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Chapter 1: What are the historical performances of St Kilda against Carlton?
Carlton and St. Kilda. So, Ross gave this to me. Red, white and black footy. In round seven, St. Kilda beat West Coast by 101 points. Back in 2004, St. Kilda beat West Coast by 101 points and the very next week played Carlton at Marvel and they beat them by 108 points. You've got to have a dream. That's right. You've got to have a dream. All right.
So we haven't done, I'm not sure St Kilda have been in our set of games yet this year. So give me a system check. What are you seeing in the Saints?
Well, it's interesting. And we did the same thing last year. And I don't know if it was last week or the week before when I was driving in, I heard Simo talking about St Kilda. And it's exactly as we discussed late last year where St Kilda's profile is really interesting. They are the AFL average.
So, um, and, and Simo mentioned like they're not number one or number two or even top four at anything, um, But they're also not bottom two or bottom four at anything else either. They're actually, and I'm going to bore you just for 30 seconds.
So their AFL average either right on it, one or two above or one or two below for things like inside 50s, time in possession, ground ball, post-clearance contested possession, marks inside 50. They're scoring 94 points per game. The AFL average is 90. So they're right on it. goals per inside 50, scores from stoppage, scores from turnover. And I could go on and on and on.
They're either right on the AFL average, one or two above or one or two below.
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Chapter 2: How does St Kilda compare to the AFL average in key statistics?
There are a few things that they are above the AFL average, but not quite top four. And that's things like kicks and marks, which that's their game style a little bit. Intercepts, they're pretty good. Scores from centre bounce, they're pretty good. They win a lot of free kicks. They're keeping the opposition scores to 85 per game. So that's better than the AFL average, which is pretty good.
They're defending back half ball movement pretty well, and their contested possession differential is above the AFL average. So exactly that. St. Kilda at the moment is probably where their position on the ladder they deserve to be. They are AFL average. So they're good at everything, but not necessarily great at anything. And I ask myself the question, does that matter?
Do you need to be great at something? to form an identity, your trademark, your go-to, or if you're Ross Lyon, is that where you're content, is that we're not terrible at anything, but we're not super at anything But there was a time, there was a time when, and I think Ross Lyon is a great coach and I've got to put that out there. I love Ross Lyon. I love watching his teams play.
I love his press conferences. He's so creative with the way that he coaches the game. But I think he would say too, if you're going to have success, you've got to typically have a really balanced game plan that has no weaknesses. So he would say that's what we've got. But also, too, there was a time when Ross Lyon coached teams that were excellent defensively. They were one or two every season.
They were really stingy. You could not score against them. Any week, every week, they would give up low scores. But I think what he has done, and I'm just guessing, but... it feels like he's had to give up something defensively to get more offense.
So we haven't really seen a shift in scores improving, but yeah, it just feels like at the moment his quest and the way that he's coaching now is he's looking for more offense and potentially that's coming at a slight expense of what their defensive numbers have traditionally been over the journey for Ross. But But that's what St Kilda fans are seeing at the moment.
They're seeing mid-table, mid-tier, and that's probably the results of where they're sort of sitting at the moment.
So can you see improvement?
Well, I am, yeah. And that's where I think it's positive for St Kilda and their fans is... So this year, as I mentioned before, they're scoring on average 94 points per game. Last year that was 80, and the year before that was 76. So we are seeing higher scores from St Kilda.
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Chapter 3: What strategies can St Kilda employ to beat Carlton?
But as I mentioned, Gerard, that's coming at the expense of their defensive numbers. So in 2024, they gave up 76 points per game. 2025, that rose to 90 points per game they were giving up. And this year, as I mentioned, 85. So... I think there are positives there. At the slight expense of what their defensive numbers are looking like, we're seeing better offense. But I really like their list.
I do. I think there's some positives there. Sinclair, Wilkie, Wanganee, Malira, Flanders, Hill, Garcia, Silvani, Philippou, Deconning, Owens, Marshall, Tarou, Clark, Caminiti. Just go on. There's a really good young list there. So I think there are some positive, but it's time to take the next step. It feels like this is a crunch game for them. They've just got to beat Carlton.
And I think we can then start to think, right, here we go. This is the St Kilda that Ross has been developing and evolving. And this talented young list is going to start to really evolve.
This is a bellwether game. I completely agree with that. For what they've done, the strategy they've taken, for what they've taken out of Carlton, don't be losing to the Blues. That's right. So that loads a lot into it. I reckon. Is it clear now that there's a template you need to beat Carlton?
Yeah, and I think that's where Ross is a great coach and he'll know, and the industry knows now, against Carlton, you've got to put speed on transition. You've got to attack quickly from turnover. You've got to use the corridor when possible. Keep speed on the game. Keep speed on the game against Carlton. And then you'll get an opportunity to isolate Carlton's defenders.
So if you move the ball fast before Carlton's defence can get set, they're the opportunities to expose them. And we know now the reality is Carlton are playing some great footy, but they can't sustain it for four quarters. So I'll say it again, put speed on the game and you can outwork and outrun Carlton and you'll find a way to beat them.
So that's, I think, what Ross Line will go into this game with. All right.
Carlton are right on the cusp of winning a game. Could Carlton find a way to win this?
Yeah, I'm still a believer in the Blues because they've played some great footy and they can win this game if they dominate clearances, which we've seen them do. If they can control territory, they've got a limit. As I mentioned, St. Kilda will be trying to put transition speed and score on this game. So they've got to limit that.
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Chapter 4: How has St Kilda's scoring changed over recent seasons?
When St Kilda, so I liked, Sydney went to West Coast, beat them by a hundred plus and got a whole thing, a whole lot of things set in their game. A few things that they'd been shown, they had deficiencies on, they clearly trained them across a buy and then they executed them and it actually didn't matter who the opposition was and they've been able to carry that on week to week.
This is, so people were debating what's the worth of St. Kilda's hundred point win over West Coast. I feel like this is the worth. Yeah. Whatever it is that they've been putting in place, Ross watches them really closely. He thought they put Caminiti into the future King role. So they changed their structure for the day and then they rehearsed it.
They fine tuned it and it delivered the result that it did. Now you bring that against a better opponent. Let's not overestimate what Carlton is, but certainly a better opponent than West Coast is. Can you carry those trends and patterns into the next game and execute again?
Yeah, that's the art of coaching. And I know we talk about it a lot. You talk about it all week with the other people that come on, you know, whether it's Simo or Ken Hinkley, you know, that's the challenge now is you come off a big win like that. You rely so much on your leadership group, standards, behaviors, execution, and it's not just turn up and it's automatic.
But the great sides over a sustained period of time, it does become automatic where when you turn up, you know exactly what you're going to get from your team. So it feels like St. Kilda is still learning that skill, that ability to be able to replicate their best every week and for four quarters. And as I said, Ross Lyon's a great coach. He's been around for a long time.
He will know how to get the best out of his players. And this should be a really physical pressure game if both sides get this right.
Which way are you leaning?
Just towards St Kilda. As I said, I like St Kilda, but they've just got to keep rolling with this. I'm going to go nine points for the Saints.
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