Adam Posen
speaker
1,220 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Aug 2025
last heard 1 Sep
Adam Posen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.
Appearances
And where you see it is where we're already seeing it in the US, which is you see it in a slightly higher risk premium on long term government bonds.
You see it in weakening of the currency.
And you know, some of this I think can be tied to the broader
Again, I sorry to keep coming back to that, but to the broader Trump economic agenda, as both of you said, it is a real regime change.
But we're seeing it already.
And so there's a chart in this foreign affairs article, The New Economic Geography I put out.
Thank you again.
that does a simple version of something a lot of economists, ec academics have done more sophisticated versions, which is basically
The correlations on the dollar have reversed.
Right.
That with a couple of interruptions in two thousand eight in the late seventies, early eighties.
The dollar has the quality that when it gets into trouble, more money flows into it.
And even if the US is causing a problem in the world, people believe they're safer in the US than two thousand eight was the ultimate example.
Two thousand eight was the ultimate example.
Dollar adjusts down, but basically treasury bond rates and dollar move in lockstep, which is another way of saying they don't have to put up the rates to defend the dollar.
Uh and it also means that
Most of the movement in the dollar day to day is just macro news, just day to day news.
And so putting it simple mindedly, there's a correlation.
Very strongly positive in intraday intraweek data between the dollar and the ten year treasury rate until April what?
April one of this year, that correlation shifts from plus zero point eight to minus zero point four.
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