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Chapter 1: What is discussed at the start of this section?
It's Stuart Waitley. Thanks for listening to the podcast. In this episode, round 16 of the AFL season in sharp focus. The Eye of the Coach with Adam Simpson. The latest news with Sam Edmonds. Strategy 2026 with Brenton Sanderson. And Know Your History with Shannon Gill. You can get in touch at any time. Waitley at sen.com.au. Thanks for listening. Enjoy.
Thursday morning.
This is your town. This is your station. This is Waitley. Good morning. Chris Fagan set the terms for the remainder of the season more explicitly than anyone else within the game has been prepared to. You've got to finish top six to win it. Fagin is too far into dance around the reality.
The wildcard dynamic is perfect for dramatic effect and late season tension, but it has raised the bar for contending rather than lowered it. Fagin has lived two successful campaigns playing all four weeks of September. His teams have won the flag from 5th And third, there'll be no winning it from 7th through 10th, having to win five finals without the breather of the bye coming in.
Luke Beveridge has hinted at it. Chris Fagan just said it. It's especially pertinent coming from the coach of the two-time defending premier who begin the post-bye phase in 8th position. The Lions got the shortest possible break of 10 days across the bye and have consecutive Thursday night fixtures against Sydney and Geelong. You'd say they have to split those games to have the top six in sight.
The Lions will progressively get players back from injury in the coming weeks, but must avoid losing additional stock as has happened almost every week so far. They need continuity and they need momentum. And from eight and six to start racking up the wins. Should they win tonight on the seasonally adjusted ladder, once the buys are all complete, they'd return to the top six.
If they lose at home, the trip to Geelong takes on immense significance.
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Chapter 2: How does Chris Fagan set the terms for the remainder of the season?
The Lions are no stranger to playing near the edge of the cliff. It's what has made their premiership so commendable. How they present off the bye, well, that's going to tell us much. Can they rise heroically once again? Or is the cumulative toll too much to ask even of a champion team?
I still think of the top eight. I suppose I'm old fashioned like that. All I do know is if you want to be a chance to win it, you've got to finish top six. So I think that's the aim of most teams. And then it'll be a bit of a mystery as to how those teams from seventh through the 10th go come the finals time.
But sometimes it just depends on how you're going and your fitness and availability come that time. But it's added more conversation around what might happen at the end of the year, which can only be a good thing for the game.
You've got to finish top six to win it. I do love the idea. I'm old-fashioned. I still think about the eights. Strategy 2036 with Brenton Sanderson. Know your history with Shannon Gill at 11. Your thoughts right throughout the morning. The 40 Wings temper text is 0433 98 11 16. The difference is temper and the Belgravia apparel open line is 1300 736 736.
Belgravia apparel delivers elite football team wear solutions. We start every Thursday through the eye of the coach with Adam Simpson. Hello, Simo.
Morning, Gerard. Yeah, they've got Collingwood in the last round of the year at the G. I don't know what day or night, but it could come down to that last game where they finished sixth or seventh, maybe. He's declared it, but what happens if they do finish eighth? Is he saying they can't win it? Then you sell the delusion. But we know.
Yeah. Luke Beveridge hinted at the same thing without being quite explicit, and he's the only coach to win it from seventh. It's just this reality. No bye, five games, you're not winning it.
Unless you finish eighth and then you've got to say you are winning.
That's right.
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Chapter 3: What are the key strategies for Brisbane and Sydney?
In this back half of the year, if they're going to have a real tilt at it, I don't think it's just get the band back together.
And Sydney, you've got this lovely philosophy, don't be number one at one thing, be top four at everything. But what about being number one at 14 things?
Yeah. So we think Sydney's just this back half ball movement side, don't we? And if you take away the corridor, you can beat Sydney. Well, no one's done that. Maybe Hawthorne back, you know, back around three or four or wherever it was. So there's a bit more to them than just that. Like they're the number one front half scoring side. So, yeah. There's 14 number ones.
I won't go through them all, but inside 50 differential, disposals, handballs, forward half intercepts, scores from the forward half stoppages. A lot of them are offense, Gerard. So points scored in general. So this is the high scoring side and they do it from all areas of the ground. The number one corridor ball use side, which... is what attracts everyone to how to beat them.
Take away that corridor and we're halfway there sort of thing. But that's more of a Giants. Like when you play the Giants, that seems to be the only thing they're really, really good at. There's more depth to Sydney than that. But they're coming off a bye as well. So I've got no doubt you'll see something from Dean and his side. They can't just rest on their laurels. They're going to have to...
you know, change a little bit as well. So how do they finish top two is their goal. Um, you'd say they have to win the next month of footy, Gerard, if they go well, they're finishing top two, aren't they? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Like they would have to stumble massively.
Yeah. So it feels like they won't tweak as much as perhaps Brisbane may, but they're going to have to address a little bit if they take away the corridor. Is that half their game gone? I don't actually really believe in that, but that's the perception.
Yeah.
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Chapter 4: How do the midfield battles impact the game outcome?
I just don't know if they can. I mean, I suppose they can with fines. $20,000 fines. Yeah. Who's going to get the first one? We should ask anyone that. Who's the first person to get the 20 grand fine?
Give me the list for the most likely. I don't think it would go past one. You reckon Dimmerson? Well, it'll be, if anyone gets it, it'll be Damien Hardwick.
Oh.
Yeah, okay. It could be Josh Carr going rogue. Anyway, we'll find out. What about the media? Can they comment on it?
Well, all the more so that we have to now. Because if you're going to gag the people inside the game, then the public rigour has to remain. We can't all sit quietly while this standard is going on.
How many phone calls are you going to get from coaches? Okay. Well, we'll see what happens. But I think the coaches will be fine, and I think the players are the ones that will be more hesitant. But I could be reading the room wrong. Excellent.
Adam Simpson, the eye of the coach, to get us going every Thursday. The 40 Wings temper text is 0433 98 11 16. Find your personalised bedtime solution with our friendly neighbourhood sleep advisors. 40 Wings, serious about sleep. Whiteley on SEN. The eye of the coach with Adam Simpson to get us going on a Thursday.
He took us on the deep dive into Centre Square Craft last night, Simo, from the boring to the creative. And creative is in vogue at the moment. Yeah.
Give us a quick pricey. Yes. Well, if you've got a jumping Ruckman that's going to win the hit out more than 60% of the time, then you can start getting on the move more in the middle. So scoring's gone up. It's going to be the highest scoring source on record from the centre bounce scoring profile. So 27 points per game. happens from the middle now.
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Chapter 5: What are the key strategies for Sydney to win against Brisbane?
That's going to be imperative. I talked about corridor transition. That's what they are doing so well. And the other part is they're going to have to keep Brisbane under control at stoppage. So, yeah, get Heaney the ball in the front half, get the ball to Warner in outside space and keep Harris Andrews away from Curnow. They're probably the key elements. if Sydney are going to win tonight.
But yeah, that sort of denying Brisbane that controlled back half ball movement, they're pretty good at that, the Swans. They're really good at pressuring exits and keeping the game really dirty when they need to. So that's probably the checklist for me tonight.
It actually looks a little bit complicated from both sides, but a lot of things are going to have to go right for both teams if they're going to win this game. All right, so how does it mash up in your mind? Right, so this is what I predict. I'm going to expect tonight one of the great clearance battles.
Chapter 6: What are the predictions for the clearance battle in tonight's game?
So I talked about the mouthwatering midfield matchups tonight. I'm also expecting a really high transitional component to this game. So it's who can get on top around that part. I'm also expecting really strong pressure from both teams. both coaches will have these teams dialed right up in what's a really important game.
So then that looks really significant then is how is each team going to control the air? So those intercept marks become really important as well. So lowering your eyes, looking for opportunities to use those high half forwards. And I think the other part will be those loose ball gets is probably a good one to track tonight is for me, loose ball gets is an indicator of hunt and spread.
which both teams do really well. So it's who's going to win the loose ball stat tonight will potentially decide the winner. But I'm going to go to the Swans in a 1.3. I've been looking forward to this all week and twice as much now. Swans 1.3. This will be a ripping game tonight. I just got a feeling that this will be the game that ā
Brisbane will recapture their best form, but you've got to love the Sydney Swans, and both coming off the bye too. So they're going to be really well-prepared, both teams. But if I have to pick a winner, it would be the Swans in a nail-biter. Excellent set-up. To Thursday night footy, Brisbane and Sydney with many a story to tell. We'll move to Friday night, Hawthorne and the Giants.
Chapter 7: What are the offensive and defensive strengths of the Hawks and Giants?
Next... For City Power, Melbourne's weather, partly cloudy, a top of 14. Before bad weather hits, be prepared and sign up for SMS outage alerts all at citypower.com.au. Now, back to Whiteley. I mean, there's a part of me that looked at the weekend's game against Gold Coast and said, great, we won up there for the first time for over a decade.
We played some good footy. But there's a part of me that said, well, we kicked five goals from centre bounce and we lost the expected score.
So I don't think we're a complete product either. So we're in the process of having to make sure our best is on show often enough to make sure we can win the games we need to. And against the Giants, who taught us a bit of a lesson in opening round, that's a big test this week. Opening round is a difficult one.
The first game of any season, you get that unknown of having not played for quite a while at that level. And I think when we weren't ready for the Giants on that day and we did get what we deserved, we didn't deserve to win that game. It feels like a long time ago now. So I think both sides have been through some ups and downs through that period and we need to make sure our best foot's forward.
Is it about riding that wrong? Partially. But also we need to continue to win to be where we want to be later in the year.
Sam Mitchell, whose Hawks reconvene with the Giants Friday night of round 16.
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Chapter 8: How do special comments roles evolve in AFL commentary?
Brenton Sanderson with our strategy session. Give us your initial overview of the Hawks and the Giants. Yeah, well, they're pretty close from an offense point of view, Gerard. So I guess what I'm ā it feels like the narrative at the moment might be that people are just starting to write the Giants off, and this is a really important game for them. They've got to find a way to beat the Hawks.
But ā Their scoring profile is okay. So the Hawks are 97 points per game and Giants are 91 points per game. So they're still scoring. Points scored from turnover is in the Hawks' favour, 62 points per game, Giants 51 points per game. But what you'll find is that both teams, they're struggling to score from stoppage. So that's part of the profile from an offensive point of view.
that they're below the AFL averages. So I would say Hawks have the slight advantage this week in offense, but yeah, it's probably closer than what people think. It's... It's not as crucial. I think probably the issue for the Giants as much is their spread of goal kickers. So they're relying on Stringer, who they shouldn't be. There should be more avenues to goal than Stringer.
But so Stringer, Toby Green, Cadman, they're probably the ones that they're relying on so much. So if Hawthorne can shut those guys away. But yeah, they're still not out of the woods yet with the way that they're that they're hitting the scoreboard, but there's closeness there, which I'm not as concerned about for the Giants, if that made sense, what I just tried to explain. Defensively?
It's typically been a strength for both teams, but not of late. So both teams would prefer a better defensive ranking. Hawks concede 86 points per game, which is too much. Sam Mitchell would say that's too much. The Giants concede 91 points per game. And we know Kingsley, that's what he prides himself on. It's less than a goal a game difference.
But yeah, the Hawks concede less than the Giants do from turnover, which means they are slightly better set up behind the ball than the Giants. Giants concede more scores per inside 50 than Hawthorne at the moment. So I'd probably have to give the edge again to Hawthorne defensively.
So if you're marrying up offense and defense, I'm probably going to say the Hawks have the slight edge in both at the moment. What stands out in Hawthorne's losses that the Giants might be able to target? I touched on it just quickly before. I think what's consistent in the Giants, which they've got to get right this week against the Hawks. Hawks are struggling with scores from stoppage against.
So minus 25, minus 42, minus 28, minus 22. They're big numbers when you look at differential in stoppage scores against. So in what was a strength for the Giants, this has to be a focus this week. That's what they would have been practicing all week. Scores from stoppage, scores from stoppage. look for opportunities to go after a Hawks weakness.
But the frustrating part, I reckon, for Sam Mitchell is in their losses this year, Hawthorne, they're losing in different ways. It's not like one sort of thing really does stand out consistently. So against the Bulldogs and Fremantle, it was contested ball. But in other games, it's been front half scores, giving up defensive scores. So it's not one or two things that are really standing out.
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