Show notes
How Japan’s prime minister will use her massive new mandate
A remarkable election victory that will reshape Japanese politics for years to come
Feb 8th 2026|TOKYO|4 min read
TAKAICHI SANAE gambled her position as Japan’s prime minister by calling a snap election. Her bet has paid off. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) triumphed on February 8th. The LDP won a commanding two-thirds supermajority in parliament’s powerful lower house, even without the support of its coalition partner. The result gives Ms Takaichi, who is both a fiscal dove and a security hawk, a massive mandate, while marking the LDP’s return to unquestioned dominance in Japanese politics.
Such a resounding victory was hardly guaranteed. Although Ms Takaichi herself has been unusually popular since taking office last October, her party remained far less so. The result shows that Ms Takaichi’s personal appeal is a potent force. Together with its partner, the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), and several allied independents, the LDP’s ruling coalition entered the election with 233 seats in the 465-seat chamber, for a majority of just one. They have secured 352. The LDP also benefited from the collapse of the mainstream left-of-centre opposition: the Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA), formed by the merger of two long-standing parties, lost more than half of the total seats they had held heading into the election. While several smaller upstart parties secured footholds in the Diet, none is strong enough to challenge the LDP.
The LDP has lost power only twice since its foundation in 1955. **Following a turbulent period **of opposition rule in 2009-12, the party reclaimed its dominance under Ms Takaichi’s mentor, Abe Shinzo, the prime minister until 2020. But in recent years, it has stumbled from scandal to scandal; in the two most recent elections, an upper-house contest last summer and a lower-house vote in October 2024, the party lost its majorities, leaving it leading a minority government. The LDP turned to Ms Takaichi as party leader in October. She brought in Ishin as a new partner, producing a slender majority.
Ms Takaichi has appealed to voters eager for change, or at least the appearance of it. The country’s first female prime minister, she has cut a welcome contrast to previous ones, thanks to her middle-class upbringing and plain-spoken style. A former heavy-metal drummer, she has performed confidently on the world stage, including with Donald Trump, the leader of Japan’s most important ally. (Mr Trump endorsed Ms Takaichi ahead of the election.) A diplomatic spat with China helped her to consolidate support at home. Her big-spending pledges have at times caused bond markets to shudder, but tend to appeal to voters.
On the campaign trail, Ms Takaichi electrified audiences. She lived up to her pledge to “work, work, work, work, work”: during the 12-day election period, she covered more ground than any other party leader, racking up 12,480km, according to a tally by Yomiuri, a newspaper. She also dragged her fusty party into the digital era, becoming a force on social media. The hastily-assembled CRA, meanwhile, failed to inspire. Combining the Constitutional Democratic Party (the successor to the country’s historic main centre-left outfit, the Democratic Party of Japan), and the LDP’s former coalition partner, Komeito, produced a muddle rather than synergy. Online, the party acquired the unflattering nickname “5G”, a play on the Japanese word for “old man”, oji-san, in reference to the fact that its top leaders were all older male political dinosaurs.
The remarkable election result will reshape Japanese politics for years to come. The leaders of the CRA will probably resign; whether the alliance itself survives remains unclear. Smaller leftist parties also suffered big losses, suggesting that voters see their ideological pacifism as out of step with today’s turbulent world. Upstart parties have proven more dynamic than the traditional opposition. The far-right Do It Yourself party (Sanseito) picked up a handful of seats, albeit fewer than they had targeted. Team Future (Mirai), a techno-optimist party founded in May, was a surprise breakout, emerging as an alternative for many independent voters, and winning 11 seats.
With its imposing new majority, the LDP will be able to ignore opposition sniping. Ms Takaichi will emerge from the election stronger and bolder. Potential challengers inside the party will fall silent, leaving her to rule for the foreseeable future. With a supermajority in the lower house, the ruling coalition will be able to control the legislative process, as it can override the more fractious upper house (where it lacks a majority).
Ms Takaichi can also pursue her preferred policies. She has pledged a “responsible and proactive fiscal policy”, including a temporary two-year cut to the consumption tax for food and big investments in industrial policy to support critical industries. She also wants to spearhead more reforms to strengthen Japan’s armed forces and security apparatus. She has called for lifting restrictions on arms exports to help boost Japan’s defence industry; she favours the creation of a new national intelligence agency. The fly in the ointment? Though Ms Takaichi has made quick work of her domestic political foes, other adversaries, from bond market vigilantes to her counterparts in Beijing, will not prove so easy to overcome. ■
日本首相將如何運用她的龐大民意授權：一場將重塑未來數年日本政壇的重大選舉勝利
2026年2月8日 | 東京 | 閱讀時間約4分鐘
高市早苗以解散國會提前改選，賭上了她的日本首相寶座。事實證明，她賭贏了。執政的自由民主黨（LDP）於 2 月 8 日贏得大勝。自民黨在權力核心的眾議院中，即便不依賴聯盟夥伴的支持，也單獨拿下了具備主導權的三分之二「超級多數」席位。此結果賦予了兼具「財政鴿派」與「國安鷹派」色彩的高市女士極大的民意授權，同時標誌著自民黨重返在日本政壇無可置疑的霸權地位。
如此輝煌的勝利絕非預料中的必然。儘管高市女士自去年 10 月就任以來展現了罕見的高人氣，但她所屬的政黨卻沒那麼受歡迎。選舉結果顯示，高市女士的個人魅力是一股強大的政治力量。自民黨與其夥伴「日本維新會」（Ishin）以及幾位盟軍獨立人士組成的執政聯盟，在選前於 465 席的眾議院中僅佔 233 席，僅比過半數多出一席；而選後，他們成功奪下 352 席。
自民黨的獲勝也受惠於主流中間偏左反對陣營的潰敗：由兩大長期在野黨合併組成的「中間改革聯盟」（CRA），失去了選前持有席位的一半以上。雖然幾支新興小黨在國會取得立足點，但目前尚無足夠力量挑戰自民黨。
自 1955 年成立以來，自民黨僅失去過兩次政權。在 2009 年至 2012 年動盪的在野時期後，該黨在高市女士的導師安倍晉三帶領下奪回統治地位。然而近年來，自民黨深陷各類醜聞；在去年夏天的參議院選舉及 2024 年 10 月的眾議院投票中，該黨皆失去多數優勢，只能領導少數政府。去年 10 月，自民黨轉向推舉高市女士為黨魁，她引入維新會作為新夥伴，勉力維持微弱的多數。
高市女士成功吸引了渴望改變（或至少是改變的表象）的選民。作為日本首位女性首相，她憑藉中產階級的出身與直爽的言論風格，與過往的首相形成鮮明對比。這位前重金屬鼓手在國際舞台上表現自信，包括與日本最重要的盟友領導人唐納德·川普（Donald Trump）的互動（川普在選前曾公開支持高市）。此外，與中國的外交糾紛也有助於她在國內鞏固支持。雖然她擴大支出的承諾一度令債券市場感到不安，但這對選民極具吸引力。
在競選期間，高市女士令觀眾熱血沸騰。她實踐了自己「工作、工作、工作、工作、工作」的諾言：根據《讀賣新聞》統計，在為期 12 天的競選期內，她奔波的路程超過任何其他黨魁，總計達 12,480 公里。她還將保守陳腐的自民黨帶入數位時代，成為社群媒體上的重要勢力。相比之下，倉促組成的「中間改革聯盟」則未能激發選民熱情。由立憲民主黨（其前身為日本史上主要的中間偏左勢力民主黨）與自民黨前盟友公明黨合併，產生的只有混亂而非綜效。在網路上，該聯盟獲得了「5G」這個帶有貶義的綽號，這是對日語「大叔」（Oji-san）的戲稱，諷刺該聯盟的高層領袖全都是年長的男性政治恐龍。
這場卓越的選舉結果將重塑未來數年的日本政治。「中間改革聯盟」的領袖們可能會辭職，該聯盟能否維持仍是未知數。其他小型左翼政黨也遭受重創，顯示選民認為其意識形態上的和平主義與當今動盪的世界脫節。新興政黨展現出比傳統在野黨更強的活力。極右翼的「參政黨」（Sanseito）獲得了少數席位，儘管少於其預期目標。於去年 5 月成立、主張科技樂觀主義的「未來隊」（Mirai）則成為異軍突出的黑馬，成為許多獨立選民的替代選擇，並贏得了 11 個席位。
憑藉龐大的新多數優勢，自民黨將能忽視反對黨的抨擊。高市女士將在選後變得更強大、更果敢。黨內潛在的挑戰者將會噤聲，讓她在可預見的未來掌握統治權。擁有眾議院的超級多數後，執政聯盟將能掌控立法進程，因為它有權推翻意見紛歧的參議院（執政聯盟在參議院尚無多數）。
高市女士也可以推行她偏好的政策。她已承諾實施「負責且積極的財政政策」，包括為期兩年的糧食消費稅減免，以及對關鍵產業的大規模工業投資。她還希望帶頭進行更多改革，以加強日本的武裝部隊與安全機構。她呼籲放寬武器出口限制以提振日本國防工業，並贊成建立新的國家情報機構。唯一的隱憂在於：雖然高市女士迅速擊敗了國內的政敵，但其他對手——從債券市場的「糾察隊」到北京的領導層——可能不會那麼容易被克服。■
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