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WSJ What’s News

Can Regulators Get a Grip on Prediction Markets?

10 Jun 2026

Transcription

Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.

Chapter 1: What are the implications of Graham Platner's victory in Maine?

3.22 - 18.411 Luke Vargas

Democrat Graham Platner coasts to victory in Maine, teeing up a crucial Senate contest against Susan Collins. Plus, GM follows Ford with a pivot into energy storage. And regulators try to get a grip on prediction markets.

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18.391 - 29.391 Alexander Osipovich

The CFTC is going to take a pretty hard line on contracts on war, terrorism or assassination because the perverse incentives that those could create. It's Wednesday, June 10th.

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29.652 - 50.417 Luke Vargas

I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal. And here is the AM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories moving our world today. We begin in Maine, where Democrats have selected political newcomer Graham Platner as their nominee to take on Republican Senator Susan Collins in November.

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50.778 - 59.215 Graham Platner

If you believe, as I do, that we can change our politics and change our country, then you must also believe that people can change.

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60.393 - 60.974 Luke Vargas

Our D.C.

Chapter 2: How is GM pivoting towards energy storage?

61.034 - 71.572 Luke Vargas

coverage chief, Damian Palletta, says that Democratic leadership now needs to weigh whether Plattner's populist appeal outweighs controversies surrounding his social media posts and relationships with women.

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71.913 - 83.251 Unknown

Graham Plattner's victory Tuesday night in Maine is just the beginning for him. Now he has to take on Susan Collins, one of the most unbeatable Republicans on the planet. and campaigned against her for five months.

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83.411 - 98.213 Unknown

One of the big questions Democrats are gonna have to face is whether to pour a lot of money into Maine to help Plattner beat Collins, or they might decide that that money's better spent in places like Texas or Iowa, where they have other candidates they could try to lift and leapfrog over Republicans there.

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Chapter 3: What new rules are regulators proposing for prediction markets?

98.193 - 112.891 Unknown

Democrats need to pick up four seats on net to win control of the Senate. Usually that's a tall order, but this is the kind of year where anything can happen. If Democrats sense that it might be a wave election and they think they're going to win the House, there's maybe a scenario where they could sweep the Senate too.

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Chapter 4: What types of bets will the CFTC target in prediction markets?

113.291 - 122.783 Unknown

So Democrats are going to have to make a decision about where to really push their chips. And it's likely that Maine's going to be getting a lot of attention from both parties in the weeks and months to come.

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122.763 - 141.508 Luke Vargas

In other primary results, former Fox News host Steve Hilden has advanced to the general election battle to succeed California Governor Gavin Newsom in November. He'll face former Health and Human Services Secretary Democrat Javier Becerra. And Congresswoman Nancy Mace has been knocked out of the race to be South Carolina's next governor.

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142.009 - 161.573 Luke Vargas

The one-time rising star in the Republican Party came in fifth place, behind Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evatt, who was endorsed by President Trump. and State Attorney General Alan Wilson will face each other in a runoff later this month. Back in Washington, a $70 billion immigration enforcement bill is heading to President Trump's desk after its narrow passage in the House yesterday.

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162.094 - 173.087 Luke Vargas

The vote ends months of debate that began in January when Democrats refused to fund the Department of Homeland Security after the deaths of two American citizens in immigration enforcement operations in Minnesota.

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173.067 - 196.383 Luke Vargas

The bill heading to Trump's desk notably doesn't contain an almost $2 billion anti-weaponization fund to compensate those who claim they were mistreated by the government, which the Senate had included in their version of the bill passed last week. The U.S. has launched military strikes against Iran in retaliation for the downing of a U.S. Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz.

197.044 - 218.063 Luke Vargas

The strikes, which lasted for several hours, were directed by President Trump and were described as being carried out in self-defense. In retaliation, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a drone attack on the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. And in Taiwan... The island's army has for the first time fired U.S.

Chapter 5: How does the CFTC plan to regulate contracts related to war and terrorism?

218.144 - 237.094 Luke Vargas

missile launchers into waters directly facing China. The drills were part of a two-day military exercise the Taiwanese army said is aimed at making its training more realistic. The strategic site of the test has been regarded as a potential landing point for invading Chinese forces. China didn't immediately comment on the exercises.

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238.34 - 258.284 Luke Vargas

Coming up, regulators are proposing broad new rules to govern rapidly growing prediction markets. We've got that exclusive story and more after the break. In markets news, Trump regulators are proposing new rules for prediction markets.

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258.745 - 279.051 Luke Vargas

The proposals are due today from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and are designed to limit manipulation and rein in bets that are not in the public interest, even while keeping most of the booming market untouched. And with more, I'm joined by journal reporter Alexander Osipovich. Alex, first off, we should give credit to our colleague Dylan Tokar for landing this scoop.

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279.593 - 289.153 Luke Vargas

You know these prediction markets well. They've been such a point of public fascination and really red-hot, better enthusiasm. What stands out to you from what the CFTC is proposing here?

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289.133 - 315.225 Alexander Osipovich

Well, the CFTC is beginning to really wrestle with the question of what is okay to bet on in prediction markets and what is not. It is drawing some lines. The proposal, as we understand it, would basically allow sports betting via prediction markets But there are some caveats to that. For instance, there are certain types of mini sports betting contracts that would likely be off limits.

315.605 - 324.596 Alexander Osipovich

For instance, betting on player injuries, because you can just imagine that that would create perverse incentives if you let people bet on something like that.

324.977 - 330.784 Luke Vargas

Where, for instance, Alex, a pitcher could step on the mound and just bean someone and then, I don't know, win a bet.

330.832 - 350.055 Alexander Osipovich

Yes, the CFTC has indicated that it's uncomfortable with betting contracts on prediction markets where a very, very small number of people could influence the outcome. But the broader project of having CFTC-regulated federal sports bets on prediction markets seems like it will get a green light from these regulators.

350.035 - 361.699 Luke Vargas

And yet, Alex, we report that the commission wants to have the ability to block certain wagers, but it doesn't appear to actually be proposing any outright bans on certain types of contracts. How is this going to work in practice?

Chapter 6: What challenges does the CFTC face in regulating prediction markets?

361.73 - 384.679 Alexander Osipovich

the CFTC with this proposal coming today is going to take a pretty hard line on contracts on war, terrorism, or assassination, because again, the perverse incentives that those could create, and also the risk of information leakage. I mean, you can imagine a national security insider who knows about some sort of military operation wanting to go and bet on a war market.

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385.18 - 403.987 Alexander Osipovich

So that creates all sorts of interesting risks there. The CFTC is likely to take hard line against those, but mechanically the way this works is that any contract that a prediction market wants to list kind of comes up for review and the CFTC needs to essentially strike it down if it considers it against the public interest after carrying out a review.

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404.487 - 417.066 Alexander Osipovich

These proposals are sort of guidelines that the CFTC plans to follow in carrying out those reviews. They're hoping that this will be kind of a set of guideposts for prediction markets as they figure out what's kosher to list and what's not.

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417.215 - 432.355 Luke Vargas

Alex, you've seen how fast this prediction market has matured, and you know how fast a bet can be listed and fulfilled. It's a fast-paced environment. This is more regulation maybe than there was before what's being proposed, but is it enough?

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432.638 - 449.981 Alexander Osipovich

This space is moving very fast. Two years ago in the US, we did not have legal sports betting on prediction markets. We did not have legal election betting on prediction markets. Under the Trump administration, these prediction markets have basically felt empowered to list all sorts of things that before were considered kind of a gray area or even off limits.

450.822 - 465.214 Alexander Osipovich

Regulators are just now really beginning to grapple with this. the COTC's proposals coming imminently are a first step in that direction, but there will likely be more regulations. What we're basically seeing is a new body of financial regulation take shape.

465.715 - 486.873 Luke Vargas

That's journal reporter Alexander Osipovich. Alex, thanks for stopping by. Thanks for having me. China's factory-gate inflation accelerated in May as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to drive up energy and commodity costs. The country's producer price index jumped 3.9 percent from a year earlier, surpassing economists' forecasts. That comes ahead of U.S.

487.034 - 503.783 Luke Vargas

inflation numbers due out at 8.30 a.m. Eastern, with a journal survey of economists predicting that CPI surged to 4.2 percent in May. And GM is beefing up its energy storage business in a move the automaker says is designed to boost power grids strained by the data center build-out.

504.504 - 516.483 Luke Vargas

I asked Journal Auto's reporter Stephen Wilmot what to make of the move, which comes just weeks after rival Ford announced it would be turning batteries once destined for EVs into stationary energy storage systems.

Chapter 7: How is GM's strategy influenced by geopolitical factors?

577.557 - 588.6 Luke Vargas

We will be back tonight with a new show. And until then, thanks for listening.

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