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Chapter 1: What led to the U.S. and Iran's ceasefire agreement?
The U.S. pauses attacks on Iran after an 11th hour truce. We'll get the latest on the ceasefire and check in on how markets are reacting. Plus, TikTok says hey to Finland as it tries to hold off European regulatory pressure. And Republicans beat back a Democratic push to win Marjorie Taylor Greene's House seat.
But they can't beat Donald Trump and they never will. And I will be on Capitol Hill as a warrior to have his back each and every day.
Chapter 2: How is the ceasefire impacting the Strait of Hormuz?
It's Wednesday, April 8th.
I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal, and here is the AM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today. President Trump says he's agreed to suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks, so long as the country immediately reopens the Strait of Hormuz. Trump defended the ceasefire announcement, saying that the U.S.
had already met its military objectives and citing progress in negotiating a long-term peace with Iran. But having threatened to wipe out Iran's civilization just hours earlier and promising attacks on a range of new targets in recent days, is the U.S.
Chapter 3: What are the terms of the ceasefire from both the U.S. and Iran?
ready to lay down arms? Is Iran, and crucially, is the Strait of Hormuz back open? Here to help us sort out where things stand, I'm joined by Wall Street Journal Middle East correspondent Jared Malson. Jared, what exactly was agreed to overnight?
So last night, President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. He also acknowledged Iran's own terms for the ceasefire. So you have two different parameters and a lot of ambiguity around how this ceasefire is going to unfold. So it's sort of
Chapter 4: How are markets reacting to the ceasefire announcement?
Classic Trump where there's an announcement of a deal and they're going to work out the details later where there's supposed to be negotiations between U.S. officials and the Iranian side brokered by Pakistan starting later this week. But for now, there is a ceasefire in place. The U.S.
military says that it has stopped offensive operations and the Iranians have declared their own victory in the war.
You said President Trump acknowledged Iran's own terms.
Chapter 5: What challenges remain for the ceasefire to hold?
We had read out parts of one of their counteroffers earlier in the week on yesterday's podcast, including reparations for the war, a lasting end to fighting and some other things, a new regime to govern the Strait of Hormuz. Are those the terms you're mentioning there?
Yes. So Trump in his social media statement announcing the ceasefire last night said that they received the 10-point proposal from Iran and he said that he believes it's a workable basis on which to negotiate. So there's at least some implicit acknowledgement of Iran's position on this, which, as you said, include a number of important concessions.
Possibly the biggest one is that Iran wants to continue its influence over the Strait of Hormuz, where they say that movement of ships through the strait will take place in coordination with its armed forces.
I would imagine if Iran even gets some of those concessions, demands addressed by the US, that would be seen as quite a positive development in Tehran, would it not?
Yes, that's exactly how it's being seen. Obviously, this is a situation in which both sides are really declaring victory, and there's going to be a lot of spin and a lot of trying to shape public perceptions of what this all means.
But it is significant that six weeks ago, you had ships moving freely through the Strait of Hormuz, and now you have at least some official acknowledgement of Iran's influence and ability to have some degree of control over the what passes through the Strait.
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Chapter 6: How are central banks responding to the geopolitical situation?
The shipping industry and the oil industry are reacting to this with some skepticism. Right now, I can tell you there are not any ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz, and I think there's going to be a lot of caution from industry because they can't send giant oil tankers through the Strait until they have explicit assurances that those ships are going to be safe.
The Iranians have been trying to charge transit fees for ships as they cross. We don't know whether that's going to become a permanent thing. We know the Iranians have said that they want it to be permanent. But all of those very important details are still to be hammered out.
Chapter 7: What political implications does the ceasefire have for the U.S.?
All right. So big question marks around kind of the future arrangements for the Strait and whether indeed it's going to be opening in the wake of this. What about the ceasefire itself? Is it holding?
The ceasefire, I would say, is fragile and incomplete. There are several important questions around this. Number one is that the Iranians continue to fire missiles. missiles last night after the announcement at Israel and at Gulf countries. Another important question is whether the ceasefire is going to include Lebanon.
Obviously, there's been an entire offensive by the Israeli military against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Israeli government did not want Lebanon to be included in the ceasefire.
Chapter 8: What are TikTok's plans in response to European regulations?
Pakistan, which is the key mediating country, says that it is going to be included. So there's a lot of uncertainty around that. And I think just a lot of built in fragility to this deal with so many different aspects of it still up in the air and still to be decided in the formal negotiations that are coming later this week.
And yet today, maybe it all worked out in the end. I've been speaking to Wall Street Journal Middle East correspondent Jared Malson. Jared, appreciate you. Thanks so much for the update. Thank you. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hexeth and General Dan Kane are set to brief the press at 8 a.m.
Eastern this morning, but investors aren't waiting to see the ceasefire's fine print before kicking off a global market rally. Asian stocks posted gains across the board today, led by a more than 5 percent jump in Japan's Nikkei. European markets are up, and U.S. futures are pointing to a big open led by the Nasdaq. Investors also snapped up U.S. treasuries.
The dollar fell to a one-month low, and oil futures posted double-digit drops into the $90-a-barrel range. Less enthused, though, about the unwinding of the war premium were energy stocks, with ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Shell all down more than 5%.
Shell this morning said that while it's expecting a first-quarter boost from oil trading, its natural gas outlook would take a hit after one of its crown jewel assets, the Pearl gas-to-liquids facility in Qatar, was targeted in the war.
Meanwhile, the central banks of New Zealand and India today have decided to leave interest rates unchanged, while officials in both countries say they remain on alert for longer-lasting consequences stemming from the Iran war. Our Fabiana Negrin-Ochoa is in Singapore.
For Asia, the war has definitely an outsized impact in terms of inflationary risk because it's a region that relies so heavily on energy imports, many from the Middle East, of course. Even though that's driven up a lot of expectations that central banks will start tightening policy and there'll be like a hawkish shift.
It's not that clear cut because the fact that the inflationary shock is supply driven means that central banks don't really have the right toolkit with which to address those problems.
And central bankers in the region are also cognizant that they don't want to raise rates too quickly and then stifle the fledgling economic recoveries that we've seen through the last year, even though there was all this tariffs. turmoil.
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