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Chapter 1: What is the current standing of St Kilda and GWS?
Sunday afternoon, St Kilda and the Giants. So the Giants at 10th and St Kilda at 12th. It's a reasonable extrapolation to say they are shooting for the same position. The overview, you just decided to just narrow this to a five-week block, Sando, didn't you?
Yeah, just having a look at both of these teams, I wasn't quite sure, to be honest. So what I did is I looked at their last five games and with a general sort of view of the season as well, and I watched the St Kilda Swans game and they did everything right, the Saints, and they were so heartbroken at the end of that game.
But what I've looked at, if I start with St Kilda, so first of all, I talked about the Crows being slow starters. St Kilda are red hot to start games. They've got the best data of any team in quarter one. So they've won 11 of their 13 first quarters this season, but they've only gone on to win five of those games that they've led at quarter time.
So it's not a fitness issue because they do actually finish pretty strong as well. They've won six of 13 firsts. fourth quarters, which is the same number as the Suns and the Bulldogs and the Giants and the Crows and Hawthorne, Collingwood. I mean, it's not that they can't finish games either.
They just don't have that ability at the moment, the Saints, to be able to play that great brand of footy for 120 minutes. So it feels like that'll come. It feels like we're, I know we're restless and ultimately we look at wins, losses, and every coach says that. But I reckon they've got a solid game plan. I think they've got a system that should be winning more games than what they have.
And potentially it's just this group haven't played long enough together to really win together yet. But yeah, there are some things that stand out for me in the last five, if you're the Saints.
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Chapter 2: What recent performance trends are seen in St Kilda's gameplay?
So they're inside 50s in the last five weeks. They're bottom five, only 51 per game. Um, they are efficient when they go inside forward 50, but they're only scoring 82 points per game in the last five weeks. So last five weeks, only 82 points. That's in the bottom third. So that's down there with Collingwood, West coast, North Melbourne, Richmond, Port Adelaide and Essendon.
So they've got to score more. Um, And if you want to drill a little bit deeper, it's they're not winning enough 1v1s ahead of the ball. So they're ranked 17th in winning offensive 1v1s in the last five weeks. So it's another common theme for St. Kilda during that time. Scoring from stoppage and turnover is slightly below the AFL average, but they're giving up big scores.
So I said they're scoring 82 points, which is the bottom third. They're conceding 98 points per game. So defensively, that's not a Ross Lyon traditional number defensively. Their opponents are averaging 400 disposals per game.
um that's only uh only richmond have conceded more disposals against in that last five week block and it correlates with conceding over 100 marks per game once again only richmond and the western bulldogs concede more but that doesn't tell the entire story sometimes when sides concede marks they might be lateral or backwards kicks but
But yeah, I think the biggest concern for Ross Lyon in the last month and a bit has been their conceding turnover scores against the second most in the AFL.
So that's a little bit of poor execution by foot, a bit of risky corridor use with inadequate support behind you defensively, and just a bit of lack of forward half pressure, I reckon, which is allowing the opposition to come easily out of their forward line. So...
So yeah, the positives in that last five weeks for St Kilda, they have the best clearance differential and the second best contested possession differential. So contest is great. They're just not scoring and they're conceding scores from turnover. So not scoring enough. and conceding too much. But contest and clearance is actually pretty good. And the Giants across five weeks?
Giants, their turnover game looks okay. So they are scoring from turnover. And they've always been a strong tackling team and consistently play that really good physical brand. They're top six for clearance differential and top five for contested possession differential. It's always been an Adam Kingsley priority. But scoring has been good, 104 points.
per week over the last five weeks but they're just not generating enough inside 50s that could be greater they're just um they're really efficient they're always been efficient going inside um forward 50 but but yeah i just feel like at the moment with the giants um they uh they go fast which we love um they change gears at different times in the game and they're still scoring from the back half which has always been a strength they run in numbers they run in pattern
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Chapter 3: How does St Kilda's scoring efficiency compare to other teams?
So this is their big challenge. So you take that disappointment, respond with a win. I like the Saints at Marvel. I'm going to tip them by eight points.