Thoughts on the Market

Andrew Sheets: Upgrades and Downgrades in Corporate Credit

03 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As the majority of the stress from higher rates falls on weaker borrowers, investors should consider moving up in quality.----- Transcript -----Welcom...

US Economy: What Generative AI Means for the Labor Market

02 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Generative AI could transform the nature of work and boost productivity, but companies and governments will need to invest in reskilling.----- Transcr...

Michael Zezas: What the New U.S. Speaker Means for Markets

01 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Investors are questioning whether a new U.S. Speaker in the House of Representatives will push for fresh legislation, and whether a potential governme...

U.S. Housing: The Impact of High Mortgage Rates

31 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With mortgage rates at their highest level in 20 years, housing affordability may deteriorate to levels not seen in decades.----- Transcript -----Jim ...

Mike Wilson: 2023 Stock Market Comes Full Circle

30 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As we head into the end of the year, investors are again worrying about the impact that higher interest rates will have on growth.----- Transcript ---...

Andrew Sheets: Optimism in Corporate Credit

27 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Corporate credit continues to outperform other class assets, due in part to U.S. economic growth in the third quarter.----- Transcript -----Welcome to...

Asia Equities: China’s Risk of a Debt Deflation Loop

26 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With China at risk of falling into a debt deflation loop, lessons from Japan's deflation journey could provide some insight.----- Transcript -----Dani...

Vishy Tirupattur: Implications of the Treasury Market Selloff

25 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The rise in Treasury yields, among other factors, has caused significantly tighter financial conditions. If these conditions slow growth in the fourth...

Matthew Hornbach: The Impact of Policy on Bond Markets

24 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As the U.S. Federal Reserve keeps rates elevated, investors are selling off bonds in anticipation of new issues with higher yields, triggering a histo...

Mike Wilson: Are Earnings Expectations Too High?

23 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As investor sentiment recovers this month in anticipation of a strong year end, it’s important to acknowledge the factors that make this year’s fu...

Ellen Zentner: The Rise of the SHEconomy

20 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Demographic changes are making women in the U.S. more powerful economic agents, driving spending and GDP.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on ...

Global Autos: Automotive’s Smartphone Moment

19 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The automotive industry’s steady transition to “software-defined vehicles” could offer new entrants advantages against established incumbents.--...

Michael Zezas: The Impact of Geopolitical Tension

18 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

In the continuing transition to a multipolar world, geopolitical uncertainty is on the rise and new government policies could rewire global commerce.-...

Global Tech: Generative AI and Asset Management

17 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The asset management and wealth management sectors could see AI boost efficiency in the short term and drive alpha in the medium to long term.----- Tr...

Seth Carpenter: Are Higher Rates Permanent?

16 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The recent rise in long term yields and economic tightening raises the question of how restrictive U.S. financial conditions have become.----- Transcr...

Vishy Tirupattur: Treasury Yields Move Higher

13 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

On the heels of a midsummer spike, long-end treasury yields have picked up further momentum, which has created complex implications for the ...

Chetan Ahya: What Would Trigger Rate Hikes in Asia?

12 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Although inflation is largely under control in Asian economies, central banks could be pushed to respond if high U.S. yields meet rising oil prices.--...

Michael Zezas: Signals from the Speaker of the House Vacancy

11 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With Congress still without a Speaker of the House, investors should keep an eye on the impact that another potential government shutdown would have o...

Keith Weiss: How Generative AI Could Affect Jobs

10 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As companies integrate generative AI into enterprise software, a wide variety of jobs that depend on requesting or distributing data could be automate...

Michelle Weaver: The Priorities of the U.S. Consumer

09 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

While U.S. consumer sentiment is on the decline, there are some categories that have remained stable as purse strings tighten.----- Transcript -----We...

U.S Equities: Credit Continues to Outperform

06 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As bond yields continue to rise, credit has been more of a passenger than the driver of recent market volatility.-----Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: W...

Todd Castagno: Rising Growth in Convertibles Bonds

05 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Here’s why convertible bonds, an often overlooked asset class, are becoming more attractive as an alternative to common stock.----- Transcript -----...

Vishy Tirupattur: Corporate Credit Divided by Quality

04 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Fundamentals for investment-grade credit remain resilient and steady, while below-grade credit continues to deteriorate. ----- Transcript -----We...

U.S. Consumer: Opportunity in Online Grocery

03 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With online grocery shopping growing in popularity, artificial intelligence can improve the customer experience while increasing efficiency.----- Tran...

Mike Wilson: Has the U.S. Government Hit a Fiscal Wall?

02 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Although Congress agreed on a short-term deal to avoid a shutdown, the increase in the deficit and lack of fiscal discipline may concern investors in ...

U.S. Economy: What AI Means for People Doing Multiple Jobs

29 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The number of U.S. workers with multiple income streams is increasing steadily, with earnings of $200 billion today poised to double by 2030. Generati...

Jonathan Garner: Volatility in Asia and Emerging Markets

28 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With volatility in Asia and emerging markets causing both upswings and downswings, certain markets will be critical as uncertainty continues.----- Tra...

U.S. Policy: The Economic Impact of a Government Shutdown

27 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

If government funding expires next week, the shutdown combined with other economic issues could make for a weak fourth quarter. Global Head of Fi...

Andrew Sheets: GDP, Inflation and a Possible Government Shutdown

26 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Corporate credit is likely to continue outperforming, even if downward revisions to GDP, sticky inflation data and a potential government shutdown cou...

Mike Wilson: A Shift in Stock Personalities

25 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With the economy late in its current cycle, early-cycle performers such as consumer and housing stocks are underperforming while energy and industrial...

Andrew Sheets: The Rise of Corporate Bond Yields

22 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

September historically has been a big month for corporate bond issuance, but borrowing looks less attractive to companies due to the large rise in yie...

US Economy: Stronger Growth in the U.S. Economy

21 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Even with the possibility of a fourth-quarter slowdown in consumer spending, positive data across the board suggests the U.S. economy is sti...

Michael Zezas: China’s Evolving Economy

20 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

A potential debt-deflation cycle in China could spell opportunity for U.S. Treasuries and Asia corporate bonds outside of China.----- Transcript -----...

Kickstarting the U.S. Mining Industry

19 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

A number of U.S. industries rely heavily on critical minerals that must be imported from other countries. Policymakers and business leaders are callin...

Seth Carpenter: The ECB, The Fed and Oil Prices

18 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

While the ECB followed headline inflation with raised policy rates yet again last week, the Fed meeting this week may be more focused on core inflatio...

Thematic Research: How AI Can Transform Travel Booking

15 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With more companies using artificial intelligence to enhance their travel websites, AI could become the industry norm.----- Transcript -----Ed Stanley...

Martijn Rats: Why Energy Sector is Attractive Once Again

14 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With the global demand of oil reaching a new high, the spillover in performance is changing the fortune for energy equities and oil markets.----- Tran...

U.S Housing: The Impact of Raising Rates

13 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Even though mortgage rates are up 100 points since the beginning of 2023, home prices are likely to stay flat or increase due to tight housing supply....

Vishy Tirupattur: U.S. and China on Divergent Paths

12 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Economic growth data from the summer has bolstered belief in a possible soft landing in the U.S., while China has experienced a faster-than-expected d...

Global Economy: Fall Outlook for Rates and the Economy

11 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Heading into the end of the year, questions remain around Treasury yields and the neutral interest rate.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome ...

Andrew Sheets: A Murky Forecast for Equities and High-Yield Bonds

08 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Both equities and high-yield bonds could benefit from an end to ratings hikes, but may still face risks from company earnings revisions, a potential U...

Stephen Byrd: Watch Out for El Niño

07 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

A strong El Niño event in the coming months could have negative effects for food inflation, commodities markets and climate change.----- Transcript -...

Michael Zezas: Congressional Return Raises Questions for Markets

06 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Investors anticipate new legislation on tech regulation, AI and defense, amid speculation about a potential government shutdown.-----Transcription ---...

Mike Wilson: Are Stocks Beginning to Question Economic Resiliency?

05 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

While valuations may be on the rise, fears around the resiliency of the economy could return and leave unguarded investors on uneven footing.----- Tra...

U.S. Consumer: How U.S. Consumers Are Shopping to Go Back to School

01 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Although back-to-school spending appears to be trending higher than in 2022, there are signs that U.S. consumers could feel pinched before the holiday...

Daniel Blake: Japan’s Surge in GDP Growth

31 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

While recent news of a potential debt deflation loop in China’s equity market is causing concern for investors, Japan’s equity market resilience m...

Energy: Are Europe’s Clean Energy Goals Realistic?

30 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Although Europe has been the global leader when it comes to greening its economy, recent challenges may be a cause for concern.----- Transcript -----R...

Seth Carpenter: The Global Implications of China’s Deflation

29 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

If China economic woes become a true debt deflation cycle, it could export some of that disinflation to the global economy.----- Transcript -----Welco...

Vishy Tirupattur: Banking Regulations Could Reduce Available Credit

28 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Proposed regulations for smaller banks show that turmoil in the banking sector may still have an impact on the broader economy.----- Transcript -----W...

Andrew Sheets: Is the Fed Done Raising Rates?

25 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As the Fed meets this weekend for their annual summit at Jackson Hole, investors are most focused on whether rate hikes will continue and the state of...

Special: Access & Opportunity Podcast

24 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Inspiring change through informed and inclusive innovation. On Access & Opportunity, host Carla Harris, Senior Client Advisor at Morgan Stanley, e...

Michael Zezas: What to Expect from Presidential Debates

23 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As debate season begins among Republican presidential candidates, can investors hope to glean market insights for 2025 and beyond?----- Transcript ---...

Special Encore: Vishy Tirupattur: Corporate Credit Risks Remain

22 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on August, 1st 2023: While the U.S. economy appears on track to avoid a recession, investors should still consider the implications o...

Special Encore: Global Autos: Are China’s Electric Vehicles Reshaping the Market?

21 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on July, 27th 2023: With higher quality and lower costs, China’s electric vehicles could lead a shift in the global auto industry.-...

Andrew Sheets: The Positive Side of Higher Rates

18 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Bond yields have seen a surprising increase as a result of real interest rates, which could mean both good and bad news for other asset types.----- Tr...

Chetan Ahya: Can China Avoid a Lost Decade?

17 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Although China’s economy faces challenges in terms of debt, demographics and deflation, the right policy approach could ward off a debt deflation lo...

Michael Zezas: The Risks of a U.S. Government Shutdown

16 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Although Congress has avoided previous shutdowns with last-minute resolutions, investors shouldn’t get complacent in assuming the same outcome again...

Jonathan Garner: A Bullish Turn for India

15 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With the rupee appreciating, manufacturing and services in a consistent rally and demographic trends on an upswing, India may be better poised for a l...

Mike Wilson: Fiscal Policy Continues to Drive U.S. Economic and Market Performance

14 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

While the Fed fights generationally high inflation, the U.S. economy continues to grow, supported by high levels of spending. This has affected both t...

U.S. Equities: Valuations Still Matter

11 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

While the Fed navigates a soft landing for the U.S. economy and stock valuations remain high, how can investors navigate the risks and rewards of a su...

Pharmaceuticals: The Investment Opportunity in Obesity Treatment

10 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

A recent landmark study around weight-loss medicine could spark near-term growth opportunities in pharmaceuticals.----- Transcript -----Mark Purcell: ...

Michael Zezas: The Impact of New Investment Limitations in China

09 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Forthcoming U.S. restrictions on some tech investments in China may present new opportunities as companies adapt to these constraints.----- Transcript...

Social Investing: The Future of Sustainability

08 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The profound demographic changes underway in countries around the world will require innovative, socially focused solutions in sectors including healt...

U.S Housing: U.S Housing Market Remains Tight for Buyers

07 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The residential housing market continues to face limited inventory, low affordability and high mortgage rates, but the worst may have passed.----- Tra...

Andrew Sheets: Why Are Rates Up and Stocks Down?

04 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Moves by the Bank of Japan, the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and new economic data may all have contributed to a spike in bond yields and fall ...

Ron Kamdem: ‘Bifurcation’ in Global Office Real Estate Markets

03 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

While rate hikes and work from home are depressing office real estate in the U.S., the market is vast globally, and there are clear differences across...

Michael Zezas: How Will the U.S. Credit Downgrade Affect Markets?

03 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The recent downgrade to Fitch's U.S. credit rating should have less of an impact on demand for bonds than the ongoing trajectory of inflation.---...

Vishy Tirupattur: Corporate Credit Risks Remain

01 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

While the U.S. economy appears on track to avoid a recession, investors should still consider the implications of an upcoming wave of maturities in co...

Mike Wilson: A New Cyclical Upturn?

31 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With uncertainty around the effects of new central bank policy, investors should be on the lookout for sales growth, cost cutting and sectors that mig...

Andrew Sheets: Unexpected Behavior in Markets

28 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains why it’s increasingly more favorable to be a lender than an asset owner.----- Transcript -----We...

Global Autos: Are China’s Electric Vehicles Reshaping the Market?

27 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With higher quality and lower costs, China’s electric vehicles could lead a shift in the global auto industry.----- Transcript -----Adam Jonas: Welc...

Michael Zezas: Elections and Their Influence on Markets

26 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Investors are questioning what new policy changes the 2024 election might bring, how the changes could affect markets and when they should start payin...

Mike Wilson: Expanding Valuations in Equity Markets

25 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Rapidly declining inflation poses a challenge to revenue growth and earnings. So what should investors look out for to identify the winners from here?...

Erik Woodring: India’s Smartphone Market Poised to Take Off

24 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

India’s smartphone market could triple in size over the next decade, putting it behind only the U.S. and China.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thou...

Japan: A New Era for Japanese Equities

21 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With positive GDP growth and increasing revenues, Japan equities are becoming a preferred market globally. ----- Transcript -----Chetan Ahya: Wel...

Japan: Finding Opportunity Across Sectors

20 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As Japan anticipates shifts in structural policy and GDP growth, these are the industries within the market that are poised to benefit. Chief Asia Eco...

Chetan Ahya: A Bullish Outlook on Japan

19 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The first of our three-part series on the Japanese economy dives into the three key factors that have triggered a recent surge in interest from i...

Sarah Wolfe: Student Loan Restart Draws Nearer

18 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With the moratorium on federal student loans ending soon, discretionary spending is likely to go down and delinquency is likely to rise as consumers f...

Mike Wilson: Disinflation and Equities

17 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

While falling inflation is good news for many, equity investors may see volatility in earnings growth as pricing power fades.----- Transcript -----Wel...

Vishy Tirupattur: Are Bonds Primed for a Comeback?

14 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With inflation slowly moving lower, government bonds are looking increasingly more attractive and may be primed for a comeback later this year.----- T...

Ravi Shanker: Decarbonizing Aviation

13 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As airlines scramble to decrease their carbon footprint by 80% before 2050, can sustainable aviation fuel lead the charge?----- Transcript -----Welcom...

Michael Zezas: Looking to the Treasury Market

12 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With a potential government shutdown looming in the fall, investors may want to keep an eye on the U.S. Treasury market to insulate themselves from ri...

Shawn Kim: The Double-Edged Sword of AI Technologies

11 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The market for artificial intelligence technologies could reach $275 billion by 2027, but not all companies will be able to generate revenue. Here’s...

Mike Wilson: All Eyes on Earnings

10 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As earnings season kicks off, market valuations continue to trend high based on major growth expectations. However, investors may want to keep an eye ...

James Lord: The Dollar’s Resiliency

07 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Though the debate around the global strength of the dollar in currency markets continues, the dollar’s current high yield in a world of weak global ...

Terence Flynn: AI Opportunities in Healthcare

06 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Artificial intelligence could help biopharmaceutical companies reduce costs as well as improve their chances of developing successful new drugs.----- ...

Michael Zezas: Investing in New Geographies

05 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With the U.S. possibly imposing tighter trade policies towards China, investors may want to look into diversifying their investments.----- Transcript ...

Special Encore: Asia’s Economy Outlook - Recovery Picking Up Steam

03 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on June, 15th 2023: With more Asian economies on pace to join the recovery path set by China, confidence in economic outperformance v...

Special Encore: Mid-Year U.S. Consumer Outlook - Spending, Savings and Travel

30 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Original Release on June, 6th 2023: Consumers in the U.S. are largely returning to pre-COVID spending levels, but new behaviors related to travel, cre...

U.S Housing: The Market Is Not a Monolith

29 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

A surprising increase in the sale of new homes doesn’t mean that overall demand for housing is on the rise. Find out what to expect for the rest of ...

Corporate Credit Outlook: Higher Interest Rates Challenge Lower-Quality Borrowers

28 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

How will corporate credit markets fare as the Fed keeps rates higher for longer? Look for wider spreads, further decompression and muted excess return...

Ed Stanley: Key Lessons as AI Goes Mainstream

27 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With A.I. rapidly reaching the mass market, investors are pondering the risks and upsides to A.I. diffusion. History may provide some answers.----- Tr...

Emerging Markets: Climate Finance and Credit

26 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

While many countries are gearing up to combat climate change, financing these large projects may pose a challenge. ----- Transcript -----Simon Wa...

Mid-Year U.S. Dollar Outlook: An Important Driver for Returns

23 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

This year, foreign exchange has been even harder than usual to predict. Even so, the outlook for the U.S. Dollar may prove to be a handy asset moving ...

Mid-Year U.S. Economic Outlook: Will the Fed Continue to Hike?

22 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

As the U.S. Economy still angles for a soft landing, the recent Federal Open Markets Committee meeting may have left more questions than answers.-----...

Mid-Year Global Oil Outlook: Neutral or Constructive?

21 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

While high oil prices at the end of last year drove down demand and freed up supply, this year many expect the market to tighten again. So why hasn’...

Mid-Year Macro Markets Outlook: Slow Growth and Sticky Inflation

21 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

While the U.S is moving towards a soft landing and Japan is seeing nominal growth, the European economy continues to face restrictive policy.----- Tra...

Fixed Income: A Sweet Spot for Munis

16 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With investors anticipating earnings surprises for US stocks, the outlook for municipal bonds is looking brighter.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas:...

Asia’s Economy Outlook: Recovery Picking Up Steam

15 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With more Asian economies on pace to join the recovery path set by China, confidence in economic outperformance versus the rest of the world is rising...

Andrew Sheets: Will Markets Stay Resilient?

14 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

While investors are feeling optimistic with the strong performance in markets despite some predicted challenges, it may be too soon to tell if these p...