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China and Taiwan both see lessons in America’s** raid** on Venezuela
It won’t change China’s calculus but is a case study for “decapitation” strikes
Jan 8th 2026|Taipei|4 min read
China’s public is used to seeing flashy footage of its armed forces parading new weaponry through Beijing, conducting peacekeeping patrols in Africa or staging elaborate drills around disputed territory, especially Taiwan. But nobody under 45 can claim to have lived through an actual Chinese military strike on another country. And among older generations who did, most would rather forget the war of 1979 in which Vietnam repelled a Chinese invasion. No wonder, then, that many Chinese people were transfixed by reports of America’s dramatic night-time extraction of Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela.
China’s government swiftly denounced the raid, but details and discussion of it circulated widely online. Among the more nationalist comments, there was also a common refrain: could this be a template for a Chinese attack on Taiwan? Similar thoughts have been raised in Taiwan itself and in America, with prominent figures arguing that the raid could set a precedent for China’s leader, Xi Jinping, to conduct—and legitimise—an assault on the island.
**In truth, Mr Maduro’s capture will probably have little direct impact on China’s approach to Taiwan. **Rhetorically, Chinese officials have already started to use the operation to bolster their long-standing portrayal of America as a global bully and serial violator of international law. But the Trump administration’s legal justifications are of little interest to China. More pertinently, China has refrained from attacking thus far, not because it fears foreign reprimand, but owing to its own military limitations and concerns that America would intervene.
Even so, there are lessons to be drawn for both China and Taiwan. Chinese special forces have been planning “decapitation” strikes on Taiwan’s leadership for years. In 2015 China’s state television revealed that the People’s Liberation Army, or PLA, had built a mock-up of Taiwan’s presidential palace in the desert in northern China to practise an assault. The training site has tripled in size since 2020. Models of other Taiwanese ministries have been built, according to satellite images obtained by a Japanese think-tank in October. China’s focus on decapitation seemingly intensified after the success of Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, in rallying resistance to Russia’s invasion.
Decapitation drills have been included in China’s recent military exercises around Taiwan, too. The latest, on December 29th and 30th, involved dozens of warships and military aircraft as well as long-range rocket fire. They simulated a blockade and operations to prevent foreign forces intervening. They also rehearsed strikes on pro-independence figures, according to Senior Colonel Zhang Chi of China’s National Defence University.
China would need to do more than kill or capture Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, as that would leave intact the rest of the government, which has a clear line of succession. The PLA is thus likely to use decapitation strikes as part of a bigger operation, potentially a full-scale invasion.
Still, the PLA’s own elite units have yet to conduct any operations of note at home, let alone abroad. Nor has China yet established the high-level integration of space, air, ground and other forces that is needed for such operations, despite reforms that Mr Xi introduced more than a decade ago to achieve that. So China is likely to scrutinise America’s raid on Caracas, just as it has studied other significant foreign operations with potential relevance to Taiwan, including the D-Day landings and the Falklands war.
Taiwan will likewise be hungry for insight into the American raid. Its armed forces are better equipped and trained than Venezuela’s. But they have long worried about Chinese decapitation strikes, potentially involving sleeper agents already in Taiwan. Hsu Szu-chien, the island’s deputy defence minister, told reporters on January 5th that Taiwan’s armed forces had protocols to respond to various types of Chinese aggression. Those included the so-called Wan Chun plan to protect the president, details of which are secret. The Venezuela raid showed the importance of strengthening preparedness and ensuring weapons are upgraded and maintained, he said, linking the episode to his government’s recent efforts to boost defence spending—blocked by the opposition.
One detail of particular interest to Taiwan is the apparent failure of Venezuela’s Chinese-made JY-27 air-surveillance radars. Their manufacturer describes them as jam-resistant, and Chinese state media have claimed they can detect incoming missiles and advanced stealthy aircraft, including America’s F-22 fighter jets. Though the radar’s failure in Venezuela may have been due to poor maintenance, operator error or even sabotage, any suggestion that America exploited a weakness could affect China’s perception of its own vulnerability in a Taiwan conflict. Versions of the same radars also protect the mainland.
Operation nations
But perhaps more significant for both sides is what the Venezuela operation says about the Trump administration’s willingness to use force and its new focus on the western hemisphere. Taiwanese officials suggested that it could deter China by demonstrating America’s willingness to deploy military might against autocracies. On the other hand, mainland officials may be quietly encouraged by Mr Trump’s suggestion that his next targets could be Mexico, Colombia—or even Greenland. That does not necessarily mean giving Mr Xi carte blanche on Taiwan. But if America is bogged down in its own backyard, China could reap the benefits all the same. ■
中美兩國皆從美國突襲委內瑞拉中汲取教訓
這不會改變中國的盤算，但卻是「斬首」行動的案例研究
2026年1月8日 | 台北 | 閱讀時間 4 分鐘
中國大眾已經習慣看到其武裝部隊展示新式武器、在非洲進行維和巡邏，或在爭議領土（特別是台灣）周邊進行精密的演習。但 45 歲以下的人，幾乎沒人親歷過中國對另一國採取真正的軍事行動；而經歷過 1979 年中越戰爭的長輩 (1979年中國因邊境衝突及不滿越南入侵柬埔寨，發動「對越自衛反擊戰」。解放軍攻入越南北部，雙方死傷慘重；中方宣稱達到目標後撤軍，此後兩國在邊境對峙多年。)，多數也寧願遺忘那場被越南擊退的往事。因此，當美國戲劇性地在夜間將尼古拉斯·馬杜洛（Nicolás Maduro）從委內瑞拉帶走時，許多中國人感到震驚且目不轉睛。
中國政府迅速譴責了這次突襲，但相關細節與討論在網路上廣泛流傳。在民族主義色彩濃厚的評論中，也出現了一個共同的疑問：這是否能成為中國攻擊台灣的範本？ 同樣的想法在台灣和美國也被提出，一些知名人士主張，這次突襲可能為中國領導人習近平發動——並合法化——對台攻擊開創先例。
事實上，馬杜洛的被捕可能對中國應對台灣的方式影響甚微。在說法上，中國官員已開始利用這次行動，強化其長期以來將美國形塑為「全球霸權」及「國際法慣犯破壞者」的形象。然而，川普政府的法律依據對中國來說並不重要。更貼切地說，中國至今未發動攻擊，並非擔心國際譴責，而是出於自身軍事限制以及對美國可能介入的擔憂。
即便如此，中台雙方仍能從中汲取教訓。中國特種部隊多年來一直在籌劃對台灣領導層進行「斬首」行動。2015 年，中國中央電視台揭露解放軍（PLA）在內蒙古沙漠建造了台灣總統府的模擬建築以練習進攻。根據日本智庫去年 10 月取得的衛星影像，該訓練場自 2020 年以來已擴大三倍，並增建了台灣其他部會的模型。自烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基成功號召抵抗俄羅斯入侵後，中國對斬首行動的關注顯然有所加強。
近期中國在台灣周邊的軍事演習也納入了斬首演練。最近一次在 12 月 29 日至 30 日的演習中，涉及數十艘軍艦、軍機及遠程火箭，模擬了封鎖及防止外國勢力干預的行動。根據中國國防大學張弛大校的說法，他們還演練了針對「台獨分子」的打擊。
然而，中國僅僅殺害或抓捕台灣總統賴清德是不夠的，因為這會留下擁有明確繼任順序的政府運作體系。因此，解放軍很可能將斬首行動視為更大規模行動（可能是全面入侵）的一部分。
儘管如此，解放軍的精銳部隊尚未在國內執行過任何顯著行動，更不用說在海外。儘管習近平十多年前就推動改革以實現軍事轉型，但中國尚未建立起執行此類操作所需的高度太空、空域、地面及其他力量的整合。因此，中國很可能會仔細研究美國對卡拉卡斯的突襲，就像他們研究其他與台灣衝突相關的國外行動一樣（如諾曼第登陸和福克蘭戰爭）。
台灣同樣渴望從這次美國突襲中獲得洞察。台灣武裝部隊的裝備與訓練雖優於委內瑞拉，但長期以來一直擔憂中國的斬首攻擊，且可能涉及已潛伏在台灣的臥底特務。台灣國防部副部長徐斯儉於 1 月 5 日告訴記者，軍方已有應對各類侵略的預案，其中包括保護總統的「萬鈞計畫」（細節屬機密）。他表示，委內瑞拉突襲事件顯示了加強戒備及確保武器更新維護的重要性，並藉此聯繫政府近期提升國防預算的努力——儘管目前仍遭到在野黨阻撓。
台灣特別感興趣的一個細節是：委內瑞拉所使用的中國製 JY-27 防空雷達顯然失效了。製造商宣稱該雷達具備抗干擾能力，中國官媒曾吹噓其能偵測導彈及先進隱形戰機（包括美國的 F-22）。儘管在委內瑞拉的失敗可能是由於維護不良、人為疏失甚至內部破壞，但任何關於美國利用漏洞的暗示，都可能影響中國對自身在台灣衝突中脆弱性的評估。同款型號的雷達也負責保衛中國大陸。
行動國家
但對雙方而言，更具深遠意義的或許是：這次委內瑞拉行動展現了川普政府使用武力的意願，以及對西半球的新焦點。台灣官員暗示，這可能透過展示美國對獨裁政權部署軍事力量的決心，進而威懾中國。
另一方面，中國官員則可能因川普暗示下一個目標可能是墨西哥、哥倫比亞甚至格陵蘭而暗自感到鼓舞。這並不代表習近平在台灣問題上得到了「空白支票」，但如果美國被拖入自家後院的泥淖，中國仍可能從中獲利。
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