Show notes
Nov 10th 2025
4 min read
By Tom Standage, Editor, The World Ahead 2026
This is Donald Trump’s world—we’re all just living in it. The disruptor-in-chief was the biggest factor shaping global affairs in 2025, and that will be the case for as long as he remains in the White House. His norm-shattering approach has caused turmoil in some areas (as in trade) but has also delivered diplomatic results (as in Gaza) and forced necessary change (as with European defence spending). As the Trumpnado spins on in 2026, here are ten trends and themes to watch in the coming year.
1. America’s 250th.
Expect to hear wildly diverging accounts of America’s past, present and future, as Republicans and Democrats describe the same country in irreconcilably different terms to mark the 250th anniversary of its founding. Voters will then give their verdict on America’s future in the midterm elections in November. But even if the Democrats take the House, Mr Trump’s rule by bullying, tariffs and executive orders will go on.
2. Geopolitical drift.
Foreign-policy analysts are divided: is the world in a new cold war, between blocs led by America and China, or will a Trumpian deal divide the planet into American, Russian and Chinese “spheres of influence”, in which each can do as they please? Don’t count on either. Mr Trump prefers a transactional approach based on instinct, not grand geopolitical paradigms. The old global rules-based order will drift and decay further. But “coalitions of the willing” will strike new deals in areas such as defence, trade and climate.
3. War or peace? Yes.
With luck, the fragile peace in Gaza will hold. But conflicts will grind on in Ukraine, Sudan and Myanmar. Russia and China will test America’s commitment to its allies with “grey-zone” provocations in northern Europe and the South China Sea. As the line between war and peace becomes ever more blurred, tensions will rise in the Arctic, in orbit, on the sea floor and in cyberspace.
4. Problems for Europe.
All this poses a particular test for Europe. It must increase defence spending, keep America on side, boost economic growth and deal with huge deficits, even though austerity risks stoking support for hard-right parties. It also wants to remain a leading advocate for free trade and greenery. It cannot do all of these at once. A splurge on defence spending may lift growth, but only slightly.
5. China’s opportunity.
China has its own problems, with deflation, slowing growth and an industrial glut, but Mr Trump’s “America First” policy opens up new opportunities for China to boost its global influence. It will present itself as a more reliable partner, particularly in the global south, where it is striking a string of trade agreements. It is happy to do tactical deals with Mr Trump on soyabeans or chips. The trick will be to keep relations with America transactional, not confrontational.
With rich countries living beyond their means, the risk of a bond-market crisis is growing
6. Economic worries.
So far America’s economy is proving more resilient than many expected to Mr Trump’s tariffs, but they will dampen global growth. And with rich countries** living beyond their means**, the risk of a bond-market crisis is growing. Much will depend on the replacement of Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve in May; politicising the Fed could trigger a market showdown.
7. Concerns over AI.
Rampant spending on infrastructure for artificial intelligence may also be concealing economic weakness in America. Will the bubble burst? As with railways, electricity and the internet, a crash would not mean that the technology does not have real value. But it could have wide economic impact. Either way, concern about AI’s impact on jobs, particularly those of graduates, will deepen.
8. A mixed climate picture.
Limiting warming to 1.5°C is off the table, and Mr Trump hates renewables. But global emissions have probably peaked, clean tech is booming across the global south and firms will meet or exceed their climate targets—but will keep quiet about it to avoid Mr Trump’s ire. Geothermal energy is worth watching.
9. Sporting values.
Sport can always be relied upon to provide a break from politics, right? Well, maybe not in 2026. The football World Cup is being jointly hosted by America, Canada and Mexico, whose relations are strained. Fans may stay away. But the Enhanced Games, in Las Vegas, may be even more controversial: athletes can use performance-enhancing drugs. Is it cheating—or just different?
10. Ozempic, but better.
Better, cheaper GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are coming, and in pill form, too. That will expand access. But is taking them cheating? GLP-1s extend the debate about the ethics of performance-enhancing drugs to a far wider group than athletes or bodybuilders. Few people compete in the Olympics. But anyone can take part in the Ozempic games.
Wherever you stand on performance-enhancing drugs, I hope you will find The World Ahead 2026 to be a valuable and effective supplement to your media diet, boosting clarity and foresight.
2025 年 11 月 10 日｜4 分鐘閱讀
作者：Tom Standage，《The World Ahead 2026》主編
這是唐納・川普的世界——我們都只是生活在其中而已。這位「破壞式領導人」在 2025 年對全球局勢造成的影響最大，只要他仍在白宮，情況就會如此。他打破慣例的作風在某些領域帶來動盪（如貿易），卻也在其他地方取得外交成果（如加薩），並迫使一些必要的改變（例如歐洲的國防支出）。隨著「川普龍捲風」在 2026 年持續旋轉，以下是明年值得關注的十大趨勢與主題。
1. 美國 250 週年。
你將會聽到共和黨與民主黨對於美國過去、現在與未來截然不同的敘述，幾乎無法調和，以紀念建國 250 週年。選民會在十一月的期中選舉中對美國的未來作出裁決。但即使民主黨奪回眾議院，川普透過施壓、關稅與行政命令的治理方式仍將持續。
2. 地緣政治漂移。
外交政策分析人士意見分歧：世界是否正步入由美國與中國主導的新冷戰，或是會被川普式交易切割成美國、俄羅斯與中國各自為政的「勢力範圍」？兩者都別太指望。川普偏好憑直覺、以交易為導向的方式，而非宏大的地緣政治框架。舊有的全球規則秩序將進一步漂移與衰退，但「志願者聯盟」會在國防、貿易、氣候等領域達成新協議。
3. 戰爭或和平？答案是：兩者皆是。
運氣好的話，加薩脆弱的和平會維持下去。但烏克蘭、蘇丹與緬甸的衝突將持續。俄羅斯與中國會透過「灰色地帶」挑釁來測試美國對盟友的承諾，包括北歐與南海。隨著戰爭與和平的界線愈加模糊，北極、太空軌道、海底與網路空間的緊張局勢會升溫。
4. 歐洲的難題。
上述情勢對歐洲特別是考驗。歐洲必須增加國防預算、維持與美國的關係、提升經濟成長並處理龐大赤字，但緊縮政策又可能推升極右派的支持度。歐洲同時想維持自由貿易與綠色政策的倡導者角色，但不可能一次做到所有事。大幅提升國防開支也許能提振成長，但幅度有限。
5. 中國的機會。
中國面臨通縮、增速放緩與產能過剩等問題，但川普「美國優先」的政策為中國拓展全球影響力帶來新契機。中國將自我定位為更可靠的合作夥伴，尤其是在全球南方，並積極簽署一系列貿易協定。中國樂於與川普在黃豆或晶片等個別議題上做戰術性交易。關鍵在於保持雙邊關係以交易為主，而非走向對抗。
6. 經濟憂慮。
到目前為止，美國經濟面對川普關稅的韌性比許多人預想的更高，但這些關稅終究會拖累全球成長。另外，隨著富裕國家透支生活，債券市場危機的風險正在上升。五月美聯儲主席鮑威爾的接任者將備受關注；若將聯準會政治化，可能引發市場對決。
7. AI 的隱憂。
人工智慧基礎設施的瘋狂投資，可能掩蓋了美國經濟的潛在疲弱。泡沫會破嗎？就像鐵路、電力與網際網路一樣，就算泡沫破裂，也不代表這項科技沒有真正的價值。但它可能帶來廣泛的經濟衝擊。不論如何，大眾對 AI 取代工作、特別是大學生工作的憂慮，將加深。
8. 氣候的複雜局面。
將升溫控制在 1.5°C 已不可能，而川普厭惡再生能源。但全球排放量可能已經見頂，綠色科技在全球南方蓬勃發展，企業也將達成甚至超越其氣候目標——但會低調行事，以避免惹怒川普。地熱能源值得關注。
9. 運動與價值衝突。
運動向來是逃離政治的途徑，不是嗎？2026 年未必如此。足球世界盃由美國、加拿大、墨西哥共同主辦，而三國關係緊張；球迷可能減少前往。但在拉斯維加斯舉辦的「增強運動會」（Enhanced Games）可能更具爭議：選手可以使用提升表現的藥物。這是作弊，還是另一種競賽方式？
10. 更好的 Ozempic。
更有效、價格更低的 GLP-1 類減重藥物即將問世，還會推出口服版本，讓更多人能使用。但使用這些藥算作弊嗎？GLP-1 讓提升表現藥物的倫理辯論擴大到遠超過運動員或健美者。能參加奧運的人很少，但「Ozempic 競賽」人人都能參加。
無論你對提升表現藥物的看法如何，我希望《The World Ahead 2026》能成為你媒體飲食裡一種有價值且有效的補充品，提升你的清晰度與前瞻視野。
--
Hosting provided by SoundOn