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I’m not sure if it’s just me, but it feels like a strange time in UX right now. I’m noticing many layoffs in our field, budget cuts, and a decline in work for external suppliers. It seems we’re going through another shift in our industry, which tends to happen every few years due to technological advancements or economic factors.In this email, I’d like to share my thoughts and best guesses about what might be happening and what the future could hold.However, I want to begin by clarifying what I don’t believe is happening: I don’t think the user experience field is being replaced by AI.AI Is Not Making Our Jobs RedundantWhile AI may streamline processes and reduce job numbers in the field, I believe the risk of AI replacing you anytime soon is minimal.This is due to the current nature of AI. It excels in areas like data analysis and written language but remains weak in other domains, such as:Strategic planning.Emotional intelligence.Creative thinking.Fortunately, these are the three core skills essential for user experience design. Therefore, I see no reason to worry about the impact AI may have on our jobs. While AI will inevitably change how we work, it won't diminish the need for our roles.So, if AI isn't driving the changes I'm observing, what is? It could simply be economic and political factors.The Broader Economy May Be A FactorThere is a lot happening in the world right now that creates uncertainty. We have the war in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East, a cost of living crisis, and upcoming elections in the US. Additionally, the long-term effects of COVID have changed business operations and put significant economic pressure on governments.It's not surprising that organizations are looking to cut costs and are hesitant to start new initiatives. They are waiting to see how these issues unfold.However, we can't solely blame the broader economy. There is also issues specific to UX that are affecting the situation.The Honeymoon is OverTo begin with, we are witnessing the end of the honeymoon period in user experience design. For some time, user experience was the buzzword in business. Similar to digital transformation, senior management became aware of this discipline. Success stories from companies like Apple and Uber sparked a frenzy of investment in user experience.They were further seduced by statistics we all threw around like:Every dollar invested in UX results in a return of $100, representing a 9,900% ROI.Many of these companies did not prioritize user experience effectively. They either underinvested or had a culture that hindered genuine user-centric delivery. As we know, you can't just bolt on UX to an existing organization.As a result, it has often fallen short of management's expectations. Now, we see them starting to cut back, drawn in by the allure of the next big thing—AI.To complicate things further, this initial excitement, along with the maturing of the discipline, has led to another issue.The Maturity ProblemThe excitement around UX has attracted many people to the field, especially with the rise of UX bootcamps.Meanwhile, significant progress is being made in the discipline. We are discovering what works and what doesn’t. UX patterns and best practices are emerging, leading to fewer problems that need solving.Of course, every project has its nuances. However, we can achieve results faster than ever because we build on the solutions found by others in the past.These two factors—more professionals and fewer problems—have created an oversaturated market. At least that is my current working hypothesis.So, what comes next?What Comes NextWell, your guess is as good as mine. In the short term, we will probably see more of the same: more layoffs and more budget cuts. Unless the current economic and political uncertainty decreases, we are unlikely to see any improvements.However, it ultimately depends on how organizations choose to integrate UX in the long run. The importance of user experience is here to stay. Consumers now expect a good user experience, and that expectation will only increase. Bridget van Kranlingen from IBM consulting put it well when she said:"The last best experience that anyone has anywhere becomes the minimum expectation for the experience they want everywhere."The question is: how will organizations choose to deliver on it?As I see it, they have three options:They could recognize the importance of user experience and create strong, well-supported UX teams. While I believe some will take this approach, I doubt it will be the majority.They may abandon the idea and outsource everything to external suppliers. I think more will take this route, but it will come with challenges. This approach doesn't address the internal barriers to creating a great user experience. As a result, they will only achieve superficial improvements, mainly in user interfaces.They could democratize user experience by creating centers of excellence that promote best practices across the organization. These centers would empower others to become UX advocates. While this approach may work for some organizations, I don't see it becoming the mainstream solution.I believe most will adopt a hybrid approach. Organizations will likely have some in-house staff while also relying on outside resources for support.To make this work, organizations will need strong in-house UX leaders to tackle internal issues that undermines the user experience. That's why I'm focusing on this area. It has the potential for meaningful improvements that can deliver the largest return on investment for organizations.But what about you? What should you be doing?What Should You Do?I don’t think you need to worry too much. Yes, things may be tough for a while, but if you hang in there, they will stabilize.Newcomers to the sector are at the greatest risk. You may be forced to shift to related fields as job openings decrease.However, experienced UX designers can feel secure in their roles. You may work externally instead of in-house, but your job is safe.As for experienced UX leaders who have a track record for delivering results, the future looks bright. UX is here to stay. As long as you demonstrate your value, you should be fine.Demonstrating value is crucial for all of us. Now that the initial excitement has faded, we must show management that our work makes a real impact. We need to focus on delivering what matters to them, not just on user needs.For those who advocate for UX but don’t work directly in the field (I’m looking at you, marketers), we need your support now more than ever. You know that user experience is vital for delivering on your objectives. So, I would encourage you to keep promoting the importance of UX design. We need to ensure it isn’t seen as a failed experiment or reduced to making superficial changes on the website. If that happens, your job will become so much harder.Of course, these are just my opinions, and I could be completely wrong. I would really like to hear your thoughts on the future and any downturns you might be noticing.