Show notes
1. China’s secret weapon in the trade war
As China grapples with steep U.S. tariffs—145% on exports—millions of** manufacturing **jobs are at risk. Goldman Sachs estimates 16 million workers are tied to goods for America, and Nomura warns of up to 15.8 million job losses long-term.
當中國面臨美國高達145%的出口關稅時，數百萬製造業工作岌岌可危。高盛估計，有1,600萬名工人從事出口到美國的商品生產，而野村證券則警告，長期來看可能會有高達1,580萬個工作崗位流失。
To soften the blow, Beijing has turned to its booming** gig economy**. Once eyed with suspicion, the sector is now seen as an economic lifeline. About 84 million workers, from delivery drivers to ride-hailing drivers, power this vast informal economy—far outnumbering the 54 million at state-owned enterprises.
為了緩解衝擊，北京轉向蓬勃發展的零工經濟。這個曾經備受懷疑的行業，如今被視為經濟的救命稻草。大約有8,400萬名工人，從外送員到共乘司機，支撐著這個龐大的非正式經濟體系——人數遠超國有企業的5,400萬名員工。
Meituan, for example, employs 7.5 million couriers earning $11 billion annually, with its workforce up 41% since 2021. JD.com recently entered the delivery space, aiming to hire 100,000 riders by July, fueling a hiring boom despite investor worries over rising labor costs.
例如，美團僱用了750萬名外送員，每年支付工資達110億美元，自2021年以來其勞動力規模增長了41%。京東最近也進軍外送市場，計劃在7月前招聘10萬名騎手，儘管投資者對勞動成本上升感到擔憂，但這仍引發了一波招聘熱潮。
The government is now encouraging these companies to offer social benefits, with JD.com promising to cover social-security premiums and Meituan piloting pension contributions. But many drivers remain skeptical, suspecting that these costs will ultimately come from their wages.
政府現在鼓勵這些公司提供社會福利，京東承諾將支付社保費用，美團則試點推行養老金繳納計畫。但許多騎手仍持懷疑態度，擔心這些成本最終還是會從他們的薪資中扣除。
Yet the gig economy’s resilience is not guaranteed. Analysts warn that rising costs or automation—like Meituan’s delivery drones and autonomous vehicles—could threaten these jobs. Still, for now, the gig sector offers China a critical cushion as it weathers the storm of the trade war, keeping both the economy and millions of workers afloat.
然而，零工經濟的韌性並非保證無虞。分析師警告，成本上升或自動化技術——例如美團的配送無人機和自駕車——可能威脅到這些工作。儘管如此，就目前而言，零工行業為中國在貿易戰風暴中提供了一個關鍵的緩衝，幫助經濟和數百萬勞工維持生計。
2. Edible rats are China’s latest live-streaming stars
Cooking them on camera beats standing in a factory all day, and pays much better
Once a factory worker, 38-year-old Xing Jianli now earns far more by **live-streaming **from her peony fields in Heze, Shandong. On a good day, she makes 3,000 yuan ($400)—about a month’s factory wage. She’s part of a wave of rural Chinese turning to live-streaming to sell farm products like flowers, poultry, and fruit directly to online buyers.
38歲的邢建麗曾是工廠工人，如今她靠在山東菏澤的牡丹花田裡直播銷售，收入遠超過以往。她好日子一天能賺3,000元（約400美元）——相當於工廠一個月的工資。她是越來越多中國農村居民轉向直播，直接向線上買家銷售花卉、家禽和水果的浪潮之一。
While urban influencers like “Lipstick King” Li Jiaqi dominate luxury sales, rural streamers are revitalizing local economies. In 2023, Kuaishou saw 1.4 billion agricultural orders, a 56% jump from the year before, while Alibaba reported 441 billion yuan in sales from China’s poorer villages between 2021 and 2024.
雖然像「口紅一哥」李佳琦這樣的城市網紅主導著奢侈品銷售，但農村主播正為地方經濟注入活力。2023年，快手上的農產品訂單達14億筆，比前一年激增56%；阿里巴巴則報告，2021至2024年間，中國貧困村莊的銷售額達到4,410億元。
**Middlemen **like 30-year-old Feng Yanhui also profit, buying from farmers and reselling via livestreams. Local governments are boosting the trend, offering training to returnees from cities. Heze even hosted a live-streaming competition, bringing in local celebrity Li Xiaoxia to inspire farmers.
像30歲的馮艷輝這樣的中間商也從中獲利，他向農民收購產品，再透過直播轉售。地方政府正在推動這股潮流，為返鄉的城市務工人員提供培訓。菏澤甚至舉辦了一場直播比賽，邀請當地網紅李曉霞來激勵農民。
Some streamers focus on selling rural life itself. The “Huanong Brothers” from Jiangxi became online stars live-streaming their bamboo rat farm, drawing 3.6 million Douyin fans. Li Ziqi from Sichuan gained over 28 million Weibo followers with serene videos of farming, cooking, and nature, reportedly selling 1.6 billion yuan in goods in 2020. Others grab attention with extreme stunts, like binge-drinking.
有些直播主專注於「銷售鄉村生活」本身。來自江西的「華農兄弟」透過直播竹鼠養殖場成為網紅，吸引了360萬抖音粉絲。來自四川的李子柒則以寧靜優美的農耕、烹飪與自然影片，在微博上獲得超過2800萬粉絲，據報導她在2020年銷售金額達到16億元人民幣。另一些人則透過極端行為吸引關注，例如狂飲烈酒等噱頭。
As competition grows, veterans like Heze’s Li Hui remain confident—this year, he expects to sell half a million peonies via his stream. For many, live-streaming has become a **lucrative **escape from factory drudgery and a lifeline for China’s rural economy.
隨著競爭日益激烈，像菏澤的老將李輝依然充滿信心——他預計今年透過直播能賣出50萬株牡丹花。對許多人而言，直播已成為逃離工廠苦差事的有利出路，也成了中國鄉村經濟的重要生命線。
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