Chapter 1: What earnings reports are expected from major companies this week?
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Brunch, our Sunday look-ahead to this week's market-moving events, along with the weekend's top news and analysis. Hello, today is Sunday, November 30th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. As investors return from Thanksgiving with heavier waistlines and lighter wallets, shopping remains a key theme, with Salesforce and a slate of retail names reporting earnings.
Salesforce is expected to post EPS of $2.86 on revenue of $10.27 billion when it reports Wednesday. Seeking Alpha analyst Luca Sacchi says the market is now fixated on whether growth can break a psychological threshold investors can't ignore. AI has flipped the narrative, he says. Instead of excitement, it's fueling doubts about CRM's moat and the long-term payoff of agent force.
But DM Insights points out that the stock trades at a historically low valuation, even below the S&P 500, and argues that its predictable model, AI tailwinds, and attractive risk-reward profile make it a buy. Also on the earnings calendar, MongoDB reports Monday, CrowdStrike, Marvel, and GitLab issue numbers Tuesday. Snowflake, Dollar Tree, and C3.ai weigh in on Wednesday with Salesforce.
Kroger, Ulta Beauty, Hewlett-Packard Enterprise, and Dollar General report Thursday. Victoria's Secret is up Friday.
Chapter 2: How did Black Friday online sales perform this year?
On the economic front, the week kicks off with Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell speaking at a panel discussion at Stanford. But the Fed is in its blackout period, so expect him to stick to the topic of the economic legacy of George Shultz. The markets are pricing in an 85% chance that the FOMC cuts by a quarter point on December 10th.
Chapter 3: What impact has ChatGPT had on consumer behavior in retail?
The odds are the highest since Powell's last press conference, which leaned hawkish. There will be a mix of old and new economic data again. Fed officials will get the core PCE inflation figures ahead of their decision. The catch is those figures are from September.
Fed officials and traders might get better insight from the preliminary Michigan sentiment figures for December, especially expected conditions. In the news this weekend, Adobe reported that consumers spent a record $11.8 billion online on Black Friday, up 9.1% year-over-year and ahead of expectations. Gaming console sales were strong. From 10 a.m.
to 2 p.m., shoppers spent $12.5 million every minute online.
Chapter 4: What are the upcoming economic indicators to watch this week?
Mobile once again dominated, generating 55.2% of sales. AI traffic to U.S. retail sites surged 805% from last year as consumers used generative AI to find deals and research products. The tools were used most for video games, appliances, electronics, toys, personal care items, and baby and toddler products. And speaking of invaluable AI helpers, ChatGPT is celebrating its third birthday today.
From the faint echoes of keystrokes in 2022 to the thunder of the AI trade today, here's how OpenAI has grown. 2022, ChatGPT hits 1 million users in five days, early valuations are about $20 billion, and the GPU demand narrative begins. In 2023, Microsoft invests $10 billion, OpenAI hits $30 billion of valuation, and Sam Altman is ousted and then reinstated in a dramatic governance showdown.
In 2024, model competition accelerates, valuation rises to about $90 billion, and enterprise monetization ramps up. And in 2025, AI becomes a daily infrastructure.
Chapter 5: What recent news influenced the rejection of the Swiss inheritance tax proposal?
OpenAI projects 220 million subscribers by 2030, and its valuation hits $500 billion in October. The agent economy is starting to take shape. And Swiss voters have decisively rejected a proposal to impose a 50% inheritance tax on the super-rich. More than 80% voted against the plan.
The measure, aimed at estates above 50 million Swiss francs and intended to fund climate initiatives, faced backlash from the federal government and business groups who warned it would undermine Switzerland's appeal as a stable financial hub.
And for income investors, Lockheed Martin goes ex-dividend on Monday, paying out on December 30th. McDonald's and Coca-Cola, a classic combo, also go ex-dividend on Monday and both pay out on December 15th. Goldman Sachs goes ex-dividend on Tuesday, paying out on December 30th. On Thursday, Home Depot and Qualcomm go ex-dividend, both paying out on December 18th.
On Friday, Waste Management goes ex-dividend with a December 19th payout date. Bank of America, BlackRock, and Union Pacific also go ex-dividend.
B of A pays out on December 26, BlackRock on December 23, and Union Pacific on December 30. That's all for today's Wall Street Brunch. Look for links to stories in the show notes section.
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Chapter 6: Which companies are going ex-dividend this week?
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