Trump Prompts Rethink of Nuclear-Weapons Deals
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What prompted the discussion on nuclear arms?
and Iran renew talks over Tehran's nuclear program, could we be at the dawn of a new nuclear arms race? It's a question surfacing the world over as countries in Europe, Asia and the Middle East question whether America's nuclear umbrella offers enough protection. and which is driving some to seek out the protection of others or consider building their own nukes. We'll look at who's scoping out new nuclear deterrence, the proliferation risks of a renewed arms race, and what the process of actually building a nuclear program would look like in 2025. A little later on, we will be joined by nuclear weapons expert Daebak Das to discuss the practical details of going nuclear. But first, let me introduce journal reporter Lawrence Norman and from the London think tank Chatham House, senior research fellow Marion Messmer, an expert in arms control and nuclear weapons policy. Lawrence, let me start with you just to set the stage here. Walk us through what we have been hearing specifically from U.S.
allies in Europe about their interest in new deterrence options on the nuclear front.
So I think the first thing to say is that this change so far is incremental. There is not a sudden race to nuclear arms taking place across the world. What we've heard in Europe is in Germany, a country that has never really considered nuclear weapons. There is some talk on the margins of do we need to do this?
How are European countries responding to the nuclear threat?
Significantly, we've heard France talk about extending its nuclear umbrella, using the nuclear weapons that it has to defend its European allies. And there is some interest and there are some conversations around how that would work. This obviously comes at a time when there is a great deal of concern that the Trump administration is less interested in NATO and less interested in defending Europe's security.
In terms of actual new nuclear programs, is there anything more than just talk here? We've heard some rumblings from Poland, Turkey as well, countries thinking about maybe creating their own programs. Could that happen?
I guess it could happen in theory. But one of the things that's really important to keep in mind is that The big constraint that all of these states have is the Non-Proliferation Treaty, right? So in that agreement, they all essentially agreed not to develop their own nuclear weapons. And a big risk that we're seeing here is that all of those discussions around the potential for nuclear weapons could also actually end up destabilizing the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which wouldn't be a good thing for global security. And then, of course, there's also the technical constraint, which is that developing a nuclear program is something that would take a lot of time and would take a lot of investment.
And so because all of these states are essentially needing to scale up their armies and so on, there's also a big trade-off between investing in a new nuclear program, which would be a huge cost sink at first, and balancing that with buying perhaps more off-the-shelf conventional capabilities.
Maren, you'd already alluded there to some of the alternative options to creating a new nuclear program, namely countries seeking out France to be protected by its nuclear umbrella. What about the UK, another European power that has nukes?
Well, interestingly, UK nuclear weapons already protect NATO member states as well. People usually focus on, when they think about extended deterrence in Europe, they usually focus on the four deployed nuclear weapons that the US has stationed in Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Turkey and Italy. But the UK nuclear arsenal already protects NATO as such.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What prompted the discussion on nuclear arms?
0:33–1:59
2
How are European countries responding to the nuclear threat?
1:59–4:10
3
What are the implications of countries developing their own nuclear weapons?
4:10–4:37
4
What role does the Non-Proliferation Treaty play?
4:37–7:03
5
How might South Korea's nuclear ambitions affect regional security?
7:03–9:04
6
What are the risks of a renewed arms race?
9:04–14:05
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