Chapter 1: Why did silver prices drop after a significant rally?
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis. Good afternoon. Today is Monday, December 29th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. Our top story so far, when the shoeshine boy starts giving you tips on precious metals, is it time to get out? It's been hi-ho silver all December, with the metal up about 33% for the month heading into today.
But the shine is coming off fast. Spot silver is down around 9%, reversing a roughly 5% overnight rally. Subutrade notes that a reversal this big has only happened twice before, most recently in 2011, when silver went on to fall 16% over the next two days.
This could be just end-of-the-year profit-taking after a 170% rally that has pushed silver to number three on the global asset market cap list, behind only gold and Nvidia. Or it could be a sign of too much retail froth.
Chapter 2: What impact do high silver prices have on the retail market?
Silver was a top business search term all weekend, and some money managers are now calling it a meme trade. Seeking Alpha analyst James Ford, who runs the pragmatic investor, says it's time to dollar-cost average out of silver. He argues the risk-award is unfavorable for both new longs and aggressive shorts, with CTAs driving price action.
If the move is detached from fundamentals, he warns that there's no clear ceiling and a lot of people have $100 silver in their sights, which could become self-fulfilling. Even so, he expects a substantial pullback, potentially as large as 50% in the next few months. Meanwhile, investors are looking at what surging metals means for retail.
High gold and silver prices tend to squeeze margins for mass market and mid-tier jewelers, while recyclers, scrap buyers, and pawn operators benefit as they buy metal from consumers. Luxury brands are less sensitive, but not immune to margin pressure.
Analysts also flag a short-term boost as retailers work through existing inventory at higher prices, followed by a potential drag when they have to restock. On Cygnet's last earnings call, CEO James Simanczyk said that whenever prices hit what looks like a ceiling, consumers often stay resilient because they recognize the residual value of what they're buying.
Chapter 3: How is Amazon positioned in the market for 2026?
Among active stocks, Amazon is Evercore ISI's top large-cap internet pick for 2026. Analyst Mark Mahaney cites renewed AWS momentum after Q3 growth hit its fastest pace at 11 quarters and, for the first time since 2022, outpaced Microsoft's Azure.
SoftBank Group agreed to acquire DigitalBridge, an alternative asset manager focused on digital and telecom infrastructure, in a deal valuing the company at about $4 billion, as SoftBank looks to scale next-gen AI infrastructure. And the pressure is rising on Lululemon Athletica's board.
Founder and second-largest shareholder Chip Wilson, who left the company in 2015, has launched a proxy fight nominating three director candidates and pushing for major changes, including at the top. And in other news of note, the CEOs of NVIDIA and AMD will kick off CES 2026 in Las Vegas next week, with keynotes focused on AI.
The show runs January 6th to 9th, with NVIDIA's Jensen Wang and AMD's Lisa Su set to present on Monday, January 5th. Wong is expected to spotlight data centers, physical AI, and robotics, while Su is likely to focus on advances in Ryzen CPUs and Radeon graphics for AI PCs and gaming. And toy stocks are lining up for a potential boost from a packed 2026 box office slate.
In the first half, family-focused releases include Disney's Toy Story 5 and The Mandalorian and Grogu, Universal's The Super Mario Galaxy movie, and Amazon MGM's Masters of the Universe.
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Chapter 4: What are the expectations for CES 2026 presentations?
In the second half, standouts include Sony's Spider-Man Brand New Day, Paramount Global's Paw Patrol 3, and Disney's Avengers Doomsday, all seen as strong toy drivers. Also on the schedule, Warner Bros. Discovery's Supergirl, Universal's Minions 3, Disney's Moana, Warner's Cat in the Hat and Angry Birds 3, and Sony's Jumanji 3.
Jefferies analyst Kylie Kohu expects Hasbro, Mattel, and Spinmaster to be among the key beneficiaries.
That's all for today's Wall Street Lunch. Look for links for stories in the show notes section. Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at SeekingAlpha.com. And for a full suite of news, analysis, ratings, and data on stocks and ETFs, go to SeekingAlpha.com.