Aaron David Miller
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
to basically two sorts of understandings that the cessation of hostilities would be conditional on Iran's willingness, ability, not to manage the Straits of Hormuz, but to open them.
This got loaded down with all sorts of preconditions.
The Iranians wanted the Israelis to stop their military activities in Lebanon.
They came back with proposals to unfreeze frozen assets.
So it got all gummed up.
There was absolutely no way, slim to none, chance
that the vice president in 21 hours, or frankly, 21 days, could have come up with a workable end to this war.
And we are no closer to that end after these failed negotiations.
I think you broke the code, Dave.
I mean, this is one of the several boxes that the president in a sort of own goal, self-inflicted wound has created.
I mean, several days ago, he faced an unpalatable choice, right?
This extraordinarily insane, inappropriate decision.
Threat public social media to destroy civilization, you know, within a matter of hours.
That was one option.
And had he gone through that, the Iranians would have responded against Gulf infrastructure, desal plants, electricity grids, tourist sites, oil infrastructures, or the president could have backed down.
He had a lifeline, which the Pakistanis helped him create.
And I think the Americans also helped shape this particular proposal.
So that is a box which offered a pathway out with the negotiations in Islamabad.
But now the box, frankly, remains.