Thoughts on the Market
Episodes
Will Falling Rates Mean Lower Home Prices?
21 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As mortgage rates come down from 8% closer to 6.5%, the 2024 housing market will see changes in inventory, home prices and sales.----- Transcript ----...
Michael Zezas: Why Geopolitics May Matter More in 2024
20 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While the U.S. debt ceiling challenge and the conflict in the Middle East left markets largely undisturbed this year, 2024 could tell a different stor...
Will the Fed’s Pivot Favor Bonds Over Equities?
19 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Hear our perspective on market action following the Fed's change in direction, and what it means for our 2024 outlook. ----- Transcript -----Vish...
Mike Wilson: Does the U.S. Equity Rally Still Have Steam?
18 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Hear how the Fed’s announcement of upcoming rate cuts could affect equity markets—particularly small-cap stocks.----- Transcript -----Welcome to T...
Economic Roundtable: What’s in Store for ’24?
16 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Join our first quarterly roundtable where Morgan Stanley’s chief economists discuss the outlook for the U.S., Europe, China, and Japan.----- Transcr...
Sustainability: Mixed Signals on Decarbonization After COP28
14 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The U.N. Climate Change Conference, COP28, delivered positive news around technology, clean energy and methane emissions. But investors should be wary...
Michael Zezas: The U.S. Election, Clean Energy and Healthcare
13 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Investors are concerned about the potential impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election in a number of sectors. Here’s what to watch.----- Tra...
2024 China Outlook: Can Growth Rebound?
12 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
China continues to face the triple challenge of debt, deflation and demographics. But are investors missing an opportunity in China equities? ---...
Mike Wilson: Could Bond Market Consolidation Weigh on U.S. Equities?
11 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Here’s how upcoming inflation data and this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting could affect the U.S. bond and equity markets. -----...
David Adams: A Contrarian Call on the U.S. Dollar
08 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Will the U.S. dollar weaken further as the economy slows? What will its value be compared to the Euro by spring 2024? Our analyst tackles those key cu...
2024 Asia Equities Outlook: India vs. China
07 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Will India equities continue to outperform China equities in 2024? The two key factors investors should track.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thought...
An Early Guide to the 2024 U.S. Elections
06 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Although much will change before the elections, investors should watch for potential impacts on issues such as AI regulation, energy permitting, ...
2024 Asia Economics Outlook: Still Divergent?
05 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Asia’s economic recovery could continue to be out of step with the rest of the world. Hear which countries are positioned for growth and which might...
Mike Wilson: Are Markets Following the Right Playbook?
04 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
U.S. equities markets appear to be betting on an outdated playbook that worked when inflation was benign. But analysis of earnings and macro data...
Andrew Sheets: November’s Early Holiday Gift to Investors
01 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The market rally of the last few weeks is based on strong economic data, suggesting that the U.S. and Europe remain on track for a “soft landing.”...
Pamela Kaufman: Anti-Obesity Meds Could Bite Into Food Sales
30 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The growing popularity of medicines that curb appetite is having an impact on consumption of less-healthy foods. Here’s what that could mean for pac...
Ravi Shanker: A New Golden Age of Travel Ahead?
29 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With a strong holiday season expected, and a rise in U.S. passport issuance, there’s good reason to believe the travel industry will see durable gro...
How Education Companies Can Benefit from AI
28 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Investors in the education sector have focused on threats from generative AI, but may be missing the potential for greater efficiency and new opportun...
Vishy Tirupattur: Debating the Outlook
27 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Morgan Stanley published its 2024 macroeconomic and investment outlooks last week after spirited debates among our economists and strategists. Three t...
Special Encore: Matt Cost: How AI Could Disrupt Gaming
24 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on November, 7th 2023: AI could help video game companies boost engagement and consumer spending, but could also introduce competitio...
Special Encore: US Economy: What Generative AI Means for the Labor Market
22 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on November, 2nd 2023: Generative AI could transform the nature of work and boost productivity, but companies and governments will ne...
U.S. Consumer: Mixed Holiday Spending Expectations
21 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Third-quarter consumer spending was strong, but a growing gap between middle- and higher-income consumers may affect the holiday shopping season.-----...
Ed Stanley: The Cutting Edge of AI
20 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The next phase in artificial intelligence could be “edge AI,” which lowers costs and improves security by embedding AI capabilities directly in sm...
Ellen Zentner: 2024 U.S. Economic Outlook
17 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Our Chief U.S. Economist previews the key economic themes of 2024, including potential rate cuts, housing affordability, job growth and more. ---...
Serena Tang: The Return of the 60/40 Portfolio
16 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
After poor performance in 2022, a traditional 60/40 equity/bond portfolio could see an annual return around 8% over the next decade.----- Transcript -...
Special: What Should I Do With My Money?
15 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
If you're a listener to Thoughts on the Market you may be interested in another of our podcasts: What Should I Do With My Money? ----------------...
Macro Economy: The 2024 Outlook Part 2
15 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Our roundtable discussion on the future of the global economy and markets continues, as our analysts preview what is ahead for government bonds, curre...
Macro Economy: The 2024 Outlook
14 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As global growth takes a hit and inflation begins to cool, how does the road ahead look for central banks and investors? Chief Fixed Income Strategist...
Andrew Sheets: Will the Bond Market Suffer from Tax-Loss Selling?
10 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Investors whose corporate bond holdings have lost value in 2023 could sell before the end of the year, locking in their losses to offset gains elsewhe...
Ed Stanley: Weight Loss Drugs and the Global Economy
09 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Despite some falloff in consumer interest, anti-obesity drugs are still likely to have profound implications at both the macro and sectoral level.----...
Michael Zezas: Are the Worst Bond Returns Behind Us?
08 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The recent treasury rally signals that perhaps the U.S. fiscal trajectory isn't as challenging as bond investors had feared.----- Transcript -----Welc...
Matt Cost: How AI Could Disrupt Gaming
07 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
AI could help video game companies boost engagement and consumer spending, but could also introduce competition by making it easier for new companies ...
Mike Wilson: Will the Equity Market Rally Last?
06 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Last week’s uptick in stock prices, driven by a pullback in bond yields and the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady, is likely to fizzle over...
Andrew Sheets: Upgrades and Downgrades in Corporate Credit
03 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As the majority of the stress from higher rates falls on weaker borrowers, investors should consider moving up in quality.----- Transcript -----Welcom...
US Economy: What Generative AI Means for the Labor Market
02 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Generative AI could transform the nature of work and boost productivity, but companies and governments will need to invest in reskilling.----- Transcr...
Michael Zezas: What the New U.S. Speaker Means for Markets
01 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Investors are questioning whether a new U.S. Speaker in the House of Representatives will push for fresh legislation, and whether a potential governme...
U.S. Housing: The Impact of High Mortgage Rates
31 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With mortgage rates at their highest level in 20 years, housing affordability may deteriorate to levels not seen in decades.----- Transcript -----Jim ...
Mike Wilson: 2023 Stock Market Comes Full Circle
30 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As we head into the end of the year, investors are again worrying about the impact that higher interest rates will have on growth.----- Transcript ---...
Andrew Sheets: Optimism in Corporate Credit
27 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Corporate credit continues to outperform other class assets, due in part to U.S. economic growth in the third quarter.----- Transcript -----Welcome to...
Asia Equities: China’s Risk of a Debt Deflation Loop
26 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With China at risk of falling into a debt deflation loop, lessons from Japan's deflation journey could provide some insight.----- Transcript -----Dani...
Vishy Tirupattur: Implications of the Treasury Market Selloff
25 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The rise in Treasury yields, among other factors, has caused significantly tighter financial conditions. If these conditions slow growth in the fourth...
Matthew Hornbach: The Impact of Policy on Bond Markets
24 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As the U.S. Federal Reserve keeps rates elevated, investors are selling off bonds in anticipation of new issues with higher yields, triggering a histo...
Mike Wilson: Are Earnings Expectations Too High?
23 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As investor sentiment recovers this month in anticipation of a strong year end, it’s important to acknowledge the factors that make this year’s fu...
Ellen Zentner: The Rise of the SHEconomy
20 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Demographic changes are making women in the U.S. more powerful economic agents, driving spending and GDP.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on ...
Global Autos: Automotive’s Smartphone Moment
19 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The automotive industry’s steady transition to “software-defined vehicles” could offer new entrants advantages against established incumbents.--...
Michael Zezas: The Impact of Geopolitical Tension
18 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
In the continuing transition to a multipolar world, geopolitical uncertainty is on the rise and new government policies could rewire global commerce.-...
Global Tech: Generative AI and Asset Management
17 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The asset management and wealth management sectors could see AI boost efficiency in the short term and drive alpha in the medium to long term.----- Tr...
Seth Carpenter: Are Higher Rates Permanent?
16 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The recent rise in long term yields and economic tightening raises the question of how restrictive U.S. financial conditions have become.----- Transcr...
Vishy Tirupattur: Treasury Yields Move Higher
13 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
On the heels of a midsummer spike, long-end treasury yields have picked up further momentum, which has created complex implications for the ...
Chetan Ahya: What Would Trigger Rate Hikes in Asia?
12 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Although inflation is largely under control in Asian economies, central banks could be pushed to respond if high U.S. yields meet rising oil prices.--...
Michael Zezas: Signals from the Speaker of the House Vacancy
11 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With Congress still without a Speaker of the House, investors should keep an eye on the impact that another potential government shutdown would have o...
Keith Weiss: How Generative AI Could Affect Jobs
10 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As companies integrate generative AI into enterprise software, a wide variety of jobs that depend on requesting or distributing data could be automate...
Michelle Weaver: The Priorities of the U.S. Consumer
09 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While U.S. consumer sentiment is on the decline, there are some categories that have remained stable as purse strings tighten.----- Transcript -----We...
U.S Equities: Credit Continues to Outperform
06 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As bond yields continue to rise, credit has been more of a passenger than the driver of recent market volatility.-----Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: W...
Todd Castagno: Rising Growth in Convertibles Bonds
05 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Here’s why convertible bonds, an often overlooked asset class, are becoming more attractive as an alternative to common stock.----- Transcript -----...
Vishy Tirupattur: Corporate Credit Divided by Quality
04 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Fundamentals for investment-grade credit remain resilient and steady, while below-grade credit continues to deteriorate. ----- Transcript -----We...
U.S. Consumer: Opportunity in Online Grocery
03 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With online grocery shopping growing in popularity, artificial intelligence can improve the customer experience while increasing efficiency.----- Tran...
Mike Wilson: Has the U.S. Government Hit a Fiscal Wall?
02 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Although Congress agreed on a short-term deal to avoid a shutdown, the increase in the deficit and lack of fiscal discipline may concern investors in ...
U.S. Economy: What AI Means for People Doing Multiple Jobs
29 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The number of U.S. workers with multiple income streams is increasing steadily, with earnings of $200 billion today poised to double by 2030. Generati...
Jonathan Garner: Volatility in Asia and Emerging Markets
28 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With volatility in Asia and emerging markets causing both upswings and downswings, certain markets will be critical as uncertainty continues.----- Tra...
U.S. Policy: The Economic Impact of a Government Shutdown
27 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
If government funding expires next week, the shutdown combined with other economic issues could make for a weak fourth quarter. Global Head of Fi...
Andrew Sheets: GDP, Inflation and a Possible Government Shutdown
26 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Corporate credit is likely to continue outperforming, even if downward revisions to GDP, sticky inflation data and a potential government shutdown cou...
Mike Wilson: A Shift in Stock Personalities
25 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With the economy late in its current cycle, early-cycle performers such as consumer and housing stocks are underperforming while energy and industrial...
Andrew Sheets: The Rise of Corporate Bond Yields
22 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
September historically has been a big month for corporate bond issuance, but borrowing looks less attractive to companies due to the large rise in yie...
US Economy: Stronger Growth in the U.S. Economy
21 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Even with the possibility of a fourth-quarter slowdown in consumer spending, positive data across the board suggests the U.S. economy is sti...
Michael Zezas: China’s Evolving Economy
20 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
A potential debt-deflation cycle in China could spell opportunity for U.S. Treasuries and Asia corporate bonds outside of China.----- Transcript -----...
Kickstarting the U.S. Mining Industry
19 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
A number of U.S. industries rely heavily on critical minerals that must be imported from other countries. Policymakers and business leaders are callin...
Seth Carpenter: The ECB, The Fed and Oil Prices
18 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While the ECB followed headline inflation with raised policy rates yet again last week, the Fed meeting this week may be more focused on core inflatio...
Thematic Research: How AI Can Transform Travel Booking
15 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With more companies using artificial intelligence to enhance their travel websites, AI could become the industry norm.----- Transcript -----Ed Stanley...
Martijn Rats: Why Energy Sector is Attractive Once Again
14 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With the global demand of oil reaching a new high, the spillover in performance is changing the fortune for energy equities and oil markets.----- Tran...
U.S Housing: The Impact of Raising Rates
13 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Even though mortgage rates are up 100 points since the beginning of 2023, home prices are likely to stay flat or increase due to tight housing supply....
Vishy Tirupattur: U.S. and China on Divergent Paths
12 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Economic growth data from the summer has bolstered belief in a possible soft landing in the U.S., while China has experienced a faster-than-expected d...
Global Economy: Fall Outlook for Rates and the Economy
11 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Heading into the end of the year, questions remain around Treasury yields and the neutral interest rate.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome ...
Andrew Sheets: A Murky Forecast for Equities and High-Yield Bonds
08 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Both equities and high-yield bonds could benefit from an end to ratings hikes, but may still face risks from company earnings revisions, a potential U...
Stephen Byrd: Watch Out for El Niño
07 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
A strong El Niño event in the coming months could have negative effects for food inflation, commodities markets and climate change.----- Transcript -...
Michael Zezas: Congressional Return Raises Questions for Markets
06 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Investors anticipate new legislation on tech regulation, AI and defense, amid speculation about a potential government shutdown.-----Transcription ---...
Mike Wilson: Are Stocks Beginning to Question Economic Resiliency?
05 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While valuations may be on the rise, fears around the resiliency of the economy could return and leave unguarded investors on uneven footing.----- Tra...
U.S. Consumer: How U.S. Consumers Are Shopping to Go Back to School
01 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Although back-to-school spending appears to be trending higher than in 2022, there are signs that U.S. consumers could feel pinched before the holiday...
Daniel Blake: Japan’s Surge in GDP Growth
31 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While recent news of a potential debt deflation loop in China’s equity market is causing concern for investors, Japan’s equity market resilience m...
Energy: Are Europe’s Clean Energy Goals Realistic?
30 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Although Europe has been the global leader when it comes to greening its economy, recent challenges may be a cause for concern.----- Transcript -----R...
Seth Carpenter: The Global Implications of China’s Deflation
29 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
If China economic woes become a true debt deflation cycle, it could export some of that disinflation to the global economy.----- Transcript -----Welco...
Vishy Tirupattur: Banking Regulations Could Reduce Available Credit
28 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Proposed regulations for smaller banks show that turmoil in the banking sector may still have an impact on the broader economy.----- Transcript -----W...
Andrew Sheets: Is the Fed Done Raising Rates?
25 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As the Fed meets this weekend for their annual summit at Jackson Hole, investors are most focused on whether rate hikes will continue and the state of...
Special: Access & Opportunity Podcast
24 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Inspiring change through informed and inclusive innovation. On Access & Opportunity, host Carla Harris, Senior Client Advisor at Morgan Stanley, e...
Michael Zezas: What to Expect from Presidential Debates
23 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As debate season begins among Republican presidential candidates, can investors hope to glean market insights for 2025 and beyond?----- Transcript ---...
Special Encore: Vishy Tirupattur: Corporate Credit Risks Remain
22 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on August, 1st 2023: While the U.S. economy appears on track to avoid a recession, investors should still consider the implications o...
Special Encore: Global Autos: Are China’s Electric Vehicles Reshaping the Market?
21 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on July, 27th 2023: With higher quality and lower costs, China’s electric vehicles could lead a shift in the global auto industry.-...
Andrew Sheets: The Positive Side of Higher Rates
18 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Bond yields have seen a surprising increase as a result of real interest rates, which could mean both good and bad news for other asset types.----- Tr...
Chetan Ahya: Can China Avoid a Lost Decade?
17 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Although China’s economy faces challenges in terms of debt, demographics and deflation, the right policy approach could ward off a debt deflation lo...
Michael Zezas: The Risks of a U.S. Government Shutdown
16 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Although Congress has avoided previous shutdowns with last-minute resolutions, investors shouldn’t get complacent in assuming the same outcome again...
Jonathan Garner: A Bullish Turn for India
15 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With the rupee appreciating, manufacturing and services in a consistent rally and demographic trends on an upswing, India may be better poised for a l...
Mike Wilson: Fiscal Policy Continues to Drive U.S. Economic and Market Performance
14 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While the Fed fights generationally high inflation, the U.S. economy continues to grow, supported by high levels of spending. This has affected both t...
U.S. Equities: Valuations Still Matter
11 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While the Fed navigates a soft landing for the U.S. economy and stock valuations remain high, how can investors navigate the risks and rewards of a su...
Pharmaceuticals: The Investment Opportunity in Obesity Treatment
10 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
A recent landmark study around weight-loss medicine could spark near-term growth opportunities in pharmaceuticals.----- Transcript -----Mark Purcell: ...
Michael Zezas: The Impact of New Investment Limitations in China
09 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Forthcoming U.S. restrictions on some tech investments in China may present new opportunities as companies adapt to these constraints.----- Transcript...
Social Investing: The Future of Sustainability
08 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The profound demographic changes underway in countries around the world will require innovative, socially focused solutions in sectors including healt...
U.S Housing: U.S Housing Market Remains Tight for Buyers
07 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The residential housing market continues to face limited inventory, low affordability and high mortgage rates, but the worst may have passed.----- Tra...
Andrew Sheets: Why Are Rates Up and Stocks Down?
04 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Moves by the Bank of Japan, the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and new economic data may all have contributed to a spike in bond yields and fall ...
Ron Kamdem: ‘Bifurcation’ in Global Office Real Estate Markets
03 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While rate hikes and work from home are depressing office real estate in the U.S., the market is vast globally, and there are clear differences across...
Michael Zezas: How Will the U.S. Credit Downgrade Affect Markets?
03 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The recent downgrade to Fitch's U.S. credit rating should have less of an impact on demand for bonds than the ongoing trajectory of inflation.---...