Aaron Back
speaker
279 appearances
6 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2018
last heard Jul 2019
Aaron Back’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
So, you know, there's a big debate right now who's right.
The bond markets have a pretty good track record of predicting this.
So right now, short-term rates are much higher than long-term rates.
That's called an inverted yield curve.
In the past, it's been a pretty reliable indicator of a recession coming.
Now, recession could come in six months.
It could come in a year and a half.
It's hard to say exactly.
But the bond markets are forecasting a recession.
And in my view, the bond markets have a good track record of predicting this.
My pleasure.
Yeah, the concern is that we're kind of past the peak in the economy.
Not that things are terrible, but that things are going to start slowing down.
And there is some evidence of that in the bank earnings.
Most notably, JP Morgan, which reported on Tuesday, had loan growth of just 1% in commercial and industrial loans, which is its main business loan book.
And as recently as 2017, that was running around 7%, 8%.
So there's been a real slowdown.
And they say, you know, that's partially because we're being codified.
We're picking and choosing where we want to loan.
It's partially because GDP growth is slowing.
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