Show notes
1. Why the MAGA (Make America Great Again) economy is thriving
The world’s largest market is becoming two
1) America is increasingly splitting into two distinct economies: one liberal, the other conservative or "MAGA." This divide is evident in consumer behavior, economic activity, and industrial composition. Conservatives favor brands like MyPillow, Black Rifle Coffee, and Jeremy’s Razors—products often marketed with overt patriotism or anti-woke sentiments. Liberals tend to mock these as scams or culturally backward, but the MAGA economy is thriving nonetheless.
美國正日益分裂為兩個截然不同的經濟體系：一個是自由派的，另一個是保守派或所謂的「MAGA」派。這種分裂在消費行為、經濟活動以及產業結構上表現得非常明顯。保守派偏好像 MyPillow、Black Rifle Coffee 和 Jeremy’s Razors 這類品牌——這些產品通常以強烈的愛國情懷或反覺醒文化的形象進行行銷。自由派則常嘲諷這些品牌是騙局或文化上的倒退，然而，MAGA 經濟體依然蓬勃發展。
2) Despite Democratic areas contributing two-thirds of U.S. GDP, Republican regions still generate around $10 trillion annually, which would rank as the world’s third-largest economy. These areas are also seeing rising incomes and population growth. For example, nearly half of all Americans earning over $1 million in 2024 lived in Trump-voting states.
儘管民主黨地區貢獻了美國三分之二的國內生產總值（GDP），共和黨地區每年仍創造約10兆美元的經濟產值，若單獨計算，將堪稱全球第三大經濟體。這些地區的收入與人口也在持續成長。例如，在2024年，將近一半年收入超過100萬美元的美國人居住在投票支持川普的州。
3) Consumer preferences and spending habits differ sharply by political affiliation. Democrats spend more on dining out and public transport; Republicans spend more on cars and nursing homes. Events like Trump’s 2016 victory and the COVID-19 pandemic further widened these gaps. MAGA regions were less economically impacted by lockdowns and have shifted towards manufacturing, while liberal regions moved into tech and information sectors.
消費者的偏好與消費習慣在政治立場上呈現明顯差異。民主黨支持者較常外出用餐並花更多於公共交通；而共和黨支持者則在汽車與療養院方面的支出較高。川普於2016年當選以及COVID-19疫情等事件進一步擴大了這些差距。MAGA 地區在封鎖期間受到的經濟衝擊較小，並逐漸轉向製造業發展；相對地，自由派地區則愈加集中於科技與資訊產業。
4) Surveys show** stark partisan divides **in economic outlooks and inflation expectations. Market data also reflect the split: companies aligned with Republican values like Fox, John Deere, and Harley-Davidson have outperformed liberal-associated firms like Etsy and Lululemon over the past decade. Investment funds focused on Republican-aligned companies have also outpaced their Democratic counterparts.
調查顯示，民主與共和兩黨支持者在經濟前景與通膨預期方面存在明顯分歧。市場數據同樣反映這種分裂：與共和黨價值觀相符的企業，如福斯新聞（Fox）、約翰迪爾（John Deere）和哈雷機車（Harley-Davidson），在過去十年中的表現超越了與自由派相關的公司，如 Etsy 和 Lululemon。以共和黨傾向企業為主的投資基金，其績效也領先於專注於民主黨企業的基金。
5) Though the MAGA economy may face challenges, such as Trump’s tariffs, strong internal migration to red states and robust consumer confidence suggest its resilience. This bifurcation isn’t just ideological—it’s reshaping America’s markets, workplaces, and consumer culture in real, measurable ways.
儘管 MAGA 經濟可能面臨如川普關稅等挑戰，但由於大量人口內部遷移至紅州以及強勁的消費者信心，顯示出其韌性。這種經濟分化不僅是意識形態上的對立，更在實質上、可量化地重塑美國的市場、職場與消費文化。
2. Lessons from the US-China trade war
1) In a recent Money Talks podcast from The Economist, hosts Mike Bird and Ethan Wu examine the evolution and future of U.S.-China economic relations, focusing on Donald Trump’s trade war and the broader shift towards economic warfare. Once** touted by** Trump as “easy to win,” the trade war has proven more complex and disruptive. Despite recent tariff de-escalations, the economic relationship between China and the U.S. is clearly fracturing, creating real-world consequences like disrupted shipping and reactive stockpiling.
2) China has taken note of America’s economic power and is reassessing its vulnerability. Dan Wang, a China expert, highlights how China has been preparing for potential autarky—economic self-sufficiency—by studying how to withstand U.S. sanctions. The broader message is that China sees the economic tools wielded by the U.S., like financial sanctions, as potent threats.
3) Eddie Fishman, a former Obama-era sanctions architect and author of Chokepoints, argues that economic weapons go far beyond tariffs. A key example is the U.S.'s ability to unilaterally cut countries off from the dollar-based global financial system, causing significant economic pain. This immense power can be executed swiftly through executive orders, making it a modern “weapon of mass economic destruction.”
4) The hosts point out that the current tension may lead to a long-term global realignment, with countries diversifying away from the U.S. economy to protect themselves. Asian investors and sovereign wealth funds are already reconsidering their exposure to U.S. assets due to perceived instability.
5) Overall, the podcast underscores that while tariffs may grab headlines, deeper and more sophisticated forms of economic warfare—like sanctions, tech bans, and financial system exclusion—pose greater long-term risks. The global economy is moving away from a unified system toward fractured, politically-aligned blocs, and both the U.S. and China are preparing for a more adversarial future.
· 在近期《經濟學人》的 Money Talks 播客中，主持人 Mike Bird 與 Ethan Wu 探討美中經濟關係的演變與未來，焦點放在川普發動的貿易戰以及更廣泛的經濟戰手段。川普曾聲稱這場貿易戰「容易取勝」，但事實證明其影響更為複雜且具破壞性。儘管近期關稅有所緩解，美中之間的經濟關係已明顯破裂，導致現實問題如航運混亂與企業囤貨。
· 中國注意到美國的經濟力量，開始重新評估自身的脆弱性。中國問題專家王丹指出，中國早已開始為可能的經濟自給自足（自力更生）做準備，並研究如何承受美國制裁。整體訊息是，中國將美國所掌握的經濟工具（如金融制裁）視為強大威脅。
· 歐巴馬政府時期的制裁設計者、同時也是《Chokepoints》一書作者 Eddie Fishman 指出，經濟武器的範圍遠超過關稅。美國有能力單方面切斷其他國家與以美元為基礎的全球金融體系的連結，透過總統行政命令即可迅速執行，造成極大經濟痛苦，堪稱現代版「經濟大規模毀滅性武器」。
· 主持人指出，當前緊張情勢可能導致長期的全球經濟重組，各國為了自保，正開始從美國經濟中撤資。亞洲投資者與主權財富基金已重新思考對美資產的曝險程度，因為這些資產正被視為不穩定風險源。
· 總結來說，該播客強調，雖然關稅易引起關注，但更深層、更複雜的經濟戰手段——如制裁、科技禁令與排除於金融體系之外——才是真正的長期風險。全球經濟正從一體化走向分裂，逐漸形成政治陣營分明的經濟集團，而美中雙方都正為更加對立的未來做準備。
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