Thoughts on the Market

At Political Conventions, Policy Waits in the Wings

21 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This week’s Democratic National Convention in the US may be light on policy details, but our Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research expla...

Special Encore: Almost Human: Robots in Our Near Future

20 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Original release date July 23, 2024: Our Head of Global Autos & Shared Mobility discusses what makes humanoid robots a pivotal trend with implicat...

Why Immigration Matters for Global Economies

19 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Global Chief Economist explains what stricter immigration policy in key markets around the world could mean for economic growth and inflation.----...

Strong Balance Sheets, Cautious Boardrooms

16 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research explains how corporate balance sheets have remained resilient post-COVID, and why that could continue in the fac...

Will the US Dollar Remain Strong Post-Election?

15 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our US Public Policy and Currency experts discuss how different outcomes in the upcoming U.S. elections could have varying effects on the strength of ...

Can Vacant Offices Help Solve the US Housing Crisis?

14 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The rise in unused office space has triggered suggestions about converting commercial real estate into residential buildings. But our US Real Est...

US Election Should Not Dim M&A Resurgence

13 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our US Public Policy Strategist expects a robust M&A cycle, regardless of the outcome of the US election. But rising antitrust concerns could crea...

Pay Attention to Data, Not Market Drama

12 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Recent market volatility has made headlines, but our Global Chief Economist explains why the numbers aren’t as dire as they seem.----- Transcript --...

Rate Cut Ripple

09 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As markets adjust to global volatility, our Head of Corporate Credit Research considers when the Fed might choose to cut interest rates and how long t...

Health Care for Longer, Healthier Lives

08 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Head of Europe Sustainability Research discusses how rising longevity is revolutionizing our fundamental approach from reactive to proactive treat...

What This Roller Coaster Week Means for Bonds

07 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Global Head of Thematic and Fixed Income Research joins our Chief Fixed Income Strategist to discuss the recent market volatility and how it impac...

Why Money Market Funds Aren’t ‘Cash On The Sidelines’

06 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Risk-averse investors have poured trillions into money-market funds since 2019. Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist explains why investors shouldn’...

Making Sense of the Correction

05 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Although Monday’s correction springs from multiple causes, the real questions may be what’s next and when will the correction become a buying oppo...

Looking Back at a Whirlwind Week

02 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

After a dizzying week of economic and market activity, our Head of Corporate Credit Research breaks down the three top stories.----- Transcript -...

Following the Flows

02 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist, Serena Tang, explains where funds are moving across global markets currently, and why it matters to investors...

Will GenAI Help or Hurt Ad Agencies?

31 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As Generative AI continues to accelerate, some agencies will be better positioned than others to reap the benefits. Our Europe Media & Entertainme...

Navigating the Quality and Cap Curves

30 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

A later cycle economy and continued uncertainty means that investors should be remain wary of cyclicals such as small caps, explains Mike Wilson, our ...

The Coming Nuclear Power Renaissance

29 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our sustainability strategists Stephen Byrd and Tim Chan discuss what’s driving new opportunities across the global nuclear power sector and some ri...

Three Risks for the Third Quarter

26 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our head of Corporate Credit Research, Andrew Sheets, notes areas of uncertainty in the credit, equity and macro landscapes that are worth tracking as...

Investors’ Questions After Election Shakeup

25 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Markets are contending with greater uncertainty around the US presidential election following President Biden’s withdrawal. Our Global Head of Fixed...

How Asian Markets View US Elections

24 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Chief Asia Economist explains how the region’s economies and markets would be affected by higher tariffs, and other possible scenarios in the US...

Almost Human: Robots in Our Near Future

23 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Head of Global Autos & Shared Mobility discusses what makes humanoid robots a pivotal trend with implications for the global economy.----- Tra...

Business Cycle May Trump Politics

22 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist explains that in the event of a Republican sweep in this fall’s U.S. elections, investors should not expect a...

Why Credit Markets Like Moderation

19 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research shares four reasons that he believes credit spreads are likely to stay near their current lows.----- Transcript ...

The Surprising Link Between Auto Insurance and Inflation

18 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our experts discuss how high prices for auto insurance have been driving inflation, and the implications for consumers and the Fed now that price incr...

Navigating Market Reactions to the News Cycle

17 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Financial markets can be sensitive to news cycles, but our Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research offers a word of caution about reacting t...

Beyond the 60/40 Portfolio?

16 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist explains why she sees a future for the 60/40 portfolio strategy, which worked well for over half a century and...

Retail’s Comeback Plan

15 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Retail analyst and U.S. Internet analyst connect the dots on how technology is helping the retail industry to cash in on the future.----- Transcri...

Why We Believe the Fed Will – and Should – Cut Rates Soon

12 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research explains why he expects the US Federal Reserve to make three rate cuts before the end of the year, starting in S...

Business Travelers Pack Their Bags

11 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Freight Transportation & Airlines Analyst discusses the key takeaways from his mid-year corporate travel survey, which includes a number of po...

Less Impact Than You Might Think

10 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

U.S., French and Indian elections may have a minimal effect on equity markets, particularly in the short term, according to our Global Head of Fixed I...

US Housing: What Will Slow Home Price Growth?

09 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Record-high prices remain a key concern for buyers in the U.S. housing market. Our Co-Heads of Securitized Product Research dig into the data, explain...

2024 US Elections: The Impact of Inflation

08 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Inflation continues to be a key issue for voters in elections around the world. Our CIO and Chief US Equity strategist explains its potential influenc...

Special Encore: A Sobering View on the Spirits Sector

05 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Original release date April 15, 2024: Markets are suggesting that spirits consumption will return to historical growth levels post-pandemic, but our H...

Why Central Banks Still Get It Wrong Sometimes

03 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Central banks play a crucial role in monetary policy and moderating the business cycle. Our Head of Corporate Credit Research explains why, despite th...

Investors Eye Reactions to US Presidential Debate

02 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Global Head of Fixed Income recaps the aftermath of the first U.S. presidential debate, and how markets may react if forthcoming poll data shows a...

Housing Update: Home Prices Unlikely to Decline

01 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Rising rents and mortgage payments have been at the center of the inflation discussion. Our Global Chief Economist assesses whether monetary policy ca...

Why Good Data Is Good For Markets

28 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research makes the case against the popular notion that solid economic data would be bad for markets, and instead offers ...

Introducing: What Should I Do With My Money Season 2

28 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

If you're a listener to Thoughts on the Market you may be interested in Season 2 of our podcast: What Should I Do With My Money? ------...

Funding the AI Revolution

27 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As the infrastructure needs for artificial intelligence soar, so does the need for financing. Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist talks about the role c...

Fiscal Sustainability and the French and US Elections

26 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Global Chief Economist explains why markets are concerned about uncertainty around the French and US elections, and how their outcomes may affect ...

Navigating the Narrow Stock Market

25 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist explains how to make sense of the equity market’s narrow performance, and why stock picking takes on greater ...

Economics Roundtable: Global Elections in Focus

24 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Halfway through a historic year for elections around the world, Morgan Stanley’s chief economists assess the impact of recent results on the global ...

Economics Roundtable: Investors Eye Central Banks

21 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Morgan Stanley’s chief economists examine the varied responses of global central banks to noisy inflation data in their quarterly roundtable discuss...

Volatility Doesn’t Necessarily Rock the Boat

20 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our head of corporate credit research dives into the question of correlation and market volatility, and explains why stock indices can remain stable d...

Investment Discipline In An Election Year

18 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Investors watching for market reactions would do well to stick to their existing plans in an environment where the economic impacts of any particular ...

Tracking the Rebound in Tech IPOs

17 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The AI revolution has helped fuel the tech IPO sector’s resurgence following a two-year lull. Our Co-Heads of Technology Equity Capital Markets join...

This Is Still India’s Decade

14 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Head of India Research and Chief India Equity Strategist lays out his bullish post-election view on India, explaining why the market is likely to ...

Cautious Corporate Boards Extend the Credit Cycle

13 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

A strong economy and global stock market surge may suggest market euphoria. However, our Head of Corporate Credit Research explains why the corporate ...

Convenience Is Compelling

12 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our US Thematic Strategist explains the premium that consumers will pay for convenience, and what that means for sectors including online retail, dini...

Presidential Elections Aren’t the Only Important Ones

11 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Global Chief Economist takes stock of recent elections in India, Mexico and South Africa -- and what they suggest about the market implications of...

Investors Riding an Unpredictable Wave

10 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist explains why economic fluctuations have made it more difficult to project a possible soft or no landing outco...

What Global Elections Mean for Markets

07 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Global Head of Emerging Markets Sovereign Credit reviews key insights and strategies for investors following the recent elections in Mexico, South...

Inside Japan’s Economic Transformation

06 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our four-person panel explains Japan’s economic boom, from growing GDP to corporate sector vibrancy, and which upward trends will sustain.----- Tran...

Special Encore: The Curious Connection Between Airlines and Fashion

05 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Original release date April 29, 2024: Our analysts find that despite the obvious differences between retail fashion and airlines, struggling...

Spirited Debates Around Our Midyear Outlooks

04 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist takes listeners behind the curtain on Morgan Stanley’s expectations for markets over the next 12 months.----- Tran...

Why an ‘Everything Rally’ Is Still Possible

03 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist explains why the high correlation between stocks and bonds could work in investors’ favor throughout the second hal...

Why TMT Bonds Are Underperforming

31 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In a generally positive environment for corporate credit, the recent performance of high-yield bonds in the telecom, media and technology (TMT) sector...

European Economic Outlook: Decidedly More Optimistic

30 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Chief Europe Economist explains why the region’s outlook over the next year is trending upward, including how higher growth will lead to lower i...

Global Questions About the US Elections

29 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research reflects on Japanese investors’ interest in the outcome of the upcoming presidential vote in t...

Midyear European Equities Outlook: In the Sweet Spot

28 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Chief Europe Equity Strategist explains why she is forecasting a 23 percent total return for European equities over the next year.----- Transcript...

Midyear Credit Outlook Favors Moderation

24 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research explains why moderate economic growth offers opportunities in credit markets – if investors choose carefu...

Midyear Housing Outlook: Is Home Sale Activity Picking Up?

23 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

With cooling inflation and an expected drop for mortgage rates, will more affordable housing lead to a big spike in sales? Our Co-Heads of Securitized...

Midyear US Economic Outlook: Continued Resilience

22 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Why is the US economy poised for a strong second half of the year, despite slowing GDP growth? Our Chief US Economist points to population growth, hou...

Midyear Cross-Asset Outlook: Bullish Possibilities

21 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Global Cross-Asset Strategist and Global Chief Economist discuss the state of asset markets at the midway point of 2024, and why the current backd...

Midyear Economic Outlook: Reasons for Optimism

20 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Global Chief Economist and Global Cross-Asset Strategist discuss the state of the global economy at the midpoint of 2024, including how the U.S. a...

Seeking Better Value in Emerging Market Debt

17 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research explains why the debt of high-rated EM countries is a viable alternative for investors looking for high yields w...

Get Ready for a Summer Travel Boom

16 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our research shows travelers are willing to spend more this summer than last. U.S. Thematic Strategist Michelle Weaver explains how this will impact t...

The Narrow Scope of US Tariffs on China

15 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research explains that the Biden administration’s new tariffs on Chinese imports are narrower than thos...

Lessons from Retail Success Stories

14 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Retail Analyst discusses the key strategies that have propelled a select few companies in U.S. consumer retail amid a challenging demand backdrop....

Spring IMF Meetings Spark Cautious Optimism

13 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our experts highlight their biggest takeaways from the International Monetary Fund’s recent meetings, including which markets around the globe are o...

How Mexico’s Elections Could Change Global Markets

10 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Morgan Stanley’s Chief Latin America Strategist explains the importance of Mexico’s upcoming presidential election, laying out the possible invest...

The Fed Sends a Clear Message

09 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist explains why the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting was so consequential, and the likeliest path ahead for inte...

Can US Dollar Dominance Continue?

08 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our expert panel explains the U.S. dollar’s current status as the primary global reserve currency and whether the euro and renminbi, or even crypto ...

Managing for Economic Uncertainty

07 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As the U.S. economy continues to send mixed signals, our CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist explains how markets are likely to oscillate between “so...

What If Rates Are Higher for Longer?

06 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Lisa Shalett is a member of Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management Division and is not a member of Morgan Stanley’s Research Department. Unless otherw...

Separating the Cyclical from the Systemic

03 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Lisa Shalett, our CIO for Wealth Management, and our Head of Corporate Credit Research discuss how to forecast expected returns over the long term, an...

Special Encore: Seth Carpenter: Looking Back for the Future

03 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Original release date April 8, 2024: Our Global Chief Economist explains why the rapid hikes, pause and pivot of the current interest rate cycle are r...

Where Is the US Dollar Headed?

02 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our experts discuss U.S. dollar strength and its far-reaching impact on the global economy and the world’s stock markets.----- Transcript -----Micha...

Decarbonizing Real Estate

30 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our analysts survey the hurdles, opportunities and investment trends in energy renovation.Please note that Laurel Durkay is not a member of ...

The Curious Connection Between Airlines and Fashion

29 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our analysts find that despite the obvious differences between retail fashion and airlines, struggling brands in both industries can use a s...

Can Technology Help Us Live Longer & Better?

26 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Head of Europe Thematic Research discusses revolutionary “Longshot” technologies that can potentially alter the course of human ageing, and wh...

Meeting the Demand for Anti-Obesity Treatment

25 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

With interest in anti-obesity medications growing significantly, the head of our European Pharmaceuticals Team examines just how large that marke...

European Markets React to Upcoming U.S. Election

24 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As the U.S. presidential election remains closely contested, our experts discuss what a change in administration could mean for European equities in t...

US Economy: Bigger, But Not Tighter

23 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

New data on both immigration and inflation defied predictions and may have shifted the Fed’s perspective. Our Chief U.S. Economist and Head of U.S. ...

US Equities: No Landing in Sight

22 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Recent data indicates the economy may avoid either a soft or hard landing for now. Our Chief U.S. Equity Strategist explains why investors should seek...

Mixed Signals for Asia and Emerging Markets

19 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Japan and India are currently set to lead growth in these markets, but a higher-for-longer rate environment in the U.S. could favor China, Hong Kong a...

A Central Piece of the GenAI Puzzle

18 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

GenAI will likely drive the exponential growth of data centers. Listen as our Capital Goods Analyst shares key takeaways on the electrical equipment c...

The Repercussions of Rising Global Tensions

17 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As global conflicts escalate, our Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research unpacks the possible market outcomes as companies and governments ...

How Will the GenAI Revolution Be Powered?

16 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Global Head of Sustainability Research and U.S. Utilities Analyst discuss the rapidly growing power needs of the GenAI enablers and how to meet th...

A Sobering View on the Spirits Sector

16 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Markets are suggesting that spirits consumption will return to historical growth levels post-pandemic, but our Head of European Consumer Staples Resea...

Unpacking Correlation

12 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The math of ‘bond-equity correlation' is complicated. Our head of Corporate Credit Research breaks it down, along with the impact of bond rates...

US Energy: The Minerals and Materials at Risk

11 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

With global temperatures rising and an increasing urgency to speed progress on the energy transition, our Head of Sustainability Equity Research exami...

2024 US Elections: Inflation’s Possible Paths

10 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Global Chief Economist joins our Head of Fixed Income Research to review the most recent Consumer Price Index data, and they lay out potential out...

What is Driving Big Moves in the Oil Market?

09 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist surveys the latest big swings in the oil market, which could lead to opportunities in equities and credit around the...

Looking Back for the Future

08 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our Global Chief Economist explains why the rapid hikes, pause and pivot of the current interest rate cycle are reminiscent of the 1990s.----- Transcr...

A ‘Hot’ Summer for Oil?

05 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Oil demand has been higher than expected so far in 2024. Our Global Commodities Strategist explains what could drive oil to $95 per barrel by summer.-...

The Threat to Clean Energy in the US

04 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Experts from our research team discuss how tensions with China could limit US access to essential technologies and minerals.----- Transcript -----Mich...

The Growing Importance of Where Data Lives

03 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Consumers are increasingly sensitive about where their personal data is being processed and stored. The head of our European Telecom team explains the...

US Elections: Potential Implications for Businesses and Consumers

02 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

We discuss how the upcoming US elections could affect trade and tax policy, and which scenarios are most favorable to retailers and brands. ...