"They Didn't Think This Through" - Ex CIA Operator, Mike Baker

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TRIGGERnometry 1h 11m 4 speakers 8 chapters transcribed 5 months ago
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

Mike Baker 0:02
I'm not saying they don't deserve an ass kicking. I'm just saying that I can believe that this probably wasn't well thought through. They were probably a little intoxicated from the Venezuela experience.
Francis Foster 0:12
I don't mean to put too fine a term on it, but it's a massive up, isn't it?
Konstantin Kisin 0:18
there's been like incredible levels of support for the war from Trump's base. Yes. Is that going to last if this drags on?
Mike Baker 0:25
No. That support, even from the base, is not going to last if people start to think this thing's dragging on into the early summer.
Francis Foster 0:33
One of the issues that we haven't addressed is terrorism and global terrorism. And there's a very real threat now that Iran is going to launch a global wave of terror.
Mike Baker 0:43
My bigger concern is all the individuals out there, the lone wolf, who get triggered by this.
Konstantin Kisin 0:51
Mike Baker, welcome back to Trigonometry. Thank you very much. Thank you. Great to have you. An interesting time to have you, obviously. It seems that way.
Mike Baker 0:59
There's a lot going on. Yeah, there is a lot going on.
Konstantin Kisin 1:01
Before we get into what's going to happen, what is your analysis of how we got here?
Mike Baker 1:08
Well, we got here because for almost 50 years, the Iranian regime has kind of stuck to their guns. They've been remarkably consistent over that time. To be fair, they've only had two supreme leaders. Now maybe they've got a third. We don't know because no one's seen the new leader, Moshtaba. But after roughly 50 years of creating instability in the Middle East, and refusing to negotiate in good faith about their nuclear program, continuing to ramp up their missile program, and then finally slaughtering, yet again, but this time in more numbers, thousands of their own citizens during the last round of demonstrations. I think that was kind of it. That was the thing that put them over the top, along with the fact that they just refused to budge off their negotiating tactic, which was, we're not talking about anything other than a
Mike Baker 2:06
the small element of their nuclear program.
Konstantin Kisin 2:10
Were they not willing to, like, I don't know what the technical term is, but basically to merge the uranium so that it was at a low enrichment level?
Mike Baker 2:19
Did they not say that- They talked about, and this is where it becomes difficult, right? Because there's this perception that intelligence is like the movies or the beach books, right? It's all this or it's all that, right? The reality is with Iran, it's been a very heavy lift over all these years. to understand with clarity what is going on there within their programs, particularly their missile and their nuclear programs. What they were talking about was taking that 60% enriched uranium. And there is no peaceful civilian purpose for 60% enriched uranium. There just isn't. And so they were talking about, well, we could reduce that down to 20%. The problem is with the enrichment process, getting to 60%
Mike Baker 3:03
getting to 20% even. You've done most of the heavy lift. Moving it on to 90% or thereabouts where it's considered weapons grade, that's the speediest part. So 5%, 4%, if there was intelligence that said all these years that's all they had because they keep claiming that they've had a civilian peaceful purpose for this, then... I think things would have been different at this point. But people talk about, well, my god, the Trump administration, they started this conflict during the middle of negotiations. Reality was, it was negotiations in name only. There was no real serious effort, much like they've done in the past. They were just looking to buy time.

What insights does Mike Baker offer on the Iranian regime's stability?

Konstantin Kisin 3:44
And the question is now whether regime change was ever realistic or going to happen, right? What's your assessment of this? Because we had a bunch of people over the course of the last week on the show. And, you know, some of the arguments have been put forward is like regime change isn't going to work and never was going to work. And therefore, this is a big mistake.
Mike Baker 4:08
Well, toppling a regime, any regime, by air operations only, that's a low percentage shot. So lots of things can be true at the same time. Personally, I can think that it's about time that this regime

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