Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
I'm not saying they don't deserve an ass kicking. I'm just saying that I can believe that this probably wasn't well thought through. They were probably a little intoxicated from the Venezuela experience.
I don't mean to put too fine a term on it, but it's a massive up, isn't it?
there's been like incredible levels of support for the war from Trump's base. Yes. Is that going to last if this drags on?
No. That support, even from the base, is not going to last if people start to think this thing's dragging on into the early summer.
One of the issues that we haven't addressed is terrorism and global terrorism. And there's a very real threat now that Iran is going to launch a global wave of terror.
My bigger concern is all the individuals out there, the lone wolf, who get triggered by this.
Mike Baker, welcome back to Trigonometry. Thank you very much. Thank you. Great to have you. An interesting time to have you, obviously. It seems that way.
There's a lot going on. Yeah, there is a lot going on.
Before we get into what's going to happen, what is your analysis of how we got here?
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Chapter 2: What insights does Mike Baker offer on the Iranian regime's stability?
And the question is now whether regime change was ever realistic or going to happen, right? What's your assessment of this? Because we had a bunch of people over the course of the last week on the show. And, you know, some of the arguments have been put forward is like regime change isn't going to work and never was going to work. And therefore, this is a big mistake.
Well, toppling a regime, any regime, by air operations only, that's a low percentage shot. So lots of things can be true at the same time. Personally, I can think that it's about time that this regime
leaves the planet and gives the people of Iran a better future, some form of government that could do that, I can believe that you're never going to get long-term peace and stability in the Middle East as long as this particular regime exists. Because their stated objective constantly has been one thing, the destruction of Israel. They built their proxy network for that purpose.
Proxies all have the same objective. Frankly, most of the regional actors, we're starting to see that now, would much rather see this regime go. I can believe all of that. But at the same time, I can believe that this probably wasn't well thought through. Right. And that if you've watched this, I had a good friend who was one of the hostages during the takeover, when the Shah fell.
If you've watched this regime for all these years, it's not hard to understand where they are now, right? You watched them over the years build a system between the clerical authority, the political authority, however you want to refer to it, and the military and the IRGC that was very robust, could withstand something like this over the years. So you've got a commander in the IRGC.
Well, now they've got three others in line who they know will take that person's place if something happens to them. This is how they've developed this over the years. I'm just, you know, I think that perhaps, I'm not saying they don't deserve an ass kicking. I'm just saying that I think there were people who thought this was going to be easier.
than than it was and that's surprising i think there were people who didn't see that the straight up core moves would become the thing right the it's the only leverage point they've really got right and so to think that somehow straight up core moves wouldn't become uh you know closed in a sense not officially closed but it's closed for all intents and purposes um that's to me is would be i'd like to think everyone's thought this through i guess is what i'm saying
Doesn't appear that way because there still seem to be some people in Washington surprised that, oh my God, you know, what do you mean we've shut down the flow of 20% of the world's oil, LNG, you know, along with everything else that goes through the strait. So that's what I mean by I'm not sure that this was completely well thought through.
And how is that possible? You're like, you're ex-CIA. I mean, the United States has the biggest intelligence operation in the world, the biggest military in the world, the most military planners in the world.
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Chapter 3: How has U.S. foreign policy impacted the current conflict with Iran?
Just talk a little bit what it actually means for the global economy if it continues with the shutdown, or if Iran continues with the shutdown, I should say.
Yeah, and it doesn't take much. That's the thing, right? Because what you're doing is you're impacting perception, right?
If you convince the insuring businesses out there, the insurance companies, the shipping industry, that it's just not worth that effort to haul that tanker through there, then they've won, even if all they've done is hit maybe a dozen and a half vessels over all this period of time. It doesn't take much at all. closing what's at one fifth or so of oil flows through the street.
Everybody's been talking about that. Now we're all experts on this. But also LNG, right, is an important aspect of this for Europe, right, in particular, for Asia. Explain what LNG is. Liquidified natural gas. Okay. So, and then all the other things that go through there, fertilizers, right, for food production.
Well, 50% of the world's traded fertilizer goes through there. This is me being an expert now. Yeah, look at you. I've been doing the reading. And helium, which we use for cooling microchip fabrication facilities. This is real impact.
It's a real significant impact. People can feel it. In the US, for example, people see it at the pump. That's the first place they see it, which is why suddenly the Strait became so important. Because in the US, they have midterm elections coming up in November. There's no easier way to get your ass kicked in an election than to be responsible for spiraling gas prices at the fuel pump.
So that's what it comes down to, you know, politics. So now the focus is on how do we prevent that? Again, you would argue that perhaps that would have been...
here in this playbook that you'd pull out as soon as the bomb started dropping because you knew that's where the iranians would go because they can't match the us and israel toe-to-toe for military capabilities so uh yeah it's it is um likely that the us is going to try to figure out a way to negotiate a settlement if they can figure out who to talk to
so that they don't have to begin the process of escorting tankers and ships through the Strait. And so that they don't have to think about taking Karg Island, which is responsible for the Iranians anyway, for kicking nine out of 10 barrels of oil out of the country. So that's a very important site for them. They don't want to do that.
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Chapter 4: What are the implications of Iran's nuclear ambitions for global security?
I think they'll capitulate because of politics, because of the midterm election. And because then they don't want it down, looking down the road. I will say that in the US, people don't tend to have a long-term vision in politics, right? They're looking at whatever election is right in front of them. But there will be some looking at 2028 in the White House. So this is being played out.
from that lens, right? I don't think you're going to see, again, I don't think you're going to see a prolonged effort here. I think all this talk you're hearing from the White House about, you know, having these negotiations, part of that is kind of the stuff that Trump does, right? And never, I don't think anyway, you should never take The president literally. Right. But people do.
And it drives him crazy because they take him literally. He's like, no, no, no, no. He just don't hit the wall sometimes to see what sticks. Right. So origins is a tri-state property developer. Right. That's what he does. You know, you punch somebody in the nose, you get punched back at the wall. You see what sticks. Go that route. Come up with a deal. Very transactional.
So I think they're trying to figure out, but again, this problem is that the IRGC, the Revolutionary Guard Corps, right, has found themselves where they wanna be, which is in a more, you know, direct command role. I think the clerics have realized that perhaps that they're taking a back seat, but they'll continue the optic of running the show, you know, and the politicians,
You know, who knows, right? I mean, now they're talking about the Speaker of the Parliament being the guy that maybe they're talking to. And he's saying, nobody's talking to me. We're not having any of these discussions, which shouldn't be a surprise. If you're having discussions, maybe you prefer people not to think you are, right? So I get that.
If there's something going on behind the scenes, I don't know.
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Chapter 5: How does terrorism play a role in the current geopolitical landscape?
But I do think they're going to be desperate to try to make that happen, because you're right. Otherwise, down the road, the only So far, the only country that's really not worried about this in a big way is China. They're the only ones getting oil out of the Strait. Almost all those tankers that are going through with Iranian oil are going to China.
And once again, they're fairly delighted that this has preoccupied the US, gives them a really good look at our military capabilities and the hardware and where they're lacking in terms of their modernization. So nothing happens in a bubble, right? Everything's connected. So that's why I appear to be rambling.
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Which is, you're not rambling at all. Because what we're dealing with here, effectively, is unknowns. And then you see how America bombed, not America, sorry, Iran bombed the gas field of Ras Al-Fan. And you go, they're responsible, I think, for around 15% of all the world's gas. And you're going, I mean... If it wants to, Iran can literally plunge us into a global economy.
If it just decides to go- Global recession. Sorry, yeah, global recession. Apologies. It can plunge us into a global recession if it just wants to go all in.
If it, you know, and who knows? Maybe, I guess, I would hope that's one of the scenarios they've mapped out, which is that what if they consider this an existential threat, then maybe they just say, let's see what happens. And they, you know, I mean, they've already kind of, in a way, done that, right?
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Chapter 6: What are the potential economic consequences of the conflict for Europe?
Which obviously are key to all this air assault operations, gotta be able to refuel. The fact that you're getting those Marines on target you have to imagine there's a contingency plan likely for an assault on Karg Island. Now, again, I think they're gonna do everything possible to try to avoid that and declare a big win, right? And then back out of this thing.
And whether that happens or not, Iran may have a say in whether that happens or not. But if you put boots on the ground in Karg Island, doesn't take much. The Iranian regime may decide, OK, well, we're not going after the Saudis. We're not going after UAE.
Because those players, not just them, but the other players also, they're very close to pushing their chips into the center of the table and saying, that's it. We're going from a defensive posture to an offensive posture. So they may stop short of that, but they will definitely target US military on Karg Island. And you could almost piss on Karg Island from the shoreline, right?
I mean, you're not talking about a massive complex issue. They just have to be successful a handful of times
then you've got the issue of the u.s and the population which is already still so a lot of people have forgotten it but there's still a lot of folks fatigued from the global war on terror so you start losing more personnel because now we're in something that doesn't look anything like what they were told it was going to be at the outset yeah now now you've got a problem and the iranian regime they're not stupid right a lot of them are dead but the ones that are living are not stupid they will have
thought this through.
Right. One thing I want to talk about, Mike, which we haven't addressed yet, is you talked about the US allies in the region. One of them is Israel. And just for people who may be coming to this fresh who don't know our backstory with it, after October 7th, we really didn't comment very much on Israel and that situation for about a year.
The only thing we've ever really said, we've interviewed people who are very pro-Israel, very pro-Palestine, somewhere in the middle, everybody. And where we came down on it, among other things, is kind of the one thing we've always said about Israel. We don't want to be hypocrites and be like, oh, look how terrible what they're doing in Gaza is.
Because I know if our country had been attacked in the way that they were in October 7th, we would have bombed the shit out of anyone who stood next to anyone who walked the dog of anyone who had anything to do with it. That's a fact. And the dog. And the dog, right? And we wouldn't have given a shit about any of it.
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Chapter 7: How does the U.S. political climate affect military decisions regarding Iran?
Why do they feel as if they need to do this? There's some moral obligation or there's some desire to spread democracy or whatever the reason may be. And so, you know, again, staying away from this whole idea of, you know, Israel and what their, their intention, I think here is, you know,
is not to not to bring this to a close in the same way that that uh the us is looking to do right they're not facing the same or or calculating this the same way right and so i think what we're seeing is is netanyahu and he's always had his distract his detractors inside israel right so that's nothing new right there's there's a large contingent there in israel that thinks like god you know if we could just get rid of nanyahu we'll all live in peace somehow um and i you know so i i uh
putting israeli politics aside because i'm definitely not qualified to talk about it from a military perspective from an operational perspective right they seem to have done this they've pushed their chips and said we are using this as an opportunity because if we don't if we don't get to a point again i don't know that they're thinking regime change there i think they're a little bit too pragmatic for that you know but i think they're thinking we have to be comfortable with the
with the amount of damage we've done to the Iranian military capabilities, particularly the missile program. They've been more worried about the missile program for years than they have been about the nuclear program. Then, and also with their proxies, particularly Hezbollah, right? I think that's where they want to be. They want to be comfortable enough.
And they've got their intelligence in that region tends to be better than US intelligence, right? I mean, again, because of proximity and years of having to do this and their abilities of working within that environment. So you're right. And you can see these different agendas now.
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Chapter 8: What role does public perception play in the U.S. support for military action?
And they're diverging. And then you've got the other part of it, which is what are the Gulf states think? What are the Saudis think? And there's some interesting reporting, whether it's accurate or not. Again, you have to kind of balance it out and say, well, let's see if it gets corroborated here somehow. But, you know, with MBS, with the head of Saudi talking about staying in the fight. Right.
He's urging supposedly the White House to not stop.
right because most of those those folks out there know that if you leave the regime in place at some point they're gonna have to do this over someone's gonna have to do this over again right because it's not as if they're going to give up right if the theocracy stays in place it's not like they're going to have a i was about to say come to jesus moment but guess that's not happening that seems unlikely that seems unlikely but um
You know, so they're going to maintain their objectives. It's just going to be much harder for them. And like I said, the can's been kicked much further down the road. So maybe now instead of, you know, a couple years of a window, you know, now they're looking at 10 years, 15 years to rebuild and get to a point where then it has to happen again. But it will have to happen again.
don't think they're changing their stripes if they stay in place and in fact some would argue they now have a much stronger incentive to get a nuke an actual nuke before this they were enriching uranium now they actually have an incentive to build a bomb and test it so we know they have a bomb as quickly as possible so this can't happen again right right can we stop that is it it's possible to stop it do we have the the will or the uh the uh
I mean, we have the ability, I think.
Sure of invading the whole country with two million men. Yeah, exactly. Can we stop it in another way?
I think, yes. I think they did not, they definitely didn't obliterate the president. Again, don't take the president literally when he says we obliterated it. No, you didn't. And of course, it came back to bite him in the ass, right? Well, if you'd obliterated it, we wouldn't be having this war now. Right.
I mean, go after the missile program, maybe, but we wouldn't be still talking about it in the towns and the other facilities. So... but i do think that they they could but it you know never say never right you never get to a zero risk in any of this right so there's there's always that slight chance that i mean nobody really has solid intel on where the enriched uranium is
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