Bet on Anything, Everywhere, All at Once
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What are prediction markets and how did they originate?
NPR continues to follow the breaking news out of Iran. U.S. and Israeli forces launched combat operations yesterday. President Trump announced the airstrikes were targeting regime change in the country. We'll bring you much more tomorrow morning on Up First. And you can also hear the latest coverage on our national security podcast, Sources and Methods with Mayor Louise Kelly, or in the NPR app. I'm Aisha Roscoe, and this is the Sunday Story from Up First, where we go beyond the news of the day to bring you one big story. The recent Super Bowl was awash with betting, and while most people were betting on the game, TikTok user atcadenbooth had other plans.
I'm camping outside the Super Bowl stadium with this listening device for the next few days. Because you can bet on how long the national anthem will be, so I'm going to try to time the rehearsal and make money.
How do betting apps like Kalshi and Polymarket work?
When the TikTok influencer showed up outside the stadium to time the rehearsal, he expected lots of people to be there doing the same thing.
I thought I was going to show up here and there would be 500 people sitting outside. Everyone's saying it's so genius, but I really thought there'd be 500 people in lawn chairs all trying to make easy money.
Booth used the information he got from timing the rehearsal to place a bet on the length of the national anthem performance, and he won. These kind of niche bets are growing in popularity, especially on apps known as prediction markets, and the bets being placed on these apps go far beyond sports. People can bet on things like who will be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee, the weather in a number of cities, or even how long a government shutdown will last. NPR correspondent Bobby Allen has been covering this new way to place bets, and he joins me now. Hey, Bobby.
Hey, Aisha.
Okay, so, you know, look, I've never placed a bet on these sites.
Who are the typical users of prediction markets?
I really don't like losing money. Like, you know what I'm saying? Unless I'm getting something in return. But I know the two most popular sites are Kaoshi and Polymarket. And I've downloaded Kaoshi. Can you walk me through how it works?
Sure.
Sure. So pull up the CalShe app and within a couple clicks, you can connect this to your checking account. So you can directly put in money from your checking or savings account.
What types of bets can you place on these platforms?
And then you could start placing bets. You could see there's sports, there's mentions.
I see elections. Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for president? Who will win the 2028 U.S. presidential election? Gavin Newsom is at 21 percent. J.D. Vance at 24 percent. I see a lot of politics on his.
Are prediction markets considered gambling?
So let's zoom in on just one. So the State of the Union happened earlier this weekend. People were going on these apps and making all kinds of bets, you know, on how long it would be down to like the second, you know, what words Trump would say. So would he say fake news? Would he say hoax? Would he say windmill drill, baby drill? And, you know, traders were placing money on whether he would or not say these things. And then they stream the event live. And then it becomes this kind of like high stakes, edge of your seat, adrenaline propelled kind of situation where you're like, should I cash out now?
What regulations govern prediction markets and betting apps?
Should I wait? Should I cash out now? Is he going to say it? Isn't he going to say it? And the people who are into these, they're called mention markets on Calci and Polymarket do this all day. They get up at like 10 a.m. and they do it till three in the morning, going to press conferences around the world, trying to cash in on whether people are going to say or not say things.
So as you're watching the press conference, you could jump out or watching the State of the Union, you could jump out if you're like, I don't think he's going to say it. Does that save you money?
Exactly.
How do insider trading practices affect prediction markets?
So the odds are constantly moving depending on how the conversation is going. For instance, if President Trump starts talking about oil, the chance that he's going to say drill, baby, drill is going to go way up, right? Because it's related to that. So you see the odds move.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What are prediction markets and how did they originate?
0:00–0:54
2
How do betting apps like Kalshi and Polymarket work?
0:54–1:59
3
Who are the typical users of prediction markets?
1:59–2:28
4
What types of bets can you place on these platforms?
2:28–2:48
5
Are prediction markets considered gambling?
2:48–3:21
6
What regulations govern prediction markets and betting apps?
3:21–3:50
7
How do insider trading practices affect prediction markets?
3:50–4:34
8
What does the future hold for prediction markets in the U.S.?
4:34–26:56
Speakers
7 identifiedMore from Up First from NPR
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