Thoughts on the Market
Episodes
How Immigration’s Rise Could Boost Economic Growth
01 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Global Chief Economist surveys recent US and Australian census data to explain immigration’s impact on labor supply and demand, as well as the i...
US Housing: Will Lower Fees Means Higher Sales?
28 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
A landmark settlement with the National Association of Realtors will change the way brokers are paid commissions. How would this affect people looking...
Are Credit Scores Inflated?
27 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Consumer credit scores have ticked higher in the last two years – but so have the rate of delinquencies and defaults. Our Global Head of Fixed Incom...
Finding Late-Cycle Winners
26 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
As investors look for clues on market durability, our Chief U.S. Equity Strategist highlights which sectors could show more widely distributed gains i...
The Evolution of Private Credit
25 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Morgan Stanley’s Chief Fixed Income Strategist explains why private credit markets have expanded rapidly in recent years, and how they may fare if p...
Can ‘As Expected’ Still Give New Information?
22 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Head of Corporate Credit notes that while recent central bank meetings offered few surprises, there was still plenty to be gleaned that could affe...
European Financials: Why Confidence Has Returned
21 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The perspective from our recent European Financials Conference looked positive for UK markets, loan demand and M&A activity. Our European heads of...
2024 US Elections: Global Investors' Key Questions
20 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research outlines the potential impact the upcoming U.S. elections could have on increasing treasury yiel...
Asia Equities: A Quarter of Dispersion
19 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Chief Asia and Emerging Market Equity Strategist reviews an up-and-down first quarter for markets across the region, and gives an update...
Finding the Equity Sweet Spot
18 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our CIO and Chief Equity Strategist discusses the continued uncertainty in the markets, and how investors are now looking at earnings growth and impro...
Rate Cut Uncertainty
15 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Head of Corporate Credit Research explains why leveraged loans would benefit if bumpy inflation data leads the Federal Reserve to delay interest r...
Economics Roundtable: Updating our 2024 Outlook
14 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Morgan Stanley’s chief economists have their quarterly roundtable discussion, focusing on the state of inflation across global regions, the possible...
Revving Up the Speed of E-Commerce Delivery
13 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Freight Transportation & Airlines Analyst unboxes the latest trends around parcel transit times and systems in the U.S. and their impact on th...
Where AI Is Advancing
12 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our roundtable of experts recaps highlights from the 2024 Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference, including AI innovation, trends i...
AI, Scale and Privacy
11 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Matt Cost of the firm’s U.S. Internet team shares his key takeaways from the 2024 Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference, includi...
M&A Rebound Ahead?
08 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Head of Corporate Credit Research cites near-term and long-term factors indicating that investors should expect a major boost in merger and acquis...
Why European Data Centers Are Set for Major Growth
07 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Morgan Stanley’s Europe Telecom Analyst outlines three factors pointing to a boom, the obstacles to overcome and the associated industries most like...
Three Long-Term Trends by the Numbers
06 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Global Head of Fixed Income shares some startling data on decarbonization, the widespread use of AI and longevity. ----- Transcript ---...
How US Consumers Will Spend 2024 Tax Refunds
05 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
With tax season underway, our U.S. economist explains what the average refund will look like and how people are likely to spend it.----- Transcript --...
Hedging in a Robust Equity Market
04 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The U.S. stock market is rising to new highs, but investors should still try to minimize risk in their portfolios. Our analysts list a few key strateg...
The Predictive Power of PMIs
01 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our head of Corporate Credit Research explains why the Purchasing Manager’s Index is a key indicator for investors to get a read on the economic out...
Making Sense of Confusing Economic Data
01 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Global Macro Strategist explains the complex nature of recent U.S. economic reports, and which figures should matter most to investors.----- Trans...
Should Investors Care About a Government Shutdown?
28 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
As the deadline to fund the government rapidly approaches, Michael Zezas explains what economic effect a possible shutdown could have and whether inve...
Why Is the Price of Food Still Rising?
27 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
As grocery and dining costs continue to increase, our analysts break down how this has affected consumers and when food prices may stabilize.----- Tra...
The Gap Between Corporate Haves and Have-Nots
26 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Chief U.S. Equity Strategist reviews how the unusual mix of loose fiscal policy and tight monetary policy has benefited a small number of companie...
Eyeing a Market of Many
23 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The valuations of stocks and corporate bonds, which have been driven largely by macroeconomic factors since 2020, are finally starting to reflect comp...
Behind the Rapid Growth of the Private Credit Market
22 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
As traditional financial institutions tightened their lending standards last year, private credit stepped in to fill some of the gaps. But with rates ...
An Atlantic-Sized Divide in Monetary Policy
21 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Central banks in the U.S. and Europe are looking to cut rates this year, but the path to those cuts differs greatly. Our Global Chief Economist explai...
Accelerating the Shift from AI Enablers to AI Adopters
20 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Head of Thematic Research in Europe previews the possible next phase of the AI revolution, and what investors should be monitoring as the technolo...
Commercial Real Estate's Uncertain Future
16 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Fixed Income Strategist outlines commercial real estate’s post-pandemic challenges, which could make regional bank lenders vulnerable. ----...
What the U.S. Election Could Mean for NATO
15 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research, gives his take on how the U.S. election may influence European policy on national se...
The Rising Risk of Global Trade Tensions for Asia
15 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Key developments in China and the U.S. will impact global trade and the growth outlook for Asia in 2024.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on t...
Ripple Effects of the Red Sea Disruptions
14 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our expert panel discusses how the Red Sea situation is affecting the global economy and equity markets, as well as key sectors and the shipping indus...
Three Reasons the U.S. Consumer Outlook Remains Strong
12 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Despite a likely softening of the labor market, U.S. consumer spending should remain healthy for 2024.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the...
Rooting for a Positive Rate of Change
09 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Investors in credit markets pay close attention to the latest economic data. Our head of Corporate Credit Research explains why they should ...
Trends in the 2024 Credit Landscape
08 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our credit experts from Research and Investment Management give their overview of private and public credit markets, comparing their strengths and wea...
Which Geopolitical Events Matter Most to Investors
07 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
With multiple, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, our analyst says investors should separate signals from noise in how these events can impact markets.Im...
What Japan Can Teach the World About Longevity
07 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Japan’s experience as one of the first countries to have an aging population offers a glimpse of what’s to come for other countries on the same pa...
A Longer Wait for Rate Cuts?
05 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
As positive economic data makes it less likely that the Fed will cut rates in March, our Chief US Equity Strategist explains what this ...
Is the Housing Market Back?
02 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Mortgage rates are down, sales volumes are rising and housing is gradually getting more affordable. Our analysts discuss why they think the U.S. housi...
How Longevity Is Influencing Consumer Spending
01 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our analyst explains what parts of the consumer staples sector could benefit from an aging global population.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts...
Is M&A Ready to Bounce Back?
01 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
While 2023 was an active year for U.S. mergers and acquisitions, according to Wally Cheng, Head of West Coast M&A in our Technology Investment Ban...
Markets Are Ready for More Bonds
30 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Who is going to buy nearly $11 trillion in new fixed-income assets in 2024? Find out where our Chief Cross-Asset strategist expects to see demand.----...
Opportunities in Corporate Credit for 2024
30 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
With the rise of technology, media and telecom credit markets, our analyst explains how companies are looking to manage the rapidly changing landscape...
Why It’s Time to Be Bullish on European Equities
26 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Listen as our strategist cites which present-day factors and historical precedents should have investors expecting a big year in European equities.---...
Will the U.S. Presidential Election Change Fed Policy?
25 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Investors are concerned that the upcoming election might interfere with policy decisions. Here’s why our view is different.----- Transcript -----Mat...
What Matters Most to Markets in the U.S. Election
24 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
While it’s too early to tell who will win the U.S. presidential election – or how markets will respond to it – there are a few factors tha...
Taking the Long View
23 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, discusses long-term investors’ biggest concern – the amount and timing...
Chasing the End of the Economic Cycle
22 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
As the current economic cycle plays out, history suggests that stock prices could be in for large price swings in both directions.----- Transcript ---...
Special Encore: Andrew Sheets: Why 2024 Is Off to a Rocky Start
20 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on January 5, 2024: Should investors be concerned about a sluggish beginning to the year, or do they just need to be patient?----- Tr...
Mexico Nearshoring Keeps Going Strong
18 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Many investors think the boom in Mexico nearshoring is losing steam. See what they may be missing.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Mar...
Three Investment Themes for 2024 and Beyond
17 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Elections, geopolitical risks and rate cuts are driving markets in the short term. But there are three trends that could provide long-term investment ...
The Growth Outlook for China’s Tech Sector
16 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Although China has emerged as one of the world’s largest end markets for technology, its tech sector faces some significant macro hurdles. Here’s ...
What’s Next for Money Market Funds?
12 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Changing Fed policy in 2024 is likely to bring down yields from these increasingly popular funds. Here’s what investors can consider instead.----- T...
The Path Ahead for Natural Gas and Shale
11 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Investors are split on the outlook for natural gas as “peak shale” may be on the horizon. Here’s what to expect in 2024.----- Transcript -----We...
Will Global Oil Markets Surprise In 2024?
10 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
World oil demand is slowing, non-OPEC supply remains strong and OPEC is likely to follow through on planned cuts. Here’s how investors can...
Are These Gen AI’s Next Big Winners?
09 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Companies that offer generative AI solutions saw their valuations rise in 2023. This year, investors should look at the companies adopting t...
Will Anti-Obesity Drugs Disrupt the MedTech Industry?
08 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Investors worry that anti-obesity drugs could dent demand for medical procedures and devices. Here’s what they could be missing.----- Transcrip...
Andrew Sheets: Why 2024 Is Off to a Rocky Start
05 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Should investors be concerned about a sluggish beginning to the year, or do they just need to be patient?----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on ...
Can Japanese Equities Rally in 2024?
04 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Many investors believe that the value of Japanese stocks will dip as the yen gets stronger. Here’s why we’re forecasting ~10% growth.----- Transcr...
New Year, New Investment Themes?
03 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Tune in as our analysts take a look back at the major themes from 2023 and a look ahead to what investors should be eyeing in 2024.----- Transcript --...
2024 U.S. Autos Outlook: Should Investors Be Concerned?
02 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The auto industry is pivoting from big spending to capital discipline. Our analyst highlights possible areas where investors may find opportunities th...
End-of-Year Encore: Macro Economy: The 2024 Outlook Part 2
29 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on November 14th, 2023: Our roundtable discussion on the future of the global economy and markets continues, as our analysts preview ...
End-of-Year Encore: Macro Economy: The 2024 Outlook
28 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on November 13th, 2023: As global growth takes a hit and inflation begins to cool, how does the road ahead look for central banks and...
End-of-Year Encore: 2024 Asia Equities Outlook: India vs. China
27 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on December 7th, 2023: Will India equities continue to outperform China equities in 2024? The two key factors investors should track....
End-of-Year Encore: An Early Guide to the 2024 U.S. Elections
26 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on December 6th, 2023: Although much will change before the elections, investors should watch for potential impacts on issues such as...
Andrew Sheets: Credit Markets Take a Sunny View
22 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
How has corporate credit fared through slow growth and high inflation? Here’s our view on what comes next for this market.----- Transcript -----[00:...
Will Falling Rates Mean Lower Home Prices?
21 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As mortgage rates come down from 8% closer to 6.5%, the 2024 housing market will see changes in inventory, home prices and sales.----- Transcript ----...
Michael Zezas: Why Geopolitics May Matter More in 2024
20 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While the U.S. debt ceiling challenge and the conflict in the Middle East left markets largely undisturbed this year, 2024 could tell a different stor...
Will the Fed’s Pivot Favor Bonds Over Equities?
19 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Hear our perspective on market action following the Fed's change in direction, and what it means for our 2024 outlook. ----- Transcript -----Vish...
Mike Wilson: Does the U.S. Equity Rally Still Have Steam?
18 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Hear how the Fed’s announcement of upcoming rate cuts could affect equity markets—particularly small-cap stocks.----- Transcript -----Welcome to T...
Economic Roundtable: What’s in Store for ’24?
16 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Join our first quarterly roundtable where Morgan Stanley’s chief economists discuss the outlook for the U.S., Europe, China, and Japan.----- Transcr...
Sustainability: Mixed Signals on Decarbonization After COP28
14 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The U.N. Climate Change Conference, COP28, delivered positive news around technology, clean energy and methane emissions. But investors should be wary...
Michael Zezas: The U.S. Election, Clean Energy and Healthcare
13 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Investors are concerned about the potential impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election in a number of sectors. Here’s what to watch.----- Tra...
2024 China Outlook: Can Growth Rebound?
12 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
China continues to face the triple challenge of debt, deflation and demographics. But are investors missing an opportunity in China equities? ---...
Mike Wilson: Could Bond Market Consolidation Weigh on U.S. Equities?
11 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Here’s how upcoming inflation data and this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting could affect the U.S. bond and equity markets. -----...
David Adams: A Contrarian Call on the U.S. Dollar
08 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Will the U.S. dollar weaken further as the economy slows? What will its value be compared to the Euro by spring 2024? Our analyst tackles those key cu...
2024 Asia Equities Outlook: India vs. China
07 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Will India equities continue to outperform China equities in 2024? The two key factors investors should track.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thought...
An Early Guide to the 2024 U.S. Elections
06 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Although much will change before the elections, investors should watch for potential impacts on issues such as AI regulation, energy permitting, ...
2024 Asia Economics Outlook: Still Divergent?
05 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Asia’s economic recovery could continue to be out of step with the rest of the world. Hear which countries are positioned for growth and which might...
Mike Wilson: Are Markets Following the Right Playbook?
04 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
U.S. equities markets appear to be betting on an outdated playbook that worked when inflation was benign. But analysis of earnings and macro data...
Andrew Sheets: November’s Early Holiday Gift to Investors
01 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The market rally of the last few weeks is based on strong economic data, suggesting that the U.S. and Europe remain on track for a “soft landing.”...
Pamela Kaufman: Anti-Obesity Meds Could Bite Into Food Sales
30 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The growing popularity of medicines that curb appetite is having an impact on consumption of less-healthy foods. Here’s what that could mean for pac...
Ravi Shanker: A New Golden Age of Travel Ahead?
29 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With a strong holiday season expected, and a rise in U.S. passport issuance, there’s good reason to believe the travel industry will see durable gro...
How Education Companies Can Benefit from AI
28 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Investors in the education sector have focused on threats from generative AI, but may be missing the potential for greater efficiency and new opportun...
Vishy Tirupattur: Debating the Outlook
27 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Morgan Stanley published its 2024 macroeconomic and investment outlooks last week after spirited debates among our economists and strategists. Three t...
Special Encore: Matt Cost: How AI Could Disrupt Gaming
24 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on November, 7th 2023: AI could help video game companies boost engagement and consumer spending, but could also introduce competitio...
Special Encore: US Economy: What Generative AI Means for the Labor Market
22 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release on November, 2nd 2023: Generative AI could transform the nature of work and boost productivity, but companies and governments will ne...
U.S. Consumer: Mixed Holiday Spending Expectations
21 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Third-quarter consumer spending was strong, but a growing gap between middle- and higher-income consumers may affect the holiday shopping season.-----...
Ed Stanley: The Cutting Edge of AI
20 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The next phase in artificial intelligence could be “edge AI,” which lowers costs and improves security by embedding AI capabilities directly in sm...
Ellen Zentner: 2024 U.S. Economic Outlook
17 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Our Chief U.S. Economist previews the key economic themes of 2024, including potential rate cuts, housing affordability, job growth and more. ---...
Serena Tang: The Return of the 60/40 Portfolio
16 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
After poor performance in 2022, a traditional 60/40 equity/bond portfolio could see an annual return around 8% over the next decade.----- Transcript -...
Special: What Should I Do With My Money?
15 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
If you're a listener to Thoughts on the Market you may be interested in another of our podcasts: What Should I Do With My Money? ----------------...
Macro Economy: The 2024 Outlook Part 2
15 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Our roundtable discussion on the future of the global economy and markets continues, as our analysts preview what is ahead for government bonds, curre...
Macro Economy: The 2024 Outlook
14 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As global growth takes a hit and inflation begins to cool, how does the road ahead look for central banks and investors? Chief Fixed Income Strategist...
Andrew Sheets: Will the Bond Market Suffer from Tax-Loss Selling?
10 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Investors whose corporate bond holdings have lost value in 2023 could sell before the end of the year, locking in their losses to offset gains elsewhe...
Ed Stanley: Weight Loss Drugs and the Global Economy
09 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Despite some falloff in consumer interest, anti-obesity drugs are still likely to have profound implications at both the macro and sectoral level.----...
Michael Zezas: Are the Worst Bond Returns Behind Us?
08 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The recent treasury rally signals that perhaps the U.S. fiscal trajectory isn't as challenging as bond investors had feared.----- Transcript -----Welc...
Matt Cost: How AI Could Disrupt Gaming
07 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
AI could help video game companies boost engagement and consumer spending, but could also introduce competition by making it easier for new companies ...
Mike Wilson: Will the Equity Market Rally Last?
06 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Last week’s uptick in stock prices, driven by a pullback in bond yields and the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady, is likely to fizzle over...