Thoughts on the Market
Episodes
Economics Roundtable: US Election And Tariffs
08 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The rhetoric around the US elections is heating up, and tariffs have become a central theme – to rally for or against. In Part II of our roundtable ...
Economics Roundtable: Central Banks Turn the Corner
07 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Morgan Stanley’s chief economists take stock of a resilient global economy that has weathered a recent period of market volatility, in Part I of our...
Why the Fed’s Next Move May Matter Less
04 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Following the US Federal Reserve’s September rate cut, labor data may have more impact on markets than further cuts. Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporat...
Can China’s Stimulus Shift Its Economy?
03 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Chief China Economist Robin Xing and Chief China Equity Strategist Laura Wang discuss how markets have responded to rate cuts and commitments to g...
What Could the Dockworkers’ Strike Mean for Growth and Inflation?
02 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Thousands of U.S. dockworkers have gone on strike along the East Coast and Gulf Coast. Our Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research Michael Z...
The Potential Domino Effect of US Tariffs
01 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our US public policy and global economics experts discuss how an escalation of US tariffs could have major domestic and international economic implica...
The Impact of Central Bank Pivots
30 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist Mike Wilson takes a closer look at the potential ramifications of the sharp central bank policy shifts in the U...
Keeping the Faith For A Soft Landing
27 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Credit likes moderation, and the Fed’s rate cut indicates its belief that the economy is heading for a soft landing. Our Chief Fixed Income Strategi...
How Long Until Consumers Feel Rate Cut Benefits?
26 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our US Consumer Economist Sarah Wolfe lays out the impact of the Federal Reserve’s rate cut on labor market and consumers, including which goods cou...
US Elections: The Wait for Clarity
25 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
With the US presidential race being as closely contested as it is, Michael Zezas explains why patience may be a virtue for investors following El...
One Rate Cut, Many Effects
24 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
From stock price fluctuations to concerns about deflation, the reactions to the Fed rate cut have been varied. But we still need to keep an eye on lab...
As the Fed Recalibrates, What’s Ahead for Central Banks?
23 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Global Chief Economist, Seth Carpenter, explains why, despite last week’s big Fed move, there’s still plenty of uncertainty in global markets ...
Mexico Judicial Reforms Spark Investor Concern
20 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Chief Latin American Equity Strategist explains how potential changes in Mexico’s regulatory approach could have implications for the country’...
Industrials Outlook ‘Better Than Feared’
19 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Investors came away from Morgan Stanley’s recent Industrials Conference with a more optimistic outlook than they expected, based on perspectives inc...
Presidential Debate Targets Perceptions Over Policy
18 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
While the electoral impact of last week’s US presidential debate is unclear, our Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research offers two guidin...
US Elections: The Politics of Healthcare
17 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our US Public Policy Strategist explains the potential impact of the upcoming presidential election on the healthcare sector, including whether the ou...
Markets Readying for a Rate Cut
16 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
With the Federal Reserve poised to make its long-awaited rate cut this week, our CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist tells us why investors have pivote...
Bank of Japan’s Role in Market Volatility
13 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
After sending global markets in a brief tailspin in early August, the Bank of Japan is once again the center of attention. Our Global Chief Economist ...
Corporate Credit at a Crossroads?
12 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Head of Corporate Credit Research looks at the Fed’s approach to rate cuts, seasonal trends and the US election to explain why the next month re...
Uneven Recovery in Commercial Real Estate
11 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Office buildings continue to struggle in the post-pandemic era, but our Chief Fixed Income Strategist notes that other properties have turned a corner...
Trading Spaces: Millennials vs. Boomers
10 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
With the generational shift in the US housing market underway, our analysts discuss the impact this trend will have on residential real estate investi...
Shaky Labor Data Pressures Equity Markets
09 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Following weaker-than-expected August jobs data, our CIO and Chief U.S Equity Strategist lays out how the Federal Reserve can ease concerns ...
Balance Sheets Remain Resilient Despite Slowing US Growth
06 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Head of Corporate Credit Research, Andrew Sheets, expects a sticky but shallow cycle for defaults on loans, with solid quality overall in high-gra...
Global Energy Markets and the US Election
05 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our US Public Policy and Global Commodities strategists discuss how the outcome of the election could affect energy markets in the US and around the w...
US Election: A Game Of Inches
04 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Despite a flurry of election news, little may have changed for investors weighing the possible outcomes. Our Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Researc...
Wallets Wide Open For GenAI
03 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
While venture capital is taking a more cautionary approach with crypto startups, the buzz around GenAI is only increasing.----- Transcript -----Welcom...
Special Encore: Health Care for Longer, Healthier Lives
30 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Original Release Date August 8, 2024: Our Head of Europe Sustainability Research discusses how rising longevity is revolutionizing our fundamental app...
Is the Fed Behind the Curve?
29 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
As the US Federal Reserve mulls a forthcoming interest rate cut, our Head of Corporate Credit Research and Global Chief Economist discuss how it is ba...
Bumpy Road Back For US Housing Market
28 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
While mortgage rates have come down, our Co-heads of Securitized Products Research say the US housing market still must solve its supply problem.-----...
All Eyes on Jobs Data
27 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist explains why there’s pressure for the August jobs report to come in strong -- and what may happen to the mark...
What’s Boosting Consumer Confidence?
26 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our US Thematic Strategist discusses surging confidence as the political landscape evolves, back-to-school spending starts strong and travel providers...
Market Rebounds but Growth Is Uncertain
23 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Although markets have recovered over the last few weeks after a sudden drop, our Head of Corporate Credit Research warns that investors are still skep...
What’s Next for Japan After Rate Hike?
22 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The Bank of Japan jolted global markets after its recent decision to raise interest rates. Our experts break down the effects the move could have on t...
At Political Conventions, Policy Waits in the Wings
21 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
This week’s Democratic National Convention in the US may be light on policy details, but our Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research expla...
Special Encore: Almost Human: Robots in Our Near Future
20 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Original release date July 23, 2024: Our Head of Global Autos & Shared Mobility discusses what makes humanoid robots a pivotal trend with implicat...
Why Immigration Matters for Global Economies
19 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Global Chief Economist explains what stricter immigration policy in key markets around the world could mean for economic growth and inflation.----...
Strong Balance Sheets, Cautious Boardrooms
16 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Head of Corporate Credit Research explains how corporate balance sheets have remained resilient post-COVID, and why that could continue in the fac...
Will the US Dollar Remain Strong Post-Election?
15 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our US Public Policy and Currency experts discuss how different outcomes in the upcoming U.S. elections could have varying effects on the strength of ...
Can Vacant Offices Help Solve the US Housing Crisis?
14 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The rise in unused office space has triggered suggestions about converting commercial real estate into residential buildings. But our US Real Est...
US Election Should Not Dim M&A Resurgence
13 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our US Public Policy Strategist expects a robust M&A cycle, regardless of the outcome of the US election. But rising antitrust concerns could crea...
Pay Attention to Data, Not Market Drama
12 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Recent market volatility has made headlines, but our Global Chief Economist explains why the numbers aren’t as dire as they seem.----- Transcript --...
Rate Cut Ripple
09 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
As markets adjust to global volatility, our Head of Corporate Credit Research considers when the Fed might choose to cut interest rates and how long t...
Health Care for Longer, Healthier Lives
08 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Head of Europe Sustainability Research discusses how rising longevity is revolutionizing our fundamental approach from reactive to proactive treat...
What This Roller Coaster Week Means for Bonds
07 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Global Head of Thematic and Fixed Income Research joins our Chief Fixed Income Strategist to discuss the recent market volatility and how it impac...
Why Money Market Funds Aren’t ‘Cash On The Sidelines’
06 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Risk-averse investors have poured trillions into money-market funds since 2019. Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist explains why investors shouldn’...
Making Sense of the Correction
05 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Although Monday’s correction springs from multiple causes, the real questions may be what’s next and when will the correction become a buying oppo...
Looking Back at a Whirlwind Week
02 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
After a dizzying week of economic and market activity, our Head of Corporate Credit Research breaks down the three top stories.----- Transcript -...
Following the Flows
02 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist, Serena Tang, explains where funds are moving across global markets currently, and why it matters to investors...
Will GenAI Help or Hurt Ad Agencies?
31 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
As Generative AI continues to accelerate, some agencies will be better positioned than others to reap the benefits. Our Europe Media & Entertainme...
Navigating the Quality and Cap Curves
30 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
A later cycle economy and continued uncertainty means that investors should be remain wary of cyclicals such as small caps, explains Mike Wilson, our ...
The Coming Nuclear Power Renaissance
29 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our sustainability strategists Stephen Byrd and Tim Chan discuss what’s driving new opportunities across the global nuclear power sector and some ri...
Three Risks for the Third Quarter
26 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our head of Corporate Credit Research, Andrew Sheets, notes areas of uncertainty in the credit, equity and macro landscapes that are worth tracking as...
Investors’ Questions After Election Shakeup
25 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Markets are contending with greater uncertainty around the US presidential election following President Biden’s withdrawal. Our Global Head of Fixed...
How Asian Markets View US Elections
24 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Chief Asia Economist explains how the region’s economies and markets would be affected by higher tariffs, and other possible scenarios in the US...
Almost Human: Robots in Our Near Future
23 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Head of Global Autos & Shared Mobility discusses what makes humanoid robots a pivotal trend with implications for the global economy.----- Tra...
Business Cycle May Trump Politics
22 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist explains that in the event of a Republican sweep in this fall’s U.S. elections, investors should not expect a...
Why Credit Markets Like Moderation
19 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Head of Corporate Credit Research shares four reasons that he believes credit spreads are likely to stay near their current lows.----- Transcript ...
The Surprising Link Between Auto Insurance and Inflation
18 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our experts discuss how high prices for auto insurance have been driving inflation, and the implications for consumers and the Fed now that price incr...
Navigating Market Reactions to the News Cycle
17 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Financial markets can be sensitive to news cycles, but our Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research offers a word of caution about reacting t...
Beyond the 60/40 Portfolio?
16 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist explains why she sees a future for the 60/40 portfolio strategy, which worked well for over half a century and...
Retail’s Comeback Plan
15 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Retail analyst and U.S. Internet analyst connect the dots on how technology is helping the retail industry to cash in on the future.----- Transcri...
Why We Believe the Fed Will – and Should – Cut Rates Soon
12 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Head of Corporate Credit Research explains why he expects the US Federal Reserve to make three rate cuts before the end of the year, starting in S...
Business Travelers Pack Their Bags
11 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Freight Transportation & Airlines Analyst discusses the key takeaways from his mid-year corporate travel survey, which includes a number of po...
Less Impact Than You Might Think
10 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
U.S., French and Indian elections may have a minimal effect on equity markets, particularly in the short term, according to our Global Head of Fixed I...
US Housing: What Will Slow Home Price Growth?
09 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Record-high prices remain a key concern for buyers in the U.S. housing market. Our Co-Heads of Securitized Product Research dig into the data, explain...
2024 US Elections: The Impact of Inflation
08 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Inflation continues to be a key issue for voters in elections around the world. Our CIO and Chief US Equity strategist explains its potential influenc...
Special Encore: A Sobering View on the Spirits Sector
05 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Original release date April 15, 2024: Markets are suggesting that spirits consumption will return to historical growth levels post-pandemic, but our H...
Why Central Banks Still Get It Wrong Sometimes
03 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Central banks play a crucial role in monetary policy and moderating the business cycle. Our Head of Corporate Credit Research explains why, despite th...
Investors Eye Reactions to US Presidential Debate
02 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Global Head of Fixed Income recaps the aftermath of the first U.S. presidential debate, and how markets may react if forthcoming poll data shows a...
Housing Update: Home Prices Unlikely to Decline
01 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Rising rents and mortgage payments have been at the center of the inflation discussion. Our Global Chief Economist assesses whether monetary policy ca...
Why Good Data Is Good For Markets
28 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Head of Corporate Credit Research makes the case against the popular notion that solid economic data would be bad for markets, and instead offers ...
Introducing: What Should I Do With My Money Season 2
28 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
If you're a listener to Thoughts on the Market you may be interested in Season 2 of our podcast: What Should I Do With My Money? ------...
Funding the AI Revolution
27 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
As the infrastructure needs for artificial intelligence soar, so does the need for financing. Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist talks about the role c...
Fiscal Sustainability and the French and US Elections
26 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Global Chief Economist explains why markets are concerned about uncertainty around the French and US elections, and how their outcomes may affect ...
Navigating the Narrow Stock Market
25 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist explains how to make sense of the equity market’s narrow performance, and why stock picking takes on greater ...
Economics Roundtable: Global Elections in Focus
24 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Halfway through a historic year for elections around the world, Morgan Stanley’s chief economists assess the impact of recent results on the global ...
Economics Roundtable: Investors Eye Central Banks
21 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Morgan Stanley’s chief economists examine the varied responses of global central banks to noisy inflation data in their quarterly roundtable discuss...
Volatility Doesn’t Necessarily Rock the Boat
20 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our head of corporate credit research dives into the question of correlation and market volatility, and explains why stock indices can remain stable d...
Investment Discipline In An Election Year
18 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Investors watching for market reactions would do well to stick to their existing plans in an environment where the economic impacts of any particular ...
Tracking the Rebound in Tech IPOs
17 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The AI revolution has helped fuel the tech IPO sector’s resurgence following a two-year lull. Our Co-Heads of Technology Equity Capital Markets join...
This Is Still India’s Decade
14 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Head of India Research and Chief India Equity Strategist lays out his bullish post-election view on India, explaining why the market is likely to ...
Cautious Corporate Boards Extend the Credit Cycle
13 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
A strong economy and global stock market surge may suggest market euphoria. However, our Head of Corporate Credit Research explains why the corporate ...
Convenience Is Compelling
12 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our US Thematic Strategist explains the premium that consumers will pay for convenience, and what that means for sectors including online retail, dini...
Presidential Elections Aren’t the Only Important Ones
11 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Global Chief Economist takes stock of recent elections in India, Mexico and South Africa -- and what they suggest about the market implications of...
Investors Riding an Unpredictable Wave
10 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist explains why economic fluctuations have made it more difficult to project a possible soft or no landing outco...
What Global Elections Mean for Markets
07 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Global Head of Emerging Markets Sovereign Credit reviews key insights and strategies for investors following the recent elections in Mexico, South...
Inside Japan’s Economic Transformation
06 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our four-person panel explains Japan’s economic boom, from growing GDP to corporate sector vibrancy, and which upward trends will sustain.----- Tran...
Special Encore: The Curious Connection Between Airlines and Fashion
05 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Original release date April 29, 2024: Our analysts find that despite the obvious differences between retail fashion and airlines, struggling...
Spirited Debates Around Our Midyear Outlooks
04 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist takes listeners behind the curtain on Morgan Stanley’s expectations for markets over the next 12 months.----- Tran...
Why an ‘Everything Rally’ Is Still Possible
03 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist explains why the high correlation between stocks and bonds could work in investors’ favor throughout the second hal...
Why TMT Bonds Are Underperforming
31 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
In a generally positive environment for corporate credit, the recent performance of high-yield bonds in the telecom, media and technology (TMT) sector...
European Economic Outlook: Decidedly More Optimistic
30 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Chief Europe Economist explains why the region’s outlook over the next year is trending upward, including how higher growth will lead to lower i...
Global Questions About the US Elections
29 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research reflects on Japanese investors’ interest in the outcome of the upcoming presidential vote in t...
Midyear European Equities Outlook: In the Sweet Spot
28 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Chief Europe Equity Strategist explains why she is forecasting a 23 percent total return for European equities over the next year.----- Transcript...
Midyear Credit Outlook Favors Moderation
24 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Head of Corporate Credit Research explains why moderate economic growth offers opportunities in credit markets – if investors choose carefu...
Midyear Housing Outlook: Is Home Sale Activity Picking Up?
23 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
With cooling inflation and an expected drop for mortgage rates, will more affordable housing lead to a big spike in sales? Our Co-Heads of Securitized...
Midyear US Economic Outlook: Continued Resilience
22 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Why is the US economy poised for a strong second half of the year, despite slowing GDP growth? Our Chief US Economist points to population growth, hou...
Midyear Cross-Asset Outlook: Bullish Possibilities
21 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Global Cross-Asset Strategist and Global Chief Economist discuss the state of asset markets at the midway point of 2024, and why the current backd...
Midyear Economic Outlook: Reasons for Optimism
20 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Global Chief Economist and Global Cross-Asset Strategist discuss the state of the global economy at the midpoint of 2024, including how the U.S. a...
Seeking Better Value in Emerging Market Debt
17 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our Head of Corporate Credit Research explains why the debt of high-rated EM countries is a viable alternative for investors looking for high yields w...