Chapter 1: What does the latest CPI report indicate about inflation trends?
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis. Good afternoon. Today is Tuesday, January 12th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. Our top story so far, the CPI in the sweet spot. Core consumer prices rose 0.2% on the month in December, cooler than the 0.3% consensus and matching November's pace.
That left the core rate up 2.6% annually, just below the 2.7% forecast. Headline CPI rose 0.3% on the month and 2.7% year-on-year, in line with expectations on the month and a touch hot on the year, with shelter costs up 0.4%, the biggest driver.
TS Lombard chief economist Freya Beamish says the macro backdrop is probably in a sweet spot for now, with fiscal stimulus supporting growth while earlier wage cooling feeds through to inflation. But she warns that as demand stays strong and affordability is tackled by fiat rather than systemically through the Fed, the risk of upside inflation surprises rebuilds into 2026.
President Donald Trump seized on the slightly cooler corporate to again pressure Fed Chair Jay Powell, saying he should cut rates meaningfully or risk being too late.
Chapter 2: How is Trump influencing Fed policy with recent inflation data?
But markets still don't see the FOMC cutting until after Powell's term as chairman ends in May. In a rare coordinated move, global central bank officials issued a statement backing Powell and the Fed's independence. Signatories included Christine Lagarde, ECB, Andrew Bailey, BOE, Tiff Macklin, BOC, and Michelle Bullock, RBA.
They all called central bank independence a cornerstone of price, financial, and economic stability that must be preserved. Among active stocks, earnings season is officially upon us. JPMorgan Chase is higher after issuing fresh 2026 guidance, with its net interest income outlook topping consensus and expenses seen roughly in line.
Steve Booyens of Pearl Grey Equity & Research notes that strong trading activity in FX, fixed income, and rate hedging could continue into 2026, but softer consumer sentiment, faster mortgage prepayments, and weaker IBD fees remain risks. Delta Airlines is slightly lower after guiding 2026 EPS to range of $650 to $750, mid-point $7, versus $720 consensus.
And Intel and AMD are gaining after KeyBank upgraded both to overweight, saying the chipmakers have largely sold out of server CPUs for 2026 amid surging data center and AI demand. In other news of note, Denny's shareholders approved the restaurant's $620 million buyout by private equity firm Triartisan Capital Advisors, that's the owner of TGI Fridays and P.F.
Chapter 3: What insights did JPMorgan provide for its 2026 earnings outlook?
Chang's, along with Treville Capital and Yadav Enterprises, one of Denny's largest franchisees. Denny's opened in 1953 as a coffee shop before shifting to a 24-hour diner model and leaning on franchising as it expanded through the 60s and 70s. It spent a year inside larger corporate structures before finally trading under its own name on the NASDAQ in 1997.
In the 2000s and 2010s, management pushed an asset-light strategy, re-franchising locations and pitching the stock as a cash-generative, franchisor-heavy diner brand. But shares lost more than 75% from their 2019 pre-pandemic high as traffic struggled, ultimately prompting the board to explore strategic alternatives and accept the current buyout.
And in the Wall Street Research Corner, Wells Fargo issued a stark warning for cable operators, slapping sell ratings across the board. Analysts cut Charter Communications, Comcast, Altus' Optimum, and Cable One to underweight, and now expect the group to lose about 1 million residential broadband subscribers this year as fixed wireless and fiber scoop up essentially 100% of net broadband ads.
That's all for today's Wall Street Lunch. Look for links for stories in the show notes section. Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com.
Chapter 4: How are global central bankers responding to U.S. monetary policy?
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