Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
An unfortunate thing for Britain is that almost every disaster that happened over the last 25 years hit Britain full on.
Chapter 2: Why is everything getting more expensive?
Inflation exploded around the world, largely due to all of the lockdown. Basically, the global economy shut down in March 2020. Now we've got the Strait of Hormuz, and once again, Britain is taking the brunt of it. The issue is that even if it opened up tomorrow, those problems are still kind of in the pipeline.
It could be a decade before all of this actually gets sorted out till we're back to the normal levels of production.
Chapter 3: What impact did debt and inflation from lockdowns have?
After a while, people are going to get angry, Patrick.
Oh, I think people are already angry.
Patrick Boyle, welcome to Trigonometry. Thank you. It's very exciting to be here. Well, it's great to have you. We both have been really enjoying your content. You're on YouTube. You break down complicated economic and geopolitical things with great analysis. I've really enjoyed it.
And before we get into the global economy, why everything's getting so expensive, oil prices, the war in Iran, all of this other stuff, tell us a little bit about who you actually are and how you've come to be here.
Chapter 4: Why can't young people afford homes in Britain?
Yes, so I'm from Ireland. I teach at two universities here in the UK, KCL and Queen Mary. I've worked for about 20 years in the financial industry in sort of the United States and then in London, ran a quantitative sort of derivatives trading hedge fund for quite a while. And now I continue to teach and I have a YouTube channel that was sort of...
you know one of those side sort of covert project kind of things when you've nothing else to do um you know originally just putting up content for my students and then it suddenly grew into what it is today so well right everything else is now the side gig because your channel is absolutely crushing it which is why it's great to have you listen let's get straight into it i mean both francis and i have had various experiences just on a human day-to-day level of
either ourselves going into supermarkets or talking to people who are less well off than us as well. And it just seems like things are getting so much more expensive so quickly.
Chapter 5: How is the housing crisis contributing to economic struggles?
And I look at the headline inflation figures and I just don't think they're true anymore.
Well, no, there is just that funny feeling where I remember a few years ago, you'd see the prices of stuff going up and you'd be like, well, I'm not paying that for that. And then after a while, you just kind of go, just don't look at the price. Do you want it or not? Because that's what it costs.
And yeah, you know, we've seen, I mean, inflation exploded around the world largely due to all of the lockdown. Basically, the global economy shut down in March 2020, right? And
Chapter 6: What factors are making Britain poorer?
governments around the world all, you know, there was sort of this choice of you can let everything tank. And, you know, there's an argument, you know, a very free markets argument for that.
Chapter 7: How do tax and rent control policies make the situation worse?
But the problem is that, you know, can those things be rebuilt in an orderly manner is sort of the question. In most of the Western world and really almost everywhere, there was a decision made that was essentially to leap across that huge hole in the economy. And so, you know, there's lots of people and, you know, they didn't lose their jobs because of various bailouts.
You know, employers were given in the United States sort of PPP loans or all sorts of things, you know, stimulus checks and so on. And that's really expensive. You know, like it's, you know, it was kind of a year and a half, two years worth of
Chapter 8: What are the implications of the Iran conflict on global supply and oil prices?
you know largely dead economy and so we leap across that and then there's massive inflation and it's really just that we have to pay the bill for what happened you know like you you can't You know, you can't ignore the fact that everyone got paid for a couple of years when economic activity was a lot lower than it normally would have been.
Well, but we're also not paying the bill, are we?
Well, you know, it's on the credit card is really what's happened, you know. So, I mean, and that's even the thing that, you know, it often makes me laugh when people say to me, about cutting taxes. And they go, oh, well, the cut in taxes is great. And it's like, well, the thing is that the tax really happens when the government spends the money. Once the money's been spent, it's been spent.
And now we're either going to pay what had been taxed today, or we're going to borrow the money and have to pay for it in the future. And then there's even, you know, there's sort of interest rate arguments around that because, you know, especially a couple of years ago when interest rates were almost zero, like actually, you know, should we borrow the money?
Like kind of at 0% interest, maybe we should. Like maybe the economy can outgrow the cost of the debt. But now as interest rates are coming up, and of course, you know, interest rates and inflation relate to each other, you know, you end up with a situation where,
We're looking like around the world, like pretty much every developed country has debt as a percentage of GDP is the highest it's ever been, you know, and prior peaks occurred. during wartime, basically. And it's funny. I was teaching a class earlier today to my students, a kind of financial history thing. And we were looking at the South Sea bubble.
And I have a chart of government debt as a percentage of GDP. And it was really out of control in the 1740s, because it was 20% of GDP. We're at 100% today, and above 100% in many parts of the world.
and you know politicians never want to you they never want to deal with this you know they've got four years in office and the trick is to sort of kick the can down the road and hopefully blame the next guy and the problem is that that doesn't really work for the citizens of the country and it works the worst for the youngest people because
Now we've got, especially with higher interest rates, the interest just being paid on the debt is a big problem. And of course, the younger you are, the bigger a problem it is, because it's you who's going to pay for it.
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