Anti-Trump Sentiment vs. Policy: The Battle for the Midterms
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What are the key dynamics shaping the midterms?
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Hey, What's News listeners, it's Sunday, April 19th. I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal, and this is What's News Sunday, the show where we tackle the big questions about the biggest stories in the news. Less than 200 days out from the midterms, possible fractures are emerging within both major parties, as President Trump's criticisms of the Pope this week. risk alienating Catholic voters, and Representative Eric Swalwell's fall from grace forces a reckoning among the high-profile Democrats who endorsed his run for California governor. With voters in some key states now just weeks away from selecting who'll represent them in November, we'll look at how Democrats and Republicans are positioning themselves to emerge victorious in a wide-open battle for control of Congress.
Let's get right to it. Without further ado, I'd like to bring a pair of journal politics reporters into the mix today. Eliza Collins is with us from Arizona, and on the line from the Chicago area is John McCormick. John, let me start with you. Before we talk about specific party strategy or any specific names, you You've covered every big U.S. election going back to 2000. Midterms, as most people know, don't generally favor the party that's in the White House. Is that likely to be the case again here this year? And what's the overall narrative of this election 200 days out or so?
Well, first a couple stipulations, and it's going to sound like I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth, and I am. First, it's still about six and a half months until the general election, and that's a long time in American politics. At the same time, it's only about five months until early voting starts in some states. And here's a good statistic to drop at your next cocktail party when the midterms come up. Since World War II, the party holding the White House has gained U.S. House seats in just two elections, 1998 and 2002. So just the historical environment is challenging for Republicans. Add in a war, rising gas prices, a president prone to controversy, Democrats showing enthusiasm for voting and strength in some local and state contests that have already been held this year.
The general consensus among nonpartisan forecasters is that Democrats are likely to win the House. And control of the Senate, which looked very unlikely a year ago, is increasingly considered to be in play.
All right. So the Democrats making some inroads there. Eliza, you have just published a story looking at Bernie Sanders. He's not expected to run for president in 2028, but he is still very actively steering the direction of the Democratic Party, it seems.
Not as active as he's ever been and more popular, really. The party has moved to the left in many ways, including the establishment sort of elite Democrats. But where Sanders has had a lot of success is in supporting these progressive primary candidates who win their party primaries. and then go on to general elections that are considered not very competitive and win those seats. Sanders is now testing that in some of these key races, especially races, like John was saying, that could decide control of the Senate. And so we're seeing a clash between the Sanders progressive wing of the party and really the establishment Senate minority leader, Chuck Schumer, who have picked out more sort of moderate candidates that they feel like can win people who have won competitive races before.
For example, in Maine, Governor Janet Mills has won the state previously.
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