Show notes
Trump is a threat to Asia’s giant insurers
Not just its exporters
May 8th 2025|Hong Kong and Singapore
Shorter version
1) Taiwan, despite its high-tech economy and strong exports, still has surprisingly cheap prices—Big Macs, for example, are the cheapest among tracked countries. This hints that the Taiwanese dollar (TWD) is undervalued. Despite Taiwan’s massive current-account surplus and booming chip exports, its currency has stayed stable for years.
台灣儘管擁有高科技經濟和強勁的出口，物價卻出奇地便宜——例如，在所有受追蹤的國家中，台灣的巨無霸漢堡價格是最便宜的 (台幣81元)。這顯示出台幣（TWD）可能被低估了。儘管台灣擁有龐大的經常帳盈餘與蓬勃發展的晶片出口，其匯率多年間卻一直相當穩定。
2) But in early May, that changed. The TWD suddenly** surge**d by 5%—its biggest move since the 1980s. Ironically, this shift happened while many expected the dollar to rise under Trump’s trade threats. Instead, the U.S. dollar weakened, forcing Taiwanese exporters to convert foreign earnings before they lost more value.
然而在五月初，情況發生了變化。台幣突然上漲了5%，創下自1980年代以來最大的單日波動。諷刺的是，這一變動發生在許多人預期川普貿易威脅會推升美元的情況下。然而，美元反而走弱，迫使台灣出口商趕緊將外幣收益兌換為台幣，以避免資產進一步貶值。
3) Taiwan’s life insurers may have played a key role in the surge. They face a currency mismatch—holding mostly U.S.-dollar assets but paying policies in TWD. As the local currency strengthened, they rushed to hedge, creating more demand for TWD and amplifying its rise.
台灣的壽險公司可能在這波台幣升值中扮演了關鍵角色。它們面臨貨幣錯配的風險——資產大多為美元計價，但保單給付卻以台幣支付。隨著台幣升值，壽險業者急於進行避險操作，進一步推升了對台幣的需求，加劇了升值幅度。
4) The central bank, which usually keeps the currency stable, did not** intervene** at first—possibly to avoid attention during sensitive trade talks with the U.S., which monitors Taiwan for currency manipulation. But after the sharp moves on May 5th, it was forced to act.
台灣央行一向致力於維持匯率穩定，但起初並未干預——可能是為了在與美國進行敏感貿易談判期間避免引起關注，畢竟美國正將台灣列為匯率操縱的觀察對象。然而，在5月5日出現劇烈波動後，央行被迫出手干預。
5) Though the central bank insists the currency is not part of trade negotiations, its quiet role in guiding the TWD is under renewed scrutiny. It can prevent the currency from rising further—but not from drawing more attention, especially if the U.S. dollar keeps sliding.
儘管台灣央行堅稱匯率問題並非貿易談判的一部分，但其在引導台幣匯率上的低調角色再次受到關注。央行可以阻止台幣進一步升值，但若美元持續走弱，台幣仍難以避免成為外界關注的焦點。
2. Business | Silicon surprise
Huawei and other Chinese chip firms are catching up fast
But they still depend on America and its allies in a few vital areas
May 8th 2025|Shanghai
1) China’s chip sector is booming despite U.S. sanctions aimed at slowing its progress. Cambricon, a local AI chipmaker, has seen its share price soar 350% over the past year, far outpacing Nvidia.
儘管美國實施制裁試圖放緩中國的發展，中國晶片產業依然蓬勃發展。當地 AI 晶片製造商寒武紀（Cambricon）在過去一年股價飆漲了 350%，遠遠超越輝達（Nvidia）的漲幅。
2) The U.S. has blocked the sale of Nvidia’s H20 chip to China and plans to replace its export licensing system with stricter measures. Yet Chinese AI labs remain active, with tech giants like Alibaba and Tencent expanding data centers.
美國已禁止對中國銷售輝達的 H20 晶片，並計劃以更嚴格的措施取代現行的出口許可制度。然而，中國的 AI 實驗室依然活躍，阿里巴巴與騰訊等科技巨頭仍在擴建資料中心。
3) Breakthroughs like DeepSeek’s lower chip requirements and underground supply chains have helped. At the same time, Chinese firms are advancing rapidly. Huawei’s new CloudMatrix cluster reportedly outperforms Nvidia’s NVL72, although it uses more power. Other firms like Cambricon and Hygon are releasing chips designed to replace Nvidia’s A100.
像 DeepSeek 降低晶片需求的技術突破，以及地下供應鏈的協助，使中國持續推進。同時，中國企業也快速進步。據報導，華為最新的 CloudMatrix 晶片叢集效能已超越輝達的 NVL72，雖然耗電較高。寒武紀與海光等公司也推出了用來取代輝達 A100 的 AI 晶片。
4) China is also progressing in memory tech. CXMT is catching up in high-bandwidth memory (HBM), a field dominated by firms from South Korea and the U.S. Domestic toolmakers like AMEC and Naura are developing** alternatives** to previously U.S.-controlled chipmaking equipment.
中國在記憶體技術方面也有進展。長鑫存儲（CXMT）正在追趕高頻寬記憶體（HBM）技術，該領域原由南韓與美國企業主導。國內設備製造商如中微公司（AMEC）與北方華創（Naura）也正開發替代過去由美國控制的晶片製造設備。
5) Still, China has limitations. Huawei’s chips rely on some foreign** components**. China lacks access to ASML’s cutting-edge lithography tools and remains behind in manufacturing the most advanced chips. TSMC, banned from supplying these to China, may still be involved indirectly—though denied by all parties.
儘管如此，中國仍面臨限制。華為的晶片仍依賴部分外國零件，中國也無法取得 ASML 的先進光刻機，且在製造最先進晶片方面仍落後。台積電雖被禁止向中國供應這類晶片，但外界猜測其仍可能間接參與，儘管各方均予以否認。
6) Software remains a challenge. Nvidia’s CUDA dominates AI development, and Huawei’s alternative, CANN, is buggy and unpopular.
軟體仍然是一個挑戰。 Nvidia 的 CUDA 主導著人工智慧的發展，而華為的替代方案 CANN 則有缺陷且不受歡迎。
7) Despite hurdles, Chinese firms are increasingly embracing local chips out of necessity. What was once a government push is now a national mission, backed by rising **private sector **support. ■
儘管面臨障礙，中國企業出於需要越來越多採用國產晶片。這項曾經由政府推動的事業如今已成為一項國家使命，並得到了私營部門日益增多的支持。
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