Show notes
1. If China invaded Taiwan, who would enter the war?
Japan and the Philippines would struggle to stay out. But what about the rest?
At the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, French President Emmanuel Macron raised a key question: What if China launches a major military operation against Taiwan? His cautious stance reflects broader global uncertainty. A report by the Centre for a New American Security (CNAS) warns that if the U.S. stays out of such a conflict, most other countries likely would, too.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth countered that China would face “devastating consequences” if it attacked Taiwan. But confidence in America's commitment is fading, especially after Donald Trump’s suggestion that Taiwan aid would be negotiable. Some in the Pentagon even doubt Taiwan’s ability to resist.
If the U.S. does intervene, Japan and the Philippines would be most directly affected. Japan might limit its role to missile and submarine support. The Philippines, with 175,000 nationals in Taiwan, would be cautious, though tensions in the South China Sea could escalate if China gets bogged down.
South Korea, Australia, and India would be under U.S. pressure to help. South Korea would focus on deterring North Korea, offering logistics support at most. Australia, a key U.S. partner, has made no commitment but risks straining ties if it stays out. India would likely remain on the sidelines militarily but assist with intelligence and naval operations.
Southeast Asia—home to 900,000 nationals in Taiwan—would mostly try to stay neutral due to trade ties with China, though the U.S. would seek base access in Thailand and Singapore.
In Europe, concern is growing. France, Italy, and Britain have deployed naval assets to the region. While direct military support is unlikely, EU-wide sanctions—particularly trade restrictions—could significantly impact China, though such a move remains a difficult political challenge.
1. 如果中國入侵台灣，誰會參戰？
日本與菲律賓最難置身事外，但其他國家又會怎麼選擇？
在新加坡舉行的香格里拉對話中，法國總統馬克宏提出了一個關鍵問題：如果中國對台灣發動大規模軍事行動，世界各國會如何反應？他的謹慎態度反映了全球對此情勢的普遍不確定。一份由美國智庫「新美國安全中心」（CNAS）發表的報告警告，如果美國選擇不介入，大多數其他國家也可能選擇袖手旁觀。
美國國防部長皮特‧赫格塞斯反駁稱，中國若動武將面臨「毀滅性後果」。但對美國承諾的信心正在減弱，尤其是在川普曾表示援助台灣需經過「協商」之後。一些五角大廈官員甚至懷疑台灣有能力堅持抵抗。
若美國選擇介入，最直接受影響的將是日本與菲律賓。日本可能僅限於提供飛彈或潛艦支援。擁有17.5萬名國民在台灣的菲律賓將更為謹慎，不過若中國軍隊陷入苦戰，南海的緊張局勢可能升高。
南韓、澳洲與印度也會面臨美國的施壓。南韓將優先關注北韓可能趁機挑釁，頂多提供後勤支援。澳洲雖是美國的重要盟友，卻尚未做出承諾，若選擇不參與，可能損及與美方的關係。印度則多半會專注於中印邊界防禦，但預料會在情報與反潛作戰上提供協助。
東南亞地區約有90萬持護照者在台灣工作與生活，考量與中國的貿易依賴，多數國家可能選擇保持中立；不過，美國可能尋求使用泰國與新加坡的空軍與海軍基地。
至於歐洲方面，對中國可能入侵台灣的擔憂也日益升高。法國、義大利與英國已向亞太地區派遣軍艦。雖然直接軍事支援可能性不高，但歐盟若能統一對中國實施制裁，特別是貿易限制，可能對中國造成重大衝擊，儘管這樣的決定在政治上仍極具挑戰性。
2. Taiwan thinks the unthinkable: **resisting China **without America
Its plan was to hold off a Chinese attack until America turned up. What now?
Taiwan’s defence strategy has long hinged on surviving a Chinese assault for at least a month—enough time for the U.S. to intervene. But confidence in that rescue is weakening, especially as American political rhetoric grows more uncertain. Donald Trump’s ambivalence on defending Ukraine and previous remarks belittling Taiwan’s chances have rattled nerves on the island.
“Strategic ambiguity,” the U.S. policy of neither committing to nor denying military support, was meant to deter reckless moves by either China or Taiwan. But now, ambiguity fuels anxiety. Taiwan’s opposition accuses America of being unreliable, while Beijing remains unsure whether a quick win is even possible after observing Russia’s failed blitz on Ukraine.
The ongoing war in Ukraine has shifted Taiwan’s focus. Now the goal is prolonged resistance. At a recent Taiwan Trilateral Forum in Berlin, Taiwanese officials stressed the need to demonstrate the island’s ability to fight over an extended period. The logic: buying time for international aid and challenging China’s legitimacy.
There’s growing awareness of Taiwan’s vulnerabilities—from its reliance on imports for chip manufacturing to its energy dependence. Public sentiment is shifting too: previously anti-nuclear groups are reconsidering for national security’s sake. Taiwan is boosting civilian resilience through stockpiles, training drills, and learning from countries like Israel and Finland.
New President Lai Ching-te is more open than predecessor Tsai Ing-wen, publicly leading resilience efforts to bridge partisan divides. Diplomatically, such efforts let allies support Taiwan without provoking China through arms deals.
Some Taiwanese quietly debate a final step: preparing for resistance even under occupation. Though controversial, it reflects a sobering realization from Ukraine—survival requires preparation, unity, and the will to endure.
台灣思考難以想像的未來：在沒有美國援助下抵抗中國
台灣的防衛策略長期以來依賴於一個前提：能夠撐過中國的攻擊至少一個月，好讓美國有時間介入。然而，對這場「及時救援」的信心正日益動搖，特別是在美國的政治言論越來越不確定的情況下。川普對烏克蘭防衛問題的模糊態度，以及過去輕視台灣自保能力的言論，已讓台灣人心惶惶。
美國長期奉行的「戰略模糊」政策──不明確表示是否會軍援台灣──原意是為了防止中台任何一方魯莽改變現狀。但如今，這種模糊反而成了焦慮的來源。台灣在野黨指責美國靠不住，而北京則因俄羅斯閃電戰在烏克蘭的失敗，也開始懷疑自己是否真能迅速取勝。
烏克蘭戰爭的持久性也迫使台灣重新思考防禦戰略。如今的重點轉為長期抗戰。在最近於柏林舉行的台灣三方論壇中，台灣官員強調，必須向國際展示其具備持久作戰的能力。其戰略邏輯在於拖延時間以等待國際支援，並挑戰中國的正當性。
對台灣脆弱性的認識也在上升，從對半導體製造原料的進口依賴，到能源供應的脆弱性。輿論也出現轉變：原本反對核能的團體，現在也開始重新評估能源政策與國安的關係。政府正透過糧食、水、藥品和能源儲備、全民演習等方式，強化民間韌性，並向以色列和芬蘭等國學習。
新任總統賴清德比前總統蔡英文更願意公開推動這些防衛努力，希望彌合黨派分歧。這也為盟友提供不需出售武器就能援助台灣的外交空間，減少激怒中國的風險。
一些台灣人也開始默默討論最後一步：即便被佔領，也要準備抵抗。雖然這在島內極具爭議，但從烏克蘭的經驗來看，這反映出一個嚴峻的現實：要生存，必須提前準備、保持團結，並有堅持到底的決心。
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