The biggest threat to the American economy might be the American consumer’s sour mood. This episode was produced by Miles Bryan and Carla Javier, edited by Jolie Myers, fact-checked by Laura Bullard, engineered by Andrea Kristinsdottir and Patrick Boyd, and hosted by Jonquilyn Hill. Transcript at vox.com/today-explained-podcast Support Today, Explained by becoming a Vox Member today: http://www.vox.com/members A "99 cent Up & Less" sign in a Brooklyn neighborhood. Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Full Episode
How worried about a recession are you?
Yes, that's the big question. I'm on a scale of 1 to 10. I'm probably somewhere around a 5 or 6 now, which is way higher. If we had this conversation in January, I think I would have been like a 2. So it just shows you how much it's jumped up. You can pick your favorite economist. I think JP Morgan put the recession odds at 40%. Larry Summers was at 50%.
Goldman Sachs still pretty conservative around 20 to 25%. But everyone agrees the recession risks have really gone up.
Tariffs, the stock market, doge cuts. Americans are getting bad vibes from the economy. But if consumers quit spending, a vibe session could turn into a real session. I'm Jonquan Hill, guest hosting today's show. And all this is coming up on today, Explained.
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I'm Heather Long, an economic columnist at The Washington Post.
Heather, I have a question. This is just something I've personally wondered. Maybe it's because, like, I was 18 in 2008, but, like, is there, are there, like, what will make me say, oh, girl, there's a recession happening? And she's here. Like, are there things or you just got to wait and see? That's a good one.
Yes. Yes, there are. Traditionally, it's the unemployment rate jumping up a lot. People are keeping a close eye on the early signs of that. The other one that I'm keeping a close eye on is is consumption, retail spending. And in particular, I've been watching the normally very dull earnings reports from the companies, but I think the companies are being pretty explicit.
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