Show notes
**波蘭朋友的分享: 莫忘228歷史傷痛 因為和平不會是永遠的! **
Poland vs. Taiwan
歷史角色：兩者都曾是強權角力的棋子，但都努力尋求國家自決與國際地位。
國際戰略：兩者都位於東西對抗前線（波蘭在冷戰，台灣在美中競爭）。
民族韌性：不論是波蘭人或台灣人，都展現強大的文化韌性與民主追求，不輕易屈服於外來強權。
經濟發展：兩者在地緣危機中找到發展機遇，成為各自區域的重要經濟體。
How Poland emerged as a leading defence power
Will others follow?
3-minute Version
Poland is rapidly becoming a military power once again. When Russia seized Crimea in 2014, Poland’s armed forces ranked ninth in NATO. Today, they are the third-largest after the U.S. and Turkey, with over 200,000 troops. Its defense budget has tripled to $35 billion, and it now spends a higher percentage of its GDP on defense than any other NATO country.
波蘭正快速重新崛起為軍事強國。2014年俄羅斯佔領克里米亞時，波蘭的軍力在北約排名第九。如今，波蘭已躍升至第三名，僅次於美國和土耳其，軍隊人數超過20萬人。國防預算也成長三倍，達到350億美元，國防支出佔GDP的比率更是北約盟國中最高的。
As Poland takes over the EU Council presidency, its top focus is security. With Russia advancing and Donald Trump’s NATO commitment uncertain, Poland is positioning itself as a key security anchor for Europe’s eastern border. Poland’s fast-growing economy and experienced prime minister, Donald Tusk, are important assets.
隨著波蘭接任歐盟理事會輪值主席國，安全無疑是其首要關注。面對俄軍持續推進、加上川普對北約態度不明確，波蘭正努力成為歐洲東部防線的關鍵堡壘。波蘭經濟快速成長，加上總理唐納德·圖斯克（Donald Tusk）經驗豐富，這些都是波蘭的重要優勢。
Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz is driving a major military buildup. Poland is buying tanks, howitzers, and rocket systems from South Korea, plus nearly $60 billion worth of American equipment, including Apache helicopters and Patriot missile systems. Poland hopes this will strengthen ties with the U.S., especially if Trump returns to office. Poland already plans to meet Trump’s proposed NATO spending target of 5% of GDP, well above other allies.
國防部長兼副總理科西尼亞克-卡米什（Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz）正大力推動軍事擴張。波蘭從韓國採購坦克、自走砲與多管火箭系統，並向美國購買近600億美元的軍備，包括96架阿帕契攻擊直升機及愛國者飛彈的整合指揮系統。波蘭希望藉此加強與美國的軍事聯繫，尤其是面對川普可能重返白宮。波蘭已計劃達成川普提出的北約國防支出佔GDP 5%的目標，遠超其他盟國。
Poland’s primary goal remains keeping America engaged. Traditionally one of the most pro-U.S. countries in the EU, Poland resisted European defense initiatives under its previous government. While Tusk is more EU-friendly, Poland still believes European defense efforts should complement, not replace, U.S. support.
波蘭的首要目標仍是確保美國的軍事承諾。波蘭一直是歐盟中最親美的國家之一，過去也曾抗拒歐盟推動的歐洲防務自主計劃。雖然圖斯克比前朝更加親歐，但波蘭依然認為，歐洲防務發展應該是為了補強北約，而非取代美國的角色。
Poland is cautious, however, about sending NATO troops to Ukraine if a ceasefire is reached. French President Emmanuel Macron floated the idea, but Poland’s government, facing a tough presidential election in May, is hesitant. Tusk’s government is trying to reverse the autocratic policies of the previous Law and Justice (PiS) government, but progress depends on winning the presidency. Polls give liberal candidate Rafal Trzaskowski a narrow lead over PiS’s Karol Nawrocki, who is skeptical of NATO and EU membership for Ukraine.
然而，波蘭對於是否在停火後派遣北約部隊進入烏克蘭則態度保留。法國總統馬克宏提出這項構想，但波蘭政府因面臨5月總統大選，不願輕率表態。圖斯克政府正試圖扭轉前任法律與正義黨（PiS）留下的威權遺毒，包括司法操控和媒體淪為宣傳機器。然而，能否推動改革取決於這次選舉結果。民調顯示，代表中間派的華沙市長查斯科夫斯基（Rafal Trzaskowski）僅以些微差距領先PiS推出的保守派候選人納夫羅基（Karol Nawrocki），後者對烏克蘭加入北約與歐盟持懷疑態度。
Poland’s coalition government is fragile, with divisions over abortion and education reforms. Another reason for Poland’s hesitation on Ukraine is the countries’ difficult history. Disputes over World War II-era massacres have strained relations, and some Poles feel unappreciated for taking in over a million Ukrainian refugees. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky often bypasses Poland in favor of bigger powers like the U.S., France, and Germany.
波蘭的執政聯盟本身也相當脆弱，內部在墮胎與教育改革議題上分歧嚴重。波蘭對烏克蘭態度保留的另一個原因是雙方歷史上的積怨。二戰期間，烏克蘭游擊隊曾在沃林地區屠殺約10萬波蘭人，至今仍是敏感話題。雖然近期烏克蘭同意讓波蘭進行遇難者遺骸挖掘，但許多波蘭人仍認為，烏克蘭對波蘭收容百萬難民及提供軍援並不感激。此外，烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基（Volodymyr Zelensky）傾向直接與美國、法國、德國及歐盟溝通，對波蘭的態度冷淡，這也讓波蘭感到不滿。
Poland’s military will not be fully modernized until 2026-27, limiting its ability to deploy troops abroad in the near term. Still, Poland hopes its rising defense budget and strong economic growth will help keep NATO—and especially the U.S.—firmly committed to European security. In the end, Poland’s main goal is clear: keep Russia as far away as possible.
波蘭軍隊的現代化裝備預計要到2026至2027年才能全面到位，因此短期內很難向海外派遣大規模部隊。不過，波蘭希望憑藉持續增加的國防預算與穩健的經濟成長，確保美國對北約的承諾不動搖。波蘭的核心戰略始終如一：盡一切可能把俄羅斯擋得越遠越好。
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