Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Economic Insecurity, Political Division, and the Youth Vote Shaping the Future | Tom Bilyeu Show Live
12 Dec 2025
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another rousing edition of the Tom Bilyeu Show Live. I am joined by Drew. What's up, Drew? How we doing?
Happy morning.
Happy morning. Indeed. Mason is back. It's good to see you. Welcome. Take good care of the community today, if you would, good sir. Behind the camera, we have Eric. Is G there? No G. All right, Eric's flying solo. Let's see what happens, everybody.
And speaking of what's happening, so writing my most recent deep dive, which will be coming out next week, it really is about what happens to people when they feel economically insecure. How do they begin to act? And we don't calm down and tighten our belt.
We go into what the Nobel Prize winning economist, I don't know if he's an economist or a psychologist, anyway, Daniel Kahneman wrote about something he called the lost domain. And he said, when people go into the lost domain where they no longer believe that they're gonna be able to work their way out of a financial problem, Think of COVID, think of the Great Depression.
They don't go, okay, listen, gonna have to tighten my belt.
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Chapter 2: What psychological effects does economic insecurity have on individuals?
It's gonna take me a few years to work my way back out of this, but there's a known way to build fiscal responsibility and I'm just gonna buckle down and do it. That is not at all what people do. Once they click over into that loss domain, they build a new internal model of the world where risk is completely reevaluated and all people think about is can I get everything back in one move?
So if you've ever seen people at the roulette wheel playing poker and all of a sudden they just start gambling totally nonsensically. They cover this in the movie Molly's Game where there was one player always super disciplined. He realized that he got bluffed by a guy that doesn't even know how to play poker and he just goes full tilt, completely unhinged, just betting maniacally on every hand.
every time thinking, okay, I'm going to get it all back on this one. And then once people start doing that, it is a downward spiral of just epic proportions. And that's what happens to the human psychology. When we feel fiscally insecure, everything becomes unhinged gambling, but we do it in formal channels. So we'll do it in the stock market. We'll do it in Pokemon cards.
Chapter 3: How does Daniel Kahneman's theory relate to financial behavior?
Pokemon cards is interesting because first of all, I'm so into TCG, but it is, I have a growing hypothesis that the hotter Pokemon cards is as a stand-in for all of those other asset classes that are way out on the risk curve, that it is initially you think, oh, this is a good sign. It means that things are really humming in the economy.
But I think it is a very clear sign that people have become so convinced that they're in an only up phenomenon that they'll even go place these huge bets on something as ephemeral as a Pokemon card. So Pokemon cards have actually started to soften now, but TCG cards in general are still booming, which I think is a sign that we're sort of late stage bubble. We'll see.
Yeah. Like you said, we're tracking this story breaking right now. Thailand and Cambodia as fighting rages on. Trump intends to intervene and we're going to get to Trump's rally in Pennsylvania later. But as of right now, do you think that there will be a blowback that can impact America? I know we got troops in Venezuela. I know we're watching Russia and Ukraine pretty well. This.
conflict doesn't seem like it would impact us, but yet Trump is keen on intervening and stopping it. Is that just him being political?
Yes. If you think specifically about Cambodia and Thailand, this is not going to be something that has any major impact on us. It's not going to be something that has any major impact on the world. Neither of them control chip supply or anything like that that we predicate our entire modern economy on. So you look at China and Taiwan, Japan, like that,
like triangle is that should make everybody uneasy. First of all, Japan has been responsible effectively for the post financial collapse boom with the yen carry trade. So they've been propping up the global economy for a long time. So anything bad that happens to their economy is going to have global impact. They also hold a massive amount of US debt. So that's going to have an impact on the US.
Anything that happens to the US is going to have an impact on the rest of the world. So if you're focusing on Asia, that's where you need to be looking. Now, if you're looking at what's going on between Thailand and Cambodia, I don't think it's a nothing burger, but I think it's one of many, many, many things that show that the world is in an increasingly unstable position.
Now, to your earlier point, why is the world in an increasingly unstable position? It's because of debt and money printing. And so the one argument that everybody has made for a long time is, well, Tom, like all this money printing that the US is doing, it's not a big deal, bro. What are you worried about? Like everybody in the world is doing it.
Yeah, notice now that you're starting to see everybody fraying everywhere. Everywhere in the world is now in conflict. Yes, because unfortunately, you're playing a game of mathematics. And once you realize that capitalism really is a zero-sum game, you are battling for... economic resources, like I wanna get them, you wanna get them, I wanna try to outpace you to get them.
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Chapter 4: What role do speculative assets like Pokémon cards play in today's economy?
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There are a certain level of economics that are breaking what I think our founding fathers have thought about when we first invested. The one way I can kind of ground it is like, I think it was Rockefeller or Ford, one of those guys started public education and it wasn't the government intervention, but they needed factory workers.
So they then created the pipeline that then laid the foundation to become public education. So to this point of abundance and on the other side of robotics and AI, everything is going to be sunshine and rainbows. I do see that there is a possibility for that to happen, but I do feel like there is going to have to be a conversation about there's all this wealth that is now being generated.
It does need to be converted into infrastructure improvements to help us transition along the way. Because similar to the railroad, Yes, this is going to be a great positive, but somebody's going to have to actually pay the money to lay the track down.
So somebody's going to have to put the money down to get us from point A to point B. And I don't think the every man for himself now system that we have right now is going to facilitate that. And this is on the back of the Scott Galloway interview on Tuesday, which I know in a perfect world right now, our taxes just go into a black hole.
But in a perfect world with a government with a balanced budget, we do want some of the higher earners to invest into the future. So that way the next generation can be able to get on the, whether it's the property ladder, whether it's the career ladder, they have that positive future in order to reap the abundance and become self-sustaining economic units themselves.
Yes, all true. So the fascinating thing, though, is if you look at the railroads, for instance, some of the most important infrastructure that America ever laid, it was devastating for the investors. And there's almost certainly going to be something very similar that plays. It played out again in
the internet, and it will almost certainly play out again in AI, where the people that put all the upfront investment into the infrastructure, they end up not making money. They end up losing a lot of money. But then the people that build on the back of the infrastructure that got created, they do well.
One thing that I have a feeling I'm going to have to start campaigning for, though it's such a weird time to be talking about this because it's got a shelf life, but getting people to understand that what we have right now isn't capitalism. And so all the things when we blame capitalism, what we really mean is cronyism by the government. Yeah.
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Chapter 5: How are global conflicts interconnected with economic issues?
The fact that Ilhan Omar made $30 million in like two years once getting into Congress is the most insane shit I've ever heard. Now, hey, I haven't looked deeply, maybe she is the most gangster investor ever and she's just like got it like that. In which case, please make a course because I would like to learn from you.
But my gut instinct is that just isn't true and this is another case like Nancy Pelosi. This has that side of things like this is not a because I'm Somali thing. This is a yeah. When you're inside the government, you are a part of the political class. You know what's coming. You know that people need you to do something for them.
And so you just get into the tit for tat corruption bullshit that runs all of politics everywhere. Gain and retain power like it's just the game. So. trying to campaign to say capitalism is good, crony capitalism is bad, and we need to stop calling it capitalism, because it's just tricking people, socialism bad, free market good, and yes, it's got like a,
three to 10 year, just to give myself a lot of flexibility, time horizon. And then unless AI hits some sort of ceiling where it asymptotes and we're just not able to make progress, which I don't see any reason to believe that's true, it is just a foregone conclusion.
All right, back to our regularly scheduled programming. Trump was on the campaign trail yesterday and me and Tom were laughing before the show started of just some of the sound bites that were coming out of there. But speaking of Ihan Omar. I really can't, Ihan?
Ilhan. I can't believe that that's a president talking. This is so crazy.
It's nuts. So let's jump into this first clip.
Individuals from Somalia in the group, please raise your hand. That's for Minnesota, you know. That's called the great big Minnesota scam with one of the dumbest governors ever in history. I love this Ilan Omar, whatever the hell her name is, with the little turban. The little turban.
It's not a turban.
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Chapter 6: How does history inform our understanding of current political divisions?
She's a very low IQ person.
I watched her speak the other day. She's definitely a low IQ person. Crockett. Oh, man. Oh, man. She's a very low IQ person.
Somebody said the other day, she's one of the leaders of the party. I said, you got to be kidding.
Now they're going to rely on Crockett. Crockett's going to bring them back.
That was a bit dramatic.
It's a great ad. But it's one of those things where I probably would have went in a different direction, but... Is this a way that, again, will Trump bury himself? Because I feel like Trump, he's at that point now where he's kind of like, that campaign rally from the shitholes to laughing to cursing to, it used to be like, okay, you caught me that one time, ha ha ha.
But now I feel like he's very comfortable. I feel like he's very casual. And sometimes having that power, you don't understand how certain things can slip. You can kind of help other people take advantage of that. So to the point of this ad, I think it is a good ad, but it's 100 percent based off of him going on the attack and her just flipping it back on him.
Is that some way that Democrats can then use this long term?
I'm just curious. For sure. So the thing that people have to understand about Trump is Trump is like a good headline. So Trump is always gonna be talked about. He's always gonna be an amazing leverage point because we live in the age of the attention economy and he is extraordinarily good at getting an emotional response out of people, positive or negative.
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Chapter 7: What are the implications of AI on capitalism and job markets?
And then I feel like, wait a second, that's what you said when you were running and your last year has been the actual video that I'm watching. And the video that I'm watching does not deliver on the promises that you made. Like now that you're saying it again, I know this is just clickbait.
So he's going to have a problem where he's got to find a way to both be super engaging, get his base really excited, right? The things that he was doing there, back to his greatest hits, Shithole Country, doing the YMCA dance, all of that stuff is brilliant. His base absolutely loves it. And if he can pair that with some big wins by the midterms, then he's really got a shot.
So what could a big win look like for him? I really hate the idea of him sending stimmy checks, but if he sent stimmy checks, it'd be great for his ability to get reelected. So you might have that. Also, he's promising that he's got evidence that the 2020 election was stolen.
So if he can hit you with a double whammy where people feel it in their pocketbooks that, okay, the things that he's doing are working, because remember the vast, vast, vast, majority of people are never going to take the time to understand tariffs and whether they're good or bad, but they understand a $2,000 check in the mail. So it's like, what do you mean tariffs aren't working?
That's some bullshit. I just got a $2,000 check. You're dumb. I'm voting for more of the $2,000 checks, okay? So you will get that effect. Then if he's saying, listen, and let's say it's compelling, that there's very compelling evidence, I'm not saying there is, I'm just saying if he can present it, if he can present compelling evidence that
They really did try to steal the election or did steal the election in a meaningful way. Now he's got the one to punch. It's they illegally tried to keep me out of office. These guys are very, very bad people. Also, all the corruption is not going to help. And if it won't help the Democrats and if you've got.
For instance, if you're starting to feel housing prices soften because of immigration, like if that actually has a meaningful impact, now it's like, ooh, people are actually starting to feel it. And because you can cut through the noise, it's like, then they'll have a shot. If people don't feel it,
If they feel like for all of his bluster and all of his promises, like I just still can't make ends meet. This is terrible. I'm looking out of my future. I have massive anxiety. This AI thing is freaking me the fuck out. He's got a lot of talk about bringing manufacturing back to the US, but all it's done so far is make things more expensive. Like they're dead in the water.
Like it just won't play no matter how funny, no matter how entertaining for anybody that thinks that he is coded racist, then they love it, whatever. Like it won't matter at all if you don't solve the economic problem.
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