"Reform is Screwed"- Dan Hodges
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What is Dan Hodges’ assessment of the Reform Party’s prospects?
What is your assessment of reform?
They're screwed. The polls are overestimating reform's support. There is absolutely no way, in my view, it can get from where it is now to actually being potentially a party of government. There is now a clear perception within reform that Nigel Farage is coming to the end of his leadership.
So you think he will leave soon?
I do, yes. That the sanctions on Israeli settlement, his defence of welfare, is part of a broader strategy of choring up his left flank, and that with the split on the right, that will be enough to win him a majority. I am pretty certain that what Andy Burnham is currently doing is preparing for a snap general election at some point next year.
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Dan Hodges, welcome to trigonometry. Thank you. Uh before we get into the conversation, tell us a little bit about your background and your story and how have you come to be sitting here today with us.
Yeah, well I used to uh I used to work for the Labour Party. I mean I used to to be honest, I used to work for my mother in the she was a Labour MP, so worked in the worked for her for five years in the right the ninety seven election. Um then I went off, did the sort of the sort of the PR consultancy circuit for a bit, and then somehow, I'm not entirely sure how, stumbled into journalism and and political commentary, which is how I end up ended up here.
Yeah. And you're one of the people I see uh in the media the being very upbeat and positive about Andy Burnham, which is why it'd be interesting to for us to to chat with you. Is that y you're frowning a bit, is that an unfair Yeah no, no, no.
I think it's being upbeat. I mean I think I I mean I think last time we spoke, he w I think was before he became Prime Minister, wasn't he? I think Kirstar announced it.
It was very clear that he was about to be clear he was about to be. So it was clear as we've got to be able to do that. And we had you on with Julie Harley. And we had you on with Julia Highlight.
We had the discussion. And obviously I I at the time there were already predictions of imminent sort of doom and gloom and disaster for Andy Burnham. And I just sort of pose a little bit of a corrective saying I wasn't entirely sure that in the short term his premiership was going to collapse quite as precipitously as maybe Julia Julia thought of the time. And that's basically that's basically sort of my my analysis. I I I mean I was saying before, I I I that one of the things in relation to Andy Burnham is that the first Prime Minister who I know, who I kind of knew him properly before he became Prime Minister, which as I said, make uh we used to work together um at the House of Commons. And as I said, that has the benefit of making me feel sort of very old and also a a a great underachiever.
So there is a you know, I I I and I've been completely honest about it. As a result of that I quite like him. I hope he does well. Um so what's he like then? He's broadly what you see, actually. There's not a you know, there's no sort of great sort of hidden side to An to Andy. Um, I mean, a lot of people I know are sort of talking about, oh, you know, the the sort of the northern I'm I'm I'm from up north, sort of shtick is is start to gray. It's not Stick, it's who he it's who he actually who he actually is. Um
He really is a northerner who bangs on about being northern. That is the type
he is a really is he really is from up north. And that very much shapes his uh shapes his political his political outlook. He's he he he's amiable, he's someone you can have a chat with. But also, and I I think this is one of the misconceptions there's been a been about him. There's uh and I think we touched on that at the time, there was this whole narrative, oh wait till he comes into Westminster and he's gonna find out.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is Dan Hodges’ assessment of the Reform Party’s prospects?
0:02–17:23
2
How does Andy Burnham’s strategy aim to prepare for a snap election?
17:23–33:33
3
Why does Dan Hodges say the UK is heading toward a financial precipice?
33:33–47:16
4
What are the main arguments around immigration and the small‑boat crisis?
47:16–1:02:58
5
How does the discussion address protest groups and public‑order concerns?
1:02:58–1:18:27
6
Why does Hodges claim politicians lack the backbone to implement solutions?
1:18:27–1:32:08
7
What does the episode reveal about Reform’s internal strategy and leadership battles?
1:32:08–1:47:30
8
What does Hodges identify as the one big issue society isn’t talking about?
1:47:30–2:02:56
Speakers
3 identifiedMore from TRIGGERnometry
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