US and Iran inch closer to peace deal
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What recent developments indicate a US-Iran peace deal is close?
Next, though, there is renewed speculation that a deal between the US and Iran is once again close. Initial negotiations focused on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the easing of the US blockade. But it was unclear whether there was any agreement about the disposal of enriched uranium by Iran. For the latest, I'm joined now by Patrick Winter, diplomatic editor with The Guardian. Patrick, good morning to you. We have been here before with rumours of a deal being close. What is your read of the latest situation?
I do think this time we're pretty close to the endgame. There has been lots of moments when Donald Trump, partly to manipulate the markets, has sort of suggested a deal is very near. But I think both sides acknowledge a framework is close and why... It's close. It's because the deal will be quite limited in the sense it will be about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which is this waterway, which is critical to the flow of oil and gas and other critical minerals. And if they can get a deal on that, then other issues which initially sparked the war, which is Iran's nuclear program, would then be discussed later down the road.
What are the main issues holding up the US-Iran agreement?
But there are lots of maybe three or four issues that are holding up a final agreement, including when Iranian assets will be released, whether Iran will be able to charge tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, and whether the Lebanese war, which has been between Hezbollah and Israel, will also be brought to a halt. So those are some of the issues that still need to be resolved.
Yeah, the idea of Iran charging a toll for ships going through the Strait of Hormuz, if they got away with that, the situation would be, for Donald Trump, would be worse than it was before the war started, surely?
Of course it would. What the Iranians are doing, and they're quite clever negotiators, is that they're talking with Oman, which is the country to the south of the... The Strait of Hormuz, they obviously run its territories to the north. What they're discussing with Oman and they're saying it's an issue between them alone and doesn't involve America, which is obviously not true. But what they're saying is that they would not be charging a toll. They would be charging a fee for services. Obviously, those fees have not been charged in Oman. And the difference between a toll and the fee is that a toll would be compulsory and it would be as described, but whilst a fee for services would be... perhaps more tolerable.
But I don't think, as far as I understand it, I don't think most countries are going to tolerate a fee for services because they don't really trust Iran in that regard. And, you know, if there hasn't been a requirement to pay a fee in the past, why should there be now?
Okay. And in terms of the American blockade, that would presumably be fairly straightforward to lift, would it?
Yes, I mean, that's certainly part of the agreement. So the Iranian blockade, which is in effect in place, would be lifted. And at exactly the same time, the US blockade, which is on Iranian ports, would be lifted. And alongside that, the frozen Iranian assets would be released. And one of the arguments going on present is how many assets and to what value, because there's as much as 12 billion pounds of Sorry, not pounds in Qatar, for instance, that would be released. And that's an extraordinary thing for Iran to be able to achieve. I mean, they would therefore be reopening a strait that was previously open in return for the release of $12 billion. When, if you remember, 11 weeks ago, Donald Trump was saying the only solution to this would be Iran's unconditional surrender.
We're miles away from that. As it stands, if it ends up the deal that we're discussing at present, it's an ignominious defeat for America. because they didn't ultimately think through how they were going to win this war.
It is really quite extraordinary, Patrick. The regime is still in place. There appears to be no progress on the nuclear weapons side of the deal. And do we know, is Iran going to commit to stand down its proxies in various parts of the Middle East, which was another one of the Israeli and American demands?
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What recent developments indicate a US-Iran peace deal is close?
0:00–1:14
2
What are the main issues holding up the US-Iran agreement?
1:14–5:04
3
How might the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz impact global oil flow?
5:04–7:12
4
What are the implications of Iran's nuclear program in the negotiations?
7:12–11:12