What’s News in Earnings: Defense Contractors Thrive in Uncertain World

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What are the key themes in the latest earnings season?

The United States, which has for decades been at the center of international trade and capital flows, and also the bulwark of security for the world's democracies, is pulling back sharply from both roles. Tariffs hurt most manufacturing businesses, of course, but some defense companies operate in a world where that affects them less. As Western democracies up spending for their own defense, how will that balance play out? First quarter earnings season for defense contractors gave us a mixed picture on how this all will play out for those companies. Sharon Turliff covers the business for The Journal and is here to help us understand.
Sharon, during their first quarter earnings calls, defense company executives gave different accounts of how tariffs could affect them. Northrop Grumman said that additional costs are built into their contracts, and so they weren't very concerned. General Dynamics said that they wouldn't answer questions about tariffs because of all the uncertainty.

How are tariffs affecting defense contractors?

And then GE Aerospace and Boeing were both more specific, but they also have larger commercial footprints. Boeing, for example, said that about 80% of its commercial suppliers and about 10% of those for defense are outside the U.S. and could be affected by tariffs. Can you just give us some picture of how much you think they'll be hit and is anyone really totally insulated in this world?
Sharon Terlep 2:07
I would say nobody's totally insulated. The nature of supply chains today are parts go back and forth. There's nobody in this industry that is reliant entirely on the United States. That said, unlike most complicated global supply chains, the supply chain for building defense products, jets, missiles, all that type of thing is much more protected and U.S.-based than, say, cars or home appliances.

Which defense companies are most impacted by global supply chains?

And if I look at this business, if I look at defense and aerospace, commercial aviation, those are two rare industries where the U.S. actually has a manufactured good surplus with other countries. There are not a lot of businesses where you can say that about. We have a very large goods trade deficit with the rest of the world. They're understandably cautious, the executives of these companies, sort of talking about whether or not that's in danger because nonstop tariff headlines and – the fact that we've antagonized some of our closest trading partners and allies. But have you heard anything?

What are the concerns regarding U.S. trade relationships?

Are they concerned that they're burning bridges and that customers may basically not trust the US or not want to deal as much with them as they have in the past?
Sharon Terlep 3:16
Absolutely. And we're hearing that privately, but also publicly. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg talked about there's the cost that we could incur by the parts that we have to import. But then there's the cost of having markets shut off to us because of trade wars. And like everything in this industry, that's complicated as well. The big news last week was China. Some Chinese airlines started literally flying planes, sending Boeing jets back to the United States rather than paying tariffs, which was painful for Boeing financially in the short term. At the same time, the reality is China relies on U.S. parts makers and Boeing for jets, engine parts for a lot of things. And so they quietly lifted some of their tariffs on U.S. aerospace parts.
Listening to some of the calls and reading the transcripts of the calls, they're talking about the next generation of a lot of these fire aircrafts and missiles and air defense systems and things like that. These projects, they classically do run into cost overruns. Given all the cost cutting we have in Washington, are some of those projects in danger?

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