Terror plot scuppered at RAF Fairford
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What exactly happened with the explosives found near RAF Fairford?
Now five men have been arrested on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act after explosives were found in three vans near RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire. The base is used by the US military for operations against Iran, and investigators are examining whether there is an Iranian connection. Joining me now with the latest is Dr. Patrick Bury, warfare and counterterrorism expert at the University of Bath. Patrick, good morning. Good morning, David. Do we know what exactly happened here?
No, we don't. And to be honest with you, it's becoming more murky rather than less. Um and so yeah, we uh we'd have to kind of hold off on on speculating and just see what happens. There's a lot of counter indications in terms of a uh a female farmer saying she had to call in nine nine nine after she stumbled across, you know, balaclaved men in three vehicles uh near the base. Uh and then on the other hand, Donald Trump saying that this has been a long term intelligence led operation.
How did the farmer’s 999 call influence the investigation?
They've been following these guys. And then the Defence Secretary Wes Streeting saying potentially close closer to the truth that the farmer only has partial uh picture of the of the situation. So really it's pretty confusing um and and the UK authorities are being pretty tight lipped as well.
Yeah, I mean obviously um Wes Streetan was saying uh I was just watching him there, uh saying that he can't comment on security matters. Now th I think there have been tributes paid to the farmer for for actually calling it in, which is obviously what the government wants members of the public to do if they see something suspicious.
Absolutely, but we we uh and anyone in their right mind would if you're driving back in the middle of the night and you see batterclaving men jumping out of uh Out of a van, um certainly around that part of the world. Uh and so but y listen, the other point is to make here is that it's not mutually exclusive. You could have someone under surveillance and then as you know, people would know that other things happen while you've got them under surveillance, you might be waiting for a higher threshold of evidence and then the a member of the public, you know, wanders in or whatever. So it's not that they're not completely mutually exclusive, but we just don't know. The vans, for example had a um signage on them fuel to you basically a um a knockoff of a of a legitimate company.
What evidence suggests a rapid intelligence‑led response by authorities?
So is this some sort of really poorly chosen diesel operation? I have really w i it it's it's really kind of blown open what the potential uh outcomes could be.
Oh okay, and I and you're warned against speculation, so we d we can't really tell whether this is a serious terrorist threat or not.
We don't know yet. We don't know yet. I I mean
So that indicates that there was some sort of warning uh as well. The speed with which the uh alleged assailants were rounded up within twenty minutes or so also indicates a pretty fast response and that they knew where people were. Um and so you put those things together and the initial indicator you're like, okay, this looks like that there was a bit of intelligence about a mounting threats. Uh that it indeed it may have been vehicular because they were blocking uh the the gateways into the base with with uh armoured vehicles, etcetera.
Yeah, yeah, I mean it's not
I can't say for sure.
Yeah, indeed it's it it is tricky uh to to know exactly what is is going on. I mean it could have been it could have been a planned uh protest of some kind because I mean I know the use of uh Fairford for for those bombing raids on Iran is is pretty controversial in Britain, isn't it?
Which terrorist groups or state actors are being considered as possible perpetrators?
Uh among some groups as well. It could also have been I mean if you go in the most likely, just let's say for in uh hypothesising for a minute that it is um uh some sort of deliberate attack, uh the most likely one would probably be, you know, a RAN linked uh group, whether that's a proxy group or whether it's more care you know, directed. Then it could be uh a jihadist group, um, potentially and and also but I I think lower on the spectrum uh Russian sabotage or an attempt, but that is been mainly targeted as we know across Europe over the summer with an increasing amount of attacks on those supplying Ukraine, um, rather than going straight after what would be seen as an American strategic asset really, uh, which would be highly escalatory.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
What exactly happened with the explosives found near RAF Fairford?
0:01–1:00
2
How did the farmer’s 999 call influence the investigation?
1:00–2:14
3
What evidence suggests a rapid intelligence‑led response by authorities?
2:14–3:58
4
Which terrorist groups or state actors are being considered as possible perpetrators?
3:58–5:27
5
Why is it difficult to determine whether this was a genuine terror plot or a protest?
5:27–6:45
6
How are UK counter‑terrorism police and intelligence services handling the case?
6:45–8:06
7
What does this incident reveal about the broader security threat to Europe?
8:06–9:46