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How Poland can keep its place at the heart of Europe
If it turns inward, the country and continent will lose out
May 22nd 2025|5 min read
TWICE IT** VANISHED** from the map, swallowed up by its rapacious neighbours. After it emerged from the second world war as a Soviet satellite, it endured decades of oppression. Today, Poland has transformed itself into Europe’s most overlooked military and economic power—with a bigger army than Britain, France or Germany and living standards, adjusted for purchasing power, that are about to eclipse Japan’s. Yet, just when Poland should stand proud and tall once more, is it about to throw away its influence?
That is the question Poles face in the decisive run-off vote to elect their president on June 1st. One vision, from the candidate of the Law and Justice (PiS) party, is a brand of right-wing nationalism that feeds off conflict with Poland’s neighbours and the European Union. The other, from the centre, is that, in a dangerous world, Poland needs Europe to magnify its strengths, just as Europe needs Poland as a source of security and economic dynamism. Unfortunately, at the moment the right may have the upper hand.
For the past three decades, Poland has shown how much a country can achieve by European integration and good economic policy. Since 1995 income per person has more than trebled. Since it joined the EU in 2004 Poland has never known recession apart from briefly at the height of the covid-19 shutdown. During those two decades, its average annual growth has been almost 4%.
The fruits of that growth are on display across the country. Warsaw, the capital, boasts Europe’s tallest building outside Russia, the Varso tower; and below it bustles with designer shops and cafés, IT startups and fashion houses. Out in the once-neglected countryside fine roads, often built with EU money, criss-cross vistas of well-tended fields, farms and new houses.
Poles used to flock abroad to find work, but for some years now home has been a stronger draw. Manufacturing is booming, thanks to Poland’s proximity to Germany, continuing to do well even as its western neighbour, like much of Europe, has stagnated. When Germany, under its new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, starts a planned new burst of infrastructure and defence spending, Poland is likely to be a beneficiary.
Long attuned to the threat from Russia, Poland has used its wealth to enhance its security. It now musters the largest army in Europe after Russia, Ukraine and Turkey, and the third-largest in NATO. It spends well over 4% of its GDP each year on defence, far above the 2% that has been the NATO target since 2014, and plans to raise that to over 5% next year.
This has translated into influence. These days the group that counts in European security is sometimes dubbed the four musketeers: the young addition to Britain, France and Germany is Poland, like the superlative swordsman d’Artagnan. Tellingly, its prime minister, Donald Tusk, travelled to Kyiv earlier this month with his three counterparts to stress that Europe is ready to stand by Ukraine even as America’s commitment has weakened. Poland’s stance is in sharp distinction to the rest of the “Visegrad Four”. Hungary under Viktor Orban and Slovakia under Robert Fico have both taken the side of Russia rather than Ukraine; and the Czech Republic is expected to tilt in that direction after elections in October.
Given Poland’s record, much of it achieved during the total of ten years in which PiS has been in power, you might conclude that it could continue its renaissance with either candidate in June’s run-off election—especially as the role of president in Poland is less powerful than that of prime minister. However, that would be a mistake.
Under the constitution, the president’s veto can be overridden only by a three-fifths majority in the Sejm, the lower house, which Mr Tusk does not command. The current president, Andrzej Duda, is a former PiS politician who has blocked or delayed many of the new government’s reforms and is now termed out. PiS wants his successor to be Karol Nawrocki, a fierce ideologue who would be even less accommodating than Mr Duda. Mr Nawrocki is almost certain to use his powers to block Mr Tusk’s agenda, so as to pave the way for a PiS victory in the next parliamentary elections. To win the presidency, he would depend on support from far-right parties that exploit growing anti-Ukrainian feelings; one is openly antisemitic.
This matters because Mr Tusk is trying to unravel PiS’s capture of the state while it was most recently in office, from 2015 to 2023. In that time, while pursuing mostly sensible economic and security policies, PiS systematically took over independent institutions, including the judiciary, the media, the civil service, the central bank and the banking system. PiS’s fights with Brussels over the rule of law caused Poland to be temporarily shut out of some of the EU’s aid programmes.
By contrast, Mr Tusk is a committed European—he previously served as the president of the European Council in Brussels. Under him Poland has co-operated with other European countries on security, diplomacy and defence to the benefit of all. Were Poles to use the presidential election to vote in Rafal Trzaskowski, a Tusk ally who is Warsaw’s mayor, EU co-operation would be easier and Poland’s influence would grow further.
The world has changed since Mr Tusk took over. With another Donald back in the White House, the task of building up Europe’s strategic autonomy is not just a luxury but an urgent necessity. Poland could not only set an example in security, but also serve as a powerful voice for supporting Ukraine and deterring Russia. Economically, Poland is an example to central and eastern European countries; and Mr Tusk could be a proponent of the economic reforms the EU desperately needs.
Don’t throw it away
Next week’s election is finely balanced. In the first round the candidates of the hard right took around 52% of the vote. Were Mr Nawrocki to win the second round, both Poland and Europe would suffer. Europe would lose a source of dynamism, and Poland would risk losing the place at the heart of Europe it has worked so hard to claim.
波蘭如何守住其歐洲核心地位
若轉向內化，該國與歐洲大陸都將面臨損失
2025年5月22日 | 閱讀時間 5 分鐘
波蘭曾兩度從地圖上消失，被貪婪的鄰國吞併。在第二次世界大戰後成為蘇聯衛星國，經歷了數十年的壓迫。如今，波蘭已轉型為歐洲最被忽視的軍事與經濟強權——其軍隊規模大於英國、法國或德國，且經購買力平價調整後的生活水平即將超越日本。然而，正當波蘭應該再次昂首挺胸之際，它是否即將拋棄自己的影響力？
這正是波蘭人在 6 月 1 日舉行的關鍵總統選舉第二輪投票中所面臨的問題。一種願景來自法律與公正黨（PiS）的候選人，這是一種以與鄰國及歐盟衝突為養分的右翼民族主義；另一種則來自中間派，認為在危險的世界中，波蘭需要歐洲來放大其實力，正如歐洲需要波蘭作為安全與經濟活力的來源。不幸的是，目前右翼可能佔據上風。
在過去的三十年裡，波蘭展示了一個國家透過歐洲整合和良好的經濟政策能取得多少成就。自 1995 年以來，人均收入增長了三倍多。自 2004 年加入歐盟以來，除了在新冠肺炎停擺的高峰期短暫出現過衰退外，波蘭從未經歷過經濟衰退。在這二十年間，其年均增長率幾乎達到 4%。
經濟增長的成果在全國各地隨處可見。首都華沙擁有俄羅斯以外歐洲最高的建築物——華沙塔（Varso tower）；塔下則是熙熙攘攘的設計師商店、咖啡館、資訊科技新創公司和時裝店。在曾經被忽視的農村，通常由歐盟資金修建的優質公路縱橫交錯，映襯著整齊的田野、農場和新房屋。
波蘭人曾成群結隊地出國找工作，但幾年來，家鄉的吸引力已變得更強。製造業蓬勃發展，這得益於波蘭鄰近德國的優勢，即使其西方鄰國（與歐洲大部分地區一樣）處於停滯狀態，波蘭仍能持續表現良好。當德國在其新任總理弗里德里希·梅爾茨（Friedrich Merz）的領導下，開始計劃中的新一輪基礎設施和國防開支衝刺時，波蘭很可能成為受益者。
波蘭長期以來一直對俄羅斯的威脅保持警惕，並利用其財富來增強安全。它現在擁有的軍隊規模在歐洲僅次於俄羅斯、烏克蘭和土耳其，在北約中排名第三。波蘭每年將超過 GDP 的 4% 用於國防，遠高於北約自 2014 年以來設定的 2% 目標，並計劃明年將這一比例提高到 5% 以上。
這轉化成了影響力。如今，在歐洲安全領域發揮作用的集團有時被稱為「四個火槍手」：繼英國、法國和德國之後的年輕新成員就是波蘭，就像那位卓越的劍客達太安（d’Artagnan）。值得注意的是，波蘭總理唐納德·圖斯克（Donald Tusk）本月早些時候與其他三位同行一起前往基輔，強調即使美國的承諾有所減弱，歐洲也準備好支持烏克蘭。波蘭的立場與「維謝格拉德集團」（Visegrad Four）的其他成員形成了鮮明對比：維克多·奧班領導下的匈牙利和羅伯特·費科領導下的斯洛伐克都站在俄羅斯而非烏克蘭一邊；而捷克共和國預計在 10 月選舉後也會轉向該方向。
鑑於波蘭的紀錄（其中大部分是在 PiS 執政的累計十年中取得的），你可能會得出結論：無論 6 月份的第二輪選舉中哪位候選人勝出，波蘭都能繼續其復興——特別是波蘭總統的角色權力不如總理。然而，那將是一個錯誤。
根據憲法，總統的否決權只能由下議院（Sejm）五分之三的多數票推翻，而圖斯克先生並不具備這種優勢。現任總統安傑伊·杜達（Andrzej Duda）曾是 PiS 的政治人物，他阻撓或延遲了許多新政府的改革，現在即將卸任。PiS 希望他的繼任者是卡羅爾·納夫羅茨基（Karol Nawrocki），他是一位激進的意識形態家，會比杜達先生更不配合。納夫羅茨基幾乎肯定會利用他的權力來阻止圖斯克先生的議程，以便為 PiS 在下一次議會選舉中獲勝鋪路。為了贏得總統職位，他將依賴極右翼政黨的支持，這些政黨利用日益增長的反烏克蘭情緒，其中一個政黨甚至是公開的反猶太主義。
這之所以重要，是因為圖斯克先生正試圖清理 PiS 在 2015 年至 2023 年執政期間對國家的掌控。在那段時間裡，PiS 在奉行大多合理的經濟和安全政策的同時，系統性地接管了獨立機構，包括司法機構、媒體、公務員體系、中央銀行和銀行系統。PiS 與布魯塞爾在法治問題上的爭鬥，曾導致波蘭暫時被排除在歐盟的一些援助計劃之外。
相比之下，圖斯克先生是一位堅定的親歐人士——他此前曾擔任布魯塞爾歐洲理事會主席。在他領導下，波蘭在安全、外交和國防方面與其他歐洲國家合作，惠及所有人。如果波蘭人利用這次總統選舉投票給拉法烏·特扎斯科夫斯基（Rafal Trzaskowski，圖斯克的盟友，現任華沙市長），歐盟合作將變得更加容易，波蘭的影響力也將進一步增長。
自圖斯克先生接任以來，世界已經發生了變化。隨著另一位「唐納德」（指川普）回到白宮，建立歐洲戰略自主的任務不再是奢侈品，而是迫在眉睫的必然。波蘭不僅可以在安全方面樹立榜樣，還可以成為支持烏克蘭和威懾俄羅斯的強大聲音。在經濟上，波蘭是中東歐國家的典範；圖斯克先生可以成為歐盟迫切需要的經濟改革支持者。
不要拋棄它
下週的選舉勢均力敵。在第一輪投票中，硬右派候選人獲得了約 52% 的選票。如果納夫羅茨基先生在第二輪獲勝，波蘭和歐洲都將受苦。歐洲將失去一個活力的源泉，而波蘭將面臨失去它努力爭取到的歐洲核心地位的風險。
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