How to Make Inflation Work for Your Portfolio

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WSJ's Take On the Week 37 min 2 speakers 2 chapters transcribed 1 month ago
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What is the current state of inflation and why does it matter for bond investors?

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Telis Demos 0:32
Hi, Miriam. Hi, Telus. So this week, we've got a big conversation about inflation. It's obviously on the mind of the Federal Reserve, to put it mildly. But it's also something that investors really need to think about and reckon with, especially people who are, and I think a lot of you out in listener land fall into this category, are fixed income investors. You buy bonds. Bonds are very sensitive to inflation in one way or another. And so we've got a conversation that looks at What's actually happening in the inflation data, how we think maybe the Federal Reserve is thinking about it, approaching it. Obviously, it's a tenuous time in the new tenure of Kevin Warsh, the current chair of the Fed. But then also what that means for specifically parts of the bond market that are meant to address inflation.
Telis Demos 1:20
For example, the TIPS market. We'll tell you if you don't know what that means. We'll introduce it in a little bit.
Miriam Gottfried 1:25
In-depth info on that.
Telis Demos 1:27
And we're having this conversation with a really interesting guest. We are here with Jill Satina.
Jill Cetina 1:31
Hi, Jill. Welcome. Thank you. Thank you. Tell us. I appreciate the invite.
Telis Demos 1:34
Jill is a professor of finance and associate director of the commercial banking program at Texas A&M University. And Jill, you were also at both Treasury and the Fed. So you've seen all parts of the Buffalo of the government's footprint in the markets there. And you were also at Moody's for a little while, too.
Jill Cetina 1:58
That's right. Yeah. And I'm reminded as you're talking about seeing both sides of a comment by Augustin Carson, who was the Banco de Mexico governor, the central bank governor
ReliaQuest (Sponsor/Ad Reader) 2:10
for
Jill Cetina 2:11
Mexico, where he said, you know, the central bank is the bartender and the Treasury Department, the finance ministry, is basically the customer at the bar. And
ReliaQuest (Sponsor/Ad Reader) 2:22
so that's, I think, a
Telis Demos 2:23
very
Jill Cetina 2:23
important kind of statement. You know, general sentiment to keep in mind as we kind of started on
Telis Demos 2:28
this
Jill Cetina 2:28
conversation.
Telis Demos 2:29
I love that analogy. You know what? It's happy hour somewhere, right? So let's get this started. All right. So this past week, we had a closely, closely watched. I mean, all of them were closely watched. But this one, I think people were really scrutinizing. Consumer price index print. It was 3.4%. which was a little bit better than it was in June, which was 3.5%. And it seems to have taken the heat off of this debate at the Fed about whether or not rates should go up or down. Jill, what did you make of that reading? What did you think of that 3.4%?
Jill Cetina 3:06
Well, again, that was the headline reading for urban non-seasonally adjusted CPI.
Telis Demos 3:13
Which takes into account everything, all the prices that the CPI considers. Correct.
Jill Cetina 3:17
It's taking into account things like energy. And so, you know, if you looked at core, core came in at like 2.5, I believe.
Telis Demos 3:26
Core excludes?
Jill Cetina 3:27
Of
Telis Demos 3:27
course, food and energy. And
Jill Cetina 3:28
then we also had, and I think this was maybe covered a little bit less, you know, you may recall that Chair Powell was following very closely on in 2023 and 2024, SuperCore. And so SuperCore, I'm going to have to check my notes here, but it looks like it came in at 2.8, so actually a bit above the core measure.
Miriam Gottfried 3:47
What is SuperCore?
Jill Cetina 3:49
So great question. Thank you for that, Miriam. SuperCore is thinking about basically what's happening in terms of some of the services that are very, say, sticky, things like just in general... You know, entertainment, medical care, those types of things. And the reason that there was at least at one point in time a focus on super core from the Fed was there was a thought that this perhaps, you know, was a tell on what might happen in terms of wage inflation.

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