AI takes off, how might this inflection point in technology impact markets, companies, and investors alike? Equity An...
Andrew Sheets: A Test for U.S. Growth
09 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While the U.S. has surprised investors with its economic resilience, new labor market and retail sales data could challenge this continued strength.--...
Chetan Ahya: Is Asia’s Growth Bouncing Back?
08 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While there is some skepticism that Asia’s growth will outperform this year, there are a few promising indicators that investors may want to keep in...
Special Encore: Andrew Sheets - The Impact of High Short-Term Yields
07 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on February 24th, 2023: As short-term bond yields continue to rise, what impact does this comparatively high yield have on the broade...
Mike Wilson: A Strong Rebound for Markets
06 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While equity markets continue to rally, the key to the end of the bear market may be in the fundamentals.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on ...
U.S. Economy: The Next American Productivity Renaissance, Pt. 2
03 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The way companies and individuals spend their money has changed in the wake of the COVID pandemic. How might market leadership shift as a result and w...
U.S. Economy: The Next American Productivity Renaissance, Pt. 1
02 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The COVID pandemic changed the way the U.S. engages with work, but how will these shifts impact structural changes to capital investment? Chief Cross-...
Michael Zezas: The Global Impact of the Inflation Reduction Act
01 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
After the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S., other countries may be looking to invest more in their own energy transitions.----- Tran...
Sarah Wolfe: The Fed Versus Economic Resilience
28 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As the U.S. economy remains resilient in the face of continued rate hikes, investors may wonder if the Fed will re-accelerate their policy tightening ...
Mike Wilson: Is the Worst of this Earnings Cycle Still Ahead?
27 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As we enter the final month of the first quarter, recalling the history of bear market trends could help predict whether earnings will fall again.----...
Andrew Sheets: The Impact of High Short-Term Yields
24 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As short-term bond yields continue to rise, what impact does this comparatively high yield have on the broader market?----- Transcript -----Welcome to...
Sustainability: Carbon Offsets and the Issue of Greenwashing
24 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Companies continue their attempts to mitigate their environmental impact. But are some merely buying their way out of the problem using carbon offsets...
U.S. Housing: Is Activity About to Pick Up?
22 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With housing affordability plateauing and inventory picking up, sales could be poised to rise again in the near future.----- Transcript -----Jim Egan:...
Graham Secker: Are European Equities Still Providing Safety?
21 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While the causes of the European equity rally have become more clear over time, so have the caveats that warrant caution over optimism for cyclical st...
Andrew Sheets: Falling Expectations for Global Equities
17 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As our outlook for global equities becomes more cautious, what is influencing the move and what should investors watch as the story develops?----- Tra...
Daniel Blake: The End of an Era for Japan
16 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Next month the leadership of the Bank of Japan will change hands, so what policy shifts might be in store and what does this imply for markets?----- T...
Michael Zezas: Understanding the Impact of Elections
15 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As potential candidates begin to announce their presidential campaigns, is it time to start considering how the 2024 race will drive markets?----- Tra...
U.S. Consumer: What’s Coming for Spending in 2023?
14 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Though U.S. consumer spending was surprisingly robust in 2022, this poses both new and continuing challenges as households draw down their excess savi...
Seth Carpenter: Can Inflation Continue To Come Down?
13 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Inflation was a key topic in a recent meeting at the Brookings Institution. While it has trended downward recently, the details are critical to tracki...
Andrew Sheets: The Complexities of Market Risk
10 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While the risk of economic contraction has lessened in a few regions, is the story of recession and market risk being oversimplified?----- Transcript ...
Vishy Tirupattur: A Change in Fed Policy Expectations
09 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With the latest U.S. employment report showing unexpected resilience in the labor market, what happens now for the Fed and the policy tightening cycle...
Michael Zezas: The State of U.S. Policy
08 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Following last night’s State of the Union Address by President Biden, what are some signals from the speech that investors should consider?----- Tra...
Latin America Economy: The Possibility of Opportunity in 2023
07 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As the outlook for 2023 shows emerging markets looking better positioned than developed markets, how is Latin America faring in this more optimistic s...
U.S. Pharmaceuticals: The Future of Genetic Medicine
06 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As new gene therapies are researched, developed and begin clinical trials, what hurdles must genetic medicine overcome before these therapies are comm...
Andrew Sheets: Where Could Market Strength Persist?
03 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
After a year of falling assets, 2023 has started strong for global markets. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets outlines which markets could su...
Jonathan Garner: Tracking Asia and EM Outperformance
02 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Emerging markets are turning bullish and China’s reopening leaves room for an increase in consumption. What sectors and industries might b...
Michael Zezas: U.S. Policy and Investment Restrictions on China
01 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As reports that the White House may be considering more impactful approaches to Chinese investment restrictions reach investors, how much should they ...
Matt Hornbach: A Narrative of Declining Inflation
31 Jan 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As the data continues to show a weakness in inflation, is it enough to convince investors that the Fed may turn dovish on monetary policy? And how are...
Mike Wilson: Fighting the Fear of Missing Out
30 Jan 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Stocks have seen a much better start to 2023 than anticipated. But can this upswing continue, or is this merely the last bear market rally before the ...
Andrew Sheets: The Choice Between Equities and Cash
27 Jan 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Investing is all about choices, so what should investors know when choosing between holding a financial asset or cash?----- Transcript -----Welcome to...
Graham Secker: An Upturn for European Equities
26 Jan 2023
Contributed by Lukas
European equities have been outperforming U.S. stocks. What’s driving the rally, and will it continue?----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on t...
U.S. Economy: Renegotiating the Debt Ceiling
25 Jan 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Last week, the U.S. Treasury hit the debt ceiling. How will markets respond as Congress decides how to move forward? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andr...
U.S. Retail: A Tale of Two Halves
24 Jan 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As economic pressures continue to drive consumption in the U.S., how will the health of the economy influence the soft lines industry? Head of Retail ...