Thoughts on the Market
Episodes
Vishy Tirupattur: Corporate Credit Risks Remain
01 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While the U.S. economy appears on track to avoid a recession, investors should still consider the implications of an upcoming wave of maturities in co...
Mike Wilson: A New Cyclical Upturn?
31 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With uncertainty around the effects of new central bank policy, investors should be on the lookout for sales growth, cost cutting and sectors that mig...
Andrew Sheets: Unexpected Behavior in Markets
28 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains why it’s increasingly more favorable to be a lender than an asset owner.----- Transcript -----We...
Global Autos: Are China’s Electric Vehicles Reshaping the Market?
27 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With higher quality and lower costs, China’s electric vehicles could lead a shift in the global auto industry.----- Transcript -----Adam Jonas: Welc...
Michael Zezas: Elections and Their Influence on Markets
26 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Investors are questioning what new policy changes the 2024 election might bring, how the changes could affect markets and when they should start payin...
Mike Wilson: Expanding Valuations in Equity Markets
25 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Rapidly declining inflation poses a challenge to revenue growth and earnings. So what should investors look out for to identify the winners from here?...
Erik Woodring: India’s Smartphone Market Poised to Take Off
24 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
India’s smartphone market could triple in size over the next decade, putting it behind only the U.S. and China.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thou...
Japan: A New Era for Japanese Equities
21 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With positive GDP growth and increasing revenues, Japan equities are becoming a preferred market globally. ----- Transcript -----Chetan Ahya: Wel...
Japan: Finding Opportunity Across Sectors
20 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As Japan anticipates shifts in structural policy and GDP growth, these are the industries within the market that are poised to benefit. Chief Asia Eco...
Chetan Ahya: A Bullish Outlook on Japan
19 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The first of our three-part series on the Japanese economy dives into the three key factors that have triggered a recent surge in interest from i...
Sarah Wolfe: Student Loan Restart Draws Nearer
18 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With the moratorium on federal student loans ending soon, discretionary spending is likely to go down and delinquency is likely to rise as consumers f...
Mike Wilson: Disinflation and Equities
17 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While falling inflation is good news for many, equity investors may see volatility in earnings growth as pricing power fades.----- Transcript -----Wel...
Vishy Tirupattur: Are Bonds Primed for a Comeback?
14 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With inflation slowly moving lower, government bonds are looking increasingly more attractive and may be primed for a comeback later this year.----- T...
Ravi Shanker: Decarbonizing Aviation
13 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As airlines scramble to decrease their carbon footprint by 80% before 2050, can sustainable aviation fuel lead the charge?----- Transcript -----Welcom...
Michael Zezas: Looking to the Treasury Market
12 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With a potential government shutdown looming in the fall, investors may want to keep an eye on the U.S. Treasury market to insulate themselves from ri...
Shawn Kim: The Double-Edged Sword of AI Technologies
11 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The market for artificial intelligence technologies could reach $275 billion by 2027, but not all companies will be able to generate revenue. Here’s...
Mike Wilson: All Eyes on Earnings
10 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As earnings season kicks off, market valuations continue to trend high based on major growth expectations. However, investors may want to keep an eye ...
James Lord: The Dollar’s Resiliency
07 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Though the debate around the global strength of the dollar in currency markets continues, the dollar’s current high yield in a world of weak global ...
Terence Flynn: AI Opportunities in Healthcare
06 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Artificial intelligence could help biopharmaceutical companies reduce costs as well as improve their chances of developing successful new drugs.----- ...
Michael Zezas: Investing in New Geographies
05 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With the U.S. possibly imposing tighter trade policies towards China, investors may want to look into diversifying their investments.----- Transcript ...
Special Encore: Asia’s Economy Outlook - Recovery Picking Up Steam
03 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on June, 15th 2023: With more Asian economies on pace to join the recovery path set by China, confidence in economic outperformance v...
Special Encore: Mid-Year U.S. Consumer Outlook - Spending, Savings and Travel
30 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on June, 6th 2023: Consumers in the U.S. are largely returning to pre-COVID spending levels, but new behaviors related to travel, cre...
U.S Housing: The Market Is Not a Monolith
29 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
A surprising increase in the sale of new homes doesn’t mean that overall demand for housing is on the rise. Find out what to expect for the rest of ...
Corporate Credit Outlook: Higher Interest Rates Challenge Lower-Quality Borrowers
28 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
How will corporate credit markets fare as the Fed keeps rates higher for longer? Look for wider spreads, further decompression and muted excess return...
Ed Stanley: Key Lessons as AI Goes Mainstream
27 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With A.I. rapidly reaching the mass market, investors are pondering the risks and upsides to A.I. diffusion. History may provide some answers.----- Tr...
Emerging Markets: Climate Finance and Credit
26 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While many countries are gearing up to combat climate change, financing these large projects may pose a challenge. ----- Transcript -----Simon Wa...
Mid-Year U.S. Dollar Outlook: An Important Driver for Returns
23 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
This year, foreign exchange has been even harder than usual to predict. Even so, the outlook for the U.S. Dollar may prove to be a handy asset moving ...
Mid-Year U.S. Economic Outlook: Will the Fed Continue to Hike?
22 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As the U.S. Economy still angles for a soft landing, the recent Federal Open Markets Committee meeting may have left more questions than answers.-----...
Mid-Year Global Oil Outlook: Neutral or Constructive?
21 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While high oil prices at the end of last year drove down demand and freed up supply, this year many expect the market to tighten again. So why hasn’...
Mid-Year Macro Markets Outlook: Slow Growth and Sticky Inflation
21 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While the U.S is moving towards a soft landing and Japan is seeing nominal growth, the European economy continues to face restrictive policy.----- Tra...
Fixed Income: A Sweet Spot for Munis
16 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With investors anticipating earnings surprises for US stocks, the outlook for municipal bonds is looking brighter.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas:...
Asia’s Economy Outlook: Recovery Picking Up Steam
15 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With more Asian economies on pace to join the recovery path set by China, confidence in economic outperformance versus the rest of the world is rising...
Andrew Sheets: Will Markets Stay Resilient?
14 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While investors are feeling optimistic with the strong performance in markets despite some predicted challenges, it may be too soon to tell if these p...
European Equities Outlook: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain
13 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With the European economy losing momentum amidst a rally in growth stocks globally, the time of European equity outperformance may be in the past for ...
Mike Wilson: A Historically Concentrated Market
12 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With AI gaining momentum among investors and the Fed potentially pausing on rate hikes, signs are now pointing towards the end of the bear market rall...
Mid-Year Strategy Outlook: Risk/Reward in Currency and Commodities
09 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While the forecast for global bonds remains strong for the latter half of 2023, other asset classes could see bifurcated results across regions.----- ...
Mid-Year Economic Outlook: A Dichotomy Worth Watching
08 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As we look toward the second half of 2023, the U.S. and Europe are likely to see very slow growth but avoid a recession, while Asia may be poised to b...
Michael Zezas: After the Debt Ceiling, What’s Next?
07 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
On the heels of Congress’s raising the debt ceiling, markets are wondering: What’s next from D.C.? Here are three things we’re watching.----- Tr...
Mid-Year U.S. Consumer Outlook: Spending, Savings and Travel
06 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Consumers in the U.S. are largely returning to pre-COVID spending levels, but new behaviors related to travel, credit availability and inflation have ...
Mike Wilson: Earnings Cycle Still Running Short and Hot
05 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The recovery in 2024 and 2025 looks promising, but the worst of the earnings cycle is likely not over, even for technology stocks.----- Transcript ---...
Special Encore: Erik Woodring: Are PCs on the Rebound?
02 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on May 11th, 2023: While personal computer sales were on the decline before the pandemic, signs are pointing to an upcoming boost.---...
Adam Jonas: The Inconvenient Truths About EV Batteries
01 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With the rapid adoption of electric vehicles, onshoring the critical battery supply chain poses significant challenges and will drive sizable investme...
Michael Zezas: A Step Forward in the Debt-Ceiling Debate
31 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While an agreement on suspending the debt ceiling seems likely to make it through Congress, investors may want to monitor bank deposits for lingering ...
Seth Carpenter: Government Bonds and the Debt Ceiling
30 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As congress debates a debt ceiling deal, investors are proactively purchasing Treasury bills and thus causing a drain on the reserves which could ampl...
Andrew Sheets: Unresolved Questions Create Market Uncertainty
26 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Optimistic investors have pushed stocks and bond yields to the high end of the recent range. But inflation, banks and the debt ceiling status are stil...
Jonathan Garner: Japan’s Equities Continue to Rally
25 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While Japan's equities have continued to rally, a roster of sector leading companies and a weak Yen could signal this bullish story is only just begin...
Michael Zezas: The G7 Meeting and its Impact on Markets
24 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Discussions at the recent Group of Seven Nations meeting point to the continued development of a multipolar world, as supply chains become less global...
U.S Housing: Is there Still Strength in the Housing Market?
23 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As the confidence level of homebuilders building new homes is increasing, will home sales go along with it? Jim Egan and Jay Bacow, Co-Heads of U.S. S...
Mike Wilson: Beware a False Market Breakout
22 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Though the current market narrative has turned bullish, it may not withstand a downturn in earnings.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the M...
Ellen Zentner: Is a Soft Landing for the U.S. Still Possible?
19 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While the U.S. economy looks to be on track for a soft landing in 2023, even the smallest of setbacks could spell trouble for the end of the year.----...
Andrew Sheets: Is Market Volatility on the Decline?
18 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Although markets remain calm for now, incoming developments across the debt ceiling, inflation and monetary policy could quite quickly turn the tide.-...
Vishy Tirupattur: The Outlook for Lending
17 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
According to the Federal Reserve’s latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, small businesses may be the most vulnerable to banks tightening their ...
Mike Wilson: Investors Face Uncertainty in Stock Performance
16 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As investors attempt to find opportunities in an uncertain stock market, earnings disappointments and an ongoing debt ceiling debate loom overhead.---...
Special Encore: Mark Purcell: The Evolution of Cancer Medicines
15 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on April 20th, 2023: "Smart chemotherapy" could change the way that cancer is treated, potentially opening up a $140 billion market o...
Sustainability: Tech Transformation in the Education Market
12 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With technology evolving rapidly in education, investors are taking a closer look at how it will financially impact the global education market. Steph...
Erik Woodring: Are PCs on the Rebound?
11 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While personal computer sales were on the decline before the pandemic, signs are pointing to an upcoming boost. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to ...
Michael Zezas: Debt Ceiling Uncertainty and Financial Markets
10 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With the debt ceiling debate seemingly making little headway, it may be critical for investors to track market developments in the near future.----- T...
Martijn Rats: A Change in the Global Oil Market
09 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As oil data in 2023 shows that second-half tightening is less likely, it may be time to alter the narrative around the expected market for the remaind...
Mike Wilson: Earnings, The Fed and Consumer Spending
08 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With all the volatility surrounding the banking sector, the Fed raising rates and the continued debt ceiling debate, are consumers finally pulling bac...
Andrew Sheets: The Prospect of a Pause in Rate Hikes
05 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The Federal Reserve pausing on hiking interest rates has historically been good for markets. But given current conditions, history may not repeat itse...
Graham Secker: Will European Equity Resilience Continue?
04 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The banking sector appears stronger in Europe than it does in the U.S., but some other European sectors may be at risk of lower profitability.----- Tr...
Michael Zezas: Congress Contends with the Debt Ceiling
03 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Congress is finally set to begin debt ceiling negotiations. What are some possible outcomes and how might the negotiations affect economic growth?----...
Global Economy: Global Challenges Drive Productivity Investment
02 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With the trend toward a multipolar world accelerating, companies are finding that investing in productivity may help protect margins. Ravi Shanker and...
Vishy Tirupattur: Liquidity, Regional Banks and Potential Regulation
01 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As the banking sector is in the news again, investors wonder about an increase in borrowing from the Fed and possible restrictions on the horizon.----...
Ed Stanley: The Risky Path to a Multipolar World
28 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With the world moving towards a more complex and decentralized multipolar structure, how will technology and infrastructure markets fare going forward...
Matthew Hornbach: The Return of Government Bonds
27 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While government bonds have been less than desirable investments for the past two years, the tide may be turning on bond returns.----- Transcript ----...
Michael Zezas: The Great Productivity Race
26 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As multinational companies look towards a future of higher innovation costs and a shrinking labor pool, some corporate sectors may fare better than ot...
Andrew Sheets: The U.S. Dollar and Cross-Asset Portfolios
25 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With many investors predicting the U.S. dollar to continue to weaken, its potential for diversification and high yields may indicate otherwise.----- T...
Sustainability: Decarbonization in the Steel Industry
24 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The drive to reduce carbon emissions could trigger the biggest transformation of the steel industry in decades. Global Head of Sustainability Research...
Andrew Sheets: What is Behind Equity Market Strength?
21 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With equity markets showing strength in the face of slowing growth, investors are left wondering how, or if, they can remain resilient.----- Transcrip...
Mark Purcell: The Evolution of Cancer Medicines
20 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
"Smart chemotherapy" could change the way that cancer is treated, potentially opening up a $140 billion market over the next 15 years.----- Transcript...
Michael Zezas: The Costs of a Multipolar World
19 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Recent interactions between China and Europe signal a continuing reorganization of global commerce around multiple power bases, bringing new and famil...
Vishy Tirupattur: Tumult in the Banking Sector
18 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As the U.S. banking sector faces oncoming regulatory changes, how will the smaller banks react to these new requirements and what will the impact be o...
Mike Wilson: Credit Crunch in the U.S Equity Markets
17 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While some investors may be cheering due to softer than expected inflation data, revenues may begin to disappoint in the face of a credit crunch broug...
Sustainability: The Risks and Benefits of A.I
14 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Artificial Intelligence is clearly a powerful tool that could help a number of sustainability objectives, but are there risks attached to these potent...
Jonathan Garner: Asia Equities Rally Once More
13 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
After a correction that took place in recent months, Asia and emerging markets are once again rallying. But how have these regions sustained their ong...
Chetan Ahya: Global Impacts on Asia's Growth
12 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Given the recent developments in developed markets banking sectors, can Asia’s economic growth continue to outperform?----- Transcript -----Welcome ...
U.S Housing: The Future of Mortgage Markets
11 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Banks and the Fed are winding down activity in the mortgage market amid recent funding challenges, signaling a potential new regime for the asset clas...
Diego Anzoategui: Goods, Services and the Shape of China’s Reopening
10 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
China’s growth is expected to be strong this year. However, it is being driven by services more than goods, meaning the news for other economies may...
Ellen Zentner: The Lagging Effects of Loan Growth
06 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While banking conditions seem to have stabilized for now, tighter credit conditions could still hit U.S. economic growth.----- Transcript -----Welcome...
Michael Zezas: What the ‘X-Date’ Means for Investors
05 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With the deadline to raise the debt ceiling looming closer, will recent banking challenges reduce Congress's willingness to take risks with the econom...
Seth Carpenter: China’s Impact on Global Growth
04 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As the economic growth spread between Asia and the rest of the world widens, China’s reopening is unlikely to spur growth that spills over globally....
Mike Wilson: Not All Bank Reserves Are Created Equal
03 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Recent increases in the Fed’s balance sheet may not have the same impact on money supply, growth and equities as in previous cycles.----- Transcript...
Andrew Sheets: Be Careful What You Wish For
31 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Given recent signs of slowing in a previously strong economy, investors may want to look to history before wishing for weaker growth.----- Transcript ...
Vishy Tirupattur: A Challenging Road for Commercial Real Estate
30 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As regional banks contend with sector volatility, commercial real estate could face challenges in securing new loans and refinancing debt when it matu...
Lauren Schenk: Analyzing the Online Dating Market
29 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Many investors are questioning if the online dating market has become saturated and, in turn, if there is still a growth runway for the industry.-----...
Introducing: What Should I Do With My Money?
29 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
If you're a listener to Thoughts on the Market you may be interested in our new podcast: What Should I Do With My Money? ----------------Managing...
Graham Secker: A Moment of Calm for European Equities
28 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Amid uncertainty in the global banking sector, are European equities a safe haven for investors to weather the storm?----- Transcript -----Welcome to ...
Mike Wilson: Is Banking Stress the Last Straw for the Bear Market?
27 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
After the events of the past few weeks, earnings estimates look increasingly unrealistic and the bear market may finally be ready to appropriately fac...
Global Economy: Central Bank Policy in a Time of Volatility
25 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As markets contend with the recent volatility in the banking sector, global central banks face the challenge of continuing to combat inflation against...
Special Encore: U.S. Pharmaceuticals - The Future of Genetic Medicine
23 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on February 6th, 2023: As new gene therapies are researched, developed and begin clinical trials, what hurdles must genetic medicine ...
Global Thematics: Emerging Markets Face Rising Debt Levels
22 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As investors focus on the risks of debt, can Emerging Markets combat pressure from wide fiscal deficits? Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Rese...
Vishy Tirupattur: The Coming Challenges for Bank Credit
21 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Against the backdrop of volatility in the banking sector, tightening in consumer and commercial credit may have far-reaching impacts for economic grow...
Mike Wilson: The Risk of a Credit Crunch
20 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As markets look to recent bank failures, how are valuations for both stocks and bonds likely to change with this risk to growth?----- Transcript -----...
Sustainability: Energy-Efficient Buildings in Europe
17 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As Europe commits to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, one hurdle will be the energy emissions caused by buildings’ operations. What investment opp...
Michael Zezas: A New Dynamic for U.S. Banking
16 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Investors’ renewed concerns around the banking system should have a variety of impacts on fixed-income investment.----- Transcript -----Welcome to T...
Cryptocurrency: The Issue of Regulation
15 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As cryptocurrency has seen some of its major players topple, policy makers have set their sights on regulation. So what are some of the possible scena...
Martijn Rats: Differing Prospects for Oil & Gas
14 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While oil and gas prices generally move in similar directions, their current situation has deviated from market norms.----- Transcript -----Welcome to...
Mike Wilson: What Bank Wind-Downs Mean for Equities
13 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Banking news and other market pressures are leading some depositors to move funds from traditional banks to higher-yielding securities. How will this ...
U.S. Tech: The Future of Artificial Intelligence
10 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As the advancement of generative AI takes off, how might this inflection point in technology impact markets, companies, and investors alike? Equity An...